Download or read book Capital Flows at Risk Taming the Ebbs and Flows written by Mr.R. G Gelos and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-12-20 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The volatility of capital flows to emerging markets continues to pose challenges to policymakers. In this paper, we propose a new framework to answer critical policy questions: What policies and policy frameworks are most effective in dampening sharp capital flow movements in response to global shocks? What are the near- versus medium-term trade-offs of different policies? We tackle these questions using a quantile regression framework to predict the entire future probability distribution of capital flows to emerging markets, based on current domestic structural characteristics, policies, and global financial conditions. This new approach allows policymakers to quantify capital flows risks and evaluate policy tools to mitigate them, thus building the foundation of a risk management framework for capital flows.

Download or read book Managing Volatile Capital Flows Experiences and Lessons for Sub Saharan African Frontier Markets written by Cheikh A. Gueye and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-03-26 with total page 39 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: During the past three years the frontier markets of sub-Saharan Africa have received growing amounts of portfolio capital flows, with heightened interest from foreign investors. Compared with foreign direct investment, portfolio capital flows tend to be more volatile, and thus pose challenges for sub-Saharan African frontier markets. This study examines the evolution of capital flows since 2010 and discusses the policies these countries have designed to reduce risks from the inherent volatility of these flows.

Download or read book Optimal Macroprudential Policy and Asset Price Bubbles written by Nina Biljanovska and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-08-30 with total page 51 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An asset bubble relaxes collateral constraints and increases borrowing by credit-constrained agents. At the same time, as the bubble deflates when constraints start binding, it amplifies downturns. We show analytically and quantitatively that the macroprudential policy should optimally respond to building asset price bubbles non-monotonically depending on the underlying level of indebtedness. If the level of debt is moderate, policy should accommodate the bubble to reduce the incidence of a binding collateral constraint. If debt is elevated, policy should lean against the bubble more aggressively to mitigate the pecuniary externalities from a deflating bubble when constraints bind.

Download or read book Managing Capital Flows written by Masahiro Kawai and published by Edward Elgar Publishing. This book was released on 2010-01-01 with total page 465 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Managing Capital Flows provides analyses that can help policymakers develop a framework for managing capital flows that is consistent with prudent macroeconomic and financial sector stability. While capital inflows can provide emerging market economies with invaluable benefits in pursuing economic development and growth, they can also pose serious policy challenges for macroeconomic management and financial sector supervision. The expert contributors cover a wide range of issues related to managing capital flows and analyze the experience of emerging Asian economies in dealing with surges in capital inflows. They also discuss possible policy measures to manage capital flows while remaining consistent with the goals of macroeconomic and financial sector stability. Building on this analysis, the book presents options for workable national policies and regional policy cooperation, particularly in exchange rate management. Containing chapters that bring in international experiences relevant to Asia and other emerging market economies, this insightful book will appeal to policymakers in governments and financial institutions, as well as public and private finance experts. It will also be of great interest to advanced students and academic researchers in finance.

Download or read book Volatile Capital Flows in Korea written by K. Chung and published by Springer. This book was released on 2014-12-17 with total page 311 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Volatility in Korean Capital Markets summarizes the Korean experience of volatile capital flows, analyzes the economic consequences, evaluates the policy measures adopted, and suggests new measures for the future.

Download or read book Bubbles and Capital Flow Volatility written by Ricardo J. Caballero and published by . This book was released on 2005 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "Emerging market economies are fertile ground for the development of real estate and other financial bubbles. Despite these economies' significant growth potential, their corporate and government sectors do not generate the financial instruments to provide residents with adequate stores of value. Capital often flows out of these economies seeking these stores of value in the developed world. Bubbles are beneficial because they provide domestic stores of value and thereby reduce capital outflows while increasing investment. But they come at a cost, as they expose the country to bubble-crashes and capital flow reversals. We show that domestic financial underdevelopment not only facilitates the emergence of bubbles, but also leads agents to undervalue the aggregate risk embodied in financial bubbles. In this context, even rational bubbles can be welfare reducing. We study a set of aggregate risk management policies to alleviate the bubble-risk. We show that liquidity requirements, sterilization of capital inflows and structural policies aimed at developing public debt markets "collateralized" by future revenues, all have a high payoff in this environment"--National Bureau of Economic Research web site.

Download or read book Policy Responses to Capital Flows in Emerging Markets written by Mahmood Pradhan and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2011-04-20 with total page 45 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Staff Discussion Notes showcase the latest policy-related analysis and research being developed by individual IMF staff and are published to elicit comment and to further debate. These papers are generally brief and written in nontechnical language, and so are aimed at a broad audience interested in economic policy issues. This Web-only series replaced Staff Position Notes in January 2011.

Download or read book Nonresident Capital Flows and Volatility Evidence from Malaysia s Local Currency Bond Market written by Mr.David A. Grigorian and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-01-25 with total page 19 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Malaysia’s local currency debt market is one of the most liquid public debt markets in the world. In recent years, the growing share of nonresident holders of debt has been a source of concern for policymakers as a reason behind exchange rate volatility. The paper provides an overview of the recent developments in the conventional debt market. It builds an empirical two-stage model to estimate the main drivers of debt capital flows to Malaysia. Finally, it uses a GARCH model to test the hypothesis that nonresident flows are behind the observed exchange rate volatility. The results suggest that the public debt market in Malaysia responds adequately to both pull and push factors and find no firm evidence that nonresident flows cause volatility in the onshore foreign exchange market.

Download or read book Ruling Capital written by Kevin P. Gallagher and published by Cornell University Press. This book was released on 2015-02-10 with total page 286 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In Ruling Capital, Kevin P. Gallagher demonstrates how several emerging market and developing countries (EMDs) managed to reregulate cross-border financial flows in the wake of the global financial crisis, despite the political and economic difficulty of doing so at the national level. Gallagher also shows that some EMDs, particularly the BRICS coalition, were able to maintain or expand their sovereignty to regulate cross-border finance under global economic governance institutions. Gallagher combines econometric analysis with in-depth interviews with officials and interest groups in select emerging markets and policymakers at the International Monetary Fund, the World Trade Organization, and the G-20 to explain key characteristics of the global economy. Gallagher develops a theory of countervailing monetary power that shows how emerging markets can counter domestic and international opposition to the regulation of cross-border finance. Although many countries were able to exert countervailing monetary power in the wake of the crisis, such power was not sufficient to stem the magnitude of unstable financial flows that continue to plague the world economy. Drawing on this theory, Gallagher outlines the significant opportunities and obstacles to regulating cross-border finance in the twenty-first century.

Download or read book Bubbles and Capital Flows written by Jaume Ventura and published by . This book was released on 2002 with total page 52 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper presents a stylized model of international trade and asset price bubbles. Its central insight is that bubbles tend to appear and expand in countries where productivity is low relative to the rest of the world. These bubbles absorb local savings, eliminating inefficient investments and liberating resources that are in part used to invest in high productivity countries. Through this channel, bubbles act as substitute for international capital flows, improving the international allocation of investment and reducing rate-of-return differentials across countries. This view of asset price bubbles has important implications for the way we think about economic growth and fluctuations. It also provides a simple account of some real world phenomenae that have been difficult to model before, such as the recurrence and depth of financial crises or their puzzling tendency to propagate across countries

Download or read book Financial Crises Explanations Types and Implications written by Mr.Stijn Claessens and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-01-30 with total page 66 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper reviews the literature on financial crises focusing on three specific aspects. First, what are the main factors explaining financial crises? Since many theories on the sources of financial crises highlight the importance of sharp fluctuations in asset and credit markets, the paper briefly reviews theoretical and empirical studies on developments in these markets around financial crises. Second, what are the major types of financial crises? The paper focuses on the main theoretical and empirical explanations of four types of financial crises—currency crises, sudden stops, debt crises, and banking crises—and presents a survey of the literature that attempts to identify these episodes. Third, what are the real and financial sector implications of crises? The paper briefly reviews the short- and medium-run implications of crises for the real economy and financial sector. It concludes with a summary of the main lessons from the literature and future research directions.

Download or read book Capital Flow Deflection written by Paolo Giordani and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-08-08 with total page 47 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper focuses on the coordination problem among borrowing countries imposing controls on capital infl ows. In a simple model of capital flows and controls, we show that inflow restrictions distort international capital flows to other countries and that, in turn, such capital flow deflection may lead to a policy response. We then test the theory using data on inflow restrictions and gross capital inflows for a large sample of developing countries between 1995 and 2009. Our estimation yields strong evidence that capital controls deflect capital flows to other borrowing countries with similar economic characteristics. Notwithstanding these strong cross-border spillover effects, we do not find evidence of a policy response.

Download or read book The Global Crash written by Leila Simona Talani and published by Palgrave MacMillan. This book was released on 2010-05-13 with total page 216 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The financial crisis hit the global economy unexpectedly from August 2007 producing consequences comparable to the ones experienced in the course of the 1930s. This book provides a comprehensive interdisciplinary account of the events leading to the financial crisis, its institutional causes and consequences, its economic characteristics and its socio-political implications. This book represents a unique opportunity to gather the opinions of established experts on financial markets from different academic disciplines and from a different academic traditions debating over the future of the global financial order. Leading economists are confronted with leading political scientists in an effort to assess the future of global financial stability and to propose solutions to the problems envisaged. This book is essential reading for all interested in macroeconomics, political economy, globalization studies and political science.

Download or read book International Capital Flows written by Martin Feldstein and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2007-12-01 with total page 500 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Recent changes in technology, along with the opening up of many regions previously closed to investment, have led to explosive growth in the international movement of capital. Flows from foreign direct investment and debt and equity financing can bring countries substantial gains by augmenting local savings and by improving technology and incentives. Investing companies acquire market access, lower cost inputs, and opportunities for profitable introductions of production methods in the countries where they invest. But, as was underscored recently by the economic and financial crises in several Asian countries, capital flows can also bring risks. Although there is no simple explanation of the currency crisis in Asia, it is clear that fixed exchange rates and chronic deficits increased the likelihood of a breakdown. Similarly, during the 1970s, the United States and other industrial countries loaned OPEC surpluses to borrowers in Latin America. But when the U.S. Federal Reserve raised interest rates to control soaring inflation, the result was a widespread debt moratorium in Latin America as many countries throughout the region struggled to pay the high interest on their foreign loans. International Capital Flows contains recent work by eminent scholars and practitioners on the experience of capital flows to Latin America, Asia, and eastern Europe. These papers discuss the role of banks, equity markets, and foreign direct investment in international capital flows, and the risks that investors and others face with these transactions. By focusing on capital flows' productivity and determinants, and the policy issues they raise, this collection is a valuable resource for economists, policymakers, and financial market participants.

Download or read book Exchange Rate Flexibility and Credit during Capital Inflow Reversals written by Mr.Nicolas E. Magud and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-04-16 with total page 30 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We document the behavior of macro and credit variables during episodes of capital inflows reversals in economies with different degrees of exchange rate flexibility. We find that exchange rate flexibility is associated with milder credit growth during the boom but, even though smaller than in more rigid regimes, it cannot shield the economy from a credit reversal. Furthermore, we observe what we dub as a recovery puzzle: credit growth in economies with more flexible exchange rate regimes remains tepid well after the capital flow reversal takes place. This results stress the complementarity of macro-prudential policies with the exchange rate regime. More flexible regimes could help smoothing the credit cycle through capital surchages and dynamic provisioning that build buffers to counteract the credit recovery puzzle. In contrast, more rigid exchange rate regimes would benefit the most from measures to contain excessive credit growth during booms, such as reserve requirements, loan-to-income ratios, and debt-to-income and debt-service-to-income limits.

Download or read book Preemptive Policies and Risk Off Shocks in Emerging Markets written by Ms. Mitali Das and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2022-01-07 with total page 54 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We show that “preemptive” capital flow management measures (CFM) can reduce emerging markets and developing countries’ (EMDE) external finance premia during risk-off shocks, especially for vulnerable countries. Using a panel dataset of 56 EMDEs during 1996–2020 at monthly frequency, we document that countries with preemptive policies in place during the five year window before risk-off shocks experienced relatively lower external finance premia and exchange rate volatility during the shock compared to countries which did not have such preemptive policies in place. We use the episodes of Taper Tantrum and COVID-19 as risk-off shocks. Our identification relies on a difference-in-differences methodology with country fixed effects where preemptive policies are ex-ante by construction and cannot be put in place as a response to the shock ex-post. We control the effects of other policies, such as monetary policy, foreign exchange interventions (FXI), easing of inflow CFMs and tightening of outflow CFMs that are used in response to the risk-off shocks. By reducing the impact of risk-off shocks on countries’ funding costs and exchange rate volatility, preemptive policies enable countries’ continued access to international capital markets during troubled times.

Download or read book Crises in the Economic and Financial Structure written by Paul Wachtel and published by Free Press. This book was released on 1982 with total page 378 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Discuss four crisis-prone areas of the economy-monetary control, bankruplcy, the international economy, and speculative bubbles.