Download or read book Assessment of Global Model Simulations of Present and Future Climate written by Sujay Kulkarni and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 59 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Climate change has been one of the major issues of global economic and social concerns in the past decade. To quantitatively predict global climate change, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) of the United Nations have organized a multi-national effort to use global atmosphere-ocean models to project anthropogenically induced climate changes in the 21st century. The computer simulations performed with those models and archived by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project - Phase 5 (CMIP5) form the most comprehensive quantitative basis for the prediction of global environmental changes on decadal-to-centennial time scales. While the CMIP5 archives have been widely used for policy making, the inherent biases in the models have not been systematically examined. The main objective of this study is to validate the CMIP5 simulations of the 20th century climate with observations to quantify the biases and uncertainties in state-of-the-art climate models. Specifically, this work focuses on three major features in the atmosphere: the jet streams over the North Pacific and Atlantic Oceans and the low level jet (LLJ) stream over central North America which affects the weather in the United States, and the near-surface wind field over North America which is relevant to energy applications. The errors in the model simulations of those features are systematically quantified and the uncertainties in future predictions are assessed for stakeholders to use in climate applications. Additional atmospheric model simulations are performed to determine the sources of the errors in climate models. The results reject a popular idea that the errors in the sea surface temperature due to an inaccurate ocean circulation contributes to the errors in major atmospheric jet streams.
Download or read book Downscaling Techniques for High Resolution Climate Projections written by Rao Kotamarthi and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2021-02-11 with total page 213 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Downscaling is a widely used technique for translating information from large-scale climate models to the spatial and temporal scales needed to assess local and regional climate impacts, vulnerability, risk and resilience. This book is a comprehensive guide to the downscaling techniques used for climate data. A general introduction of the science of climate modeling is followed by a discussion of techniques, models and methodologies used for producing downscaled projections, and the advantages, disadvantages and uncertainties of each. The book provides detailed information on dynamic and statistical downscaling techniques in non-technical language, as well as recommendations for selecting suitable downscaled datasets for different applications. The use of downscaled climate data in national and international assessments is also discussed using global examples. This is a practical guide for graduate students and researchers working on climate impacts and adaptation, as well as for policy makers and practitioners interested in climate risk and resilience.
Download or read book The Future of the World s Climate written by Ann Henderson-Sellers and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2012-01-31 with total page 678 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "The study of climate today seems to be dominated by global warming, but these predictions of climatic models must be placed in their geological, paleo-climatic, and astronomical context to create a complete picture of the Earth's future climate. The Future of the World's Climate presents that perspective with data and projections that have emerged from more technologically advanced and accurate climate modeling"--Publisher's website.
Download or read book Climate Change and Policy written by Gabriele Gramelsberger and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2011-03-30 with total page 246 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The debate on how mankind should respond to climate change is diverse, as the appropriate strategy depends on global as well as local circumstances. As scientists are denied the possibility of conducting experiments with the real climate, only climate models can give insights into man-induced climate change, by experimenting with digital climates under varying conditions and by extrapolating past and future states into the future. But the ‘nature’ of models is a purely representational one. A model is good if it is believed to represent the relevant processes of a natural system well. However, a model and its results, in particular in the case of climate models which interconnect countless hypotheses, is only to some extent testable, although an advanced infrastructure of evaluation strategies has been developed involving strategies of model intercomparison, ensemble prognoses, uncertainty metrics on the system and component levels. The complexity of climate models goes hand in hand with uncertainties, but uncertainty is in conflict with socio-political expectations. However, certain predictions belong to the realm of desires and ideals rather than to applied science. Today’s attempt to define and classify uncertainty in terms of likelihood and confidence reflect this awareness of uncertainty as an integral part of human knowledge, in particular on knowledge about possible future developments. The contributions in this book give a first hand insight into scientific strategies in dealing with uncertainty by using simulation models and into social, political and economical requirements in future projections on climate change. Do these strategies and requirements meet each other or fail? The debate on how mankind should respond to climate change is diverse, as the appropriate strategy depends on global as well as local circumstances. As scientists are denied the possibility of conducting experiments with the real climate, only climate models can give insights into man-induced climate change, by experimenting with digital climates under varying conditions and by extrapolating past and future states into the future. But the 'nature' of models is a purely representational one. A model is good if it is believed to represent the relevant processes of a natural system well. However, a model and its results, in particular in the case of climate models which interconnect countless hypotheses, is only to some extent testable, although an advanced infrastructure of evaluation strategies has been developed involving strategies of model intercomparison, ensemble prognoses, uncertainty metrics on the system and component levels. The complexity of climate models goes hand in hand with uncertainties, but uncertainty is in conflict with socio-political expectations. However, certain predictions belong to the realm of desires and ideals rather than to applied science. Today's attempt to define and classify uncertainty in terms of likelihood and confidence reflect this awareness of uncertainty as an integral part of human knowledge, in particular on knowledge about possible future developments. The contributions in this book give a first hand insight into scientific strategies in dealing with uncertainty by using simulation models and into social, political and economical requirements in future projections on climate change. Do these strategies and requirements meet each other or fail? Gabriele Gramelsberger is Principal Investigator of the Collaborative Research Project is Principal Investigator of the Collaborative Research Project
Download or read book Climate Change Atlas written by A. Henderson-Sellers and published by Springer. This book was released on 1995-06-14 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: simulations. The simulations reported upon here 1. Introduction were conducted during 1991 and 1992. In all cases the models comprise an atmospheric GCM coupled The potential enhancement of the natural to a simplified upper ocean sub-model. The greenhouse effect has caught the attention of the enhanced greenhouse gas results are derived from public, scientists, policymakers and industrialists experiments in which an instantaneous increase of worldwide. It is now well known that the trace gases was imposed and the model climate concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere have been increasing since the allowed to come into equilibrium. Summary Industrial Revolution and current concern is that information on the models, the results and these increased concentrations of gases could result experiments are included in Table 1. Further in global and regional climatic changes. The impacts detailed descriptions of the models may be obtained from the MECCA CD prototype (Henderson-Sellers, of this enhanced greenhouse are not yet fully understood and may depend upon both the degree McGuffie et al. , 1994) and more explanatory and the speed of climatic change. Attempts to information about climate models can be found in improve understanding include numerical simulations Henderson-Sellers and McGuffie (1987). using Global Climate Models (GCMs): extensive computer programs that simulate the main The Climate Change Atlas is a means of visually atmospheric physical processes determining both representing, comparing and communicating the voluminous numerical results derived from current today's climate and also possible future climates.
Download or read book Simulations of Present and Future Climates in the Western U S with Four Nested Regional Climate Models written by and published by . This book was released on 2004 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We analyze simulations of present and future climates in the western U.S. performed with four regional climate models (RCMs) nested within two global ocean-atmosphere climate models. Our primary goal is to assess the range of regional climate responses to increased greenhouse gases in available RCM simulations. The four RCMs used different geographical domains, different increased greenhouse gas scenarios for future-climate simulations, and (in some cases) different lateral boundary conditions. For simulations of the present climate, we compare RCM results to observations and to results of the GCM that provided lateral boundary conditions to the RCM. For future-climate (increased greenhouse gas) simulations, we compare RCM results to each other and to results of the driving GCMs. When results are spatially averaged over the western U.S., we find that the results of each RCM closely follow those of the driving GCM in the same region, in both present and future climates. In present-climate simulations, the RCMs have biases in spatially-averaged simulated precipitation and near-surface temperature that seem to be very close to those of the driving GCMs. In future-climate simulations, the spatially-averaged RCM-projected responses in precipitation and near-surface temperature are also very close to those of the respective driving GCMs. Precipitation responses predicted by the RCMs are in many regions not statistically significant compared to interannual variability. Where the predicted precipitation responses are statistically significant, they are positive. The models agree that near-surface temperatures will increase, but do not agree on the spatial pattern of this increase. The four RCMs produce very different estimates of water content of snow in the present climate, and of the change in this water content in response to increased greenhouse gases.
Download or read book Ocean Wave Climate written by M. D. Earle and published by Springer. This book was released on 2012-11-25 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Waves critically affect man in coastal regions, including the open coasts and adjacent continental shelves. Preventing beach erosion, designing and building structures, designing and operating ships, providing marine forecasts, and coastal planning are but a few examples of projects for which extensive information about wave conditions is critical. Scientific studies, especially those in volving coastal processes and the development of better wave prediction models, also require wave condition information. How ever, wave conditions along and off the coasts of the United States have not been adequately determined. The main categories of available wave data are visual estimates of wave conditions made from ships at sea, scientific measurements of waves made for short time periods at specific locations, and a small number of long-term measurements made from piers or offshore platforms. With these considerations in mind, the National Ocean Survey of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration sponsored the Ocean Wave Climate Symposium at Herndon, Virginia, July 12-14, 1977. This volume contains papers presented at this symposium. A goal of the symposium was to establish the foundations for a com prehensive and far-sighted wave measurement and analysis program to fully describe the coastal wave climate of the United States. Emphasis was placed on ocean engineering and scientific uses of wave data, existing wave monitoring programs, and modern measure ment techniques which may provide currently needed data.
Download or read book Global Change written by Georg Götz and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-01-04 with total page 56 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The book consists of interviews with leading climate scientists. Experts on different aspects of the topic explain their own field and give their opinion on general questions concerning climate change. The interviews cover both fundamental research (climate modeling, global warming, sea level change, melting of the ice caps, natural hazards) and impact assessment (adaption, mitigation, economic impacts and costs of climate change). The goal is to provide the reader with first-hand information on the current state of climate research.
Download or read book Climate Change Modeling Methodology written by Philip J. Rasch and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-09 with total page 337 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Earth's average temperature has risen by 1.4°F over the past century, and computer models project that it will rise much more over the next hundred years, with significant impacts on weather, climate, and human society. Many climate scientists attribute these increases to the build up of greenhouse gases produced by the burning of fossil fuels and to the anthropogenic production of short-lived climate pollutants. Climate Change Modeling Methodologies: Selected Entries from the Encyclopaedia of Sustainability Science and Technology provides readers with an introduction to the tools and analysis techniques used by climate change scientists to interpret the role of these forcing agents on climate. Readers will also gain a deeper understanding of the strengths and weaknesses of these models and how to test and assess them. The contributions include a glossary of key terms and a concise definition of the subject for each topic, as well as recommendations for sources of more detailed information.
Download or read book The Climate Modelling Primer written by Kendal McGuffie and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2014-04-07 with total page 468 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: As a consequence of recent increased awareness of the social and political dimensions of climate, many non-specialists discover a need for information about the variety of available climate models. A Climate Modelling Primer, Fourth Edition is designed to explain the basis and mechanisms of all types of current physically-based climate models. A thoroughly revised and updated edition, this book will assist the reader in understanding the complexities and applicabilities of today’s wide range of climate models. Topics covered include the latest techniques for modelling the coupled biosphere-ocean-atmosphere system, information on current practical aspects of climate modelling and ways to evaluate and exploit the results, discussion of Earth System Models of Intermediate Complexity (EMICs), and interactive exercises based on Energy Balance Model (EBM) and the Daisyworld model. Source codes and results from a range of model types allows readers to make their own climate simulations and to view the results of the latest high resolution models. Now in full colour throughout and with the addition of cartoons to enhance student understanding the new edition of this successful textbook enables the student to tackle the difficult subject of climate modeling.
Download or read book Handbook of Climate Services written by Walter Leal Filho and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2020-01-17 with total page 519 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book explores climate services, including projections, descriptive information, analyses, assessments, and an overview of current trends. Due to the pressures now being put on the world’s climate, it is vital to gather and share reliable climate observation and projection data, which may be tailored for use by different groups. In other words, it is essential to offer climate services. But despite the growth in the use of these services, there are very few specialist publications on this topic. This book addresses that need. Apart from presenting studies and the results of research projects, the book also offers an overview of the wide range of means available for providing and using climate services. In addition, it features case studies that provide illustrative and inspiring examples of how climate services can be optimally deployed.
Download or read book Scientific Assessment of Climate Change written by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Working Group 1 and published by . This book was released on 1990 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Demystifying Climate Models written by Andrew Gettelman and published by Springer. This book was released on 2016-04-09 with total page 282 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book demystifies the models we use to simulate present and future climates, allowing readers to better understand how to use climate model results. In order to predict the future trajectory of the Earth’s climate, climate-system simulation models are necessary. When and how do we trust climate model predictions? The book offers a framework for answering this question. It provides readers with a basic primer on climate and climate change, and offers non-technical explanations for how climate models are constructed, why they are uncertain, and what level of confidence we should place in them. It presents current results and the key uncertainties concerning them. Uncertainty is not a weakness but understanding uncertainty is a strength and a key part of using any model, including climate models. Case studies of how climate model output has been used and how it might be used in the future are provided. The ultimate goal of this book is to promote a better understanding of the structure and uncertainties of climate models among users, including scientists, engineers and policymakers.
Download or read book Integrated Assessment Models of Climate Change Economics written by Zheng Wang and published by Springer. This book was released on 2017-03-10 with total page 186 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book describes the principles of integrated assessment models (IAM) for climate change economics and introduces various computable models for different development mechanisms under climate change governance. The authors present several new models they have constructed based on the RICE framework, specifically the MRICES((multi-factor RICE)) and EMRICES models, which incorporate global economic interactions into the RICE framework, and the CINCIA model, which describes technological advances and industrial structure evolution, introducing the mechanism of evolutionary economics. The models discussed in the book help governments and policy-makers tackle climate change and take positive measures on climate governance as well as promote economic and social development to narrow the gaps between countries.
Download or read book Climate Policy Assessment written by Mikiko Kainuma and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2011-06-28 with total page 416 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Asia–Pacific Integrated Model (AIM) brings together more than 20 computer simulation models for development and analysis of policy in such diverse fields as climate change mitigation, air pollution abatement, and ecosystem preservation. This first book in a series on the development of AIM focuses on climate change issues and the evaluation of policy options to stabilize the global climate. It presents an overview of the models developed to date, their structure, and the results and analyses presented to policymakers and researchers at the levels of individual Asian countries, the Asia–Pacific region, and the world at large. The contents vary in scope from local to global issues, with discussions of the effects of climate policies, cost analyses of climate policies with their effects on trade, and global scenario analyses. Also included are impact analyses and the effects of promoting environmental technologies.
Download or read book Climate Change 2021 The Physical Science Basis written by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2023-07-26 with total page 2410 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Working Group I contribution to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) provides a comprehensive assessment of the physical science basis of climate change. It considers in situ and remote observations; paleoclimate information; understanding of climate drivers and physical, chemical, and biological processes and feedbacks; global and regional climate modelling; advances in methods of analyses; and insights from climate services. It assesses the current state of the climate; human influence on climate in all regions; future climate change including sea level rise; global warming effects including extremes; climate information for risk assessment and regional adaptation; limiting climate change by reaching net zero carbon dioxide emissions and reducing other greenhouse gas emissions; and benefits for air quality. The report serves policymakers, decision makers, stakeholders, and all interested parties with the latest policy-relevant information on climate change. Available as Open Access on Cambridge Core.
Download or read book North Sea Region Climate Change Assessment written by Markus Quante and published by Springer. This book was released on 2016-08-31 with total page 555 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book offers an up-to-date review of our current understanding of climate change in the North Sea and adjacent areas, as well as its impact on ecosystems and socio-economic sectors. It provides a detailed assessment of climate change based on published scientific work compiled by independent international experts from climate-related disciplines such as oceanography, atmospheric sciences, marine and terrestrial ecology, using a regional evaluation and review process similar to that of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). It provides a comprehensive overview of all aspects of our changing climate, discussing a wide range of topics including past, current and future climate change, and climate-related changes in marine, terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems. It also explores the impact of climate change on socio-economic sectors such as fisheries, agriculture, coastal zone management, coastal protection, urban climate, recreation/tourism, offshore activities/energy, and air pollution.
