Download or read book Assessing Risks Through the Determination of Rare Event Probabilities written by Allan R. Sampson and published by . This book was released on 1980 with total page 47 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We consider the problem in risk assessment of evaluating the probability of occurrence of rare, but potentially catastrophic, events. The lack of historical data due to the sheer novelty of the event makes conventional statistical approaches inappropriate. The problem is compounded by the complex multivariate dependencies that may exist across potential event sites. In order to evaluate the likelihood of one or more such catastrophic events occuring, we provide an information theoretic model for merging a decision maker's opinion with expert judgment. Also provided is a methodology for the reconciling of conflicting expert judgments. This merging approach is invariant to the decision maker's viewpoint in the limiting case of exceptionally rare events. These methods are applied to case studies in likelihood assessment of Liquid Natural Gas tanker spills and seismic induced light water nuclear reactor meltdowns. (Author).
Download or read book Low Probability High Consequence Risk Analysis written by Ray Waller and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-11-21 with total page 561 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In recent years public attention has focused on an array of low-probability/high-consequence (LC/HC) events that pose a signif icant threat to human health, safety, and the environment. At the same time, public and private sector responsibilities for the assessment and management of such events have grown because of a perceived need to anticipate, prevent, or reduce the risks. In attempting to meet these responsibilities, legislative, judicial, regulatory, and private sector institutions have had to deal with the extraordinarily complex problem of assessing and balancing LP/ HC risks against the costs and ben if its of risk reduction. The need to help society cope with LP/HC events such as nuclear power plant accidents, toxic spills, chemical plant explosions, and transportation accidents has given rise to the development of a new intellectual endeavor: LP/HC risk analysis. The scope and complexity of these analyses require a high degree of cooperative effort on the part of specialists from many f~elds. Analyzing technical, social, and value issues requires the efforts of physicists, biologists, geneticists, statisticians, chemists, engineers, political scientists, sociologists, decision analysts, management scientists, economists, psychologists, ethicists, lawyers, and policy analysts. Included in this volume are papers by authors in each of these disciplines. The papers share in common a focus on one or more of the following questions that are generic to the analysis of LP/HC risks.
Download or read book Uncertainty in Risk Assessment written by Terje Aven and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2013-12-17 with total page 152 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Explores methods for the representation and treatment of uncertainty in risk assessment In providing guidance for practical decision-making situations concerning high-consequence technologies (e.g., nuclear, oil and gas, transport, etc.), the theories and methods studied in Uncertainty in Risk Assessment have wide-ranging applications from engineering and medicine to environmental impacts and natural disasters, security, and financial risk management. The main focus, however, is on engineering applications. While requiring some fundamental background in risk assessment, as well as a basic knowledge of probability theory and statistics, Uncertainty in Risk Assessment can be read profitably by a broad audience of professionals in the field, including researchers and graduate students on courses within risk analysis, statistics, engineering, and the physical sciences. Uncertainty in Risk Assessment: Illustrates the need for seeing beyond probability to represent uncertainties in risk assessment contexts. Provides simple explanations (supported by straightforward numerical examples) of the meaning of different types of probabilities, including interval probabilities, and the fundamentals of possibility theory and evidence theory. Offers guidance on when to use probability and when to use an alternative representation of uncertainty. Presents and discusses methods for the representation and characterization of uncertainty in risk assessment. Uses examples to clearly illustrate ideas and concepts.
Download or read book Estimation of Rare Event Probabilities in Complex Aerospace and Other Systems written by Jerome Morio and published by Woodhead Publishing. This book was released on 2015-11-16 with total page 217 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Rare event probability (10-4 and less) estimation has become a large area of research in the reliability engineering and system safety domains. A significant number of methods have been proposed to reduce the computation burden for the estimation of rare events from advanced sampling approaches to extreme value theory. However, it is often difficult in practice to determine which algorithm is the most adapted to a given problem.Estimation of Rare Event Probabilities in Complex Aerospace and Other Systems: A Practical Approach provides a broad up-to-date view of the current available techniques to estimate rare event probabilities described with a unified notation, a mathematical pseudocode to ease their potential implementation and finally a large spectrum of simulation results on academic and realistic use cases. Provides a broad overview of the practical approach of rare event methods. Includes algorithms that are applied to aerospace benchmark test cases Offers insight into practical tuning issues
Download or read book NASA SP 7500 written by United States. National Aeronautics and Space Administration and published by . This book was released on 1982 with total page 814 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Management written by and published by . This book was released on 1978 with total page 732 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Scientific and Technical Aerospace Reports written by and published by . This book was released on 1981 with total page 788 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Reactor Safety Study an Assessment of Accident Risks in U S Commercial Nuclear Power Plants written by and published by . This book was released on 1975 with total page 240 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book System Safety Engineering and Risk Assessment written by Nicholas J. Bahr and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2018-10-08 with total page 444 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We all know that safety should be an integral part of the systems that we build and operate. The public demands that they are protected from accidents, yet industry and government do not always know how to reach this common goal. This book gives engineers and managers working in companies and governments around the world a pragmatic and reasonable approach to system safety and risk assessment techniques. It explains in easy-to-understand language how to design workable safety management systems and implement tested solutions immediately. The book is intended for working engineers who know that they need to build safe systems, but aren’t sure where to start. To make it easy to get started quickly, it includes numerous real-life engineering examples. The book’s many practical tips and best practices explain not only how to prevent accidents, but also how to build safety into systems at a sensible price. The book also includes numerous case studies from real disasters that describe what went wrong and the lessons learned. See What’s New in the Second Edition: New chapter on developing government safety oversight programs and regulations, including designing and setting up a new safety regulatory body, developing safety regulatory oversight functions and governance, developing safety regulations, and how to avoid common mistakes in government oversight Significantly expanded chapter on safety management systems, with many practical applications from around the world and information about designing and building robust safety management systems, auditing them, gaining internal support, and creating a safety culture New and expanded case studies and "Notes from Nick’s Files" (examples of practical applications from the author’s extensive experience) Increased international focus on world-leading practices from multiple industries with practical examples, common mistakes to avoid, and new thinking about how to build sustainable safety management systems New material on safety culture, developing leading safety performance indicators, safety maturity model, auditing safety management systems, and setting up a safety knowledge management system
Download or read book Probabilistic Risk Analysis written by Tim Bedford and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2001-04-30 with total page 228 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A graduate level textbook on probabilistic risk analysis, aimed at statisticians, operations researchers and engineers.
Download or read book Coming Home to Math written by Irving P. Herman and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2020 with total page 445 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We use numbers here, there and everywhere -- Numbers are some of my favorite things -- Linking numbers : operations on numbers -- Words and numbers : being careful -- Writing really big and really small numbers, and those in-between -- Touching all bases, at times with logs -- Numbers need to be exact, but it ain't necessarily so -- The different types of numbers have not evolved, but our understanding of them has -- Really, really big and really, really small numbers -- The whole truth of whole numbers -- The math of the digital world : modular arithmetic (or using number leftovers) -- The math of what will be : progressions of growth and decay -- Untangling the worlds of probability and statistics -- The math of what might be : probability - what are the odds? -- The math of what was : statistics - the good, the bad, and the evil -- The math of big data -- The math of optimization, ranking, voting, and allocation -- The math of gaming -- The math of risk.
Download or read book Geometric Sums Bounds for Rare Events with Applications written by Vladimir V. Kalashnikov and published by Springer. This book was released on 2014-03-14 with total page 270 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book reviews problems associated with rare events arising in a wide range of circumstances, treating such topics as how to evaluate the probability an insurance company will be bankrupted, the lifetime of a redundant system, and the waiting time in a queue. Well-grounded, unique mathematical evaluation methods of basic probability characteristics concerned with rare events are presented, which can be employed in real applications, as the volume also contains relevant numerical and Monte Carlo methods. The various examples, tables, figures and algorithms will also be appreciated. Audience: This work will be useful to graduate students, researchers and specialists interested in applied probability, simulation and operations research.
Download or read book The Owner s Role in Project Risk Management written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2005-02-25 with total page 102 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Effective risk management is essential for the success of large projects built and operated by the Department of Energy (DOE), particularly for the one-of-a-kind projects that characterize much of its mission. To enhance DOE's risk management efforts, the department asked the NRC to prepare a summary of the most effective practices used by leading owner organizations. The study's primary objective was to provide DOE project managers with a basic understanding of both the project owner's risk management role and effective oversight of those risk management activities delegated to contractors.
Download or read book Risk Assessment and Decision Analysis with Bayesian Networks written by Norman Fenton and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2018-09-03 with total page 638 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Since the first edition of this book published, Bayesian networks have become even more important for applications in a vast array of fields. This second edition includes new material on influence diagrams, learning from data, value of information, cybersecurity, debunking bad statistics, and much more. Focusing on practical real-world problem-solving and model building, as opposed to algorithms and theory, it explains how to incorporate knowledge with data to develop and use (Bayesian) causal models of risk that provide more powerful insights and better decision making than is possible from purely data-driven solutions. Features Provides all tools necessary to build and run realistic Bayesian network models Supplies extensive example models based on real risk assessment problems in a wide range of application domains provided; for example, finance, safety, systems reliability, law, forensics, cybersecurity and more Introduces all necessary mathematics, probability, and statistics as needed Establishes the basics of probability, risk, and building and using Bayesian network models, before going into the detailed applications A dedicated website contains exercises and worked solutions for all chapters along with numerous other resources. The AgenaRisk software contains a model library with executable versions of all of the models in the book. Lecture slides are freely available to accredited academic teachers adopting the book on their course.
Download or read book Risk Analysis for Dam Safety Evaluation written by Jery R. Stedinger and published by . This book was released on 1996 with total page 84 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Probability Theory written by E. T. Jaynes and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2003-04-10 with total page 764 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The standard rules of probability can be interpreted as uniquely valid principles in logic. In this book, E. T. Jaynes dispels the imaginary distinction between 'probability theory' and 'statistical inference', leaving a logical unity and simplicity, which provides greater technical power and flexibility in applications. This book goes beyond the conventional mathematics of probability theory, viewing the subject in a wider context. New results are discussed, along with applications of probability theory to a wide variety of problems in physics, mathematics, economics, chemistry and biology. It contains many exercises and problems, and is suitable for use as a textbook on graduate level courses involving data analysis. The material is aimed at readers who are already familiar with applied mathematics at an advanced undergraduate level or higher. The book will be of interest to scientists working in any area where inference from incomplete information is necessary.
Download or read book Advanced Risk Analysis in Engineering Enterprise Systems written by Cesar Ariel Pinto and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2016-04-19 with total page 451 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Since the emerging discipline of engineering enterprise systems extends traditional systems engineering to develop webs of systems and systems-of-systems, the engineering management and management science communities need new approaches for analyzing and managing risk in engineering enterprise systems. Advanced Risk Analysis in Engineering Enterpri
