Download or read book Assessing Fiscal Sustainability Under Uncertainty written by Theodore Barnhill and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Unlike conventional fiscal sustainability assessments, the Value-at-Risk approach developed in this paper explicitly captures the contribution of key risk variables to public sector vulnerability. In an illustrative application to Ecuador, the VaR approach confirms a significant risk of government financial failure stemming from the volatility and comovements of the exchange rate, interest rates, oil prices, and output. Although dollarization has helped attenuate fiscal vulnerability, the volatility of sovereign spreads and of oil prices remain major sources of risk for Ecuador's public sector. The paper concludes with a discussion of policy implications, an evaluation of the methodology, and suggestions for future research.
Download or read book Assessing Fiscal Sustainability Under Uncertainity written by Mr.George Kopits and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2003-04-01 with total page 35 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Unlike conventional fiscal sustainability assessments, the Value-at-Risk approach developed in this paper explicitly captures the contribution of key risk variables to public sector vulnerability. In an illustrative application to Ecuador, the VaR approach confirms a significant risk of government financial failure stemming from the volatility and comovements of the exchange rate, interest rates, oil prices, and output. Although dollarization has helped attenuate fiscal vulnerability, the volatility of sovereign spreads and of oil prices remain major sources of risk for Ecuador's public sector. The paper concludes with a discussion of policy implications, an evaluation of the methodology, and suggestions for future research.
Download or read book Assessing Fiscal Sustainability in Theory and Practice written by Nigel Chalk and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 27 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The main purpose of this paper is to provide an overview of approaches to assessing fiscal sustainability. It summarizes the general analytical background, focusing on the present value budget constraint, which is the benchmark against which solvency is determined, tests of sustainability (including sustainability indicators), and sustainability and uncertainty. The paper then looks at the way in which fiscal sustainability has been assessed in different types of IMF work. Finally the link between fiscal and external sustainability is discussed.
Download or read book Assessing Fiscal Sustainability in Theory and Practice written by Nigel Andrew Chalk and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2000-04 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The main purpose of this paper is to provide an overview of approaches to assessing fiscal sustainability. It summarizes the general analytical background, focusing on the present value budget constraint, which is the benchmark against which solvency is determined, tests of sustainability (including sustainability indicators), and sustainability and uncertainty. The paper then looks at the way in which fiscal sustainability has been assessed in different types of IMF work. Finally the link between fiscal and external sustainability is discussed.
Download or read book Public Debt Sustainability Under Uncertainty written by Rossen Rozenov and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-03-13 with total page 28 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The paper offers an approach to assessing the sustainability of public debt taking into account the effect of fiscal policy on output, as well as uncertainty in the model parameters and system dynamics. Uncertainty is specified in general terms, and the analysis is based on the notion of invariant sets. Examples are provided to illustrate how the method can be applied in practice.
Download or read book A Framework for Assessing Fiscal Sustainability and External Viability with An Application to India written by Ms.Karen Elizabeth Parker and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1993-10-01 with total page 41 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper presents a simple macroeconomic simulation model which can be used to evaluate alternative fiscal strategies and their implications for external viability. It attempts to bridge the gap between the literature on fiscal sustainability and the demands of operational work. The framework, developed in a spreadsheet format, generates estimates of public spending compatible with identified targets for growth, inflation and domestic and foreign borrowing. The difference between the spending path consistent with these targets and that based on current policies is the fiscal adjustment required to meet the authorities’ macroeconomic objectives. Alternatively, the framework can be used to assess the implications for inflation, interest rates and public indebtendess of a given spending path. Finally, one can analyze the impact of financial reform on fiscal and external performance. The model is applied to India to illustrate the types of simulations that may be conducted.
Download or read book Assesing Fiscal Sustainability Under Uncertainty written by Theodore M. Barnhill and published by . This book was released on 2003 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Fiscal Sustainability written by Mr.Evan Tanner and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-04-22 with total page 49 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper critically reviews recent work regarding the sustainability of public debt. It argues that Debt Sustainability Analyses (DSAs) should be more than mere mechanical simulation exercises. Instead, a DSA should be linked to some objective regarding the distribution of fiscal burdens and distortions over time (in the tradition of Barro’s 1979 tax smoothing objective). The paper discusses objective functions that yield simple and transparent fiscal policy rules.
Download or read book Assessing Fiscal Sustainability Under Uncertancy written by Theodore M. Barnhill and published by . This book was released on 2003 with total page 33 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Assessing Fiscal Sustainability with Altrnative Methodologies written by Humberto Mora and published by . This book was released on 2004 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Assessing Fiscal Sustainability written by E. Croce and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: To monitor fiscal sustainability, this paper proposes a recursive algorithm derived from the law of motion of the debt-to-GDP ratio, subject to a government reaction function that links convergence to the targeted debt ratio with primary fiscal surpluses. Based on quarterly estimates of this algorithm in the 1990s, 12 developed and developing countries are ranked according to their degree of sustainability. For a number of countries, the paper finds evidence of causality between the fiscal policy stance and growth-adjusted real interest rates.
Download or read book Quantitative Approaches to Fiscal Sustainability Analysis written by Nina Budina and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 48 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Fiscal sustainability analysis (FSA) is an important component of macroeconomic analysis. The authors review various quantitative approaches to FSA with a major objective to bring these approaches together and to present a user-friendly tool for FSA that reflects modern developments. They combine a dynamic simulations approach with a simplified version of the steady-state consistency approach. They also incorporate two different methods to deal with uncertainty: user-defined stress tests and stochastic simulations. The tool goes further by evaluating the required fiscal adjustment as a consequence of the stochastic realizations of the exogenous variables. Furthermore, the fiscal sustainability tool incorporates an endogenous debt feedback rule for the primary surplus, a fiscal policy reaction function. Besides outlining the theoretical framework, the authors also present a case study for Turkey.
Download or read book Assessing Fiscal Sustainability a Cross Country Comparison written by Enzo Croce and published by . This book was released on 2003 with total page 33 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Exploring Risk Adjusted Fiscal Sustainability Analysis for Asian Economies written by George Kopits and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 38 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The paper explores risk-based fiscal analytical approaches to complement a standard debt sustainability analysis when applied under conditions of risk and uncertainty. To outline a possible road map for risk-adjusted fiscal sustainability analysis, the paper first examines the types of vulnerability faced by different emerging economies in Asia and reviews a range of stochastic methods that attempt to explicitly incorporate risk in their analysis. Drawing on international experience, we note that the usefulness of applying a stochastic approach hinges on policy makers' capacity to identify the sources and extent of risks in assessing fiscal sustainability, which should then allow them to simulate the impact of a hypothetical corrective action on the baseline trajectory of debt or net worth and on its stochastic distribution, including fat-tail risks of default.
Download or read book A Framework for Assessing Fiscal Vulnerability written by Murray Petrie and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2000 with total page 28 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Fiscal vulnerability describes a situation where a government is exposed to the possibility of failure to meet its aggregate fiscal policy objectives. The focus in this paper is on fiscal vulnerability from a macroeconomic perspective, and the suggested framework for assessing vulnerability highlights four macro-fiscal aspects of vulnerability: incorrect specification of the initial fiscal position; sensitivity of short-term fiscal outcomes to risk; threats to longer- term fiscal sustainability; and structural or institutional weaknesses affecting the design and implementation of fiscal policy.
Download or read book Assessing Fiscal Sustainability in Theory and Practice Richard Hemming written by Nigel Chalk and published by . This book was released on 2000 with total page 27 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Indicators of Fiscal Sustainability written by Jocelyn Horne and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper assesses the usefulness of summary measures of fiscal sustainability for the purpose of multilateral surveillance. An overview of the main conceptual issues is first presented. Next, an assessment is made of the strengths and weaknesses of the summary measures in the context of their recent application to industrial countries by the OECD and the Fund. The measures are shown to highlight the inadequacy of using trends in public debt ratios to assess sustainability. However, the measures and their recent application are subject to a number of caveats, in particular in relation to their sensitivity to the discount rate, time paths of government expenditures and private sector behavior.
