Download or read book Bayesian Multivariate Predictions written by Weijie Mao and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page 86 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This work offers two strategies to raise the prediction accuracy of Vector Autoregressive (VAR) Models. The first strategy is to improve the Minnesota prior, which is frequently used for Bayesian VAR models. The improvement is achieved in two ways. First, the variance-covariance matrix of regression disturbances is treated as unknown and random to incorporate parameter uncertainty. Second, the prior variance-covariance matrix of regression coefficients is constructed as a function of the variance-covariance matrix of disturbances, in order to account for dependencies between different equations. Since different prior specifications unavoidably lead to different models, and forecasting capability of any such model is often limited, the second strategy is to build an optimal prediction pool of models by using the conventional log predictive score function. The effectiveness of the proposed strategies is examined for one-step-ahead, multi-4-step-ahead, and single-4-step-ahead predictions through two exercises. One exercise is predicting national output, inflation, and interest rate in the United States, and the other is predicting state tax revenue and personal income in Iowa. The empirical results indicate that a properly selected prior can improve the prediction performance of a BVAR model, and that a real-time optimal prediction pool can outperform a single best constituent model alone.
Download or read book Bayesian Forecasting and Dynamic Models written by Mike West and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-06-29 with total page 720 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this book we are concerned with Bayesian learning and forecast ing in dynamic environments. We describe the structure and theory of classes of dynamic models, and their uses in Bayesian forecasting. The principles, models and methods of Bayesian forecasting have been developed extensively during the last twenty years. This devel opment has involved thorough investigation of mathematical and sta tistical aspects of forecasting models and related techniques. With this has come experience with application in a variety of areas in commercial and industrial, scientific and socio-economic fields. In deed much of the technical development has been driven by the needs of forecasting practitioners. As a result, there now exists a relatively complete statistical and mathematical framework, although much of this is either not properly documented or not easily accessible. Our primary goals in writing this book have been to present our view of this approach to modelling and forecasting, and to provide a rea sonably complete text for advanced university students and research workers. The text is primarily intended for advanced undergraduate and postgraduate students in statistics and mathematics. In line with this objective we present thorough discussion of mathematical and statistical features of Bayesian analyses of dynamic models, with illustrations, examples and exercises in each Chapter.
Download or read book Bayesian Multivariate Time Series Methods for Empirical Macroeconomics written by Gary Koop and published by Now Publishers Inc. This book was released on 2010 with total page 104 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Bayesian Multivariate Time Series Methods for Empirical Macroeconomics provides a survey of the Bayesian methods used in modern empirical macroeconomics. These models have been developed to address the fact that most questions of interest to empirical macroeconomists involve several variables and must be addressed using multivariate time series methods. Many different multivariate time series models have been used in macroeconomics, but Vector Autoregressive (VAR) models have been among the most popular. Bayesian Multivariate Time Series Methods for Empirical Macroeconomics reviews and extends the Bayesian literature on VARs, TVP-VARs and TVP-FAVARs with a focus on the practitioner. The authors go beyond simply defining each model, but specify how to use them in practice, discuss the advantages and disadvantages of each and offer tips on when and why each model can be used.
Download or read book Time Series written by Raquel Prado and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2021-07-27 with total page 473 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: • Expanded on aspects of core model theory and methodology. • Multiple new examples and exercises. • Detailed development of dynamic factor models. • Updated discussion and connections with recent and current research frontiers.
Download or read book Bayesian Analysis General Framework written by Casaca Joao and published by LAP Lambert Academic Publishing. This book was released on 2015-06-03 with total page 156 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The book "Bayesian analysis: general framework" deals with Bayesian inference within the framework of four stochastic models: the normal random sample, the Gauss-Markov model, the beta-binomial model and the Poisson-gamma model. For each of these models, analytic expressions are presented for the posterior PDF, the prior predictive PDF and the posterior predictive PDF, under the Laplace prior PDF, the Jeffreys prior PDF and the conjugate prior PDF. Topics such as the elicitation of hyper-parameter for the conjugate prior PDF, the selection of models and prediction in multivariate regression analysis and the use of the Bayes factor in the test of hypothesis are dealt with more detail.
Download or read book Multivariate Statistical Machine Learning Methods for Genomic Prediction written by Osval Antonio Montesinos López and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2022-02-14 with total page 707 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is open access under a CC BY 4.0 license This open access book brings together the latest genome base prediction models currently being used by statisticians, breeders and data scientists. It provides an accessible way to understand the theory behind each statistical learning tool, the required pre-processing, the basics of model building, how to train statistical learning methods, the basic R scripts needed to implement each statistical learning tool, and the output of each tool. To do so, for each tool the book provides background theory, some elements of the R statistical software for its implementation, the conceptual underpinnings, and at least two illustrative examples with data from real-world genomic selection experiments. Lastly, worked-out examples help readers check their own comprehension.The book will greatly appeal to readers in plant (and animal) breeding, geneticists and statisticians, as it provides in a very accessible way the necessary theory, the appropriate R code, and illustrative examples for a complete understanding of each statistical learning tool. In addition, it weighs the advantages and disadvantages of each tool.
Download or read book Probability and Bayesian Modeling written by Jim Albert and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2019-12-06 with total page 553 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Probability and Bayesian Modeling is an introduction to probability and Bayesian thinking for undergraduate students with a calculus background. The first part of the book provides a broad view of probability including foundations, conditional probability, discrete and continuous distributions, and joint distributions. Statistical inference is presented completely from a Bayesian perspective. The text introduces inference and prediction for a single proportion and a single mean from Normal sampling. After fundamentals of Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithms are introduced, Bayesian inference is described for hierarchical and regression models including logistic regression. The book presents several case studies motivated by some historical Bayesian studies and the authors’ research. This text reflects modern Bayesian statistical practice. Simulation is introduced in all the probability chapters and extensively used in the Bayesian material to simulate from the posterior and predictive distributions. One chapter describes the basic tenets of Metropolis and Gibbs sampling algorithms; however several chapters introduce the fundamentals of Bayesian inference for conjugate priors to deepen understanding. Strategies for constructing prior distributions are described in situations when one has substantial prior information and for cases where one has weak prior knowledge. One chapter introduces hierarchical Bayesian modeling as a practical way of combining data from different groups. There is an extensive discussion of Bayesian regression models including the construction of informative priors, inference about functions of the parameters of interest, prediction, and model selection. The text uses JAGS (Just Another Gibbs Sampler) as a general-purpose computational method for simulating from posterior distributions for a variety of Bayesian models. An R package ProbBayes is available containing all of the book datasets and special functions for illustrating concepts from the book. A complete solutions manual is available for instructors who adopt the book in the Additional Resources section.
Download or read book Dynamic Linear Models with R written by Giovanni Petris and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2009-06-12 with total page 258 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: State space models have gained tremendous popularity in recent years in as disparate fields as engineering, economics, genetics and ecology. After a detailed introduction to general state space models, this book focuses on dynamic linear models, emphasizing their Bayesian analysis. Whenever possible it is shown how to compute estimates and forecasts in closed form; for more complex models, simulation techniques are used. A final chapter covers modern sequential Monte Carlo algorithms. The book illustrates all the fundamental steps needed to use dynamic linear models in practice, using R. Many detailed examples based on real data sets are provided to show how to set up a specific model, estimate its parameters, and use it for forecasting. All the code used in the book is available online. No prior knowledge of Bayesian statistics or time series analysis is required, although familiarity with basic statistics and R is assumed.
Download or read book Forecasting Large Datasets with Bayesian Reduced Rank Multivariate Models written by Andrea Carriero and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 26 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Multivariate Bayesian Forecasting Models written by José Mario Quintana and published by . This book was released on 1987 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Bayesian Time Series Models written by David Barber and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2011-08-11 with total page 432 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The first unified treatment of time series modelling techniques spanning machine learning, statistics, engineering and computer science.
Download or read book Multivariate Bayesian Forecasting Models written by J. M. Quintana and published by . This book was released on 1987 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Joint Models for Longitudinal and Time to Event Data written by Dimitris Rizopoulos and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2012-06-22 with total page 279 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In longitudinal studies it is often of interest to investigate how a marker that is repeatedly measured in time is associated with a time to an event of interest, e.g., prostate cancer studies where longitudinal PSA level measurements are collected in conjunction with the time-to-recurrence. Joint Models for Longitudinal and Time-to-Event Data: With Applications in R provides a full treatment of random effects joint models for longitudinal and time-to-event outcomes that can be utilized to analyze such data. The content is primarily explanatory, focusing on applications of joint modeling, but sufficient mathematical details are provided to facilitate understanding of the key features of these models. All illustrations put forward can be implemented in the R programming language via the freely available package JM written by the author. All the R code used in the book is available at: http://jmr.r-forge.r-project.org/
Download or read book Reduced Rank Regression written by Heinz Schmidli and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-03-13 with total page 189 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Reduced rank regression is widely used in statistics to model multivariate data. In this monograph, theoretical and data analytical approaches are developed for the application of reduced rank regression in multivariate prediction problems. For the first time, both classical and Bayesian inference is discussed, using recently proposed procedures such as the ECM-algorithm and the Gibbs sampler. All methods are motivated and illustrated by examples taken from the area of quantitative structure-activity relationships (QSAR).
Download or read book Time Series written by Raquel Prado and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2010-05-21 with total page 375 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Focusing on Bayesian approaches and computations using simulation-based methods for inference, Time Series: Modeling, Computation, and Inference integrates mainstream approaches for time series modeling with significant recent developments in methodology and applications of time series analysis. It encompasses a graduate-level account of Bayesian time series modeling and analysis, a broad range of references to state-of-the-art approaches to univariate and multivariate time series analysis, and emerging topics at research frontiers. The book presents overviews of several classes of models and related methodology for inference, statistical computation for model fitting and assessment, and forecasting. The authors also explore the connections between time- and frequency-domain approaches and develop various models and analyses using Bayesian tools, such as Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods. They illustrate the models and methods with examples and case studies from a variety of fields, including signal processing, biomedicine, and finance. Data sets, R and MATLAB® code, and other material are available on the authors’ websites. Along with core models and methods, this text offers sophisticated tools for analyzing challenging time series problems. It also demonstrates the growth of time series analysis into new application areas.
Download or read book Applied Bayesian Forecasting and Time Series Analysis written by Andy Pole and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 1994-09-01 with total page 434 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Practical in its approach, Applied Bayesian Forecasting and Time Series Analysis provides the theories, methods, and tools necessary for forecasting and the analysis of time series. The authors unify the concepts, model forms, and modeling requirements within the framework of the dynamic linear mode (DLM). They include a complete theoretical development of the DLM and illustrate each step with analysis of time series data. Using real data sets the authors: Explore diverse aspects of time series, including how to identify, structure, explain observed behavior, model structures and behaviors, and interpret analyses to make informed forecasts Illustrate concepts such as component decomposition, fundamental model forms including trends and cycles, and practical modeling requirements for routine change and unusual events Conduct all analyses in the BATS computer programs, furnishing online that program and the more than 50 data sets used in the text The result is a clear presentation of the Bayesian paradigm: quantified subjective judgements derived from selected models applied to time series observations. Accessible to undergraduates, this unique volume also offers complete guidelines valuable to researchers, practitioners, and advanced students in statistics, operations research, and engineering.
Download or read book Bayesian Multivariate Poisson lognormal Regression for Crash Prediction on Rural Two lane Highways written by Jianming Ma and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
