Download or read book Decision Theory and Decision Analysis Trends and Challenges written by Sixto Ríos and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 1994-07-31 with total page 320 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Decision Theory and Decision Analysis: Trends and Challenges is divided into three parts. The first part, overviews, provides state-of-the-art surveys of various aspects of decision analysis and utility theory. The second part, theory and foundations, includes theoretical contributions on decision-making under uncertainty, partial beliefs and preferences. The third section, applications, reflects the real possibilities of recent theoretical developments such as non-expected utility theories, multicriteria decision techniques, and how these improve our understanding of other areas including artificial intelligence, economics, and environmental studies.

Download or read book Dynamic Perspectives on Managerial Decision Making written by Herbert Dawid and published by Springer. This book was released on 2016-09-15 with total page 518 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume collects research papers addressing topical issues in economics and management with a particular focus on dynamic models which allow to analyze and foster the decision making of firms in dynamic complex environments. The scope of the contributions ranges from daily operational challenges firms face to strategic choices in dynamic industry environments and the analysis of optimal growth paths. The volume also highlights recent methodological developments in the areas of dynamic optimization, dynamic games and meta-heuristics, which help to improve our understanding of (optimal) decision making in a fast evolving economy.

Download or read book Uncertain Decisions written by Luigi Luini and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 1999 with total page 388 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Uncertain Decisions: Bridging Theory and Experiments presents advanced directions of thinking on decision theory - in particular the more recent contributions on non-expected utility theory, fuzzy decision theory and case-based theory. This work also provides theoretical insights on measures of risk aversion and on new problems for general equilibrium analysis. It analyzes how the thinking that underlies the theories described above spills over into real decisions, and how the thinking that underlies these real decisions can explain the discrepancies between theoretical approaches and actual behavior. This work elaborates on how the most recent laboratory experiments have become an important source both for evaluating the leading theory of choice and decision, and for contributing to the formation of new models regarding the subject.

Download or read book Models Methods and Decision Support for Management written by Peter Kischka and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 414 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This title represents an ambitious undertaking, namely a broad view on the nature of intelligent decision making, which is characterized by the use of models and methods in the framework of decision support for management. With this title we want to reflect the scope of our field, but, at the same time, honor our colleague th Paul Stahly on the occasion of his 65 birthday. Paul Stahly has over decades invested his energy in developing the area of Operations Research from such a broad point of view. He has done this not only at his chairs at the HSG / University of St. Gallen and the University of Linz, but also on a broad international level as editor of ITOR and as influential member of all the Operations Research societies in the German speaking countries. He has, in particular, enriched our area by application-oriented research and industrial projects in fields such as logistics, emergency planning, [mance, and others, and he was pivotal in strengthening the cooperation between the national and international OR societies, particular in the German speaking area. VI Consequently, many colleagues who partly cooperated very closely with him, have contributed to this monograph. Some of these contributions have been presented at a colloquium in January 2001 in St. Gallen in honor of Paul Stahly. This colloquium was attended by many colleagues coming from Germany, Austria, Switzerland, Italy and even from the United States.

Download or read book Planning Based on Decision Theory written by Giacomo Della Riccia and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2003-10-21 with total page 180 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Planning of actions based on decision theory is a hot topic for many disciplines. Seemingly unlimited computing power, networking, integration and collaboration have meanwhile attracted the attention of fields like Machine Learning, Operations Research, Management Science and Computer Science. Software agents of e-commerce, mediators of Information Retrieval Systems and Database based Information Systems are typical new application areas. Until now, planning methods were successfully applied in production, logistics, marketing, finance, management, and used in robots, software agents etc. It is the special feature of the book that planning is embedded into decision theory, and this will give the interested reader new perspectives to follow-up.

Download or read book Decision Making Structures written by Mario S. Catalani and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 165 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is the cuhnination of many years' research inspired by the pioneering and seminal works of Sah and Stiglitz. We gratefully acknowledge the influence of these two authors, whose ideas and contributions have brought us together on this collabo ration, despite our divergent scientific backgrounds (while Catalani is interested in quantitative methods, Clerico is a non-quantitative economist) . We thank the Editor of the Rivista Internazionale di Scienze Economiche e Commerciali for permission to use slightly modified versions of papers published in that Review (they are the content of Chapters I and III of Part I, and of Chapter I of Part II). We heartily thank Ms. Laura McLean for carefully revising our English. The publication of this book has been made possible by a grant from the Department of Economics, University of Turin, Italy. Torino, July 1995 Mario S. Catalani Giuseppe F. CIeri co CONTENTS Introduction 1 PART I Some models of decision making structures I. How and when unanimity is a superior decision rule 15 II. Majority rules and efficiency of the decision process 31 III. Team cooperation vs. independent assessment 41 IV. Leadership and dependence 59 V. The decision making process of political organizations 75 PART II Pyramid decision structures I. Pyramidal structures: a preliminary note 91 II. Other properties of pyramids 103 III. Pyramids and dependence 117 IV. Organization, loyalty, and efficiency 133 Conclusions 151 References 163 Mario S.

Download or read book Optimal Decisions Under Uncertainty written by J.K. Sengupta and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 295 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Understanding the stochastic enviornment is as much important to the manager as to the economist. From production and marketing to financial management, a manager has to assess various costs imposed by uncertainty. The economist analyzes the role of incomplete and too often imperfect information structures on the optimal decisions made by a firm. The need for understanding the role of uncertainty in quantitative decision models, both in economics and management science provide the basic motivation of this monograph. The stochastic environment is analyzed here in terms of the following specific models of optimization: linear and quadratic models, linear programming, control theory and dynamic programming. Uncertainty is introduced here through the para meters, the constraints, and the objective function and its impact evaluated. Specifically recent developments in applied research are emphasized, so that they can help the decision-maker arrive at a solution which has some desirable charac teristics like robustness, stability and cautiousness. Mathematical treatment is kept at a fairly elementary level and applied as pects are emphasized much more than theory. Moreover, an attempt is made to in corporate the economic theory of uncertainty into the stochastic theory of opera tions research. Methods of optimal decision rules illustrated he re are applicable in three broad areas: (a) applied economic models in resource allocation and economic planning, (b) operations research models involving portfolio analysis and stochastic linear programming and (c) systems science models in stochastic control and adaptive behavior.

Download or read book Choices Values and Frames written by Daniel Kahneman and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2000-09-25 with total page 864 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book presents the definitive exposition of 'prospect theory', a compelling alternative to the classical utility theory of choice. Building on the 1982 volume, Judgement Under Uncertainty, this book brings together seminal papers on prospect theory from economists, decision theorists, and psychologists, including the work of the late Amos Tversky, whose contributions are collected here for the first time. While remaining within a rational choice framework, prospect theory delivers more accurate, empirically verified predictions in key test cases, as well as helping to explain many complex, real-world puzzles. In this volume, it is brought to bear on phenomena as diverse as the principles of legal compensation, the equity premium puzzle in financial markets, and the number of hours that New York cab drivers choose to drive on rainy days. Theoretically elegant and empirically robust, this volume shows how prospect theory has matured into a new science of decision making.

Download or read book Decision Modelling and Information Systems written by Nikitas-Spiros Koutsoukis and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2003-09-30 with total page 392 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In Decision Modelling And Information Systems: The Information Value Chain the authors explain the interrelationships between the decision support, decision modelling, and information systems. The first two parts of the book focus on the interdisciplinary decision support framework, in which mathematical programming (optimization) is taken as the inference engine. The role of business analytics and its relationship with recent developments in organisational theory, decision modelling, information systems and information technology are considered in depth. Part three of the book includes a carefully chosen selection of invited contributions from internationally-known researchers. These contributions are thought-provoking and cover key decision modelling and information systems issues. The final part of the book covers contemporary developments in the related area of business intelligence considered within an organizational context. The topics cover computing delivered across the web, management decision-making, and socio-economic challenges that lie ahead. It is now well accepted that globalisation and the impact of digital economy are profound; and the role of e-business and the delivery of decision models (business analytics) across the net lead to a challenging business environment. In this dynamic setting, decision support is one of the few interdisciplinary frameworks that can be rapidly adopted and deployed to so that businesses can survive and prosper by meeting these new challenges.

Download or read book Decision Science and Technology written by James Shanteau and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 425 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Decision Science and Technology is a compilation of chapters written in honor of a remarkable man, Ward Edwards. Among Ward's many contributions are two significant accomplishments, either of which would have been enough for a very distinguished career. First, Ward is the founder of behavioral decision theory. This interdisciplinary discipline addresses the question of how people actually confront decisions, as opposed to the question of how they should make decisions. Second, Ward laid the groundwork for sound normative systems by noticing which tasks humans can do well and which tasks computers should perform. This volume, organized into five parts, reflects those accomplishments and more. The book is divided into four sections: `Behavioral Decision Theory' examines theoretical descriptions and empirical findings about human decision making. `Decision Analysis' examines topics in decision analysis.`Decision in Society' explores issues in societal decision making. The final section, `Historical Notes', provides some historical perspectives on the development of the decision theory. Within these sections, major, multi-disciplinary scholars in decision theory have written chapters exploring some very bold themes in the field, as an examination of the book's contents will show. The main reason for the health of the Decision Analysis field is its close links between theory and applications that have characterized it over the years. In this volume, the chapters by Barron and Barrett; Fishburn; Fryback; Keeney; Moreno, Pericchi, and Kadane; Howard; Phillips; Slovic and Gregory; Winkler; and, above all, von Winterfeldt focus on those links. Decision science originally developed out of concern with real decision problems; and applied work, such as is represented in this volume, will help the field to remain strong.

Download or read book Decision Probability and Utility written by Peter Gärdenfors and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 1988-04-29 with total page 464 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Decision theory and the theory of rational choice have recently been the subjects of considerable research by philosophers and economists. However, no adequate anthology exists which can be used to introduce students to the field. This volume is designed to meet that need. The essays included are organized into five parts covering the foundations of decision theory, the conceptualization of probability and utility, pholosophical difficulties with the rules of rationality and with the assessment of probability, and causal decision theory. The editors provide an extensive introduction to the field and introductions to each part.

Download or read book Elementary Decision Theory written by Herman Chernoff and published by Courier Corporation. This book was released on 2012-04-26 with total page 386 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "The text is very clearly written [with] many illustrative examples and exercises [and] should be considered by those instructors who would like to introduce a more modern (and a more logical) approach in a basic course in statistics." —Journal of the American Statistical Association This volume is a well-known, well-respected introduction to a lively area of statistics. Professors Chernoff and Moses bring years of professional expertise as classroom teachers to this straightforward approach to statistical problems. And happily, for beginning students, they have by-passed involved computational reasonings which would only confuse the mathematical novice. Developed from nine years of teaching statistics at Stanford, the book furnishes a simple and clear-cut method of exhibiting the fundamental aspects of a statistical problem. Beginners will find this book a motivating introduction to important mathematical notions such as set, function and convexity. Examples and exercises throughout introduce new topics and ideas. The first seven chapters are recommended for beginning courses in the basic ideas of statistics and require only a knowledge of high school math. These sections include material on data processing, probability and random variables, utility and descriptive statistics, uncertainty due to ignorance of the state of nature, computing Bayes strategies and an introduction to classical statistics. The last three chapters review mathematical models and summarize terminology and methods of testing hypotheses. Tables and appendixes provide information on notation, shortcut computational formulas, axioms of probability, properties of expectations, likelihood ratio test, game theory, and utility functions. Authoritative, yet elementary in its approach to statistics and statistical theory, this work is also concise, well-indexed and abundantly equipped with exercise material. Ideal for a beginning course, this modestly priced edition will be especially valuable to those interested in the principles of statistics and scientific method.

Download or read book Operations Research Methods written by Sujit K. Bose and published by Alpha Science Int'l Ltd.. This book was released on 2005 with total page 276 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: &Quot;The science of Operations Research seeks efficiency and economy in organizational set-up engaged in many economic activities. This book develops important mathematical models cropping up in different decision-making situations in a general manner and then proceeds to give algorithmic development of methods of solution. Though the methods of solution are very diverse in nature, the mathematical tools employed are mainly matrix algebra and elements of probability theory.". "This book will be useful as a text for a one-semester course in engineering and science and as a reference in economics and business administration."--BOOK JACKET.

Download or read book Optimal Control and Dynamic Games written by Christophe Deissenberg and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2005-11-03 with total page 351 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Optimal Control and Dynamic Games has been edited to honor the outstanding contributions of Professor Suresh Sethi in the fields of Applied Optimal Control. Professor Sethi is internationally one of the foremost experts in this field. He is, among others, co-author of the popular textbook "Sethi and Thompson: Optimal Control Theory: Applications to Management Science and Economics". The book consists of a collection of essays by some of the best known scientists in the field, covering diverse aspects of applications of optimal control and dynamic games to problems in Finance, Management Science, Economics, and Operations Research. In doing so, it provides both a state-of-the-art overview over recent developments in the field, and a reference work covering the wide variety of contemporary questions that can be addressed with optimal control tools, and demonstrates the fruitfulness of the methodology.

Download or read book Foundations of Decision Theory written by Michael Bacharach and published by Wiley-Blackwell. This book was released on 1991-01 with total page 344 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Analyzing Risk through Probabilistic Modeling in Operations Research written by Jakóbczak, Dariusz Jacek and published by IGI Global. This book was released on 2015-11-03 with total page 466 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Probabilistic modeling represents a subject spanning many branches of mathematics, economics, and computer science to connect pure mathematics with applied sciences. Operational research also relies on this connection to enable the improvement of business functions and decision making. Analyzing Risk through Probabilistic Modeling in Operations Research is an authoritative reference publication discussing the various challenges in management and decision science. Featuring exhaustive coverage on a range of topics within operational research including, but not limited to, decision analysis, data mining, process modeling, probabilistic interpolation and extrapolation, and optimization methods, this book is an essential reference source for decision makers, academicians, researchers, advanced-level students, technology developers, and government officials interested in the implementation of probabilistic modeling in various business applications.

Download or read book An Introduction to Decision Logic Tables written by Herman McDaniel and published by . This book was released on 1978 with total page 168 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: