Download or read book Uncertainty Quantification and Model Calibration written by Jan Peter Hessling and published by BoD – Books on Demand. This book was released on 2017-07-05 with total page 228 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Uncertainty quantification may appear daunting for practitioners due to its inherent complexity but can be intriguing and rewarding for anyone with mathematical ambitions and genuine concern for modeling quality. Uncertainty quantification is what remains to be done when too much credibility has been invested in deterministic analyses and unwarranted assumptions. Model calibration describes the inverse operation targeting optimal prediction and refers to inference of best uncertain model estimates from experimental calibration data. The limited applicability of most state-of-the-art approaches to many of the large and complex calculations made today makes uncertainty quantification and model calibration major topics open for debate, with rapidly growing interest from both science and technology, addressing subtle questions such as credible predictions of climate heating.

Download or read book Handbook of Uncertainty Quantification written by Roger Ghanem and published by Springer. This book was released on 2016-05-08 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The topic of Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) has witnessed massive developments in response to the promise of achieving risk mitigation through scientific prediction. It has led to the integration of ideas from mathematics, statistics and engineering being used to lend credence to predictive assessments of risk but also to design actions (by engineers, scientists and investors) that are consistent with risk aversion. The objective of this Handbook is to facilitate the dissemination of the forefront of UQ ideas to their audiences. We recognize that these audiences are varied, with interests ranging from theory to application, and from research to development and even execution.

Download or read book Handbook of Hydrometeorological Ensemble Forecasting written by Qingyun Duan and published by Springer. This book was released on 2016-05-06 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Hydrometeorological prediction involves the forecasting of the state and variation of hydrometeorological elements -- including precipitation, temperature, humidity, soil moisture, river discharge, groundwater, etc.-- at different space and time scales. Such forecasts form an important scientific basis for informing public of natural hazards such as cyclones, heat waves, frosts, droughts and floods. Traditionally, and at most currently operational centers, hydrometeorological forecasts are deterministic, “single-valued” outlooks: i.e., the weather and hydrological models provide a single best guess of the magnitude and timing of the impending events. These forecasts suffer the obvious drawback of lacking uncertainty information that would help decision-makers assess the risks of forecast use. Recently, hydrometeorological ensemble forecast approaches have begun to be developed and used by operational collection of hydrometeorological services. In contrast to deterministic forecasts, ensemble forecasts are a multiple forecasts of the same events. The ensemble forecasts are generated by perturbing uncertain factors such as model forcings, initial conditions, and/or model physics. Ensemble techniques are attractive because they not only offer an estimate of the most probable future state of the hydrometeorological system, but also quantify the predictive uncertainty of a catastrophic hydrometeorological event occurring. The Hydrological Ensemble Prediction Experiment (HEPEX), initiated in 2004, has signaled a new era of collaboration toward the development of hydrometeorological ensemble forecasts. By bringing meteorologists, hydrologists and hydrometeorological forecast users together, HEPEX aims to improve operational hydrometeorological forecast approaches to a standard that can be used with confidence by emergencies and water resources managers. HEPEX advocates a hydrometeorological ensemble prediction system (HEPS) framework that consists of several basic building blocks. These components include:(a) an approach (typically statistical) for addressing uncertainty in meteorological inputs and generating statistically consistent space/time meteorological inputs for hydrological applications; (b) a land data assimilation approach for leveraging observation to reduce uncertainties in the initial and boundary conditions of the hydrological system; (c) approaches that address uncertainty in model parameters (also called ‘calibration’); (d) a hydrologic model or other approach for converting meteorological inputs into hydrological outputs; and finally (e) approaches for characterizing hydrological model output uncertainty. Also integral to HEPS is a verification system that can be used to evaluate the performance of all of its components. HEPS frameworks are being increasingly adopted by operational hydrometeorological agencies around the world to support risk management related to flash flooding, river and coastal flooding, drought, and water management. Real benefits of ensemble forecasts have been demonstrated in water emergence management decision making, optimization of reservoir operation, and other applications.

Download or read book Model Validation and Uncertainty Quantification Volume 3 written by Zhu Mao and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2022-01-01 with total page 187 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Model Validation and Uncertainty Quantification, Volume 3: Proceedings of the 39th IMAC, A Conference and Exposition on Structural Dynamics, 2021, the third volume of nine from the Conference brings together contributions to this important area of research and engineering. The collection presents early findings and case studies on fundamental and applied aspects of Model Validation and Uncertainty Quantification, including papers on: Inverse Problems and Uncertainty Quantification Controlling Uncertainty Validation of Models for Operating Environments Model Validation & Uncertainty Quantification: Decision Making Uncertainty Quantification in Structural Dynamics Uncertainty in Early Stage Design Computational and Uncertainty Quantification Tools

Download or read book Model Validation and Uncertainty Quantification Volume 3 written by H. Sezer Atamturktur and published by Springer. This book was released on 2015-04-25 with total page 361 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Model Validation and Uncertainty Quantification, Volume 3. Proceedings of the 33rd IMAC, A Conference and Exposition on Balancing Simulation and Testing, 2015, the third volume of ten from the Conference brings together contributions to this important area of research and engineering. The collection presents early findings and case studies on fundamental and applied aspects of Structural Dynamics, including papers on: Uncertainty Quantification & Model Validation Uncertainty Propagation in Structural Dynamics Bayesian & Markov Chain Monte Carlo Methods Practical Applications of MVUQ Advances in MVUQ & Model Updating

Download or read book Uncertainty Quantification written by Ralph C. Smith and published by SIAM. This book was released on 2013-12-02 with total page 400 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The field of uncertainty quantification is evolving rapidly because of increasing emphasis on models that require quantified uncertainties for large-scale applications, novel algorithm development, and new computational architectures that facilitate implementation of these algorithms. Uncertainty Quantification: Theory, Implementation, and Applications provides readers with the basic concepts, theory, and algorithms necessary to quantify input and response uncertainties for simulation models arising in a broad range of disciplines. The book begins with a detailed discussion of applications where uncertainty quantification is critical for both scientific understanding and policy. It then covers concepts from probability and statistics, parameter selection techniques, frequentist and Bayesian model calibration, propagation of uncertainties, quantification of model discrepancy, surrogate model construction, and local and global sensitivity analysis. The author maintains a complementary web page where readers can find data used in the exercises and other supplementary material.

Download or read book Model Validation and Uncertainty Quantification Vol 3 written by Roland Platz and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on with total page 147 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Topics in Model Validation and Uncertainty Quantification Volume 5 written by Todd Simmermacher and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-05-30 with total page 264 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Topics in Model Validation and Uncertainty Quantification, Volume : Proceedings of the 31st IMAC, A Conference and Exposition on Structural Dynamics, 2013, the fifth volume of seven from the Conference, brings together contributions to this important area of research and engineering. The collection presents early findings and case studies on fundamental and applied aspects of Structural Dynamics, including papers on: Uncertainty Quantification & Propagation in Structural Dynamics Robustness to Lack of Knowledge in Design Model Validation

Download or read book Model Validation and Uncertainty Quantification Volume 3 written by Robert Barthorpe and published by Springer. This book was released on 2019-05-30 with total page 288 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Model Validation and Uncertainty Quantification, Volume 3: Proceedings of the 37th IMAC, A Conference and Exposition on Structural Dynamics, 2019, the third volume of eight from the Conference brings together contributions to this important area of research and engineering. The collection presents early findings and case studies on fundamental and applied aspects of Model Validation and Uncertainty Quantification, including papers on: Inverse Problems and Uncertainty Quantification Controlling Uncertainty Validation of Models for Operating Environments Model Validation & Uncertainty Quantification: Decision Making Uncertainty Quantification in Structural Dynamics Uncertainty in Early Stage Design Computational and Uncertainty Quantification Tools

Download or read book Uncertainty Quantification in Multiscale Materials Modeling written by Yan Wang and published by Woodhead Publishing. This book was released on 2020-03-12 with total page 604 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Uncertainty Quantification in Multiscale Materials Modeling provides a complete overview of uncertainty quantification (UQ) in computational materials science. It provides practical tools and methods along with examples of their application to problems in materials modeling. UQ methods are applied to various multiscale models ranging from the nanoscale to macroscale. This book presents a thorough synthesis of the state-of-the-art in UQ methods for materials modeling, including Bayesian inference, surrogate modeling, random fields, interval analysis, and sensitivity analysis, providing insight into the unique characteristics of models framed at each scale, as well as common issues in modeling across scales.

Download or read book Bayesian Data Analysis Third Edition written by Andrew Gelman and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2013-11-01 with total page 677 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Now in its third edition, this classic book is widely considered the leading text on Bayesian methods, lauded for its accessible, practical approach to analyzing data and solving research problems. Bayesian Data Analysis, Third Edition continues to take an applied approach to analysis using up-to-date Bayesian methods. The authors—all leaders in the statistics community—introduce basic concepts from a data-analytic perspective before presenting advanced methods. Throughout the text, numerous worked examples drawn from real applications and research emphasize the use of Bayesian inference in practice. New to the Third Edition Four new chapters on nonparametric modeling Coverage of weakly informative priors and boundary-avoiding priors Updated discussion of cross-validation and predictive information criteria Improved convergence monitoring and effective sample size calculations for iterative simulation Presentations of Hamiltonian Monte Carlo, variational Bayes, and expectation propagation New and revised software code The book can be used in three different ways. For undergraduate students, it introduces Bayesian inference starting from first principles. For graduate students, the text presents effective current approaches to Bayesian modeling and computation in statistics and related fields. For researchers, it provides an assortment of Bayesian methods in applied statistics. Additional materials, including data sets used in the examples, solutions to selected exercises, and software instructions, are available on the book’s web page.

Download or read book Model Validation and Uncertainty Quantification Volume 3 written by Roland Platz and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2023-10-06 with total page 208 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Model Validation and Uncertainty Quantification, Volume 3: Proceedings of the 41st IMAC, A Conference and Exposition on Structural Dynamics, 2023, the third volume of ten from the Conference brings together contributions to this important area of research and engineering. The collection presents early findings and case studies on fundamental and applied aspects of Model Validation and Uncertainty Quantification, including papers on: Introduction of Uncertainty Quantification Uncertainty Quantification in Dynamics Model Form Uncertainty and Selection incl. Round Robin Challenge Sensor and Information Fusion Virtual Sensing, Certification, and Real-Time Monitoring Surrogate Modeling

Download or read book Uncertainty Quantification written by Ralph C. Smith and published by SIAM. This book was released on 2024-09-13 with total page 571 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Uncertainty quantification serves a fundamental role when establishing the predictive capabilities of simulation models. This book provides a comprehensive and unified treatment of the mathematical, statistical, and computational theory and methods employed to quantify uncertainties associated with models from a wide range of applications. Expanded and reorganized, the second edition includes advances in the field and provides a comprehensive sensitivity analysis and uncertainty quantification framework for models from science and engineering. It contains new chapters on random field representations, observation models, parameter identifiability and influence, active subspace analysis, and statistical surrogate models, and a completely revised chapter on local sensitivity analysis. Other updates to the second edition are the inclusion of over 100 exercises and many new examples — several of which include data — and UQ Crimes listed throughout the text to identify common misconceptions and guide readers entering the field. Uncertainty Quantification: Theory, Implementation, and Applications, Second Edition is intended for advanced undergraduate and graduate students as well as researchers in mathematics, statistics, engineering, physical and biological sciences, operations research, and computer science. Readers are assumed to have a basic knowledge of probability, linear algebra, differential equations, and introductory numerical analysis. The book can be used as a primary text for a one-semester course on sensitivity analysis and uncertainty quantification or as a supplementary text for courses on surrogate and reduced-order model construction and parameter identifiability analysis.

Download or read book Proceedings of the UNIfied Conference of DAMAS IncoME and TEPEN Conferences UNIfied 2023 written by Andrew D. Ball and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on with total page 1186 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Model Validation and Uncertainty Quantification Volume 3 written by Sez Atamturktur and published by Springer. This book was released on 2016-06-27 with total page 366 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Model Validation and Uncertainty Quantifi cation, Volume 3. Proceedings of the 34th IMAC, A Conference and Exposition on Dynamics of Multiphysical Systems: From Active Materials to Vibroacoustics, 2016, the third volume of ten from the Conference brings together contributions to this important area of research and engineering. Th e collection presents early findings and case studies on fundamental and applied aspects of Structural Dynamics, including papers on: • Uncertainty Quantifi cation & Model Validation • Uncertainty Propagation in Structural Dynamics • Bayesian & Markov Chain Monte Carlo Methods • Practical Applications of MVUQ • Advances in MVUQ & Model Updating • Robustness in Design & Validation • Verifi cation & Validation Methods

Download or read book New perspectives and emerging directions in predator prey functional response research Hommage to C S Holling 1930 2019 written by Thomas John Hossie and published by Frontiers Media SA. This book was released on 2023-07-26 with total page 194 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Understanding Risks and Uncertainties in Energy and Climate Policy written by Haris Doukas and published by Springer. This book was released on 2018-12-10 with total page 271 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This open access book analyzes and seeks to consolidate the use of robust quantitative tools and qualitative methods for the design and assessment of energy and climate policies. In particular, it examines energy and climate policy performance and associated risks, as well as public acceptance and portfolio analysis in climate policy, and presents methods for evaluating the costs and benefits of flexible policy implementation as well as new framings for business and market actors. In turn, it discusses the development of alternative policy pathways and the identification of optimal switching points, drawing on concrete examples to do so. Lastly, it discusses climate change mitigation policies’ implications for the agricultural, food, building, transportation, service and manufacturing sectors.