Download or read book Econometric Analysis of Financial and Economic Time Series written by Thomas B. Fomby and published by Emerald Group Publishing. This book was released on 2006-03-01 with total page 407 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Talks about the time varying betas of the capital asset pricing model, analysis of predictive densities of nonlinear models of stock returns, modelling multivariate dynamic correlations, flexible seasonal time series models, estimation of long-memory time series models, application of the technique of boosting in volatility forecasting, and more.

Download or read book The Oxford Handbook of Economic Forecasting written by Michael P. Clements and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2011-06-29 with total page 732 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This Handbook provides up-to-date coverage of both new and well-established fields in the sphere of economic forecasting. The chapters are written by world experts in their respective fields, and provide authoritative yet accessible accounts of the key concepts, subject matter, and techniques in a number of diverse but related areas. It covers the ways in which the availability of ever more plentiful data and computational power have been used in forecasting, in terms of the frequency of observations, the number of variables, and the use of multiple data vintages. Greater data availability has been coupled with developments in statistical theory and economic analysis to allow more elaborate and complicated models to be entertained; the volume provides explanations and critiques of these developments. These include factor models, DSGE models, restricted vector autoregressions, and non-linear models, as well as models for handling data observed at mixed frequencies, high-frequency data, multiple data vintages, methods for forecasting when there are structural breaks, and how breaks might be forecast. Also covered are areas which are less commonly associated with economic forecasting, such as climate change, health economics, long-horizon growth forecasting, and political elections. Econometric forecasting has important contributions to make in these areas along with how their developments inform the mainstream.

Download or read book Advances in Info Metrics written by Min Chen and published by Oxford University Press, USA. This book was released on 2020 with total page 557 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "Info-metrics is a framework for rational inference on the basis of limited, or insufficient, information. It is the science of modeling, reasoning, and drawing inferences under conditions of noisy and insufficient information. Info-metrics has its roots in information theory (Shannon, 1948), Bernoulli's and Laplace's principle of insufficient reason (Bernoulli, 1713) and its offspring the principle of maximum entropy (Jaynes, 1957). It is an interdisciplinary framework situated at the intersection of information theory, statistical inference, and decision-making under uncertainty. Within a constrained optimization setup, info-metrics provides a simple way for modeling and understanding all types of systems and problems. It is a framework for processing the available information with minimal reliance on assumptions and information that cannot be validated. Quite often a model cannot be validated with finite data. Examples include biological, social and behavioral models, as well as models of cognition and knowledge. The info-metrics framework extends naturally for tackling these types of common problems"--

Download or read book Extensions of the ARCH Model with Applications to U S Inflation written by Dennis Fay Kraft and published by . This book was released on 1982 with total page 286 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book ARCH Models for Financial Applications written by Evdokia Xekalaki and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2010-03-18 with total page 558 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedastic (ARCH) processes are used in finance to model asset price volatility over time. This book introduces both the theory and applications of ARCH models and provides the basic theoretical and empirical background, before proceeding to more advanced issues and applications. The Authors provide coverage of the recent developments in ARCH modelling which can be implemented using econometric software, model construction, fitting and forecasting and model evaluation and selection. Key Features: Presents a comprehensive overview of both the theory and the practical applications of ARCH, an increasingly popular financial modelling technique. Assumes no prior knowledge of ARCH models; the basics such as model construction are introduced, before proceeding to more complex applications such as value-at-risk, option pricing and model evaluation. Uses empirical examples to demonstrate how the recent developments in ARCH can be implemented. Provides step-by-step instructive examples, using econometric software, such as Econometric Views and the G@RCH module for the Ox software package, used in Estimating and Forecasting ARCH Models. Accompanied by a CD-ROM containing links to the software as well as the datasets used in the examples. Aimed at readers wishing to gain an aptitude in the applications of financial econometric modelling with a focus on practical implementation, via applications to real data and via examples worked with econometrics packages.

Download or read book Palgrave Handbook of Econometrics written by Terence C. Mills and published by Springer. This book was released on 2009-06-25 with total page 1406 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Following theseminal Palgrave Handbook of Econometrics: Volume I , this second volume brings together the finestacademicsworking in econometrics today andexploresapplied econometrics, containing contributions onsubjects includinggrowth/development econometrics and applied econometrics and computing.

Download or read book Introduction to Time Series Forecasting With Python written by Jason Brownlee and published by Machine Learning Mastery. This book was released on 2017-02-16 with total page 359 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Time series forecasting is different from other machine learning problems. The key difference is the fixed sequence of observations and the constraints and additional structure this provides. In this Ebook, finally cut through the math and specialized methods for time series forecasting. Using clear explanations, standard Python libraries and step-by-step tutorials you will discover how to load and prepare data, evaluate model skill, and implement forecasting models for time series data.

Download or read book Forecasting in the Presence of Structural Breaks and Model Uncertainty written by David E. Rapach and published by Emerald Group Publishing. This book was released on 2008-02-29 with total page 691 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Forecasting in the presence of structural breaks and model uncertainty are active areas of research with implications for practical problems in forecasting. This book addresses forecasting variables from both Macroeconomics and Finance, and considers various methods of dealing with model instability and model uncertainty when forming forecasts.

Download or read book Time Series Forecasting written by Chris Chatfield and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2000-10-25 with total page 281 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: From the author of the bestselling "Analysis of Time Series," Time-Series Forecasting offers a comprehensive, up-to-date review of forecasting methods. It provides a summary of time-series modelling procedures, followed by a brief catalogue of many different time-series forecasting methods, ranging from ad-hoc methods through ARIMA and state-space

Download or read book Actuarial Study written by and published by . This book was released on 1937 with total page 570 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Introduction to Time Series and Forecasting written by Peter J. Brockwell and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-03-14 with total page 429 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Some of the key mathematical results are stated without proof in order to make the underlying theory acccessible to a wider audience. The book assumes a knowledge only of basic calculus, matrix algebra, and elementary statistics. The emphasis is on methods and the analysis of data sets. The logic and tools of model-building for stationary and non-stationary time series are developed in detail and numerous exercises, many of which make use of the included computer package, provide the reader with ample opportunity to develop skills in this area. The core of the book covers stationary processes, ARMA and ARIMA processes, multivariate time series and state-space models, with an optional chapter on spectral analysis. Additional topics include harmonic regression, the Burg and Hannan-Rissanen algorithms, unit roots, regression with ARMA errors, structural models, the EM algorithm, generalized state-space models with applications to time series of count data, exponential smoothing, the Holt-Winters and ARAR forecasting algorithms, transfer function models and intervention analysis. Brief introducitons are also given to cointegration and to non-linear, continuous-time and long-memory models. The time series package included in the back of the book is a slightly modified version of the package ITSM, published separately as ITSM for Windows, by Springer-Verlag, 1994. It does not handle such large data sets as ITSM for Windows, but like the latter, runs on IBM-PC compatible computers under either DOS or Windows (version 3.1 or later). The programs are all menu-driven so that the reader can immediately apply the techniques in the book to time series data, with a minimal investment of time in the computational and algorithmic aspects of the analysis.

Download or read book Forecasting Economic Time Series written by Michael Clements and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 1998-10-08 with total page 402 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book provides a formal analysis of the models, procedures, and measures of economic forecasting with a view to improving forecasting practice. David Hendry and Michael Clements base the analyses on assumptions pertinent to the economies to be forecast, viz. a non-constant, evolving economic system, and econometric models whose form and structure are unknown a priori. The authors find that conclusions which can be established formally for constant-parameter stationary processes and correctly-specified models often do not hold when unrealistic assumptions are relaxed. Despite the difficulty of proceeding formally when models are mis-specified in unknown ways for non-stationary processes that are subject to structural breaks, Hendry and Clements show that significant insights can be gleaned. For example, a formal taxonomy of forecasting errors can be developed, the role of causal information clarified, intercept corrections re-established as a method for achieving robustness against forms of structural change, and measures of forecast accuracy re-interpreted.

Download or read book Actuarial Study written by United States. Social Security Administration. Office of the Actuary and published by . This book was released on 1937 with total page 874 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Dissertation Abstracts International written by and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 618 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book The Nobel Memorial Laureates in Economics written by Howard R. Vane and published by Edward Elgar Publishing. This book was released on 2005 with total page 374 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: . . . this book will continue to share shelf-space next to my current textbooks. As a librarian, such utility makes this a desirable addition to any educator s collection. As a history of economic thought book, Vane and Mulhearn have brought together a breadth of information that can be found through disparate sources but at a cost of effort and, especially for students, qualitative decisions regarding sources. . . The convenience of their starting methodology, breadth over depth coverage, and clear intention of writing to an audience of students makes this a useful text. Kirk Douglas Johnson, Journal of the History of Economic Thought The essays summarizing the main achievements of the prize winners are well written and to the point. They are short enough that they never cause the reader to lose interest, but substantive enough to let you know what the winners accomplishments amount to. These compact, factually accurate essays mark the real value of the book as a reference work. . . there is little for which to fault the authors. Vane and Mulhearn have done a very nice job with the book, and it is an added bonus that it includes a formal portrait photograph of each prize winner. Bradley W. Bateman, History Political Economy . . . Vane and Mulhearn have produced a useful reference work. John Quiggin, Economic Analysis and Policy This collection has the capacity to surprise the reader. You learn all sorts of new and sometimes admirable things about these economists and about the richness of the profession that is often obscured from students of the subject. John Lodewijks, History of Economics Review This volume provides a non-technical description of the main published works of every Nobel Memorial (Economics) winner from the first annual award in 1969 to 2004 . . . This is a reference book par excellence . . . it will interest not only those having some involvement with economics, past or present, but it should also attract more general readers wanting to unravel some of the mysteries surrounding economics and economists. Economic Outlook and Business Review Vane and Mulhearn have produced an introduction to the careers and major publications of the 55 economists awarded the Bank of Sweden Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel between 1969 and 2004. The short essays on each economist are readable and accurate; they provide a discussion of the subjects, major contributions and an introduction to the secondary literature, often with the outstanding reports on the laureates work provided to the Economic Prize Committee of the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences. The collection is introduced with a review of the prize and the common characteristics of the winners thus far, all neatly summarized in a table with each laureate s year and country of birth, university, year of first and higher degrees, affiliation at the time of the award, field of study, and a summary citation. This volume provides a very useful introduction to the development of economic ideas in the last three-quarters of the 20th century. Highly recommended. D.E. Moggridge, Choice Every serious research economist will want to have a look at this comprehensive work. Edwin Burmeister, Research Professor of Economics, Duke University, US The award of the Nobel Prize has, for more than thirty years, been economists way of informing the public at large about what work most of them think is important, and about who has done it. Anyone seeking to understand the development of recent economic ideas and the profession that has created them must deal with the Prize s history, and Vane and Mulhearn have provided an indispensable guide to it brief, readable and accurate. David Laidler, Professor Emeritus and Bank of Montreal Professor, University of Western Ontario, Canada This is a splendid account of the personal stories of the Nobel Laureates in Economics, the diversity of practice of recent economists, and, perhaps above all, the nature o

Download or read book Evaluating Econometric Forecasts of Economic and Financial Variables written by M. Clements and published by Springer. This book was released on 2005-01-21 with total page 187 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Financial econometrics is one of the greatest on-going success stories of recent decades, as it has become one of the most active areas of research in econometrics. In this book, Michael Clements presents a clear and logical explanation of the key concepts and ideas of forecasts of economic and financial variables. He shows that forecasts of the single most likely outcome of an economic and financial variable are of limited value. Forecasts that provide more information on the expected likely ranges of outcomes are more relevant. This book provides a comprehensive treatment of the evaluation of different types of forecasts and draws out the parallels between the different approaches. It describes the methods of evaluating these more complex forecasts which provide a fuller description of the range of possible future outcomes.

Download or read book Uncertainty Modeling In Knowledge Engineering And Decision Making Proceedings Of The 10th International Flins Conference written by Cengiz Kahraman and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2012-08-10 with total page 1373 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: FLINS, originally an acronym for Fuzzy Logic and Intelligent Technologies in Nuclear Science, is now extended to Computational Intelligence for applied research. The contributions to the 10th of FLINS conference cover state-of-the-art research, development, and technology for computational intelligence systems, both from the foundations and the applications points-of-view.