Download or read book Analysis of a Long range Environmental Forecasting Model written by Everett Alvarez and published by . This book was released on 1976 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Analysis of a Long Range Environmental Forecasting Model written by Everett Alvarez (Jr) and published by . This book was released on 1976 with total page 101 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This thesis describes long-range forecasting models that were developed for the Middle East, Latin America, and Africa to cope with the problem of projecting important economic, political, military, and social variables over a five to twenty year range. On the basis of imperfect data that is available for these regions, this study examines the innovations introduced to handle the unstable situations found in developing areas of the world. Limited to the Middle East region, this effort undertakes a restructuring of the data base, introduces new scaling techniques for social and political concepts, and imposes a rigorous statistical analysis through different econometric techniques. Utilizing new estimated regression coefficients, a forecast simulation for several Middle East countries follows along with concluding analyses and a discussion of inherent problems present in the model. (Author).
Download or read book A General Handbook for Long range Environmental Forecasting written by Consolidated Analysis Centers and published by . This book was released on 1973 with total page 300 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Quantitative Methods for Long range Environmental Forecasting written by Robert Franco and published by . This book was released on 1983 with total page 22 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Quantitative Methods for Long Range Environmental Forecasting Long Range European Projections Volume I Summary Volume written by G. Robert Franco and published by . This book was released on 1974 with total page 77 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The overall purpose of this Interim Technical Report is to provide a basis for the improvement of long-range environmental forecasting through the use of quantitative methods. This voulme provides a summary of the technical work that is presented in the second volume of the Report. The document summarizes the methodology that was developed to forecast values of 5 central environmental descriptors for the European environment of the 1985-19995 period. The descriptors considered were: international conflict, international alignment, national power base, internal instability, and international trade. Forecasts of these descriptor variables are also provided. The document also describes Volume III (the Research Guide) of the Interim Technical Report. The Guide presents a step by step procedure that analysts can use to generate longrange environmental forecasts. (Author).
Download or read book Long Range Dependence and Sea Level Forecasting written by Ali Ercan and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-08-30 with total page 54 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This study shows that the Caspian Sea level time series possess long range dependence even after removing linear trends, based on analyses of the Hurst statistic, the sample autocorrelation functions, and the periodogram of the series. Forecasting performance of ARMA, ARIMA, ARFIMA and Trend Line-ARFIMA (TL-ARFIMA) combination models are investigated. The forecast confidence bands and the forecast updating methodology, provided for ARIMA models in the literature, are modified for the ARFIMA models. Sample autocorrelation functions are utilized to estimate the differencing lengths of the ARFIMA models. The confidence bands of the forecasts are estimated using the probability densities of the residuals without assuming a known distribution. There are no long-term sea level records for the region of Peninsular Malaysia and Malaysia’s Sabah-Sarawak northern region of Borneo Island. In such cases the Global Climate Model (GCM) projections for the 21st century can be downscaled to the Malaysia region by means of regression techniques, utilizing the short records of satellite altimeters in this region against the GCM projections during a mutual observation period. This book will be useful for engineers and researchers working in the areas of applied statistics, climate change, sea level change, time series analysis, applied earth sciences, and nonlinear dynamics.
Download or read book Projecting Environmental Trends from Economic Forecasts written by Peter B Meyer and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2017-11-22 with total page 155 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This title was first published in 2000: Sustainable development offers visions of the future, but implementation of new sustainable policies seems slow. This text presents a forecasting method directed to overcome some barriers to the implementation of more sustainable economic policy. Using a case study, the authors describe how economic and environmental forecasts can be developed that are relevant to the immediate concerns of policy-makers and are more likely to lead to policy changes. A combination of forecasting methods are shown to evaluate a range of current alternatives in the future. Similar techniques have been used in developing countries, but here the techniques are applied to an already industrialized economy.
Download or read book Energy and the Environment written by Vaclav Smil and published by . This book was released on 1974 with total page 210 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A poll of experts as to what may happen in energy and the environment in the future.
Download or read book Quantitative Methods for Long Range Environmental Forecasting Long Range European Projections Volume III Research Guide written by G. Robert Franco and published by . This book was released on 1974 with total page 53 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The overall purpose of this Interim Technical Report is to provide the basis for the improvement of long-range environmental forecasting through the use of quantitative methods. This volume provides a step by step procedure that analysts can use to generate forecasts of the long-range environment. The document is based on and should be used in conjuction with CACI's A General Handbook for Long-Range Environmental Forecasting, Interim Technical Report No. 2 (February 1973). (Author).
Download or read book Quantitative Methods for Long Range Environmental Forecasting Long Wave European Projections Volume II Technical Volume written by G. Robert Franco and published by . This book was released on 1974 with total page 535 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The overall purpose of this Interim Technical Report is to provide a basis for the improvements of long-range environmental forecasting through the use of quantitative methods. This volume provides the technical discussion of the model that was developed to forecast values of five central environmental descriptors for the European environment of the 1985-1995 period. The descriptor variables considered were international conflict, international alignment, national power base, internal instability, and international trade. The structure of the model consists of 12 equations which specify the various components of the descriptor variables. The coefficients of the model which is block-recursive are estimated using the least squares method. Forecasts of the five central environmental descriptors are provided by simulation of the model. (Author).
Download or read book Quantitative Methods for Long Range Environmental Forecasting The Implementation Phase written by Herman M. Weil and published by . This book was released on 1975 with total page 14 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The report describes methodologies for generating quantitative long-range forecasts within the JCS/J-5 Long Range Branch of the Department of Defense. The four tasks called for in the contract are described, and the manner in which each of those four tasks were completed is detailed. The report focuses on the actions required to implement a European Forecasting Model onto the NMCSSC computer system and the possibility of adapting that model to other world regions.
Download or read book Ecological Forecasting written by Michael C. Dietze and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2017-05-30 with total page 285 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An authoritative and accessible introduction to the concepts and tools needed to make ecology a more predictive science Ecologists are being asked to respond to unprecedented environmental challenges. How can they provide the best available scientific information about what will happen in the future? Ecological Forecasting is the first book to bring together the concepts and tools needed to make ecology a more predictive science. Ecological Forecasting presents a new way of doing ecology. A closer connection between data and models can help us to project our current understanding of ecological processes into new places and times. This accessible and comprehensive book covers a wealth of topics, including Bayesian calibration and the complexities of real-world data; uncertainty quantification, partitioning, propagation, and analysis; feedbacks from models to measurements; state-space models and data fusion; iterative forecasting and the forecast cycle; and decision support. Features case studies that highlight the advances and opportunities in forecasting across a range of ecological subdisciplines, such as epidemiology, fisheries, endangered species, biodiversity, and the carbon cycle Presents a probabilistic approach to prediction and iteratively updating forecasts based on new data Describes statistical and informatics tools for bringing models and data together, with emphasis on: Quantifying and partitioning uncertainties Dealing with the complexities of real-world data Feedbacks to identifying data needs, improving models, and decision support Numerous hands-on activities in R available online
Download or read book An Introductory Guide to EC Competition Law and Practice written by Valentine Korah and published by . This book was released on 1994 with total page 2354 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Forecasting Forest Futures written by Hamish Kimmins and published by Earthscan. This book was released on 2010 with total page 305 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Modelling is an important tool for understanding the complexity of forest ecosystems and the variety of interactions of ecosystem components, processes and values. This book describes the hybrid approach to modelling forest ecosystems and their possible response to natural and management-induced disturbance. The book describes the FORECAST family of ecosystem management models at three different spatial scales (tree, stand and landscape), and compares them with alternative models at these three spatial scales. The book will help forest managers to understand what to expect from ecosystem-based forest models; serve as a tool for use in teaching about sustainability, scenario analysis and value trade-offs in natural resources management; and assist policy makers, managers and researches working in assessment of sustainable forest management and ecosystem management. Several real-life examples of using the FORECAST family of models in forest management and other applications are presented from countries including Canada, China, Spain and the USA, to illustrate the concepts described in the text. The book also demonstrates how these models can be extended for scenario and value trade-off analysis through visualization and educational or management games.
Download or read book International Futures written by Barry B. Hughes and published by Academic Press. This book was released on 2019-03-20 with total page 330 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: International Futures: Building and Using Global Models extensively covers one of the most advanced systems for integrated, long-term, global and large-scale forecasting analysis available today, the International Futures (IFs) system. Key elements of a strong, long-term global forecasting system are described, i.e. the formulations for the driving variables in separate major models and the manner in which these separate models are integrated. The heavy use of algorithmic and rule-based elements and the use of elements of control theory is also explained. Furthermore, the IFs system is compared and contrasted with all other major modeling efforts, also outlining the major benefits of the IFs system. Finally, the book provides suggestions on how the development of forecasting systems might most productively proceed in the coming years. Helps readers understand the IFs system, not at a detailed equation and technical level, but in terms of the important decisions made that dominate the structure and long-term behavior Presents information on the universe of long-term global forecasting systems, key decisions made, and the range of similarities and differences in the systems Covers the relationship between long-term forecasts in a variety of global issues and the forecasting systems and assumptions that underly them (essential information for forecast consumers)
Download or read book Forecasting Models for Economic and Environmental Applications written by Shou Hsing Shih and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: ABSTRACT: The object of the present study is to introduce three analytical time series models for the purpose of developing more effective economic and environmental forecasting models, among others. Given a stochastic realization, stationary or nonstationary in nature, one can utilize exciting methodology to develop an autoregressive, moving average or a combination of both for short and long term forecasting. In the present study we analytically modify the stochastic realization utilizing (a) a k-th moving average, (b) a k-th weighted moving average and (c) a k-th exponential weighted moving average processes. Thus, we proceed in developing the appropriate forecasting models with the new (modified) time series using the more recent methodologies in the subject matter. Once the proposed statistical forecasting models have been developed, we proceed to modify the analytical process back into the original stochastic realization. The proposed methods have been successfully applied to real stock data from a Fortune 500 company. A similar forecasting model was developed and evaluated for the daily closing price of S & P Price Index of the New York Stock Exchange. The proposed forecasting model was developed along with the statistical model using classical and most recent methods. The effectiveness of the two models was compared using various statistical criteria. The proposed models gave better results. Atmospheric temperature and carbon dioxide, CO2, are the two variables most attributable to GLOBAL WARMING. Using the proposed methods we have developed forecasting statistical models for the continental United States, for both the atmospheric temperature and carbon dioxide. We have developed forecasting models that performed much better than the models using the classical Box-Jenkins type of methodology. Finally, we developed an effective statistical model that relates CO2 and temperature; that is, knowing the atmospheric temperature we can at the specific location estimate the carbon dioxide and vice versa.
Download or read book Air Pollution Modeling and its Application XXVIII written by Clemens Mensink and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2023-01-01 with total page 353 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book states that current developments in air pollution modeling are explored as a series of contributions from researchers at the forefront of their field. This newest contribution on air pollution modeling and its application is focused on local, urban, regional and intercontinental modeling; long-term modeling and trend analysis; data assimilation and air quality forecasting; model assessment and evaluation; aerosol transformation. Additionally, this work also examines the relationship between air quality and human health and the effects of climate change on air quality. This work is a collection of selected papers presented at the 38th International Technical Meeting on Air Pollution Modeling and its Application, held in Barcelona, Spain, Oct 18–22, 2021. The book is intended as reference material for students and professors interested in air pollution modeling at the graduate level as well as researchers and professionals involved in developing and utilizing air pollution models.
