Download or read book Bayesian Data Analysis Third Edition written by Andrew Gelman and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2013-11-01 with total page 677 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Now in its third edition, this classic book is widely considered the leading text on Bayesian methods, lauded for its accessible, practical approach to analyzing data and solving research problems. Bayesian Data Analysis, Third Edition continues to take an applied approach to analysis using up-to-date Bayesian methods. The authors—all leaders in the statistics community—introduce basic concepts from a data-analytic perspective before presenting advanced methods. Throughout the text, numerous worked examples drawn from real applications and research emphasize the use of Bayesian inference in practice. New to the Third Edition Four new chapters on nonparametric modeling Coverage of weakly informative priors and boundary-avoiding priors Updated discussion of cross-validation and predictive information criteria Improved convergence monitoring and effective sample size calculations for iterative simulation Presentations of Hamiltonian Monte Carlo, variational Bayes, and expectation propagation New and revised software code The book can be used in three different ways. For undergraduate students, it introduces Bayesian inference starting from first principles. For graduate students, the text presents effective current approaches to Bayesian modeling and computation in statistics and related fields. For researchers, it provides an assortment of Bayesian methods in applied statistics. Additional materials, including data sets used in the examples, solutions to selected exercises, and software instructions, are available on the book’s web page.

Download or read book Bayesian Statistics the Fun Way written by Will Kurt and published by No Starch Press. This book was released on 2019-07-09 with total page 258 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Fun guide to learning Bayesian statistics and probability through unusual and illustrative examples. Probability and statistics are increasingly important in a huge range of professions. But many people use data in ways they don't even understand, meaning they aren't getting the most from it. Bayesian Statistics the Fun Way will change that. This book will give you a complete understanding of Bayesian statistics through simple explanations and un-boring examples. Find out the probability of UFOs landing in your garden, how likely Han Solo is to survive a flight through an asteroid shower, how to win an argument about conspiracy theories, and whether a burglary really was a burglary, to name a few examples. By using these off-the-beaten-track examples, the author actually makes learning statistics fun. And you'll learn real skills, like how to: - How to measure your own level of uncertainty in a conclusion or belief - Calculate Bayes theorem and understand what it's useful for - Find the posterior, likelihood, and prior to check the accuracy of your conclusions - Calculate distributions to see the range of your data - Compare hypotheses and draw reliable conclusions from them Next time you find yourself with a sheaf of survey results and no idea what to do with them, turn to Bayesian Statistics the Fun Way to get the most value from your data.

Download or read book The Oxford Handbook of Applied Bayesian Analysis written by Anthony O' Hagan and published by OUP Oxford. This book was released on 2010-03-18 with total page 924 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Bayesian analysis has developed rapidly in applications in the last two decades and research in Bayesian methods remains dynamic and fast-growing. Dramatic advances in modelling concepts and computational technologies now enable routine application of Bayesian analysis using increasingly realistic stochastic models, and this drives the adoption of Bayesian approaches in many areas of science, technology, commerce, and industry. This Handbook explores contemporary Bayesian analysis across a variety of application areas. Chapters written by leading exponents of applied Bayesian analysis showcase the scientific ease and natural application of Bayesian modelling, and present solutions to real, engaging, societally important and demanding problems. The chapters are grouped into five general areas: Biomedical & Health Sciences; Industry, Economics & Finance; Environment & Ecology; Policy, Political & Social Sciences; and Natural & Engineering Sciences, and Appendix material in each touches on key concepts, models, and techniques of the chapter that are also of broader pedagogic and applied interest.

Download or read book Bayesian Statistics for the Social Sciences written by David Kaplan and published by Guilford Publications. This book was released on 2014-07-23 with total page 337 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Bridging the gap between traditional classical statistics and a Bayesian approach, David Kaplan provides readers with the concepts and practical skills they need to apply Bayesian methodologies to their data analysis problems. Part I addresses the elements of Bayesian inference, including exchangeability, likelihood, prior/posterior distributions, and the Bayesian central limit theorem. Part II covers Bayesian hypothesis testing, model building, and linear regression analysis, carefully explaining the differences between the Bayesian and frequentist approaches. Part III extends Bayesian statistics to multilevel modeling and modeling for continuous and categorical latent variables. Kaplan closes with a discussion of philosophical issues and argues for an "evidence-based" framework for the practice of Bayesian statistics. User-Friendly Features *Includes worked-through, substantive examples, using large-scale educational and social science databases, such as PISA (Program for International Student Assessment) and the LSAY (Longitudinal Study of American Youth). *Utilizes open-source R software programs available on CRAN (such as MCMCpack and rjags); readers do not have to master the R language and can easily adapt the example programs to fit individual needs. *Shows readers how to carefully warrant priors on the basis of empirical data. *Companion website features data and code for the book's examples, plus other resources.

Download or read book Bayesian Item Response Modeling written by Jean-Paul Fox and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2010-05-19 with total page 323 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The modeling of item response data is governed by item response theory, also referred to as modern test theory. The eld of inquiry of item response theory has become very large and shows the enormous progress that has been made. The mainstream literature is focused on frequentist statistical methods for - timating model parameters and evaluating model t. However, the Bayesian methodology has shown great potential, particularly for making further - provements in the statistical modeling process. The Bayesian approach has two important features that make it attractive for modeling item response data. First, it enables the possibility of incorpor- ing nondata information beyond the observed responses into the analysis. The Bayesian methodology is also very clear about how additional information can be used. Second, the Bayesian approach comes with powerful simulation-based estimation methods. These methods make it possible to handle all kinds of priors and data-generating models. One of my motives for writing this book is to give an introduction to the Bayesian methodology for modeling and analyzing item response data. A Bayesian counterpart is presented to the many popular item response theory books (e.g., Baker and Kim 2004; De Boeck and Wilson, 2004; Hambleton and Swaminathan, 1985; van der Linden and Hambleton, 1997) that are mainly or completely focused on frequentist methods. The usefulness of the Bayesian methodology is illustrated by discussing and applying a range of Bayesian item response models.

Download or read book Bayes Rules written by Alicia A. Johnson and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2022-03-03 with total page 606 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Praise for Bayes Rules!: An Introduction to Applied Bayesian Modeling “A thoughtful and entertaining book, and a great way to get started with Bayesian analysis.” Andrew Gelman, Columbia University “The examples are modern, and even many frequentist intro books ignore important topics (like the great p-value debate) that the authors address. The focus on simulation for understanding is excellent.” Amy Herring, Duke University “I sincerely believe that a generation of students will cite this book as inspiration for their use of – and love for – Bayesian statistics. The narrative holds the reader’s attention and flows naturally – almost conversationally. Put simply, this is perhaps the most engaging introductory statistics textbook I have ever read. [It] is a natural choice for an introductory undergraduate course in applied Bayesian statistics." Yue Jiang, Duke University “This is by far the best book I’ve seen on how to (and how to teach students to) do Bayesian modeling and understand the underlying mathematics and computation. The authors build intuition and scaffold ideas expertly, using interesting real case studies, insightful graphics, and clear explanations. The scope of this book is vast – from basic building blocks to hierarchical modeling, but the authors’ thoughtful organization allows the reader to navigate this journey smoothly. And impressively, by the end of the book, one can run sophisticated Bayesian models and actually understand the whys, whats, and hows.” Paul Roback, St. Olaf College “The authors provide a compelling, integrated, accessible, and non-religious introduction to statistical modeling using a Bayesian approach. They outline a principled approach that features computational implementations and model assessment with ethical implications interwoven throughout. Students and instructors will find the conceptual and computational exercises to be fresh and engaging.” Nicholas Horton, Amherst College An engaging, sophisticated, and fun introduction to the field of Bayesian statistics, Bayes Rules!: An Introduction to Applied Bayesian Modeling brings the power of modern Bayesian thinking, modeling, and computing to a broad audience. In particular, the book is an ideal resource for advanced undergraduate statistics students and practitioners with comparable experience. Bayes Rules! empowers readers to weave Bayesian approaches into their everyday practice. Discussions and applications are data driven. A natural progression from fundamental to multivariable, hierarchical models emphasizes a practical and generalizable model building process. The evaluation of these Bayesian models reflects the fact that a data analysis does not exist in a vacuum. Features • Utilizes data-driven examples and exercises. • Emphasizes the iterative model building and evaluation process. • Surveys an interconnected range of multivariable regression and classification models. • Presents fundamental Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation. • Integrates R code, including RStan modeling tools and the bayesrules package. • Encourages readers to tap into their intuition and learn by doing. • Provides a friendly and inclusive introduction to technical Bayesian concepts. • Supports Bayesian applications with foundational Bayesian theory.

Download or read book Bayesian Analysis in Natural Language Processing written by Shay Cohen and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2022-11-10 with total page 266 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Natural language processing (NLP) went through a profound transformation in the mid-1980s when it shifted to make heavy use of corpora and data-driven techniques to analyze language. Since then, the use of statistical techniques in NLP has evolved in several ways. One such example of evolution took place in the late 1990s or early 2000s, when full-fledged Bayesian machinery was introduced to NLP. This Bayesian approach to NLP has come to accommodate for various shortcomings in the frequentist approach and to enrich it, especially in the unsupervised setting, where statistical learning is done without target prediction examples. We cover the methods and algorithms that are needed to fluently read Bayesian learning papers in NLP and to do research in the area. These methods and algorithms are partially borrowed from both machine learning and statistics and are partially developed "in-house" in NLP. We cover inference techniques such as Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling and variational inference, Bayesian estimation, and nonparametric modeling. We also cover fundamental concepts in Bayesian statistics such as prior distributions, conjugacy, and generative modeling. Finally, we cover some of the fundamental modeling techniques in NLP, such as grammar modeling and their use with Bayesian analysis.

Download or read book Advanced Lectures on Machine Learning written by Olivier Bousquet and published by Springer. This book was released on 2011-03-22 with total page 249 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Machine Learning has become a key enabling technology for many engineering applications, investigating scientific questions and theoretical problems alike. To stimulate discussions and to disseminate new results, a summer school series was started in February 2002, the documentation of which is published as LNAI 2600. This book presents revised lectures of two subsequent summer schools held in 2003 in Canberra, Australia, and in Tübingen, Germany. The tutorial lectures included are devoted to statistical learning theory, unsupervised learning, Bayesian inference, and applications in pattern recognition; they provide in-depth overviews of exciting new developments and contain a large number of references. Graduate students, lecturers, researchers and professionals alike will find this book a useful resource in learning and teaching machine learning.

Download or read book Bayesian Population Analysis Using WinBUGS written by Marc Kéry and published by Academic Press. This book was released on 2012 with total page 556 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Bayesian statistics has exploded into biology and its sub-disciplines, such as ecology, over the past decade. The free software program WinBUGS, and its open-source sister OpenBugs, is currently the only flexible and general-purpose program available with which the average ecologist can conduct standard and non-standard Bayesian statistics. Comprehensive and richly commented examples illustrate a wide range of models that are most relevant to the research of a modern population ecologist All WinBUGS/OpenBUGS analyses are completely integrated in software R Includes complete documentation of all R and WinBUGS code required to conduct analyses and shows all the necessary steps from having the data in a text file out of Excel to interpreting and processing the output from WinBUGS in R

Download or read book Bayesian Theory and Applications written by Paul Damien and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2013-01-24 with total page 717 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume guides the reader along a statistical journey that begins with the basic structure of Bayesian theory, and then provides details on most of the past and present advances in this field.

Download or read book Doing Meta Analysis with R written by Mathias Harrer and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2021-09-15 with total page 500 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Doing Meta-Analysis with R: A Hands-On Guide serves as an accessible introduction on how meta-analyses can be conducted in R. Essential steps for meta-analysis are covered, including calculation and pooling of outcome measures, forest plots, heterogeneity diagnostics, subgroup analyses, meta-regression, methods to control for publication bias, risk of bias assessments and plotting tools. Advanced but highly relevant topics such as network meta-analysis, multi-three-level meta-analyses, Bayesian meta-analysis approaches and SEM meta-analysis are also covered. A companion R package, dmetar, is introduced at the beginning of the guide. It contains data sets and several helper functions for the meta and metafor package used in the guide. The programming and statistical background covered in the book are kept at a non-expert level, making the book widely accessible. Features • Contains two introductory chapters on how to set up an R environment and do basic imports/manipulations of meta-analysis data, including exercises • Describes statistical concepts clearly and concisely before applying them in R • Includes step-by-step guidance through the coding required to perform meta-analyses, and a companion R package for the book

Download or read book Probability and Bayesian Modeling written by Jim Albert and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2019-12-06 with total page 553 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Probability and Bayesian Modeling is an introduction to probability and Bayesian thinking for undergraduate students with a calculus background. The first part of the book provides a broad view of probability including foundations, conditional probability, discrete and continuous distributions, and joint distributions. Statistical inference is presented completely from a Bayesian perspective. The text introduces inference and prediction for a single proportion and a single mean from Normal sampling. After fundamentals of Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithms are introduced, Bayesian inference is described for hierarchical and regression models including logistic regression. The book presents several case studies motivated by some historical Bayesian studies and the authors’ research. This text reflects modern Bayesian statistical practice. Simulation is introduced in all the probability chapters and extensively used in the Bayesian material to simulate from the posterior and predictive distributions. One chapter describes the basic tenets of Metropolis and Gibbs sampling algorithms; however several chapters introduce the fundamentals of Bayesian inference for conjugate priors to deepen understanding. Strategies for constructing prior distributions are described in situations when one has substantial prior information and for cases where one has weak prior knowledge. One chapter introduces hierarchical Bayesian modeling as a practical way of combining data from different groups. There is an extensive discussion of Bayesian regression models including the construction of informative priors, inference about functions of the parameters of interest, prediction, and model selection. The text uses JAGS (Just Another Gibbs Sampler) as a general-purpose computational method for simulating from posterior distributions for a variety of Bayesian models. An R package ProbBayes is available containing all of the book datasets and special functions for illustrating concepts from the book. A complete solutions manual is available for instructors who adopt the book in the Additional Resources section.

Download or read book Bayesian Statistical Modelling written by Peter Congdon and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2007-04-04 with total page 596 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Bayesian methods combine the evidence from the data at hand with previous quantitative knowledge to analyse practical problems in a wide range of areas. The calculations were previously complex, but it is now possible to routinely apply Bayesian methods due to advances in computing technology and the use of new sampling methods for estimating parameters. Such developments together with the availability of freeware such as WINBUGS and R have facilitated a rapid growth in the use of Bayesian methods, allowing their application in many scientific disciplines, including applied statistics, public health research, medical science, the social sciences and economics. Following the success of the first edition, this reworked and updated book provides an accessible approach to Bayesian computing and analysis, with an emphasis on the principles of prior selection, identification and the interpretation of real data sets. The second edition: Provides an integrated presentation of theory, examples, applications and computer algorithms. Discusses the role of Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods in computing and estimation. Includes a wide range of interdisciplinary applications, and a large selection of worked examples from the health and social sciences. Features a comprehensive range of methodologies and modelling techniques, and examines model fitting in practice using Bayesian principles. Provides exercises designed to help reinforce the reader’s knowledge and a supplementary website containing data sets and relevant programs. Bayesian Statistical Modelling is ideal for researchers in applied statistics, medical science, public health and the social sciences, who will benefit greatly from the examples and applications featured. The book will also appeal to graduate students of applied statistics, data analysis and Bayesian methods, and will provide a great source of reference for both researchers and students. Praise for the First Edition: “It is a remarkable achievement to have carried out such a range of analysis on such a range of data sets. I found this book comprehensive and stimulating, and was thoroughly impressed with both the depth and the range of the discussions it contains.” – ISI - Short Book Reviews “This is an excellent introductory book on Bayesian modelling techniques and data analysis” – Biometrics “The book fills an important niche in the statistical literature and should be a very valuable resource for students and professionals who are utilizing Bayesian methods.” – Journal of Mathematical Psychology

Download or read book Computational Cognitive Modeling and Linguistic Theory written by Adrian Brasoveanu and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2020-01-01 with total page 299 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This open access book introduces a general framework that allows natural language researchers to enhance existing competence theories with fully specified performance and processing components. Gradually developing increasingly complex and cognitively realistic competence-performance models, it provides running code for these models and shows how to fit them to real-time experimental data. This computational cognitive modeling approach opens up exciting new directions for research in formal semantics, and linguistics more generally, and offers new ways of (re)connecting semantics and the broader field of cognitive science. The approach of this book is novel in more ways than one. Assuming the mental architecture and procedural modalities of Anderson's ACT-R framework, it presents fine-grained computational models of human language processing tasks which make detailed quantitative predictions that can be checked against the results of self-paced reading and other psycho-linguistic experiments. All models are presented as computer programs that readers can run on their own computer and on inputs of their choice, thereby learning to design, program and run their own models. But even for readers who won't do all that, the book will show how such detailed, quantitatively predicting modeling of linguistic processes is possible. A methodological breakthrough and a must for anyone concerned about the future of linguistics! (Hans Kamp) This book constitutes a major step forward in linguistics and psycholinguistics. It constitutes a unique synthesis of several different research traditions: computational models of psycholinguistic processes, and formal models of semantics and discourse processing. The work also introduces a sophisticated python-based software environment for modeling linguistic processes. This book has the potential to revolutionize not only formal models of linguistics, but also models of language processing more generally. (Shravan Vasishth) .

Download or read book Biometrika written by D. M. Titterington and published by . This book was released on 2001 with total page 404 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The year 2001 marks the centenary of Biometrika, one of the world's leading academic journals in statistical theory and methodology. In celebration of this, the book brings together two sets of papers from the journal. The first comprises seven specially commissioned articles (authors: D.R. Cox, A.C. Davison, Anthony C. Atkinson and R.A. Bailey, David Oakes, Peter Hall, T.M.F. Smith, and Howell Tong). These articles review the history of the journal and the most important contributions made by appearing in the journal in a number of important areas of statitisical activity, including general theory and methodology, surveys and time sets. In the process the papers describe the general development of statistical science during the twentieth century. The second group of ten papers are a selection of particularly seminal articles form the journal's first hundred years. The book opens with an introduction by the editors Professor D.M. Titterington and Sir David Cox.

Download or read book Statistical Inference as Severe Testing written by Deborah G. Mayo and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2018-09-20 with total page 503 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Mounting failures of replication in social and biological sciences give a new urgency to critically appraising proposed reforms. This book pulls back the cover on disagreements between experts charged with restoring integrity to science. It denies two pervasive views of the role of probability in inference: to assign degrees of belief, and to control error rates in a long run. If statistical consumers are unaware of assumptions behind rival evidence reforms, they can't scrutinize the consequences that affect them (in personalized medicine, psychology, etc.). The book sets sail with a simple tool: if little has been done to rule out flaws in inferring a claim, then it has not passed a severe test. Many methods advocated by data experts do not stand up to severe scrutiny and are in tension with successful strategies for blocking or accounting for cherry picking and selective reporting. Through a series of excursions and exhibits, the philosophy and history of inductive inference come alive. Philosophical tools are put to work to solve problems about science and pseudoscience, induction and falsification.

Download or read book Bayesian Methods for Statistical Analysis written by Borek Puza and published by ANU Press. This book was released on 2015-10-01 with total page 698 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Bayesian Methods for Statistical Analysis is a book on statistical methods for analysing a wide variety of data. The book consists of 12 chapters, starting with basic concepts and covering numerous topics, including Bayesian estimation, decision theory, prediction, hypothesis testing, hierarchical models, Markov chain Monte Carlo methods, finite population inference, biased sampling and nonignorable nonresponse. The book contains many exercises, all with worked solutions, including complete computer code. It is suitable for self-study or a semester-long course, with three hours of lectures and one tutorial per week for 13 weeks.