Download or read book Assessing Default Probabilities from Structural Credit Risk Models written by Wei Wang and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 58 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this paper, we study the empirical performance of structural credit risk models by examining the default probabilities calculated from these models with different time horizons. The parameters of the models are estimated from firm's bond and equity prices. The models studied include Merton (1974), Merton model with stochastic interest rate, Longstaff and Schwartz (1995), Leland and Toft (1996) and Collin-Dufresne and Goldstein (2001). The sample firms chosen are those that have only one bond outstanding when bond prices are observed. We first find that when the Maximum Likelihood estimation, introduced in Duan (1994), is used to estimate the Merton model from bond prices, the estimated volatility is unreasonable high and the estimation process does not converge for most of the firms in our sample. This shows that the Merton (1974) is not able to generate high yields to match the empirical observations. On the other hand, when equity prices are used as input we find that the default probabilities predicted for investment-grade firms by Merton (1974) are all close to zero. When stochastic interest rates are assumed in Merton model, the model performance is improved. The models of Longstaff and Schwartz (1995) with constant interest rate as well as the Leland and Toft (1996) provide quite reasonable predictions on real default probabilities when compared with those reported by Moody's and Samp;P. However, Collin-Dufresnce and Goldstein (2001) predict unreasonably high default probabilities for longer time horizons.
Download or read book Credit Risk Modeling Valuation and Hedging written by Tomasz R. Bielecki and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-03-14 with total page 517 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The motivation for the mathematical modeling studied in this text on developments in credit risk research is the bridging of the gap between mathematical theory of credit risk and the financial practice. Mathematical developments are covered thoroughly and give the structural and reduced-form approaches to credit risk modeling. Included is a detailed study of various arbitrage-free models of default term structures with several rating grades.
Download or read book Introduction to Credit Risk Modeling written by Christian Bluhm and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2016-04-19 with total page 386 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Contains Nearly 100 Pages of New MaterialThe recent financial crisis has shown that credit risk in particular and finance in general remain important fields for the application of mathematical concepts to real-life situations. While continuing to focus on common mathematical approaches to model credit portfolios, Introduction to Credit Risk Modelin
Download or read book Credit Risk Management In and Out of the Financial Crisis written by Anthony Saunders and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2010-04-16 with total page 373 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A classic book on credit risk management is updated to reflect the current economic crisis Credit Risk Management In and Out of the Financial Crisis dissects the 2007-2008 credit crisis and provides solutions for professionals looking to better manage risk through modeling and new technology. This book is a complete update to Credit Risk Measurement: New Approaches to Value at Risk and Other Paradigms, reflecting events stemming from the recent credit crisis. Authors Anthony Saunders and Linda Allen address everything from the implications of new regulations to how the new rules will change everyday activity in the finance industry. They also provide techniques for modeling-credit scoring, structural, and reduced form models-while offering sound advice for stress testing credit risk models and when to accept or reject loans. Breaks down the latest credit risk measurement and modeling techniques and simplifies many of the technical and analytical details surrounding them Concentrates on the underlying economics to objectively evaluate new models Includes new chapters on how to prevent another crisis from occurring Understanding credit risk measurement is now more important than ever. Credit Risk Management In and Out of the Financial Crisis will solidify your knowledge of this dynamic discipline.
Download or read book Advanced Credit Risk Analysis written by Didier Cossin and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2001 with total page 384 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Advanced Credit Analysis presents the latest and most advanced modelling techniques in the theory and practice of credit risk pricing and management. The book stresses the logic of theoretical models from the structural and the reduced-form kind, their applications and extensions. It shows the mathematical models that help determine optimal collateralisation and marking-to-market policies. It looks at modern credit risk management tools and the current structuring techniques available with credit derivatives.
Download or read book Credit Risk written by Niklas Wagner and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2008-05-28 with total page 600 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Featuring contributions from leading international academics and practitioners, Credit Risk: Models, Derivatives, and Management illustrates how a risk management system can be implemented through an understanding of portfolio credit risks, a set of suitable models, and the derivation of reliable empirical results. Divided into six sectio
Download or read book Credit Risk Models and Management written by David Shimko and published by Risk. This book was released on 2004 with total page 670 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Building upon the seminal work established in the first best selling edition, this fully revised multi-author reference collection brings you up-to date with a complete and cohesive examination on the latest techniques for credit risk assessment and management
Download or read book Credit Risk Recent Advances written by Martin Knoch and published by diplom.de. This book was released on 1999-11-12 with total page 114 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Inhaltsangabe:Abstract: We discuss the main approaches to quantify the risk of losses arising from a defaulting counterparty to a financial transaction that have been developed over the last 25 years. Every existing method faces major problems in assessing the numerous and partly non-observable factors influencing credit risk. One shortcoming common to all methods is the classical normal assumption for interest rate changes and asset returns. Therefore we suggest the introduction of stable Paretian models to yield more realistic credit spreads. Inhaltsverzeichnis:Table of Contents: 1.Introduction 2.Basic Properties of Credit Risk Models 2.1Financial Position 2.2Default Probability 2.3The Price Of Credit Risk 3.Structural Models 3.1Structural Models With Constant Interest Rates 3.2Structural Models With Stochastic Interest Rates 4.Reduced Form Models 4.1Terminology of Reduced Form Models 4.1.1Credit Risk and Credit Events 4.1.2Rating Categories and Transition Matrices 4.2Reduced Form Modesl With Default Rates 4.3Reduced Form Models With Rating Transitions 4.3.1Modelling Rating Histories With Markov Chains 4.3.2The Introduction of Pseudo-Probabilities 4.3.3Parameter Estimation 5.Models With Implied Credit Spread 6.Hybrid Models 6.1Rating Transitions 6.2Forward Prices 6.3The Distribution of Values 6.3.1Distributions in Credit Risk and Market Risk Measurement 6.4Expected Loss 6.5Unexpected Loss 6.6Example 7.Rating Categories 7.1Alternative Credit Analysis And Rating Methodology 7.2Example. Standard&Poor s Corporate Rating 7.2.1Rating Categories 7.2.2The Rating Process 7.2.3Credit Analysis Factors 7.3Split Ratings 8.Transition Matrices 8.1Default Probabilities 8.1.1Estimating Default Probabilities 8.1.2Errors Arising From Default Estimation 8.1.3Refining Rating Categories 8.2Properties of Transition Matrices in a Markov Model 8.2.1The Markov Property 8.2.2Monotonicity of Rating Transitions 8.2.3Adjusting Transition Matrices for the Markov Property and Monotonicity 8.3Conditional Rating Migrations 9.Recovery Rates 10.The Term Structure of Credit Spreads 10.1Risk Factors With An Impact On Credit Spreads 10.2Volatility of Credit Spreads 10.2.1The Distribution of Yield Spreads 11.Challenges in Assessing Portfolio Credit Risk 11.1Joint Rating Migrations 11.2Expected and Unexpected Losses of a Portfolio 11.3Estimating Correlations 11.4Monte Carlo Simulation 12Assessing Credit Risk With Stable [...]
Download or read book An Empirical Evaluation of Structural Credit Risk Models written by Nikola A. Tarashev and published by . This book was released on 2005 with total page 56 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper evaluates empirically the performance of six structural credit risk models by comparing the probabilities of default (PDs) they deliver to ex post default rates. In contrast to previous studies pursuing similar objectives, the paper employs firm-level data and finds that theory-based PDs tend to match closely the actual level of credit risk and to account for its time path. At the same time, nonmodelled macro variables from the financial and real sides of the economy help to substantially improve the forecasts of default rates. The finding suggests that theory-based PDs fail to fully reflect the dependence of credit risk on the business and credit cycles. Most of the upbeat conclusions regarding the performance of the PDs are due to models with endogenous default. For their part, frameworks that assume exogenous default tend to underpredict credit risk. Three borrower characteristics influence materially the predictions of the models: the leverage ratio; the default recovery rate; and the risk-free rate of return.
Download or read book The Credit Market Handbook written by H. Gifford Fong and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2006-02-02 with total page 254 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In The Credit Market Handbook, financial expert and Editor H. Gifford Fong has assembled a group of prominent professionals and academics familiar with the credit arena. In each chapter, a different expert analyzes a different issue related to today's dynamic credit market, including portfolio credit risk, valuation models, and the importance of modeling credit default. In bringing together these noted authors and their work, Fong provides you with a rich framework of research in the area of credit analysis. Some of the topics discussed within this comprehensive guide include: * Estimating default probabilities implicit in equity prices * Structural versus reduced form models: a new information-based perspective * Valuing high-yield bonds * Predictions of default probabilities in structural models of debt * And much more Filled with in-depth insight and expert advice, this invaluable resource offers you the critical information you need to succeed within today's credit market.
Download or read book Credit Risk written by Darrell Duffie and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2012-01-12 with total page 415 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this book, two of America's leading economists provide the first integrated treatment of the conceptual, practical, and empirical foundations for credit risk pricing and risk measurement. Masterfully applying theory to practice, Darrell Duffie and Kenneth Singleton model credit risk for the purpose of measuring portfolio risk and pricing defaultable bonds, credit derivatives, and other securities exposed to credit risk. The methodological rigor, scope, and sophistication of their state-of-the-art account is unparalleled, and its singularly in-depth treatment of pricing and credit derivatives further illuminates a problem that has drawn much attention in an era when financial institutions the world over are revising their credit management strategies. Duffie and Singleton offer critical assessments of alternative approaches to credit-risk modeling, while highlighting the strengths and weaknesses of current practice. Their approach blends in-depth discussions of the conceptual foundations of modeling with extensive analyses of the empirical properties of such credit-related time series as default probabilities, recoveries, ratings transitions, and yield spreads. Both the "structura" and "reduced-form" approaches to pricing defaultable securities are presented, and their comparative fits to historical data are assessed. The authors also provide a comprehensive treatment of the pricing of credit derivatives, including credit swaps, collateralized debt obligations, credit guarantees, lines of credit, and spread options. Not least, they describe certain enhancements to current pricing and management practices that, they argue, will better position financial institutions for future changes in the financial markets. Credit Risk is an indispensable resource for risk managers, traders or regulators dealing with financial products with a significant credit risk component, as well as for academic researchers and students.
Download or read book Credit Derivatives Revised Edition written by George Chacko and published by FT Press. This book was released on 2015-12-18 with total page 377 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Every company faces credit risk. Credit derivatives are among the most powerful tools available for managing it. Once restricted to the financial industry, they are now widely used by businesses of all kinds—and all financial professionals need to understand them. Credit Derivatives, Revised Edition, explains these tools simply, clearly, and rigorously: what they do, how they work, and how to use them in today’s applications. The authors first show how credit risk can be measured and valued. They explain key ideas, such as recovery rates and credit spreads, and show how derivatives transfer credit risk to external investors. Next, they systematically demonstrate how credit risk models can describe and predict credit risk events. They cover structural models, including Merton and Black and Cox; empirical models, such as the Z-score model; and reduced-form models, such as Jarrow-Turnbull. The authors also present detailed explanations of two widely used instruments: credit default swaps (CDSs) and collateralized debt obligations (CDOs). Finally, building on what you’ve learned, the authors offer a brand-new primer on today’s applications for financial instruments with embedded credit risk. FINANCIAL STATEMENT ANALYSIS Perform preliminary financial analysis on any potential project UNDERSTAND, MEASURE, AND ASSESS CREDIT RISK Master core concepts, from credit spreads to default probabilities MASTER POWERFUL CREDIT RISK MODELING APPROACHES Learn structural, empirical, and reduced-form credit risk modeling GAIN DEEP INSIGHT INTO TODAY’S INSTRUMENTS AND APPLICATIONS Understand CDSs, CDOs, and how credit-sensitive products are now used FOR EVERY FINANCIAL PRACTITIONER: BUY-SIDE AND SELL-SIDE For CFOs, treasurers, and other practitioners—everywhere from pension funds to commercial corporations
Download or read book Rating Based Modeling of Credit Risk written by Stefan Trueck and published by Academic Press. This book was released on 2009-01-15 with total page 279 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In the last decade rating-based models have become very popular in credit risk management. These systems use the rating of a company as the decisive variable to evaluate the default risk of a bond or loan. The popularity is due to the straightforwardness of the approach, and to the upcoming new capital accord (Basel II), which allows banks to base their capital requirements on internal as well as external rating systems. Because of this, sophisticated credit risk models are being developed or demanded by banks to assess the risk of their credit portfolio better by recognizing the different underlying sources of risk. As a consequence, not only default probabilities for certain rating categories but also the probabilities of moving from one rating state to another are important issues in such models for risk management and pricing. It is widely accepted that rating migrations and default probabilities show significant variations through time due to macroeconomics conditions or the business cycle. These changes in migration behavior may have a substantial impact on the value-at-risk (VAR) of a credit portfolio or the prices of credit derivatives such as collateralized debt obligations (D+CDOs). In Rating Based Modeling of Credit Risk the authors develop a much more sophisticated analysis of migration behavior. Their contribution of more sophisticated techniques to measure and forecast changes in migration behavior as well as determining adequate estimators for transition matrices is a major contribution to rating based credit modeling. Internal ratings-based systems are widely used in banks to calculate their value-at-risk (VAR) in order to determine their capital requirements for loan and bond portfolios under Basel II One aspect of these ratings systems is credit migrations, addressed in a systematic and comprehensive way for the first time in this book The book is based on in-depth work by Trueck and Rachev
Download or read book Credit Risk Pricing Models written by Bernd Schmid and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-11-07 with total page 388 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Credit Risk Pricing Models - now in its second edition - gives a deep insight into the latest basic and advanced credit risk modelling techniques covering not only the standard structural, reduced form and hybrid approaches but also showing how these methods can be applied to practice. The text covers a broad range of financial instruments, including all kinds of defaultable fixed and floating rate debt, credit derivatives and collateralised debt obligations.This volume will be a valuable source for the financial community involved in pricing credit linked financial instruments. In addition, the book can be used by students and academics for a comprehensive overview of the most important credit risk modelling issues.
Download or read book Using Structural Models for Default Prediction written by Gunnar Grass and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 62 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: I propose a new procedure for extracting probabilities of default from structural credit risk models based on virtual credit spreads (VCS) and implement this approach assuming a simple Merton (1974) model of capital structure. VCS are derived from the increase in the payout to debtholders necessary to offset the impact of an increase in asset variance on the option value of debt and equity. In contrast to real-world credit spreads, VCS do not contain risk premia for default timing and recovery uncertainty, thus yielding a purer estimate of physical default probabilities. Relative to the Merton distance to default (DD) measure, my measure (i) predicts higher credit risk for safe firms and lower credit risk for firms with high volatility and leverage (ii) requires fewer parameter assumptions (iii) clearly outperforms the DD measure when used to predict corporate default.
Download or read book Managing Credit Risk written by John B. Caouette and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 1998-11-03 with total page 476 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The first full analysis of the latest advances in managing credit risk. "Against a backdrop of radical industry evolution, the authors of Managing Credit Risk: The Next Great Financial Challenge provide a concise and practical overview of these dramatic market and technical developments in a book which is destined to become a standard reference in the field." -Thomas C. Wilson, Partner, McKinsey & Company, Inc. "Managing Credit Risk is an outstanding intellectual achievement. The authors have provided investors a comprehensive view of the state of credit analysis at the end of the millennium." -Martin S. Fridson, Financial Analysts Journal. "This book provides a comprehensive review of credit risk management that should be compulsory reading for not only those who are responsible for such risk but also for financial analysts and investors. An important addition to a significant but neglected subject." -B.J. Ranson, Senior Vice-President, Portfolio Management, Bank of Montreal. The phenomenal growth of the credit markets has spawned a powerful array of new instruments for managing credit risk, but until now there has been no single source of information and commentary on them. In Managing Credit Risk, three highly regarded professionals in the field have-for the first time-gathered state-of-the-art information on the tools, techniques, and vehicles available today for managing credit risk. Throughout the book they emphasize the actual practice of managing credit risk, and draw on the experience of leading experts who have successfully implemented credit risk solutions. Starting with a lucid analysis of recent sweeping changes in the U.S. and global financial markets, this comprehensive resource documents the credit explosion and its remarkable opportunities-as well as its potentially devastating dangers. Analyzing the problems that have occurred during its growth period-S&L failures, business failures, bond and loan defaults, derivatives debacles-and the solutions that have enabled the credit market to continue expanding, Managing Credit Risk examines the major players and institutional settings for credit risk, including banks, insurance companies, pension funds, exchanges, clearinghouses, and rating agencies. By carefully delineating the different perspectives of each of these groups with respect to credit risk, this unique resource offers a comprehensive guide to the rapidly changing marketplace for credit products. Managing Credit Risk describes all the major credit risk management tools with regard to their strengths and weaknesses, their fitness to specific financial situations, and their effectiveness. The instruments covered in each of these detailed sections include: credit risk models based on accounting data and market values; models based on stock price; consumer finance models; models for small business; models for real estate, emerging market corporations, and financial institutions; country risk models; and more. There is an important analysis of default results on corporate bonds and loans, and credit rating migration. In all cases, the authors emphasize that success will go to those firms that employ the right tools and create the right kind of risk culture within their organizations. A strong concluding chapter integrates emerging trends in the financial markets with the new methods in the context of the overall credit environment. Concise, authoritative, and lucidly written, Managing Credit Risk is essential reading for bankers, regulators, and financial market professionals who face the great new challenges-and promising rewards-of credit risk management.
Download or read book Advances in Credit Risk Modeling and Management written by Frédéric Vrins and published by MDPI. This book was released on 2020-07-01 with total page 190 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Credit risk remains one of the major risks faced by most financial and credit institutions. It is deeply connected to the real economy due to the systemic nature of some banks, but also because well-managed lending facilities are key for wealth creation and technological innovation. This book is a collection of innovative papers in the field of credit risk management. Besides the probability of default (PD), the major driver of credit risk is the loss given default (LGD). In spite of its central importance, LGD modeling remains largely unexplored in the academic literature. This book proposes three contributions in the field. Ye & Bellotti exploit a large private dataset featuring non-performing loans to design a beta mixture model. Their model can be used to improve recovery rate forecasts and, therefore, to enhance capital requirement mechanisms. François uses instead the price of defaultable instruments to infer the determinants of market-implied recovery rates and finds that macroeconomic and long-term issuer specific factors are the main determinants of market-implied LGDs. Cheng & Cirillo address the problem of modeling the dependency between PD and LGD using an original, urn-based statistical model. Fadina & Schmidt propose an improvement of intensity-based default models by accounting for ambiguity around both the intensity process and the recovery rate. Another topic deserving more attention is trade credit, which consists of the supplier providing credit facilities to his customers. Whereas this is likely to stimulate exchanges in general, it also magnifies credit risk. This is a difficult problem that remains largely unexplored. Kanapickiene & Spicas propose a simple but yet practical model to assess trade credit risk associated with SMEs and microenterprises operating in Lithuania. Another topical area in credit risk is counterparty risk and all other adjustments (such as liquidity and capital adjustments), known as XVA. Chataignier & Crépey propose a genetic algorithm to compress CVA and to obtain affordable incremental figures. Anagnostou & Kandhai introduce a hidden Markov model to simulate exchange rate scenarios for counterparty risk. Eventually, Boursicot et al. analyzes CoCo bonds, and find that they reduce the total cost of debt, which is positive for shareholders. In a nutshell, all the featured papers contribute to shedding light on various aspects of credit risk management that have, so far, largely remained unexplored.
