Download or read book Bias in Quantifying Judgments written by E. C. Poulton and published by Taylor & Francis. This book was released on 2023-06-14 with total page 336 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Originally published in 1989, this volume carefully catalogues and classifies the effect of bias on quantitative judgments. Each bias is described by model and examples of this bias are given. The examples include both theoretical investigations carried out in the laboratory to study bias and practical illustrations. They are accompanied by a discussion of methods of avoiding bias, where this is possible. An early look into this now widely recognised subject, this book was an invaluable resource for investigators and practitioners in applied science at the time.
Download or read book Bias in Quantifying Judgements written by E. C. Poulton and published by Taylor & Francis. This book was released on 1989 with total page 330 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Behavioral Decision Theory written by E. C. Poulton and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 1994-09-30 with total page 333 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The book describes the errors that people commonly make in dealing with probabilities. They include both the errors that are now well recognised like overconfidence, and the errors that investigators may themselves introduce without realising it.
Download or read book Cochrane Handbook for Systematic Reviews of Interventions written by Julian P. T. Higgins and published by Wiley. This book was released on 2008-11-24 with total page 672 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Healthcare providers, consumers, researchers and policy makers are inundated with unmanageable amounts of information, including evidence from healthcare research. It has become impossible for all to have the time and resources to find, appraise and interpret this evidence and incorporate it into healthcare decisions. Cochrane Reviews respond to this challenge by identifying, appraising and synthesizing research-based evidence and presenting it in a standardized format, published in The Cochrane Library (www.thecochranelibrary.com). The Cochrane Handbook for Systematic Reviews of Interventions contains methodological guidance for the preparation and maintenance of Cochrane intervention reviews. Written in a clear and accessible format, it is the essential manual for all those preparing, maintaining and reading Cochrane reviews. Many of the principles and methods described here are appropriate for systematic reviews applied to other types of research and to systematic reviews of interventions undertaken by others. It is hoped therefore that this book will be invaluable to all those who want to understand the role of systematic reviews, critically appraise published reviews or perform reviews themselves.
Download or read book Cognitive Biases in Visualizations written by Geoffrey Ellis and published by Springer. This book was released on 2018-09-27 with total page 185 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book brings together the latest research in this new and exciting area of visualization, looking at classifying and modelling cognitive biases, together with user studies which reveal their undesirable impact on human judgement, and demonstrating how visual analytic techniques can provide effective support for mitigating key biases. A comprehensive coverage of this very relevant topic is provided though this collection of extended papers from the successful DECISIVe workshop at IEEE VIS, together with an introduction to cognitive biases and an invited chapter from a leading expert in intelligence analysis. Cognitive Biases in Visualizations will be of interest to a wide audience from those studying cognitive biases to visualization designers and practitioners. It offers a choice of research frameworks, help with the design of user studies, and proposals for the effective measurement of biases. The impact of human visualization literacy, competence and human cognition on cognitive biases are also examined, as well as the notion of system-induced biases. The well referenced chapters provide an excellent starting point for gaining an awareness of the detrimental effect that some cognitive biases can have on users’ decision-making. Human behavior is complex and we are only just starting to unravel the processes involved and investigate ways in which the computer can assist, however the final section supports the prospect that visual analytics, in particular, can counter some of the more common cognitive errors, which have been proven to be so costly.
Download or read book Cognitive Illusions written by Rüdiger F Pohl and published by Psychology Press. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 452 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Cognitive Illusions investigates a wide range of fascinating psychological effects in the way we think, judge and remember in our everyday lives. At the beginning of each chapter, leading researchers in the field introduce the background to phenomena such as illusions of control, overconfidence and hindsight bias. This is followed by an explanation of the experimental context in which these illusions can be investigated and a theoretical discussion drawing conclusions about the wider implications of these fallacy and bias effects. Written with researchers and instructors in mind, this tightly edited, reader-friendly text provides both an overview of research in the area and many lively pedagogic features such as chapter summaries, further reading lists and suggestions for classroom demonstrations.
Download or read book Elicitation of Preferences written by Baruch Fischhoff and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-03-14 with total page 268 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Economists and psychologists have, on the whole, exhibited sharply different perspectives on the elicitation of preferences. Economists, who have made preference the central primitive in their thinking about human behavior, have for the most part rejected elicitation and have instead sought to infer preferences from observations of choice behavior. Psychologists, who have tended to think of preference as a context-determined subjective construct, have embraced elicitation as their dominant approach to measurement. This volume, based on a symposium organized by Daniel McFadden at the University of California at Berkeley, provides a provocative and constructive engagement between economists and psychologists on the elicitation of preferences.
Download or read book The Cambridge Handbook of Thinking and Reasoning written by Keith J. Holyoak and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2005-04-18 with total page 880 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Cambridge Handbook of Thinking and Reasoning is the first comprehensive and authoritative handbook covering all the core topics of the field of thinking and reasoning. Written by the foremost experts from cognitive psychology, cognitive science, and cognitive neuroscience, individual chapters summarize basic concepts and findings for a major topic, sketch its history, and give a sense of the directions in which research is currently heading. The volume also includes work related to developmental, social and clinical psychology, philosophy, economics, artificial intelligence, linguistics, education, law, and medicine. Scholars and students in all these fields and others will find this to be a valuable collection.
Download or read book Elicitation written by Luis C. Dias and published by Springer. This book was released on 2017-11-16 with total page 542 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is about elicitation: the facilitation of the quantitative expression of subjective judgement about matters of fact, interacting with subject experts, or about matters of value, interacting with decision makers or stakeholders. It offers an integrated presentation of procedures and processes that allow analysts and experts to think clearly about numbers, particularly the inputs for decision support systems and models. This presentation encompasses research originating in the communities of structured probability elicitation/calibration and multi-criteria decision analysis, often unaware of each other’s developments. Chapters 2 through 9 focus on processes to elicit uncertainty from experts, including the Classical Method for aggregating judgements from multiple experts concerning probability distributions; the issue of validation in the Classical Method; the Sheffield elicitation framework; the IDEA protocol; approaches following the Bayesian perspective; the main elements of structured expert processes for dependence elicitation; and how mathematical methods can incorporate correlations between experts. Chapters 10 through 14 focus on processes to elicit preferences from stakeholders or decision makers, including two chapters on problems under uncertainty (utility functions), and three chapters that address elicitation of preferences independently of, or in absence of, any uncertainty elicitation (value functions and ELECTRE). Two chapters then focus on cross-cutting issues for elicitation of uncertainties and elicitation of preferences: biases and selection of experts. Finally, the last group of chapters illustrates how some of the presented approaches are applied in practice, including a food security case in the UK; expert elicitation in health care decision making; an expert judgement based method to elicit nuclear threat risks in US ports; risk assessment in a pulp and paper manufacturer in the Nordic countries; and elicitation of preferences for crop planning in a Greek region.
Download or read book Perceptual Audio Evaluation Theory Method and Application written by Søren Bech and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2007-01-11 with total page 462 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: As audio and telecommunication technologies develop, there is an increasing need to evaluate the technical and perceptual performance of these innovations. A growing number of new technologies (e.g. low bit-rate coding) are based on specific properties of the auditory system, which are often highly non-linear. This means that the auditory quality of such systems cannot be measured by traditional physical measures (such as distortion, frequency response etc.), but only by perceptual evaluations in the form of listening tests. Perceptual Audio Evaluation provides a comprehensive guide to the many variables that need to be considered before, during and after experiments. Including the selection of the content of the programme material to be reproduced, technical aspects of the production of the programme material, the experimental set-up including calibration, and the statistical planning of the experiment and subsequent analysis of the data. Perceptual Audio Evaluation: Provides a complete and accessible guide to the motives, theory and practical application of perceptual evaluation of reproduced sound. Discusses all the variables of perceptual evaluation, their control and their possible influence on the results. Covers in detail all international standards on the topic. Is illustrated throughout with tables, figures and worked solutions. Perceptual Audio Evaluation will appeal to audio and speech engineers as well as researchers in audio and speech laboratories. Postgraduate students in engineering or acoustics and undergraduate students studying psychoacoustics, speech audio processing and signal processing will also find this an essential reference.
Download or read book Uncertain Judgements written by Anthony O'Hagan and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2006-08-30 with total page 338 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Elicitation is the process of extracting expert knowledge about some unknown quantity or quantities, and formulating that information as a probability distribution. Elicitation is important in situations, such as modelling the safety of nuclear installations or assessing the risk of terrorist attacks, where expert knowledge is essentially the only source of good information. It also plays a major role in other contexts by augmenting scarce observational data, through the use of Bayesian statistical methods. However, elicitation is not a simple task, and practitioners need to be aware of a wide range of research findings in order to elicit expert judgements accurately and reliably. Uncertain Judgements introduces the area, before guiding the reader through the study of appropriate elicitation methods, illustrated by a variety of multi-disciplinary examples. This is achieved by: Presenting a methodological framework for the elicitation of expert knowledge incorporating findings from both statistical and psychological research. Detailing techniques for the elicitation of a wide range of standard distributions, appropriate to the most common types of quantities. Providing a comprehensive review of the available literature and pointing to the best practice methods and future research needs. Using examples from many disciplines, including statistics, psychology, engineering and health sciences. Including an extensive glossary of statistical and psychological terms. An ideal source and guide for statisticians and psychologists with interests in expert judgement or practical applications of Bayesian analysis, Uncertain Judgements will also benefit decision-makers, risk analysts, engineers and researchers in the medical and social sciences.
Download or read book Reproductive and Perinatal Epidemiology written by Germaine M. Buck Louis and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2011-03-23 with total page 355 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The definitive textbook on the subject, offering a core curriculum that addresses the epidemiology of major reproductive and perinatal outcomes.
Download or read book Applying Quantitative Bias Analysis to Epidemiologic Data written by Timothy L. Lash and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2011-04-14 with total page 200 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Bias analysis quantifies the influence of systematic error on an epidemiology study’s estimate of association. The fundamental methods of bias analysis in epi- miology have been well described for decades, yet are seldom applied in published presentations of epidemiologic research. More recent advances in bias analysis, such as probabilistic bias analysis, appear even more rarely. We suspect that there are both supply-side and demand-side explanations for the scarcity of bias analysis. On the demand side, journal reviewers and editors seldom request that authors address systematic error aside from listing them as limitations of their particular study. This listing is often accompanied by explanations for why the limitations should not pose much concern. On the supply side, methods for bias analysis receive little attention in most epidemiology curriculums, are often scattered throughout textbooks or absent from them altogether, and cannot be implemented easily using standard statistical computing software. Our objective in this text is to reduce these supply-side barriers, with the hope that demand for quantitative bias analysis will follow.
Download or read book Behavioral Decision Analysis written by Florian M. Federspiel and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on with total page 297 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Eliciting and Analyzing Expert Judgment written by Mary A. Meyer and published by SIAM. This book was released on 2001-01-01 with total page 471 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Expert judgment is invaluable for assessing products, systems, and situations for which measurements or test results are sparse or nonexistent. Eliciting and Analyzing Expert Judgment: A Practical Guide takes the reader step by step through the techniques of eliciting and analyzing expert judgment, with special attention given to helping the reader develop elicitation methods and tools adaptable to a variety of unique situations and work areas. The analysis procedures presented in the book may require a basic understanding of statistics and probabilities, but the authors have provided detailed explanations of the techniques used and have taken special care to define all statistical jargon. Originally published in 1991, this book is designed so that those familiar with the use of expert judgment can quickly find the material appropriate for their advanced background.
Download or read book Biographical Dictionary of Psychology written by Noel Sheehy and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2016-01-08 with total page 702 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Biographical Dictionary of Psychology provides biographical information and critical analysis of the influences and reception of over 500 people who have made a significant contribution to the field of psychology. Written by an international team of contributors, this volume charts the development of the practice of psychology worldwide from its emergence in the 1850s up to the present day. Biographies range from important historical figures to those who have had a more recent impact on the field, including: * Chris Argyris * Donald Broadbent * Kay Deaux * Leon Festinger * Sigmund Freud * Erich Fromm * Francis Galton * Eleanor Gibson * Doreen Kimur * Ulric Neisser * Jean Piaget * Herbert A. Simon * B.F. Skinner * Amos Tversky Entries are alphabetically organized and similarly structured for ease of access and allowing comparison of information. Introductory biographical details cover main fields of interest, nationality, principal appointments, honours, and places and dates of birth and death. This is followed by full bibliographic details of principal publications, as well as secondary and critical literature which provide a useful route into further research. Following on from there is an invaluable critical appraisal of the major achievements, influences and reception of the psychologists themselves. Thorough indexing allows the reader to access information by American Psychological Association subject division, key concepts, name and institution.
Download or read book Cognitive Illusions written by Rüdiger F Pohl and published by Psychology Press. This book was released on 2016-07-22 with total page 521 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Cognitive Illusions explores a wide range of fascinating psychological effects in the way we think, judge and remember in our everyday lives. Featuring contributions from leading researchers, the book defines what cognitive illusions are and discusses their theoretical status: are such illusions proof for a faulty human information-processing system, or do they only represent by-products of otherwise adaptive cognitive mechanisms? Throughout the book, background to phenomena such as illusions of control, overconfidence and hindsight bias are discussed, before considering the respective empirical research, potential explanations of the phenomenon, and relevant applied perspectives. Each chapter also features the detailed description of an experiment that can be used as classroom demonstration. Featuring six new chapters, this edition has been thoroughly updated throughout to reflect recent research and changes of focus within the field. This book will be of interest to students and researchers of cognitive illusions, specifically, those focusing on thinking, reasoning, decision-making and memory.
