Download or read book Banking and Sovereign Risk in the Euro Area written by Stefan Gerlach and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 68 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We study the determinants of sovereign bond spreads in the euro area since the introduction of the euro. We show that an aggregate risk factor is a main driver of spreads. This factor also plays an important indirect role for risk spreads through its interaction with the size and structure of national banking sectors. When aggregate risk increases, countries with large banking sectors and low equity ratios in the banking sector experience greater widening in yield spreads, suggesting that financial markets perceive a larger risk that governments will have to rescue banks, increasing public debt and therefore sovereign risk. Moreover, government debt levels and forecasts of future fiscal deficits are also significant determinants of sovereign spreads.

Download or read book Banking and Sovereign Risk in the Euro Area written by Stefan Gerlach and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Managing the Sovereign Bank Nexus written by Mr.Giovanni Dell'Ariccia and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-09-07 with total page 54 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper reviews empirical and theoretical work on the links between banks and their governments (the bank-sovereign nexus). How significant is this nexus? What do we know about it? To what extent is it a source of concern? What is the role of policy intervention? The paper concludes with a review of recent policy proposals.

Download or read book Sovereign Risk and Belief Driven Fluctuations in the Euro Area written by Giancarlo Corsetti and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-11-06 with total page 49 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Sovereign risk premia in several euro area countries have risen markedly since 2008, driving up credit spreads in the private sector as well. We propose a New Keynesian model of a two-region monetary union that accounts for this “sovereign risk channel.” The model is calibrated to the euro area as of mid-2012. We show that a combination of sovereign risk in one region and strongly procyclical fiscal policy at the aggregate level exacerbates the risk of belief-driven deflationary downturns. The model provides an argument in favor of coordinated, asymmetric fiscal stances as a way to prevent selffulfilling debt crises.

Download or read book Banking and Sovereign Risk in the Euro Area written by Stefan Gerlach and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page 57 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Euro Area Sovereign Risk During the Crisis written by Ms.Silvia Sgherri and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2009-10-01 with total page 25 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: While the use of public resources is critical to cushion the impact of the financial crisis on the euro-area economy, it is key that the entailed fiscal costs not be seen by markets as undermining fiscal sustainability. From this perspective, to what extent do movements in euro area sovereign spreads reflect country-specific solvency concerns? In line with previous studies, the paper suggests that euro area sovereign risk premium differentials tend to comove over time and are mainly driven by a common time-varying factor, mimicking global risk repricing. Since October 2008, however, there is evidence that markets have become progressively more concerned about the potential fiscal implications of national financial sectors' frailty and future debt dynamics. The liquidity of sovereign bond markets still seems to play a significant (albeit fairly limited) role in explaining changes in euro area spreads.

Download or read book Banks Government Bonds and Default written by Nicola Gennaioli and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-07-08 with total page 53 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We analyze holdings of public bonds by over 20,000 banks in 191 countries, and the role of these bonds in 20 sovereign defaults over 1998-2012. Banks hold many public bonds (on average 9% of their assets), particularly in less financially-developed countries. During sovereign defaults, banks increase their exposure to public bonds, especially large banks and when expected bond returns are high. At the bank level, bondholdings correlate negatively with subsequent lending during sovereign defaults. This correlation is mostly due to bonds acquired in pre-default years. These findings shed light on alternative theories of the sovereign default-banking crisis nexus.

Download or read book The European Sovereign Debt Crisis written by Phoebus L. Athanassiou and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2021-08-23 with total page 165 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The European Sovereign Debt Crisis: Breaking the Vicious Circle between Sovereigns and Banks explains why the euro area’s progress towards reining in the risks arising from the well-documented bi-directional financial contagion transmission mechanism that links sovereigns to commercial banks has been more prominent compared to the channel of contagion moving from banks to sovereigns. Providing an analysis of the legal and regulatory measures that Europe and the euro area have taken to mitigate the exposure of sovereigns to financial crises generated by commercial banks, this book draws attention to areas where improvements to the arsenal of tools hitherto introduced are either desirable or necessary. Chapters further explain – with recourse to economic and legal arguments – why the channel of contagion moving from sovereigns to commercial banks has proven harder to close, and explores ways in which progress could be made in the direction of closing it so as to avert the risk of future banking sector crises. This work provides essential reading for students, researchers and practitioners with an interest in sovereign debt crises and the euro-area banking system.

Download or read book Monetary Policy Bank Bailouts and the Sovereign bank Risk Nexus in the Euro Area written by Marcel Fratzscher and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 49 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The paper analyses the empirical relationship between bank risk and sovereign credit risk in the euro area. Using structural VAR with daily financial markets data for 2003-13, the analysis confirms two-way causality between shocks to sovereign risk and bank risk, with the former being overall more important in explaining bank risk, than vice versa. The paper focuses specifically on the impact of non-standard monetary policy measures by the European Central Bank and on the effects of bank bailout policies by national governments. Testing specific hypotheses formulated in the literature, we find that bank bailout policies have reduced solvency risk in the banking sector, but partly at the expense of raising the credit risk of sovereigns. By contrast, monetary policy was in most, but not all cases effective in lowering credit risk among both sovereigns and banks. Finally, we find spillover effects in particular from sovereigns in the euro area periphery to the core countries.

Download or read book Sovereign Risk and Deposit Dynamics written by Mr.David A. Grigorian and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-09-07 with total page 24 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The unprecedented expansion of sovereign balance sheets since the global financial crisis has given a new meaning to the term sovereign risk. Developments in Europe since early 2010 presented new challenges for the functioning of private banks in an environment of heightened sovereign risk. This paper uses an innovative way of measuring the perception of sovereign risk and its impact on deposit dynamics during 2006–11. Using an extension of a common market discipline framework, it shows that exposure to sovereign risk may have limited the ability of banks in Europe to attract deposits. The results are robust to inclusion of conventional measures of bank performance and the sector-wide holdings of foreign sovereign debt.

Download or read book Bank and Sovereign Risk Interdependence in the Euro Area written by Tryphon Kollintzas and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 43 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We develop a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model to study bank risk and sovereign risk interdependence in the Euro Area. We find that an increase in capital investment risk shock, results in a considerably deeper recession when sovereign risk is also present. This result has three policy implications. First, Euro Area policies dealing with failing banks aggravated the recession. Second, although there has been a supranational effort with the creation of the EFSF/ESM to provide loans to sovereigns, as long as there is no direct mechanism for financial sector rescues, Euro Area policies continue to exacerbate the recession. Third, in favor of austerity measures used in the EA, we find that government spending multipliers are smaller in the presence of sovereign risk.

Download or read book Financial Crises Sovereign Risk and the Role of Institutions written by Dominik Maltritz and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2014-01-17 with total page 199 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The recent world economic crisis showed very clearly that financial crises and sovereign defaults are severe threats to economic and social prosperity. In addition, it became apparent that currency crises and banking crises often occur together and are closely related to sovereign debt crises and defaults. The present book contains new research on various important issues related to financial crises and sovereign default risk by leading experts in the field. The book discusses new modelling approaches to financial crises, defaults and their interdependencies. It also sheds light on the consequences of different sorts of crises for the trust in the institutions which are concerned with managing them. Moreover, it provides discussions of several institutional features of the EMU and the world financial system and in particular the risks inherent in these institutions. The book also includes interesting suggestions for solving crises and improving financial stability.

Download or read book Euro Area Policies written by International Monetary Fund. European Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-07-27 with total page 112 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This Selected Issues paper discusses the risks of low growth and inflation over the medium term for the euro area. It examines the consequences of longer term trends that predate the crisis and the progress made in addressing the crisis legacies of high unemployment and debt. The paper illustrates, in a downside scenario, how low potential growth and crisis legacies leave the euro area vulnerable to the risks of stagnation. The weak medium-term prospect and limited policy space leave the euro area vulnerable to shocks that could lead to a prolonged period of low growth and inflation. Model simulations suggest that a modest shock to investor confidence could push up risk premia and real interest rates, as policy space is constrained at the zero lower bound and fiscal policy space to provide stimulus is limited. Moreover, the lingering crisis legacies of high debt and unemployment could amplify the original shocks, creating a bad feedback loop and keeping the economy stuck in equilibrium of stagnation.

Download or read book Euro Area Policies written by International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-07-19 with total page 86 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Overall the resilience of large euro area banks has improved, but important vulnerabilities remain. Capital buffers are in aggregate sizeable relative to immediate threats, but some banks are especially vulnerable to credit risk and others to market risks, including a substantial rise in risk premia. The banking system as a whole has ample liquidity, against a backdrop of ECB support. At a structural level, low profitability is found in many banks across all business models, despite improving conjunctural conditions. The interconnectedness analysis shows that strong buffers are effective in dampening both vulnerabilities and onward transmission. Risks to financial stability relate mainly to tighter financial conditions, weaker growth, and policy and geopolitical uncertainties. The withdrawal of the United Kingdom from the EU (Brexit) could potentially disrupt financial market and services, and thus the wider economy. Also, policy reversals could hurt debt sustainability and test the cohesion of policy making in the union.

Download or read book Sovereign Risk and Cross Country Heterogeneity in the Transmission of Monetary Policy to Bank Lending in the Euro Area written by Pietro Grandi and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page 26 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Is the transmission of monetary policy to bank lending heterogeneous across euro area countries? This paper employs annual bank level data to test whether the bank lending channel of monetary policy was heterogeneous in the euro area over the period 2007-2016. To do so it follows a simple procedure that allows direct testing of how monetary policy affected similar banks located in different countries. Results indicate that the transmission of monetary policy to bank lending was heterogeneous across countries that were differently exposed to the sovereign debt crisis. On average, the same 1% cut in the policy rate led to a 1.6% increase in lending by banks located in non-stressed countries as opposed to a 0.4% increase for banks located in countries under severe sovereign stress. Unconventional monetary policy - as captured by the ECB shadow rate - was also unevenly transmitted to bank lending. Exposure to sovereign risk is identified as a key source of heterogeneity. Within stressed countries, banks with larger sovereign exposures reacted to monetary easing by expanding lending by less than banks with smaller exposures. As a result, monetary accommodation was smoothly transmitted to lending only by banks with limited exposure to sovereign risk. In response to the same 1% policy rate cut, the credit expansion of highly exposed stressed countries banks was instead 2.75% weaker than that of banks in non-stressed countries. These findings support existing evidence on sovereign risk having direct adverse consequences for bank lending and highlight the extent to which sovereign risk aggravated heterogeneities in the transmission on monetary policy to the real economy via the banking system during the euro area debt crisis.

Download or read book The Bank sovereign Loop and Financial Stability in the Euro Area written by Alessandro Fontana and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We propose a simple model that captures the link between bank and sovereign credit risk. It allows evaluating policy options to address this 'doom loop' in which the government may need to raise debt to recapitalise banks, and an increase in government debt raises sovereign risk and in turn generates potential bank losses via their (sovereign) bond holdings. Hence, an initial shock originating either in the banking or sovereign sector is amplified by the feedback relation. We set up a framework based on detailed actual bank balance sheets and test the model on 35 large EU banking groups, across 7 European countries. The effects of the feedback loops in most cases more than double the effect of the initial shock on bank losses and the sovereign risk premium. We show that a single EU bank resolution mechanism, European Stability Mechanism (ESM) direct bank recapitalisations, and bondholder "bail-in" can be effective to dampen the bank-sovereign loop. Addressing the home bias in banks sovereign bond holdings by reducing excessive exposure to domestic sovereigns has only limited benefit in terms of lower crisis doom loop effects as contagion effects increase.

Download or read book Sovereigns and Banks in the Euro Area written by Marta Gómez-Puig and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 50 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This study attempts to identify and trace inter-linkages between sovereign and banking risk in the euro area. To this end, we use an indicator of banking risk in each country based on the Contingent Claim Analysis literature, and 10-year government yield spreads over Germany as a measure of sovereign risk. We apply a dynamic approach to testing for Granger causality between the two measures of risk in 10 euro area countries, allowing us to check for contagion in the form of a significant and abrupt increase in short-run causal linkages. The empirical results indicate that episodes of contagion vary considerably in both directions over time and within the different EMU countries. Significantly, we find that causal linkages tend to strengthen particularly at the time of major financial crises. The empirical evidence suggests the presence of contagion, mainly from banks to sovereigns.