Download or read book Bayesian Dynamic Pricing and Subscription Period Selection with Unknown Customer Utility written by Yuan-Mao Kao and published by . This book was released on 2020 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We consider a service provider offering a subscription service to customers over a multi-period planning horizon. The customers decide whether to subscribe according to a utility model that represents their preferences for the service. The provider has a prior belief about the customer utility model, and updates its belief based on the transaction data of new customers and the usage data of existing subscribers. The provider aims to minimize its regret, namely the expected profit loss relative to a clairvoyant who knows the customer utility model. To analyze regret, we first study the clairvoyant's full-information problem. The resulting dynamic program, however, suffers from the curse of dimensionality. We develop a customer-centric approach to resolve this issue and obtain the optimal policy for the full-information problem. This approach balances the provider's immediate and future profits from an individual customer. When the provider does not have full information, we find that the simple and commonly used certainty-equivalence policy, which learns only passively, exhibits poor performance. We illustrate that this can be due to incomplete or slow learning, but can also occur because of offering a suboptimal contract with a long subscription period at the beginning. We propose a two-phase learning policy that first focuses on information accumulation and then profit maximization. We show that our policy achieves asymptotically optimal performance with its regret growing logarithmically in the planning horizon. Our results indicate that the provider should be cautious about offering a long subscription period when it is uncertain about customer preferences.
Download or read book The Elements of Joint Learning and Optimization in Operations Management written by Xi Chen and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2022-09-20 with total page 444 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book examines recent developments in Operations Management, and focuses on four major application areas: dynamic pricing, assortment optimization, supply chain and inventory management, and healthcare operations. Data-driven optimization in which real-time input of data is being used to simultaneously learn the (true) underlying model of a system and optimize its performance, is becoming increasingly important in the last few years, especially with the rise of Big Data.
Download or read book Bayesian Dynamic Pricing with Unknown Customer Willingness to Pay and Limited Inventory written by Li Chen and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page 43 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We consider a dynamic pricing problem in which the seller sells a limited amount of inventory over a short time horizon. The distribution of customer willingness-to-pay is unknown, and the seller learns about the distribution from observing customer purchase decisions. Such a problem arises in practice when certain unique assets are put for sale (e.g., selling a house), but the problem is known to be both analytically and computationally challenging. In this paper, we seek to derive new insights, solution bounds, and heuristics for the problem. We formulate the problem as a Bayesian dynamic program and transform it with an unnormalized prior. Based on the unnormalized prior, we first show that the optimal price for this problem is always finite, which motivates us to search for the optimal solution via the first-order condition. To this end, we prove a generalized envelope theorem for the Bayesian dynamic program, and derive an explicit expression of the first-order derivative of the dynamic program objective function. This derivative expression reveals new insights about the intertwined effects of left censoring, right censoring, and limited inventory in the problem. It also enables us to derive new, easy-to-compute solution bounds and two derivative-based heuristics for the problem. The first heuristic approximates the derivative by a weighted average of its upper and lower bounds, and the second heuristic uses an easy-to-compute open-loop policy as a surrogate for the approximate evaluation of the derivative function. Numerical studies show that both heuristics perform well, with the second heuristic consistently outperforming existing heuristics in the literature. Overall, our paper prescribes a new, derivative-based approach to tackle the dynamic pricing problem with unknown customer willingness-to-pay, limited inventory, and short horizon. Our proposed solutions can help managers to achieve near optimal revenue performance for this challenging problem.
Download or read book Operationalizing Dynamic Pricing Models written by Steffen Christ and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2011-04-02 with total page 363 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Steffen Christ shows how theoretic optimization models can be operationalized by employing self-learning strategies to construct relevant input variables, such as latent demand and customer price sensitivity.
Download or read book Discrete Choice Methods with Simulation written by Kenneth Train and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2009-07-06 with total page 399 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book describes the new generation of discrete choice methods, focusing on the many advances that are made possible by simulation. Researchers use these statistical methods to examine the choices that consumers, households, firms, and other agents make. Each of the major models is covered: logit, generalized extreme value, or GEV (including nested and cross-nested logits), probit, and mixed logit, plus a variety of specifications that build on these basics. Simulation-assisted estimation procedures are investigated and compared, including maximum stimulated likelihood, method of simulated moments, and method of simulated scores. Procedures for drawing from densities are described, including variance reduction techniques such as anithetics and Halton draws. Recent advances in Bayesian procedures are explored, including the use of the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm and its variant Gibbs sampling. The second edition adds chapters on endogeneity and expectation-maximization (EM) algorithms. No other book incorporates all these fields, which have arisen in the past 25 years. The procedures are applicable in many fields, including energy, transportation, environmental studies, health, labor, and marketing.
Download or read book COMPSTAT written by Jelke G. Bethlehem and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2000-08-04 with total page 556 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book contains the keynote, invited and full contributed papers presented at COMPSTAT 2000, held in Utrecht. The papers range over all aspects of the link between statistical theory and applied statistics, with special attention for developments in the area of official statistics. The papers have been thoroughly refereed.
Download or read book INFORMS Annual Meeting written by Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences. National Meeting and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 480 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Swing Pricing and Fragility in Open end Mutual Funds written by Dunhong Jin and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-11-01 with total page 46 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: How to prevent runs on open-end mutual funds? In recent years, markets have observed an innovation that changed the way open-end funds are priced. Alternative pricing rules (known as swing pricing) adjust funds’ net asset values to pass on funds’ trading costs to transacting shareholders. Using unique data on investor transactions in U.K. corporate bond funds, we show that swing pricing eliminates the first-mover advantage arising from the traditional pricing rule and significantly reduces redemptions during stress periods. The positive impact of alternative pricing rules on fund flows reverses in calm periods when costs associated with higher tracking error dominate the pricing effect.
Download or read book Dynamic Linear Models with R written by Giovanni Petris and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2009-06-12 with total page 258 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: State space models have gained tremendous popularity in recent years in as disparate fields as engineering, economics, genetics and ecology. After a detailed introduction to general state space models, this book focuses on dynamic linear models, emphasizing their Bayesian analysis. Whenever possible it is shown how to compute estimates and forecasts in closed form; for more complex models, simulation techniques are used. A final chapter covers modern sequential Monte Carlo algorithms. The book illustrates all the fundamental steps needed to use dynamic linear models in practice, using R. Many detailed examples based on real data sets are provided to show how to set up a specific model, estimate its parameters, and use it for forecasting. All the code used in the book is available online. No prior knowledge of Bayesian statistics or time series analysis is required, although familiarity with basic statistics and R is assumed.
Download or read book Optimal Learning written by Warren B. Powell and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2013-07-09 with total page 416 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Learn the science of collecting information to make effective decisions Everyday decisions are made without the benefit of accurate information. Optimal Learning develops the needed principles for gathering information to make decisions, especially when collecting information is time-consuming and expensive. Designed for readers with an elementary background in probability and statistics, the book presents effective and practical policies illustrated in a wide range of applications, from energy, homeland security, and transportation to engineering, health, and business. This book covers the fundamental dimensions of a learning problem and presents a simple method for testing and comparing policies for learning. Special attention is given to the knowledge gradient policy and its use with a wide range of belief models, including lookup table and parametric and for online and offline problems. Three sections develop ideas with increasing levels of sophistication: Fundamentals explores fundamental topics, including adaptive learning, ranking and selection, the knowledge gradient, and bandit problems Extensions and Applications features coverage of linear belief models, subset selection models, scalar function optimization, optimal bidding, and stopping problems Advanced Topics explores complex methods including simulation optimization, active learning in mathematical programming, and optimal continuous measurements Each chapter identifies a specific learning problem, presents the related, practical algorithms for implementation, and concludes with numerous exercises. A related website features additional applications and downloadable software, including MATLAB and the Optimal Learning Calculator, a spreadsheet-based package that provides an introduction to learning and a variety of policies for learning.
Download or read book Econometric Models For Industrial Organization written by Matthew Shum and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2016-12-14 with total page 154 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Economic Models for Industrial Organization focuses on the specification and estimation of econometric models for research in industrial organization. In recent decades, empirical work in industrial organization has moved towards dynamic and equilibrium models, involving econometric methods which have features distinct from those used in other areas of applied economics. These lecture notes, aimed for a first or second-year PhD course, motivate and explain these econometric methods, starting from simple models and building to models with the complexity observed in typical research papers. The covered topics include discrete-choice demand analysis, models of dynamic behavior and dynamic games, multiple equilibria in entry games and partial identification, and auction models.
Download or read book Dynamic Allocation and Pricing written by Alex Gershkov and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2014-12-12 with total page 209 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A new approach to dynamic allocation and pricing that blends dynamic paradigms from the operations research and management science literature with classical mechanism design methods. Dynamic allocation and pricing problems occur in numerous frameworks, including the pricing of seasonal goods in retail, the allocation of a fixed inventory in a given period of time, and the assignment of personnel to incoming tasks. Although most of these problems deal with issues treated in the mechanism design literature, the modern revenue management (RM) literature focuses instead on analyzing properties of restricted classes of allocation and pricing schemes. In this book, Alex Gershkov and Benny Moldovanu propose an approach to optimal allocations and prices based on the theory of mechanism design, adapted to dynamic settings. Drawing on their own recent work on the topic, the authors describe a modern theory of RM that blends the elegant dynamic models from the operations research (OR), management science, and computer science literatures with techniques from the classical mechanism design literature. Illustrating this blending of approaches, they start with well-known complete information, nonstrategic dynamic models that yield elegant explicit solutions. They then add strategic agents that are privately informed and then examine the consequences of these changes on the optimization problem of the designer. Their sequential modeling of both nonstrategic and strategic logic allows a clear picture of the delicate interplay between dynamic trade-offs and strategic incentives. Topics include the sequential assignment of heterogeneous objects, dynamic revenue optimization with heterogeneous objects, revenue maximization in the stochastic and dynamic knapsack model, the interaction between learning about demand and dynamic efficiency, and dynamic models with long-lived, strategic agents.
Download or read book The Economics of Artificial Intelligence written by Ajay Agrawal and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2019-06-07 with total page 643 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Advances in artificial intelligence (AI) highlight the potential of this technology to affect productivity, growth, inequality, market power, innovation, and employment. This volume seeks to set the agenda for economic research on the impact of AI. It covers four broad themes: AI as a general purpose technology; the relationships between AI, growth, jobs, and inequality; regulatory responses to changes brought on by AI; and the effects of AI on the way economic research is conducted. It explores the economic influence of machine learning, the branch of computational statistics that has driven much of the recent excitement around AI, as well as the economic impact of robotics and automation and the potential economic consequences of a still-hypothetical artificial general intelligence. The volume provides frameworks for understanding the economic impact of AI and identifies a number of open research questions. Contributors: Daron Acemoglu, Massachusetts Institute of Technology Philippe Aghion, Collège de France Ajay Agrawal, University of Toronto Susan Athey, Stanford University James Bessen, Boston University School of Law Erik Brynjolfsson, MIT Sloan School of Management Colin F. Camerer, California Institute of Technology Judith Chevalier, Yale School of Management Iain M. Cockburn, Boston University Tyler Cowen, George Mason University Jason Furman, Harvard Kennedy School Patrick Francois, University of British Columbia Alberto Galasso, University of Toronto Joshua Gans, University of Toronto Avi Goldfarb, University of Toronto Austan Goolsbee, University of Chicago Booth School of Business Rebecca Henderson, Harvard Business School Ginger Zhe Jin, University of Maryland Benjamin F. Jones, Northwestern University Charles I. Jones, Stanford University Daniel Kahneman, Princeton University Anton Korinek, Johns Hopkins University Mara Lederman, University of Toronto Hong Luo, Harvard Business School John McHale, National University of Ireland Paul R. Milgrom, Stanford University Matthew Mitchell, University of Toronto Alexander Oettl, Georgia Institute of Technology Andrea Prat, Columbia Business School Manav Raj, New York University Pascual Restrepo, Boston University Daniel Rock, MIT Sloan School of Management Jeffrey D. Sachs, Columbia University Robert Seamans, New York University Scott Stern, MIT Sloan School of Management Betsey Stevenson, University of Michigan Joseph E. Stiglitz. Columbia University Chad Syverson, University of Chicago Booth School of Business Matt Taddy, University of Chicago Booth School of Business Steven Tadelis, University of California, Berkeley Manuel Trajtenberg, Tel Aviv University Daniel Trefler, University of Toronto Catherine Tucker, MIT Sloan School of Management Hal Varian, University of California, Berkeley
Download or read book Bayesian Filtering and Smoothing written by Simo Särkkä and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2013-09-05 with total page 255 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A unified Bayesian treatment of the state-of-the-art filtering, smoothing, and parameter estimation algorithms for non-linear state space models.
Download or read book Statistical Rethinking written by Richard McElreath and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2018-01-03 with total page 488 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Statistical Rethinking: A Bayesian Course with Examples in R and Stan builds readers’ knowledge of and confidence in statistical modeling. Reflecting the need for even minor programming in today’s model-based statistics, the book pushes readers to perform step-by-step calculations that are usually automated. This unique computational approach ensures that readers understand enough of the details to make reasonable choices and interpretations in their own modeling work. The text presents generalized linear multilevel models from a Bayesian perspective, relying on a simple logical interpretation of Bayesian probability and maximum entropy. It covers from the basics of regression to multilevel models. The author also discusses measurement error, missing data, and Gaussian process models for spatial and network autocorrelation. By using complete R code examples throughout, this book provides a practical foundation for performing statistical inference. Designed for both PhD students and seasoned professionals in the natural and social sciences, it prepares them for more advanced or specialized statistical modeling. Web Resource The book is accompanied by an R package (rethinking) that is available on the author’s website and GitHub. The two core functions (map and map2stan) of this package allow a variety of statistical models to be constructed from standard model formulas.
Download or read book The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics written by and published by Springer. This book was released on 2016-05-18 with total page 7493 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The award-winning The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics, 2nd edition is now available as a dynamic online resource. Consisting of over 1,900 articles written by leading figures in the field including Nobel prize winners, this is the definitive scholarly reference work for a new generation of economists. Regularly updated! This product is a subscription based product.
Download or read book The Oxford Handbook of Bayesian Econometrics written by John Geweke and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2011-09-29 with total page 576 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Bayesian econometric methods have enjoyed an increase in popularity in recent years. Econometricians, empirical economists, and policymakers are increasingly making use of Bayesian methods. This handbook is a single source for researchers and policymakers wanting to learn about Bayesian methods in specialized fields, and for graduate students seeking to make the final step from textbook learning to the research frontier. It contains contributions by leading Bayesians on the latest developments in their specific fields of expertise. The volume provides broad coverage of the application of Bayesian econometrics in the major fields of economics and related disciplines, including macroeconomics, microeconomics, finance, and marketing. It reviews the state of the art in Bayesian econometric methodology, with chapters on posterior simulation and Markov chain Monte Carlo methods, Bayesian nonparametric techniques, and the specialized tools used by Bayesian time series econometricians such as state space models and particle filtering. It also includes chapters on Bayesian principles and methodology.
