Download or read book Bull and bear markets in the twentieth century written by Robert B. Barsky and published by . This book was released on 1989 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Bull and Bear Markets in the Twentieth Century written by Robert Barsky and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page 26 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The major bull and bear markets of this century have suggested to many that large decade-to-decade stock market swings reflect irrational quot;fads and fashionsquot; that periodically sweep investors. We argue instead that investors have perceived significant shifts in the long-run mean rate of future dividend growth. and that stock prices depend sufficiently sensitively on expectations about the underlying future growth rate that these perceived shifts would plausibly generate large swings like those of the twentieth century. We go on to document that analysts who have often been viewed as quot;smart moneyquot; held assessments of fundamental values based on their perceptions of future economic growth and technological progress: the judgments of these analysts, like the assessments of fundamentals we generate from simple dividend growth forecasting rules, track the major decade-to-decade swings in the market rather closely.

Download or read book Bull and Bear Markets in the Twentieth Century written by Robert B. Barsky and published by . This book was released on 1989 with total page 18 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Bull and Bear Markets in the Twentieth Century written by and published by . This book was released on 1989 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Bulls and Bears The Rise and Fall of the Stock Markets at the Turn of the 21st Century written by Beate Gansauge and published by GRIN Verlag. This book was released on 2009-05 with total page 29 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Seminar paper from the year 2004 in the subject American Studies - Culture and Applied Geography, grade: 1,0 (A), Dresden Technical University (American Studies), language: English, abstract: This paper aims to collect opinions on the development of the stock markets since the 1990s. People from varying fields and backgrounds have written about the recent situation of the economy. First, there are economists like Yale professor Robert J. Shiller, whose book Irrational Exuberance coincided with the bursting of the bubble in 2000. Then there is political analyst Kevin Phillips who reconstructs and discusses the boom and decline of the markets in a political and historical context in Wealth and Democracy: A Political History of the American Rich, or radical journalist Alexander Cockburn whose articles for publications like The New York Press and The Nation focus on the aspects of corporate fraud and the politics behind the market dilemma. Others, like financial economists Robert E. Hall and Alan Reynolds reject the idea of bubbles and argue that the recent decline of the stock markets is merely part of a normal economy cycle that may be derived from historical context as well as from mathematical equation.

Download or read book Market Magic written by Louise Yamada and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 1998-03-03 with total page 280 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In Zeiten der Ungewißheit und volatiler Märkte sind private Investoren und Anlageexperten oft ratlos, wenn es darum geht, die Ausrichtung des Marktes zu erkennen: Geht es rauf, runter, seitwärts und wie lange hält dieser Trend an? Viele Anlagegurus geben Ratschläge zur Situation am Anlagemarkt, aber keiner von ihnen liefert so exakte Daten aufgrund umfangreicher Researcharbeit wie Louise Yamada. Sie ist sehr bekannt und wird geschätzt für ihre überzeugenden und interessanten Research Reports, in denen sie verschiedene Analysetechniken kombiniert, um genaue Prognosen und außergewöhnliche Vorhersagen zu machen. Market Magic ist eine gut durchdachte Untersuchung der Researchergebnisse von Louise Yamada, die dieses Buch zu einer wichtigen Lektüre macht. Es vermittelt Hintergrundinformationen zur Geschichte des Aktienmarktes, Rentenmarktes und der Zinsentwicklung, um so den Rahmen für die Analyse der aktuellen Gegebenheiten zu liefern. Das gegenwärtige Marktgeschehen wird unter dem Aspekt vergleichbarer historischer Situationen betrachtet, wobei auch die zugrundeliegende Makrostruktur inklusive Marktverhalten, demographische Daten, Technologie und Inflation Berücksichtigung finden. (01/98)

Download or read book The Time Varying Equity Premium and Secular Bull and Bear Markets of the Twentieth Century written by Mark C. Freeman and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 54 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Low frequency Samp;P 500 index returns over the twentieth century are explained using an asset pricing model in which a time-varying equity premium is driven by regime changes in aggregate consumption volatility.By allowing the equity premium to vary between 3.5% and 8%, depending on perceived consumption risk at the time, the asset pricing model in this paper is better able to match the magnitude of all seven secular bull and bear markets of the last century than a fixed equity premium model. The paper also rejects the notion of significant excess volatility in market returns at annual frequency.The model is especially successful for the period from 1897-1965. There is particularly clear evidence that perceived consumption risk fell dramatically in the 1920s, rose during the Great Depression and fell again following World War II. Both the direction and scale of the secular bull and bear markets that occurred at these times are consistent with the model in this paper.Because of the difficulty of accurately measuring aggregate consumption data in the early twentieth century, there is a possibility that estimated changes in consumption volatility during the 1897-1965 period do not reflect real shifts in macroeconomic risk. To address this concern, the main calibrations in this paper are based on average household income data for the highest income families; a series that is consistently estimated throughout the period. This also allows for the observation that stockholders have historically been those with greatest wealth and income. The results of the paper are broadly consistent whether income or consumption data is used.The main remaining anomaly is the secular bear market of 1966-1981, which is not related to any obviously observed increase in aggregate risk. The end of century bull market appears to represent a return to more natural market levels. This conclusion is strengthened if the well-documented decline in macroeconomic risk in the 1990s is associated with a further fall in the equity premium to 2.5%.The main implication of this paper is that, at the end of the twentieth century, the equity premium lay at very low levels compared to its historic average; most probably in the range 2.5% - 3.5%. The main decline in this variable occurred in the period following World War II, with a further fall in the 1990s being of secondary importance.

Download or read book The Time varying Equity Premium and Secular Bull and Bear Markets of the Twentieth Century written by Mark Freeman (professor.) and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 55 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Defining and Dating Bull and Bear Markets written by Liliana Gonzalez and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 36 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Despite widespread media interest in bull and bear markets, academic research that seeks to formally define bull markets is almost non-existent. This paper defines bull and bear markets in relation to a simple model of mean return regimes, and implements the definition using two formal turning point detection methods to demonstrate that two centuries of stock index returns can be separated into economically and statistically significant bull and bear market states. In-sample analysis of the turning points identified by the detection procedures is consistent with a two-state mean return model, a result that has important implications for capital asset pricing theory.

Download or read book Fear Greed and the End of the Rainbow written by Andrew Sarlos and published by . This book was released on 1997 with total page 196 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: For fifteen years the bull has wrestled the bear into submission. But I am convinced that the bear's time will come. This century began with a bear market, which started in December of 1899 and hit bottom in June 1900, and it could very well end with one too. -- Andrew SarlosNorth Americans are frenetic about stocks, convinced the markets have nowhere to go but up. Each month, more and more novice investors pull their money out of stagnant bank accounts and low-interest GICs and plough them into mutual funds and similar investments. No one wants to be left out in the cold.As we approach the end of the twentieth century, the stock markets are enjoying an unprecedented period of growth and prosperity. Since the start of this most recent bull market, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has recorded an extraordinary 800 per cent gain. In just two short years, it has smashed through the 4000, 5000, 6000 and 7000 barriers. But the market is increasingly volatile, swinging up and down from week to week.In Fear, Greed and the End of the Rainbow, Andrew Sarlos sounds a prescient alarm. History tells us, he says, that the market is based on a cycle of upswings and downswings, and that now the market is about to turn once again. By examining statistical data such as history and market trends, Sarlos makes a convincing argument for a coming market correction of immense proportions. He predicts this inevitable bear market will last into the next millennium.Those lucky enough to heed Sarlos's warnings, however, will be able to avoid what could be the biggest mistake of their investment careers. By protecting your money and preparing for the future, Sarlos shows you how not only tosurvive, but to prosper through the next stock market crash.Fear, Greed and the End of the Rainbow is arguably one of the best financial books of the late 20th century.... -- Quill & Quire...a provocative, immensely readable book. It's an essential for every investor. -- Quill &QuireSarlos' book is level-headed and thoroughly researched. -- Maclean's magazine

Download or read book Dow Theory for the 21st Century written by Jack Schannep and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2008-06-30 with total page 246 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Dow Theory for the 21st Century includes everything that the serious investor needs to know about the stock market and how to become financially successful. Expanding upon Charles Dow's 20th century stock market theory, author Jack Schannep provides readers with a better understanding of the ingredients that make up the world of finance, specifically the American stock market, in order to help them achieve investment success.

Download or read book Anatomy of the Bear written by Russell Napier and published by Harriman House Limited. This book was released on 2016-01-18 with total page 336 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: How does one spot the bottom of a bear market? What brings a bear to its end? There are few more important questions to be answered in modern finance. Financial market history is a guide to understanding the future. Looking at the four occasions when US equities were particularly cheap - 1921, 1932, 1949 and 1982 - Russell Napier sets out to answer these questions by analysing every article in the Wall Street Journal from either side of the market bottom. In the 70,000 articles he examines, one begins to understand the features which indicate that a great buying opportunity is emerging. By looking at how markets really did work in these bear-market bottoms, rather than theorising how they should work, Napier offers investors a financial field guide to making the best provisions for the future. This new edition includes a brand new preface from the author and a foreword by Merryn Somerset Webb.

Download or read book This Time Is Different written by Carmen M. Reinhart and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2011-08-07 with total page 513 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An empirical investigation of financial crises during the last 800 years.

Download or read book How to Make Money in Stocks A Winning System in Good Times or Bad written by William J. O'Neil and published by McGraw Hill Professional. This book was released on 1994-09-22 with total page 282 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: William J. O'Neil's proven investment advice has earned him millions of loyal followers. And his signature bestseller, How to Make Money in Stocks, contains all the guidance readers need on the entire investment processfrom picking a broker to diversifying a portfolio to making a million in mutual funds. For self-directed investors of all ages and expertise, William J. O'Neil's proven CAN SLIM investment strategy is helping those who follow O'Neil to select winning stocks and create a more powerful portfolio. Based on a 40-year study of the most successful stocks of all time, CAN SLIM is an easy-to-use tool for picking the winners and reducing risk in today's volatile economic environment.

Download or read book A Bull in China written by Jim Rogers and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2014-10-09 with total page 262 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Profiting from China without getting burned is currently an obsession with the international investment community. The estimated size of the Chinese economy has just been revised upwards, making it the 4th largest in the world behind the US, Japan and Germany, and ahead of the UK but the idea that investing in China is a sure-fire, get-rich-quick investment story is dangerously misleading. * The author of the bestselling Investment Biker, Adventure Capitalist, and Hot Commodities, is providing a book that provides a window into what will soon be the most vital, most lucrative market of our time: China. * While the Chinese economy has had an annual average growth of 9.4 percent since 1978, and despite the ongoing speculation about China's future, its stock market is now emerging from a six-year low. * As the Chinese economy continues to lumber toward a free market system - and as the Chinese government inevitably unpegs its currency and opens its stock market to more foreign investment, Rogers foresees an abundance of opportunities for investors. * In this book, he shows readers not only how to take advantage of China's coming dominance - what, where, how, and when to buy - but how China will impact individual companies, markets, and economies around the world. * "Nobody with blue eyes has ever made money investing in China," the old saying goes. Jim Rogers aims to disprove this adage. Jim Rogers co-founded the Quantum Fund and retired at age 37. Since then, he has served as a sometime professor of finance at Columbia University's business school, and as a media commentator. He appears twice a week on Fox Business News, and is the author of three immensely successful books.

Download or read book The Bear Book written by John Rothchild and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 1998-04-06 with total page 310 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: October 28, 1997. The Dow drops 500 points. Investors the world over receive a startling reminder that "what goes up, must come down." It is a profoundly unsettling experience for those of us who have either forgotten or have never known the experience of a bear market. Half of the money invested in U.S. stocks in this century entered the market from 1991-1996, making the dark days of October memorable for their bloodletting. Overall, this was just a scratch, and despite the optimism of so many investors, history has shown that the bear attacks time and time again. John Rothchild, critically acclaimed author of the bestselling A Fool and His Money, isn't even afraid to face a full-fledged bear market. In his topical and timely new book, Rothchild reveals how to prepare psychologically and tactically for the looming debacle. Breaking from the pack of investment books which tacitly assume a bull market, The Bear Book focuses on protecting assets and minimizing losses during a bear market and on taking advantage of unique opportunities for profit. With customary flair and style, Rothchild chronicles the long history of bear markets, exploring in detail exactly what constitutes a bear market and how it affects us. Along with his own expertise, the author draws on respected and knowledgeable names such as Jim Rogers, Jim Grant, and Martin Zweig, among a host of prominent investment advisors, strategists, and fund managers. The result is a comprehensive chronicle that deftly and definitively fills the "bearish information gap." John Rothchild's masterful penchant for blending wit, good storytelling, and sound investment analysis makes The Bear Book both informative and vastly entertaining. He distinguishes the characteristics of past bear markets, examining what triggered them, how long they lasted-and why. He probes the unique psychology of bearish investing, concentrating on which types of investments generally do well during a downturn in the market. His often surprising answers to some straightforward, no-nonsense questions clarify, among other key issues, what can happen to mutual funds in a bear market, and exactly what the dangers are of selling short. Of critical importance is Rothchild's overview of the alternatives to stocks, including gold, bonds, and money market funds, as well as tips on what stocks to buy when the market starts to turn bullish again. For historical perspective, The Bear Book also includes a unique and eye-opening account of the Crash of '29 and its survivors. Profiles of prominent bearish investors-Roy Neuberger and Philip Carret, among them-contain illuminating long-term perspectives on the ups and downs of the stock market over the past fifty to seventy-five years. A bracing tonic for investors at all levels of experience, The Bear Book offers a veritable blueprint of the various stages of a typical bear market. It will prove invaluable to those of us who wish to protect our savings -and peace of mind -whenever the market drops.

Download or read book Psychology of the Stock Market written by George Charles Selden and published by . This book was released on 1912 with total page 140 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "This book is based upon the belief that the movements of prices on the exchanges are dependent to a very large degree on the mental attitude of the investing and trading public ... [and] is intended chiefly as a practical help to that considerable part of the community which is interested, directly or indirectly, in the markets.--p. [3]