Download or read book Atlantic Hurricane Wind Probability Forecasting WINDPA written by Jerry D. Jarrell and published by . This book was released on 1981 with total page 28 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Atlantic Hurricane Wind Probability (WINDPA) program is documented. WINDPA provides the probability of selected Navy and Air Force bases either being struck by an Atlantic Ocean tropical cyclone or receiving winds of at least 30 or 50 kt. The basis for WINDPA estimates is discussed in comparison to a similar western Pacific program (WINDP). WINDPA estimates were subjected to independent reliability testing, the results of which are discussed.

Download or read book Atlantic Hurricane Wind Probablity Forcasting WINDPA written by Jerry D. Jerrell and published by . This book was released on 1983 with total page 19 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Scientific and Technical Aerospace Reports written by and published by . This book was released on 1982 with total page 638 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Lists citations with abstracts for aerospace related reports obtained from world wide sources and announces documents that have recently been entered into the NASA Scientific and Technical Information Database.

Download or read book Storm surge Forecasting written by J. W. Nickerson and published by . This book was released on 1971 with total page 114 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The report contains an adaptation of a unique storm-surge forecasting technique developed by Dr. C.P. Jelesnianski. This technique results in a computed storm surge profile at the inner boundary of an artificial standard basin seaward of the coast. The profile is derived from nomograms based upon a standard storm passing over a standard basin. Thumb rules and guidelines are presented in the publication for subjectively modifying the computer storm surge height as it moves shoreward of the artificial basin boundary, to fit the natural conditions of a particular coastline. Major advantages of this system are its applicability to almost any locale, its adaptability to data normally available to the field forecaster and the speed with which the forecast may be modified to remain current with natural fluctuations of the storm.

Download or read book Estimating the Probability of Hurricane Force Winds Affecting an Air Base written by S. J. Kimball and published by . This book was released on 1958 with total page 15 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This study provides an objective means of estimating the chances of a base being affected by hurricane winds of a storm whose forecast track indicates a possibility of the base being struck. It is based on errors in tropical-cyclone forecasts made during several recent years. Tables and nomographs are provided for both Atlantic-Caribbean and western North-Pacific areas. They are simple and quick to apply. It is requested that experiences with use of these aids be communicated to Headquarters Air Weather Service.

Download or read book Hurricanes of the North Atlantic written by James B. Elsner and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 1999-06-10 with total page 505 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Called the greatest storms on the planet, hurricanes of the North Atlantic Ocean often cause tremendous social and economic upheaval in the United States, Mexico, and the Caribbean. And with the increasing development of coastal areas, the impact of these storms will likely increase. This book provides a comprehensive analysis of North Atlantic hurricanes and what they mean to society. It is intended as an intermediary between hurricane climate research and the users of hurricane information. Topics include the climatology of tropical cyclones in general and those of the North Atlantic in particular; the major North Atlantic hurricanes, focusing on U.S. landfalling storms; the prediction models used in forecasting; and societal vulnerability to hurricanes, including ideas for modeling the relationship between climatological data and analysis in the social and economic sciences.

Download or read book Atlantic Hurricane Frequencies Along the U S Coastline written by Robert H. Simpson and published by . This book was released on 1971 with total page 22 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Hurricanes and Climate Change written by Jennifer M. Collins and published by Springer. This book was released on 2017-02-20 with total page 262 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book provides research that shows tropical cyclones are more powerful than in the past with the most dramatic increases occurring over the North Atlantic and with the strongest hurricanes. Although such increases are correlated with warming oceans and are consistent with the thermodynamic theory of hurricane intensity, there remains doubt about the interpretation, integrity, and meaning of these results. Arising from the 5th International Summit on Hurricanes and Climate Change, this book contains new research on topics related to hurricanes and climate change. Bringing together international leading academics and researchers on various sides of the debate, the book discusses new research and expresses opinions about what is happening and what might happen in the future with regard to regional and global hurricane (tropical cyclone) activity.

Download or read book Meteorological and Geoastrophysical Abstracts written by and published by . This book was released on 1982 with total page 1552 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book NAVENVPREDRSCHFAC Contractor Report CR written by and published by . This book was released on with total page 380 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Upper Wind Distribution Statistical Parameter Estimates written by Harold L. Crutcher and published by . This book was released on 1958 with total page 576 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The purpose of this publication is to place in the hands of the user derived estimates of some statistical parameters of wind distributions over the Northern Hemisphere. Some of the uses of these derived parameters are discussed in the referenced papers and therefore are not repeated here.

Download or read book Atlantic Hurricane Strike Probability Program STRIKPA written by Jerry D. Jarrell and published by . This book was released on 1981 with total page 36 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A program to accept Atlantic hurricane forecasts and create estimates of hurricane strike probabilities is described. The probabilities are based on a tri-modal bivariate normal distribution of forecast errors. The relationship of the occurrence of each mode to such predictors as motion components, geographical position and maximum wind is documented. Results of independent testing are reported. It is expected that strike probabilities will be available during the 1981 hurricane season. The format of input and a description of routine and special products are provided. (Author).

Download or read book Evaluation of the National Hurricane Center s 2010 Monte Carlo Wind Speed Probability Forecast Product Model written by Sarah Nicole Collins and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 178 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The wind speed probability forecast product (WPFP) developed by the Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA) and used by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) is evaluated for 155 verification sites in the Atlantic Basin for land-threatening and landfalling tropical cyclone events from 2004 - 2011. The Monte-Carlo wind speed probability (MWP) model produces the WPFP which issues the probability of occurrence (Cumulative Probability (CP)) and onset (Interval Probability (IP)) of the 34, 50 and 64 kt wind speed for a given forecast period (i.e. 12, 24, 36, 48, 72, 96, and 120 h). The WPFP is used by the 45th Weather Squadron (WS) to provide comprehensive meteorological support to Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS), the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Kennedy Space Center (KSC), and Patrick Air Force Base (PAFB). Although the MWP model has been previously evaluated, the model has undergone recent updates. In 2010, a method to statistically estimate the error of a consensus forecast using the spread of a small set of operational track forecast models, forecast storm intensity, and other parameters was included, producing what is termed the Goerss Predicted Consensus Error (GPCE). The addition of the GPCE values was in order to improve the uncertainty in the forecast. The affect of the GPCE modification on the 2010 MWP model is evaluated here. In order to better evaluate the 2010 MWP model the full data set is broken down into two characteristic subsets as well as two regional subsets. The characteristic subsets are broken down based on before/after closest approach where the first subset is before/after landfall and the second subset is before/after curvature. The regional subsets are two areas of interest to the 45th WS, that of East/Central Florida and Antigua. The model is evaluated using two statistical measures, the attributes diagram and decision thresholds. Mean squared difference is used alongside the attributes diagrams to evaluate the reliability of the forecast. Overall, the attributes diagrams indicate that the 2010 MWP model has better reliability than the previous model with 50 kt wind speed category exhibiting the best reliability. Combining the results of the attributes diagrams with the mean squared difference, the CP and IP demonstrate mixed results, however the contributing factor to an increased mean squared difference is the presence of bias (either underforecasting or overforecasting). The IP product forecasts display characteristics consistent with a rare event forecast (long-range forecasts, i.e. forecasts past 48 hrs) and a forecast of limited sample size (short-range forecast, i.e. forecast before 36 hrs). This is demonstrated by the mean squared difference with the short-range forecast having higher mean squared difference as a result of a limited sample size. The Antigua region exhibits a decrease in reliability for the 2010 MWP model CP forecast, which is poor reliability exhibiting little to no skill, and a higher mean squared difference. The East/Central Florida region also shows a slight decrease in reliability for the 2010 MWP model IP forecast with a slightly higher mean squared difference. The decision thresholds (based on the HSS and TSS) are used by the 45th WS to determine the risk of being impacted by an approaching TC. Overall, the decision thresholds have mixed results with some wind speed categories and forecast periods having increased decision thresholds and others having decreased. Forecasts which trend toward a binary distribution lead to an increase in decision threshold (a desirable outcome). In part, these results are intended for use by the 45th WS - specifically to assist with their methods for decision making and meteorological support to the CCAFS, KSC, and PAFB.

Download or read book Mariner s Guide for Hurricane Awareness in the North Atlantic Basin written by Eric J. Holweg and published by . This book was released on 2001-01-15 with total page 72 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This guide will aid the mariner in understanding the complex structure and behavior of tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic Ocean. Once armed with this knowledge, and the information on where to acquire forecasts and guidance for current tropical cyclones, the mariner can be prepared to "weather the storm" or better yet, avoid these catastrophic events altogether. This guide will discuss some ship routing and hurricane avoidance options with the intention of highlighting critical thought processes, risk analyses and required actions that should be considered in order to remain safe during the threat of a tropical cyclone at sea or in port. Originally published in color by the Tropical Prediction Center & the National Weather Service (TPC/NWS).

Download or read book Research Work in Tropical Meteorology written by and published by . This book was released on with total page 116 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book A Statistical Model to Forecast Short term Atlantic Hurricane Intensity written by Kevin T. Law and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 245 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Abstract: The accuracy of hurricane intensity forecasts has lagged the accuracy of hurricane track forecasts thereby creating a need for improvement. Many models struggle capturing the rapid intensification period and identifying when it will occur which causes a large amount of error in the intensity forecasts. The method described in this paper uses a discriminant function analysis (DFA) to help identify how intense the tropical cyclone will become and also how close it is to the rapid intensification period. Identifying the proximity to the rapid intensification period is a key factor in improving the intensity forecasts. Based upon the intensity and its proximity to its rapid intensification period, as selected by the DFA, an appropriate regression model is applied to forecast the 24-hour and 6-hour pressure reduction and wind speed increase. Other statistical intensity models apply the same regression model throughout the entire lifecycle of the tropical cyclone. This model relies on the premise that factors which cause intensification affect the tropical cyclone differently throughout its life cycle. Therefore, by using the DFA, different stages in its life cycle are identified, which allows the regression model to use the most significant variables at the particular stage. They are shown to improve the intensity forecasts at the stages leading up to and during the rapid intensification, which happen to be the most difficult stages to predict. The forecasts were validated with 13 independent case studies and compared with the official National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecasts.

Download or read book Hurricane Climatology written by James B. Elsner and published by OUP USA. This book was released on 2013-03-28 with total page 416 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Hurricane Climatology explains how to analyze and model hurricane data to better understand and predict present and future hurricane activity