Download or read book Arms for Uncertainty written by Stephen J. Cimbala and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2016-04-08 with total page 244 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Nuclear weapons are here to stay. They have survived into the twenty-first century as instruments of influence for the US, Russia, and other major military powers. But, unlike the Cold War era, future nuclear forces will be developed and deployed within a digital-driven world of enhanced conventional weapons. As such, established nuclear powers will have smaller numbers of nuclear weapons for the purpose of deterrence working in parallel with smarter conventional weapons and elite military personnel. The challenge is to agree proportional reductions in nuclear inventories or abstinence requiring an effective nonproliferation regime to contain aspiring or threshold nuclear weapons states. This is the most comprehensive view of nuclear weapons policy and strategy currently available. The author’s division of the nuclear issue into the three ages is a never seen before analytical construct. With President Obama reelected, the reduction and even elimination of nuclear weapons will now rise to the top of the agenda once more. Moreover, given the likelihood of reductions in US defense spending, the subject of the triad, which is covered in Chapter One, will no doubt be an important subject of debate, as will the issue of missile defense, covered in Chapter 10. This book provides an excellent analysis of the spread of nuclear weapons in Asia and the Middle East and the potential dangers of a North Korean or Iranian breakout, subjects that dominate current policy debates.
Download or read book Mobilizing in Uncertainty written by Anastasia Shesterinina and published by Cornell University Press. This book was released on 2021-03-15 with total page 166 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: How do ordinary people navigate the intense uncertainty of the onset of war? Different individuals mobilize in different ways—some flee, some pick up arms, and some support armed actors as civil war begins. Drawing on nearly two hundred in-depth interviews with participants and nonparticipants in the Georgian-Abkhaz war of 1992–1993, Anastasia Shesterinina explores Abkhaz mobilization decisions during that conflict. Her fresh approach underscores the uncertain nature of the first days of the war when Georgian forces had a preponderance of manpower and arms. Mobilizing in Uncertainty demonstrates, in contrast to explanations that assume individuals know the risk involved in mobilization and make decisions based on that knowledge, that the Abkhaz anticipated risk in ways that were affected by their earlier experiences and by social networks at the time of mobilization. What Shesterinina uncovers is that to make sense of the violence, Abkhaz leaders, local authority figures, and others relied on shared understandings of the conflict and their roles in it—collective conflict identities—that they had developed before the war. As appeals traveled across society, people consolidated mobilization decisions within small groups of family and friends and based their actions on whom they understood to be threatened. Their decisions shaped how the Georgian-Abkhaz conflict unfolded and how people continued to mobilize during and after the war. Through this detailed analysis of Abkhaz mobilization from prewar to postwar, Mobilizing in Uncertainty sheds light on broader processes of violence, which have lasting effects on societies marked by intergroup conflict.
Download or read book The Principles of Uncertainty written by Maira Kalman and published by Penguin. This book was released on 2009-10-27 with total page 337 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: “Sublime . . . Kalman’s elegantly witty and at times melancholy narrative runs arm in arm with her unmistakable paintings on a serendipitous romp through the history of the world.” —Vanity Fair “Wildly original . . . there’s nothing else even remotely like it . . . This hilarious, wise, and deeply moving volume [is] the ultimate picture book for grown-ups.” —O Magazine Maira Kalman paints her highly personal worldview in this inimitable combination of image and text An irresistible invitation to experience life through a beloved artist's psyche, The Principles of Uncertainty is a compilation of Maira Kalman's New York Times columns. Part personal narrative, part documentary, part travelogue, part chapbook, and all Kalman, these brilliant, whimsical paintings, ideas, and images - which initially appear random - ultimately form an intricately interconnected worldview, an idiosyncratic inner monologue.
Download or read book U S Security in an Uncertain Era written by Brad Roberts and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 1993 with total page 438 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: essays collected from issues of the Washington Quarterly focus on important questions posed by the end of the Cold War, a changed Soviet Union, changing alliances, regional instabilities, and new security challenges These essays collected from recent issues of the Washington Quarterly focus on important questions posed by the end of the Cold War, a changed Soviet Union, changing alliances, regional instabilities, and new security challenges. The twenty-eight chapters are divided into sections that cover U.S. security in the 1990s, peacetime defense policy, security in Europe, international security, and proliferation and arms control. Brad Roberts is a Research Fellow in International Security Studies at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, D.C.
Download or read book The Politics of Uncertainty written by Peter Marris and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2003-09-02 with total page 208 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In The Politics of Uncertainty Peter Marris examines one of the most crucial and least studied aspects of social relationships: how we manage uncertainty, from the child's struggle for secure attachment to the competitive strategies of multinational corporations. Using a powerful synthesis of social and psychological theory, he shows how strategies of competition interact with the individual's sense of personal agency to place the heaviest burden of uncertainty on those with the fewest social and economic resources. He argues that these strategies maximize uncertainty for everyone by undermining the reciprocity essential to successful economic and social relationships. At a time when global economic reorganisation is undermining security of employment, The Politics of Uncertainty makes a convincing case for strategies of co-operation at both personal and political levels to ensure our economic and social survival in the twenty-first century.
Download or read book Risk and Uncertainty written by Olivier Urbain and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2017-07-05 with total page 204 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Conflict transformation requires, at minimum, a capacity to listen and respond constructively to those who are being hurt intentionally or unintentionally by others. This compendium attempts to understand the ways in which borders and boundaries are manifestations of less visible dynamics in individual or collective human consciousness.Nur Yalman asks how certain theories, such as the Huntington thesis, become deadly in their consequences. Omar Moufakkir and Ian Kelly analyze Dutch Moroccan relations. Sverre Lodgaard outlines the interrelationship between geo-politics, emerging concepts of world order, and nuclear weapon policies. Anthony Marsella critically analyses the Fukushima nuclear disaster.The lessons drawn in this volume underline the importance of communication, honesty, and a concerned government responsive to the needs of citizens in crisis. Each of these contributions is grappling with different ways in which words, theories, ideologies, and perspectives can hurt or heal, divide or unite, reconcile or destroy.
Download or read book Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence written by David Heckerman and published by Morgan Kaufmann. This book was released on 2014-05-12 with total page 554 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence contains the proceedings of the Ninth Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence held at the Catholic University of America in Washington, DC, on July 9-11, 1993. The papers focus on methods of reasoning and decision making under uncertainty as applied to problems in artificial intelligence (AI) and cover topics ranging from knowledge acquisition and automated model construction to learning, planning, temporal reasoning, and machine vision. Comprised of 66 chapters, this book begins with a discussion on causality in Bayesian belief networks before turning to a decision theoretic account of conditional ought statements that rectifies glaring deficiencies in classical deontic logic and forms a sound basis for qualitative decision theory. Subsequent chapters explore trade-offs in constructing and evaluating temporal influence diagrams; normative engineering risk management systems; additive belief-network models; and sensitivity analysis for probability assessments in Bayesian networks. Automated model construction and learning as well as algorithms for inference and decision making are also considered. This monograph will be of interest to both students and practitioners in the fields of AI and computer science.
Download or read book Uncertainty in Global Politics written by Anastasia Shesterinina and published by Taylor & Francis. This book was released on 2023-11-16 with total page 305 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book engages in a constructive, practical debate on the nature and effects of uncertainty in global politics. International contributors explore the processes associated with different forms of uncertainty in the context of environmental issues, diplomacy and international negotiations, and conflict and security. From the collapse of the Soviet Union to the 1997 and 2008 financial crises to the Arab Uprisings and the European migrant crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic, assessments of many events with lasting consequences on the global order have begun with: “why didn’t we see this coming?” There is much to learn from how phenomena that affect the global order generate uncertainty and what effects such uncertainty has on actors and issues. Presenting perspectives from all corners of the discipline and emerging and established scholars the book provides an up-to-date overview of the state of the literature; a concise yet conceptually rich theoretical framework; a mix of regional and global contemporary issues; process-oriented empirical evidence and methodological tools to assess different forms of uncertainty and propose practical solutions to addressing uncertainty in diverse contexts. The book will be of interest to scholars of global politics, international security, global environmental politics, international organizations and institutions, social movements, and conflict studies.
Download or read book In Uncertain Times written by Melvyn P. Leffler and published by Cornell University Press. This book was released on 2011-05-15 with total page 256 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In Uncertain Times considers how policymakers react to dramatic developments on the world stage. Few expected the Berlin Wall to come down in November 1989; no one anticipated the devastating attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon in September 2001. American foreign policy had to adjust quickly to an international arena that was completely transformed. Melvyn P. Leffler and Jeffrey W. Legro have assembled an illustrious roster of officials from the George H. W. Bush, Clinton, and George W. Bush administrations—Robert B. Zoellick, Paul Wolfowitz, Eric S. Edelman, Walter B. Slocombe, and Philip Zelikow. These policymakers describe how they went about making strategy for a world fraught with possibility and peril. They offer provocative reinterpretations of the economic strategy advanced by the George H. W. Bush administration, the bureaucratic clashes over policy toward the breakup of the USSR, the creation of the Defense Policy Guidance of 1992, the expansion of NATO, the writing of the National Security Strategy Statement of 2002, and the invasion of Iraq in 2003. A group of eminent scholars address these same topics. Bruce Cumings, John Mueller, Mary Elise Sarotte, Odd Arne Westad, and William C. Wohlforth probe the unstated assumptions, the cultural values, and the psychological makeup of the policymakers. They examine whether opportunities were seized and whether threats were magnified and distorted. They assess whether academicians and independent experts would have done a better job than the policymakers did. Together, policymakers and scholars impel us to rethink how our world has changed and how policy can be improved in the future.
Download or read book National Bureau of Standards Handbook written by Sherman F. Booth and published by . This book was released on 1961 with total page 974 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Surfing Uncertainty written by Andy Clark and published by Oxford University Press, USA. This book was released on 2016 with total page 425 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This title brings together work on embodiment, action, and the predictive mind. At the core is the vision of human minds as prediction machines - devices that constantly try to stay one step ahead of the breaking waves of sensory stimulation, by actively predicting the incoming flow. In every situation we encounter, that complex prediction machinery is already buzzing, proactively trying to anticipate the sensory barrage. The book shows in detail how this strange but potent strategy of self-anticipation ushers perception, understanding, and imagination simultaneously onto the cognitive stage.
Download or read book Russia s Uncertain Economic Future written by John P. Hardt and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2015-04-15 with total page 504 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The contributors to this volume analyze the present state of the Russian economy and its future prospects - which now seem brighter than at any previous time in the country's history. The Russian economy is now showing positive GDP growth and a positive balance of payments, portending a trend of sustained growth. The record of the Putin presidency with respect to the establishment of market-friendly legal and administrative environments is substantially positive. On the other side of the ledger, the contributors identify the persistence of monopolies in energy, transportation, and agriculture; distortions resulting from corruption, infrastructural inadequacies, and the maldistribution of political power and decision-making authority; demographic decline and the erosion of human capital as manifested in the health, education, and welfare of the population. Russia's successful development as a democratic society with a market economy is of great importance to its neighbors and to the global economy, and specifically to the United States, which is why the U.S. Congress commissioned these studies by expert analysts. This edition includes a comprehensive subject index, making the volume user-friendly.
Download or read book Conflict And Arms Control written by Paul Viotti and published by Westview Press. This book was released on 1986 with total page 344 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book The Uncertain Friendship written by Herbert Druks and published by Bloomsbury Publishing USA. This book was released on 2000-11-30 with total page 270 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Although the United States has been a friend to Israel from the beginning and Israel has in return been an important American ally in the region, relations between the two nations have never been without difficulties. This study traces U.S.-Israeli relations from the 1930s to the early 1960s and examines the roles played by both Israelis and Americans in the formation of an independent Israel. Taking into account economic, political, social, and military factors, Druks devotes particular attention to elements of Israel's dependence on and independence from the United States during crucial phases of relations. These include the Holocaust and the failure to rescue European Jewry; Roosevelt and the promise of independence; establishment and recognition; Washington's ongoing relations with the new nation; the 1956 Sinai War; and President John F. Kennedy's enlightened approach towards Israel and the Middle East. On the U.S. side, Druks analyzes the defining roles played by the various presidents involved, the efforts of Congress, the influence of the media, and the contributions of Americans in general. Discussion of the Israeli side of the equation includes the impact of Israeli leaders, society, and the parliamentary democratic process. The work is based on materials from public and private archives in the U.S. and Israel, published governmental documents, as well as personal diaries. In addition, the author includes interviews with such key figures as Harry S Truman, W. Averell Harriman, Roger P. Davies, Yitzhak Rabin, Benjamin Netanyahu, Yitzhak Shamir Moti Gur, Moshe Arens, and Ezer Weizman.
Download or read book An Uncertain Trumpet written by Kenneth Finlayson and published by Bloomsbury Publishing USA. This book was released on 2001-07-30 with total page 206 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Faced with severe budgetary constraints, a radically reduced force structure, and a crippling intellectual dogmatism, the American Infantry struggled throughout the interwar years to modernize its doctrine. Finlayson examines these difficulties, beginning with an overview of the experiences of the primary combatants of the First World War, comparing their battlefield doctrines with that of the American Expeditionary Force. The brief American appearance on the battlefield did much to shape the convictions of those men assigned the task of developing doctrine after the war. The findings of the post-World War I Superior Board provide valuable insight into how institutional conservatism and the dogmatic approach to new ideas that existed among senior Army leaders stymied possible doctrinal advances. The Army would suffer greatly in the post-war demobilization and the subsequent ravages of the Great Depression. With little money and few soldiers spread around far-flung posts, little advancement in terms of doctrinal development was possible. As the likelihood of war became more imminent in the 1930s, a concerted effort to modernize was made; however, the magnitude of the task made success virtually impossible-a situation that was evident in the Infantry's poor performance in the early battles of the war. The U.S. entry into World war II would, unfortunately, find the infantry branch only partially prepared for the battle field of 1942.
Download or read book Uncertain Justice written by Laurence Tribe and published by Macmillan. This book was released on 2014-06-03 with total page 416 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An assessment of how the Supreme Court under Chief Justice John Roberts is significantly influencing the nation's laws and reinterpreting the Constitution includes in-depth analysis of recent rulings and their implications.
Download or read book Russia s Uncertain Economic Future written by John Pearce Hardt and published by M.E. Sharpe. This book was released on 2003 with total page 508 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Russian economy is now showing positive GDP growth and a positive balance of payments, portending a trend of sustained growth. The contributors to this volume analyze the present state of the Russian economy and its future prospects which now seem brighter than ever.
