Download or read book Assessment of Intraseasonal to Interannual Climate Prediction and Predictability written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2010-10-08 with total page 192 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: More accurate forecasts of climate conditions over time periods of weeks to a few years could help people plan agricultural activities, mitigate drought, and manage energy resources, amongst other activities; however, current forecast systems have limited ability on these time- scales. Models for such climate forecasts must take into account complex interactions among the ocean, atmosphere, and land surface. Such processes can be difficult to represent realistically. To improve the quality of forecasts, this book makes recommendations about the development of the tools used in forecasting and about specific research goals for improving understanding of sources of predictability. To improve the accessibility of these forecasts to decision-makers and researchers, this book also suggests best practices to improve how forecasts are made and disseminated.
Download or read book Assessment of Intraseasonal to Interannual Climate Prediction and Predictability written by Committee on Assessment of Intraseasonal to Interannual Climate Prediction and Predictability and published by . This book was released on 2010-09-08 with total page 192 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: More accurate forecasts of climate conditions over time periods of weeks to a few years could help people plan agricultural activities, mitigate drought, and manage energy resources, amongst other activities; however, current forecast systems have limited ability on these time- scales. Models for such climate forecasts must take into account complex interactions among the ocean, atmosphere, and land surface. Such processes can be difficult to represent realistically. To improve the quality of forecasts, this book makes recommendations about the development of the tools used in forecasting and about specific research goals for improving understanding of sources of predictability. To improve the accessibility of these forecasts to decision-makers and researchers, this book also suggests best practices to improve how forecasts are made and disseminated.
Download or read book Assessment of Intraseasonal to Interannual Climate Prediction and Predictability written by and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Assessment of Intraseasonal to Interannual Climate Prediction and Predictability written by National Research Council (U. and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Next Generation Earth System Prediction written by National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2016-08-22 with total page 351 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: As the nation's economic activities, security concerns, and stewardship of natural resources become increasingly complex and globally interrelated, they become ever more sensitive to adverse impacts from weather, climate, and other natural phenomena. For several decades, forecasts with lead times of a few days for weather and other environmental phenomena have yielded valuable information to improve decision-making across all sectors of society. Developing the capability to forecast environmental conditions and disruptive events several weeks and months in advance could dramatically increase the value and benefit of environmental predictions, saving lives, protecting property, increasing economic vitality, protecting the environment, and informing policy choices. Over the past decade, the ability to forecast weather and climate conditions on subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) timescales, i.e., two to fifty-two weeks in advance, has improved substantially. Although significant progress has been made, much work remains to make S2S predictions skillful enough, as well as optimally tailored and communicated, to enable widespread use. Next Generation Earth System Predictions presents a ten-year U.S. research agenda that increases the nation's S2S research and modeling capability, advances S2S forecasting, and aids in decision making at medium and extended lead times.
Download or read book Assessment of Intraseasonal to Interannual Climate Prediction and Predictability written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2010-09-08 with total page 193 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: More accurate forecasts of climate conditions over time periods of weeks to a few years could help people plan agricultural activities, mitigate drought, and manage energy resources, amongst other activities; however, current forecast systems have limited ability on these time- scales. Models for such climate forecasts must take into account complex interactions among the ocean, atmosphere, and land surface. Such processes can be difficult to represent realistically. To improve the quality of forecasts, this book makes recommendations about the development of the tools used in forecasting and about specific research goals for improving understanding of sources of predictability. To improve the accessibility of these forecasts to decision-makers and researchers, this book also suggests best practices to improve how forecasts are made and disseminated.
Download or read book Origins and predictability of the intraseasonal to interannual variabilities of regional climate written by Zhiwei Zhu and published by Frontiers Media SA. This book was released on 2023-01-13 with total page 395 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Prediction of Interannual Climate Variations written by J. Shukla and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-06-29 with total page 344 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: It has been known for some time that the behavior of the short-term fluctuations of the earth's atmosphere resembles that of a chaotic non-linear dynamical system, and that the day-to-day weather cannot be predicted beyond a few weeks. However, it has also been found that the interactions of the atmosphere with the underlying oceans and the land surfaces can produce fluctuations whose time scales are much longer than the limits of deterministic prediction of weather. It is, therefore, natural to ask whether it is possible that the seasonal and longer time averages of climate fluctuations can be predicted with sufficient skill to be beneficial for social and economic applications, even though the details of the day-to-day weather cannot be predicted beyond a few weeks. The main objective of the workshop was to address this question by assessing the current state of knowledge on predictability of seasonal and interannual climate variability and to investigate various possibilities for its prediction.
Download or read book The Climate Demon written by R. Saravanan and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2021-10-21 with total page 400 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Climate predictions - and the computer models behind them - play a key role in shaping public opinion and our response to the climate crisis. Some people interpret these predictions as 'prophecies of doom' and some others dismiss them as mere speculation, but the vast majority are only vaguely aware of the science behind them. This book gives a balanced view of the strengths and limitations of climate modeling. It covers historical developments, current challenges, and future trends in the field. The accessible discussion of climate modeling only requires a basic knowledge of science. Uncertainties in climate predictions and their implications for assessing climate risk are analyzed, as are the computational challenges faced by future models. The book concludes by highlighting the dangers of climate 'doomism', while also making clear the value of predictive models, and the severe and very real risks posed by anthropogenic climate change.
Download or read book Sub seasonal to Seasonal Prediction written by Andrew Robertson and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2018-10-24 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Gap Between Weather and Climate Forecasting: Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction is an ideal reference for researchers and practitioners across the range of disciplines involved in the science, modeling, forecasting and application of this new frontier in sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) prediction. It provides an accessible, yet rigorous, introduction to the scientific principles and sources of predictability through the unique challenges of numerical simulation and forecasting with state-of-science modeling codes and supercomputers. Additional coverage includes the prospects for developing applications to trigger early action decisions to lessen weather catastrophes, minimize costly damage, and optimize operator decisions. The book consists of a set of contributed chapters solicited from experts and leaders in the fields of S2S predictability science, numerical modeling, operational forecasting, and developing application sectors. The introduction and conclusion, written by the co-editors, provides historical perspective, unique synthesis and prospects, and emerging opportunities in this exciting, complex and interdisciplinary field.
Download or read book Prediction and Predictability of North American Seasonal Climate Variability written by Johnna M. Infanti and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Monthly and seasonal climate prediction of variables such as precipitation, temperature, and sea surface temperature (SST) is of current interest in the scientific research community, and also has implications for users in the agricultural and water management domains, among others. This dissertation studies a variety of approaches to seasonal climate prediction of variables over North America, including both climate prediction systems and methods of analysis. We utilize the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) System for Intra-Seasonal to Inter-Annual Prediction (ISI) to study seasonal climate prediction skill over North America. We also use the Community Climate System Model version 4.0 (CCSM4) to preformed targeted climate prediction experiments to study contributions to skill or predictability from SSTs, land and atmosphere initialization, and ocean-atmosphere coupling. While all can be considered important for predictions, we show that for winter predictions, SST errors are a leading cause in forecast degradation, and improvement of SSTs causes a significant improvement in skill. Climate models, including those involved in NMME, typically overestimate eastern Pacific warming during central Pacific El Niño events, which can affect precipitation predictions regions that are influenced by teleconnections, such as the southeast US. Land and atmosphere initialization, and the minimization of errors in these initial states, shows moderate improvement in skill, expected for the first seasonal lead. Finally, ocean-atmosphere coupling, in the context of this experiment design and in relation to prescribed SST versus fully coupled hindcasts, is a comparatively weak contribution to prediction skill and predictability.
Download or read book Making Climate Forecasts Matter written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 1999-05-27 with total page 189 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: El Nino has been with us for centuries, but now we can forcast it, and thus can prepare far in advance for the extreme climatic events it brings. The emerging ability to forecast climate may be of tremendous value to humanity if we learn how to use the information well. How does society cope with seasonal-to-interannual climatic variations? How have climate forecasts been usedâ€"and how useful have they been? What kinds of forecast information are needed? Who is likely to benefit from forecasting skill? What are the benefits of better forecasting? This book reviews what we know about these and other questions and identifies research directions toward more useful seasonal-to-interannual climate forecasts. In approaching their recommendations, the panel explores: Vulnerability of human activities to climate. State of the science of climate forecasting. How societies coevolved with their climates and cope with variations in climate. How climate information should be disseminated to achieve the best response. How we can use forecasting to better manage the human consequences of climate change.
Download or read book Sub seasonal to Seasonal Prediction written by Andrew Robertson and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2018-10-19 with total page 588 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Gap Between Weather and Climate Forecasting: Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction is an ideal reference for researchers and practitioners across the range of disciplines involved in the science, modeling, forecasting and application of this new frontier in sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) prediction. It provides an accessible, yet rigorous, introduction to the scientific principles and sources of predictability through the unique challenges of numerical simulation and forecasting with state-of-science modeling codes and supercomputers. Additional coverage includes the prospects for developing applications to trigger early action decisions to lessen weather catastrophes, minimize costly damage, and optimize operator decisions. The book consists of a set of contributed chapters solicited from experts and leaders in the fields of S2S predictability science, numerical modeling, operational forecasting, and developing application sectors. The introduction and conclusion, written by the co-editors, provides historical perspective, unique synthesis and prospects, and emerging opportunities in this exciting, complex and interdisciplinary field. Contains contributed chapters from leaders and experts in sub-seasonal to seasonal science, forecasting and applications Provides a one-stop shop for graduate students, academic and applied researchers, and practitioners in an emerging and interdisciplinary field Offers a synthesis of the state of S2S science through the use of concrete examples, enabling potential users of S2S forecasts to quickly grasp the potential for application in their own decision-making Includes a broad set of topics, illustrated with graphic examples, that highlight interdisciplinary linkages
Download or read book Knowledge Action Systems for Seasonal to Interannual Climate Forecasting written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2005-01-21 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The National Academies' Roundtable on Science and Technology for Sustainability hosted a workshop "Knowledge-Action Systems for Seasonal to Interannual Climate Forecasting" in 2004 to discover and distill general lessons about the design of effective systems for linking knowledge with action from the last decade's experience with the production and application of seasonal to interannual climate forecasts. Workshop participants described lessons they had learned based on their experiences developing, applying, and using decision support systems in the United States, Columbia, Brazil, and Australia. Some of the key lessons discussed, as characterized by David Cash and James Buizer, were that effective knowledge-action systems: define and frame the problem to be addressed via collaboration between knowledge users and knowledge producers; tend to be end-to-end systems that link user needs to basic scientific findings and observations; are often anchored in "boundary organizations" that act as intermediaries between nodes in the system - most notably between scientists and decision makers; feature flexible processes and institutions to be responsive to what is learned; use funding strategies tailored to the dual public/private character of such systems; and require people who can work across disciplines, issue areas, and the knowledgeâ€"action interface.
Download or read book Seasonal Climate Forecasting and Managing Risk written by Alberto Troccoli and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2008-01-29 with total page 462 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Originally formed around a set of lectures presented at a NATO Advanced Study Institute (ASI), this book has grown to become organised and presented rather more as a textbook than as a standard "collection of proceedings". This therefore is the first unified reference ‘textbook’ in seasonal to interannual climate predictions and their practical uses. Written by some of the world’s leading experts, the book covers a rapidly-developing science of prime social concern.
Download or read book Intraseasonal Variability in the Atmosphere Ocean Climate System written by William K.-M. Lau and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2007-06-10 with total page 477 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This is the first comprehensive review of intra-seasonal variability (ISV); the contents are balanced between observation, theory and modeling. Starting with an overview of ISV and historical observations, the book addresses the coupling between ocean and atmosphere, and the worldwide role of ISV in monsoon variability. Also considered are the connections between oscillations like the Madden, Julian and El Nino/Southern and short-term climate.
Download or read book Predictability of Weather and Climate written by Tim Palmer and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2014-07-10 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The topic of predictability in weather and climate has advanced significantly in recent years, both in understanding the phenomena that affect weather and climate and in techniques used to model and forecast them. This book, first published in 2006, brings together some of the world's leading experts on predicting weather and climate. It addresses predictability from the theoretical to the practical, on timescales from days to decades. Topics such as the predictability of weather phenomena, coupled ocean-atmosphere systems and anthropogenic climate change are among those included. Ensemble systems for forecasting predictability are discussed extensively. Ed Lorenz, father of chaos theory, makes a contribution to theoretical analysis with a previously unpublished paper. This well-balanced volume will be a valuable resource for many years. High-calibre chapter authors and extensive subject coverage make it valuable to people with an interest in weather and climate forecasting and environmental science, from graduate students to researchers.
