Download or read book Analysis of Tropical Intraseasonal Variability in the UK Met Office Unified Model written by P. M. Inness and published by . This book was released on 1994 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Tropical Intraseasonal Variability in 14 IPCC AR4 Climate Models Part I written by and published by . This book was released on 2005 with total page 68 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This study evaluates the tropical intraseasonal variability, especially the fidelity of Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) simulations, in 14 coupled general circulation models (GCMs) participating in the Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). Eight years of daily precipitation from each model's 20th century climate simulation are analyzed and compared with daily satellite retrieved precipitation. Space-time spectral analysis is used to obtain the variance and phase speed of dominant convectively coupled equatorial waves, including the MJO, Kelvin, equatorial Rossby (ER), mixed Rossby-gravity (MRG), and eastward inertio-gravity (EIG) and westward inertio-gravity (WIG) waves. The variance and propagation of the MJO, defined as the eastward wavenumbers 1-6, 30-70 day mode, are examined in detail. The results show that current state-of-the-art GCMs still have significant problems and display a wide range of skill in simulating the tropical intraseasonal variability. The total intraseasonal (2-128 day) variance of precipitation is too weak in most of the models. About half of the models have signals of convectively coupled equatorial waves, with Kelvin and MRG-EIG waves especially prominent. However, the variances are generally too weak for all wave modes except the EIG wave, and the phase speeds are generally too fast, being scaled to excessively deep equivalent depths. An interesting result is that this scaling is consistent within a given model across modes, in that both the symmetric and antisymmetric modes scale similarly to a certain equivalent depth. Excessively deep equivalent depths suggest that these models may not have a large enough reduction in their ''effective static stability'' due to diabatic heating. The MJO variance approaches the observed value in only two of the 14 models, but is less than half of the observed value in the other 12 models. The ratio between the eastward MJO variance and the variance of its westward counterpart is too small in most of the models, which is consistent with the lack of highly coherent eastward propagation of the MJO in many models. Moreover, the MJO variance in 13 of the 14 models does not come from a pronounced spectral peak, but usually is associated with an over-reddened spectrum, which in turn is associated with a too strong persistence of equatorial precipitation. The two models that arguably do best at simulating the MJO are the only ones having convective closures/triggers linked in some way to moisture convergence.

Download or read book Proceedings of the International Conference on Monsoon Variability and Prediction written by and published by . This book was released on 1994 with total page 446 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Tropical Intraseasonal Variability and the Stochastic Skeleton Method written by Andrew J. Majda and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2019-09-24 with total page 123 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this text, modern applied mathematics and physical insight are used to construct the simplest and first nonlinear dynamical model for the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO), i.e. the stochastic skeleton model. This model captures the fundamental features of the MJO and offers a theoretical prediction of its structure, leading to new detailed methods to identify it in observational data. The text contributes to understanding and predicting intraseasonal variability, which remains a challenging task in contemporary climate, atmospheric, and oceanic science. In the tropics, the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) is the dominant component of intraseasonal variability. One of the strengths of this text is demonstrating how a blend of modern applied mathematical tools, including linear and nonlinear partial differential equations (PDEs), simple stochastic modeling, and numerical algorithms, have been used in conjunction with physical insight to create the model. These tools are also applied in developing several extensions of the model in order to capture additional features of the MJO, including its refined vertical structure and its interactions with the extratropics. This book is of interest to graduate students, postdocs, and senior researchers in pure and applied mathematics, physics, engineering, and climate, atmospheric, and oceanic science interested in turbulent dynamical systems as well as other complex systems.

Download or read book Proceedings of the First International AMIP Scientific Conference Monterey California USA 15 19 May 1995 written by William Lawrence Gates and published by . This book was released on 1995 with total page 560 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Intraseasonal Variability in the Atmosphere Ocean Climate System written by William K.-M. Lau and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2007-06-10 with total page 477 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This is the first comprehensive review of intra-seasonal variability (ISV); the contents are balanced between observation, theory and modeling. Starting with an overview of ISV and historical observations, the book addresses the coupling between ocean and atmosphere, and the worldwide role of ISV in monsoon variability. Also considered are the connections between oscillations like the Madden, Julian and El Nino/Southern and short-term climate.

Download or read book Sub seasonal to Seasonal Prediction written by Andrew Robertson and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2018-10-19 with total page 585 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Gap Between Weather and Climate Forecasting: Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction is an ideal reference for researchers and practitioners across the range of disciplines involved in the science, modeling, forecasting and application of this new frontier in sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) prediction. It provides an accessible, yet rigorous, introduction to the scientific principles and sources of predictability through the unique challenges of numerical simulation and forecasting with state-of-science modeling codes and supercomputers. Additional coverage includes the prospects for developing applications to trigger early action decisions to lessen weather catastrophes, minimize costly damage, and optimize operator decisions. The book consists of a set of contributed chapters solicited from experts and leaders in the fields of S2S predictability science, numerical modeling, operational forecasting, and developing application sectors. The introduction and conclusion, written by the co-editors, provides historical perspective, unique synthesis and prospects, and emerging opportunities in this exciting, complex and interdisciplinary field. Contains contributed chapters from leaders and experts in sub-seasonal to seasonal science, forecasting and applications Provides a one-stop shop for graduate students, academic and applied researchers, and practitioners in an emerging and interdisciplinary field Offers a synthesis of the state of S2S science through the use of concrete examples, enabling potential users of S2S forecasts to quickly grasp the potential for application in their own decision-making Includes a broad set of topics, illustrated with graphic examples, that highlight interdisciplinary linkages

Download or read book Mathematical Strategies for Climate and Long Range Weather Forecasting in Hierarchy of Models written by Andrew Majda and published by Springer. This book was released on 2019-04-15 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book gives a research exposition of interdisciplinary topics at the cutting edge of the applied mathematics of climate change and long range weather forecasting through a hierarchy of models with contemporary applications to grand challenges such as intraseasonal weather prediction. The developments include recent physics constrained low-order models, new analog prediction models, and equation free methods to capture intermittency and low frequency variabilities in massive datasets through Nonlinear Laplacian Spectral Analysis (NLSA) which combines delayed embeddings, causal constraints, and machine learning. Applications to grand challenges such as tropical intraseasonal variability of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and the Monsoon as well as sea ice re-emergence in the Arctic on yearly time scales. A highlight is the exposition and pedagogical development of recent intermediate stochastic skeleton models to capture the main features of the MJO through PDE ideas, stochastics, and physical reasoning and compared with observational data. The mathematical theory of model error and the use of information theory combined with linear statistical response theory in a calibration stage are applied to improve long range forecasting and multi-scale data assimilation with concrete examples.

Download or read book Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences written by Daniel S. Wilks and published by Academic Press. This book was released on 2011-05-20 with total page 698 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This revised and expanded text explains the latest statistical methods that are being used to describe, analyze, test, and forecast atmospheric data. It features numerous worked examples, illustrations, equations, and exercises with separate solutions. The book will help advanced students and professionals understand and communicate what their data sets have to say, and make sense of the scientific literature in meteorology, climatology, and related disciplines.

Download or read book Representation of the Tropical Intraseasonal Variability and Its Impact on Seasonal Predictability in a Multi mode Ensemble written by and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 42 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Meteorological and Geoastrophysical Abstracts written by and published by . This book was released on 1997 with total page 494 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book The Global Monsoon System written by Chih-Pei Chang and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2011 with total page 609 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book presents a current review of the science of monsoon research and forecasting. The contents are based on the invited reviews presented at the World Meteorological Organization''s Fourth International Workshop on Monsoons in late 2008, with subsequent manuscripts revised from 2009 to early 2010. The book builds on the concept that the monsoons in various parts of the globe can be viewed as components of an integrated global monsoon system, while emphasizing that significant region-specific characteristics are present in individual monsoon regions. The topics covered include all major monsoon regions and time scales (mesoscale, synoptic, intraseasonal, interannual, decadal, and climate change). It is intended to provide an updated comprehensive review of the current status of knowledge, modeling capability, and future directions in the research of monsoon systems around the world.

Download or read book Analysis and Interpretation of Tropical Intraseasonal Variability written by John T. Fasullo and published by . This book was released on 1997 with total page 408 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Next Generation Earth System Prediction written by National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2016-08-22 with total page 351 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: As the nation's economic activities, security concerns, and stewardship of natural resources become increasingly complex and globally interrelated, they become ever more sensitive to adverse impacts from weather, climate, and other natural phenomena. For several decades, forecasts with lead times of a few days for weather and other environmental phenomena have yielded valuable information to improve decision-making across all sectors of society. Developing the capability to forecast environmental conditions and disruptive events several weeks and months in advance could dramatically increase the value and benefit of environmental predictions, saving lives, protecting property, increasing economic vitality, protecting the environment, and informing policy choices. Over the past decade, the ability to forecast weather and climate conditions on subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) timescales, i.e., two to fifty-two weeks in advance, has improved substantially. Although significant progress has been made, much work remains to make S2S predictions skillful enough, as well as optimally tailored and communicated, to enable widespread use. Next Generation Earth System Predictions presents a ten-year U.S. research agenda that increases the nation's S2S research and modeling capability, advances S2S forecasting, and aids in decision making at medium and extended lead times.

Download or read book Fundamentals of Tropical Climate Dynamics written by Tim Li and published by Springer. This book was released on 2018-05-12 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This textbook introduces fundamental dynamics of tropical atmosphere and ocean useful for advanced graduate courses in atmospheric and climate sciences. It presents an overview of simple atmospheric and oceanic models, as well as the observed phenomena associated with major climate modes in the tropics. It provides students with an up-to-date understanding of the dynamics of tropical climate and weather phenomena. A particular focus is given to scale interactions and atmosphere-ocean interactions associated with tropical mean climate (such as ITCZ asymmetry and annual cycles), synoptic-scale variability (such as synoptic wave trains, easterly waves and tropical cyclones), intraseasonal oscillations (such as Madden-Julian Oscillation and boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation), and interannual variability (such as El Niño-Southern Oscillation and Indian Ocean Dipole). Theoretical and conceptual models are presented for better understanding of physical mechanisms behind the observational phenomena. This book aims to motivate graduate students in atmospheric sciences and oceanography by providing them with the key methods and tools necessary to conduct research.

Download or read book The Role of Air Sea Exchange in Geochemical Cycling written by Patrick Buat-Ménard and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 555 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book arises from a NATO-sponsored Advanced Study Institute on 'The Role of Air-Sea Exchange in Geochemical Cycling' held at Bombann@§. near Bordeaux, France. from 16 to 27 September 1985. The chapters of the book are the written versions of the lectures given at the Institute. The aim of the book is to give a comprehensive up-to-date coverage of the subject. presented in a teaching mode. The chapters contain much recent research material and attempt to give the reader an understanding of how the role of air-sea exchange in geochemical cycling can be quantitatively assessed. In the last decade, major advances in the fields of marine and atmospheric chemistry have underlined the role of physical, chemical and biological processes at and near the air-sea interface in a number of geochemical cycles (C. S, N, metals etc ... ). Further, there is strong concern over the anthropogenic perturbation of these cycles on both regional and global scales. The first part of the book (Chapters 1 to 8) provides a review of topics fundamental to such studies. These topics include concepts in geochemical modelling, assessment of atmospheric transport from sources to the oceans. description of mixing and transport processes within the ocean for both dissolved and particulate materials, quantification of air-sea fluxes for both gases and particles, photochemical transformations in the atmospheric and oceanic boundary layers.

Download or read book Indian Summer Monsoon Variability written by Jasti S. Chowdary and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2021-08-15 with total page 496 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Indian Summer Monsoon Variability: El Niño-Teleconnections and Beyond presents the improved understanding of Indian Monsoon teleconnections (ENSO and Non-ENSO), new advances, and preferred future steps. Special emphasis is given to non-ENSO teleconnections which have been poorly understood for decades. With growing monsoon rainfall extremes across the Indian Subcontinent, a new understanding of monsoon environmental factors that are driven remotely through teleconnections is a trending topic. Finally, the book reviews current understanding ofthe observational and modeling aspects of Indian monsoon teleconnections. This is a must-read for researchers and graduate students in atmospheric science and meteorology. Presents teleconnections associated with the Indian summer monsoon from a global perspective Discusses new pathways that connect the remote drivers to Indian summer monsoon variability Covers a wide range of mechanisms, processes, and science questions in relation to monsoon variability from interannual, decadal to climate change time scales