Download or read book Analysis and Prediction of Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity written by Elinor Whitney Keith and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 86 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Keywords: hurricane, tropical cyclone, Atlantic, seasonal prediction.
Download or read book Analysis and Prediction of Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity written by and published by . This book was released on 2004 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This work begins with the development of a statistical prediction model of numbers of tropical storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes per year in several regions of the Atlantic: the entire Atlantic, the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico, as well as landfalling storms along the US Gulf of Mexico, Southeast and Northeast coasts. The methodology involves of cross-correlating variables against Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOFs) of the Hurricane Track Density Function (HTDF) to select predictors. The model performs well in the basin-wide predictions over the entire Atlantic and Caribbean, with the predictions showing an improvement over climatology and random chance at a 95% confidence level. Over the Gulf of Mexico, only named storms showed that level of predictability. Predicting landfalls proves more difficult, and only the prediction of named storms along the US Southeastern and Gulf Coasts shows an improvement over random chance at the 95% confidence level. Tropical cyclone activity along the U.S. Northeastern Coast is found to be unpredictable in this model; with the rarity of events, the model is unstable. In order to provide some physical basis for many of the connections found statistically, the second section is a case study of the 2004-07 Atlantic hurricane seasons. It is found that 2005 had the most favorable SST and vertical wind shear conditions over the main development region. 2004 and 2006 had intermediate levels of SST and wind shear and, outside of the month of August, similar levels of activity. Activity in 2007 was generally suppressed: although more tropical storms formed than in 2006, they were very short-lived. On average, tropical storms in 2007 survived less than 2.5 days. The strength of the subtropical anticyclone is a very important factor: in 2005, a weak subtropical high allowed for unusually high SST in the main development region, while in 2007 a strong subtropical high over the east Atlantic cooled SST and increased vertical wind.
Download or read book Global Perspectives on Tropical Cyclones written by Johnny C. L. Chan and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2010 with total page 445 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Pt. I. Theory of tropical cyclones. ch. 1. Tropical cyclone structure and dynamics / Jeffrey D. Kepert. ch. 2. Tropical cyclone formation / Kevin J. Tory and William M. Frank. ch. 3. Air-sea interactions in tropical cyclones / Lynn K. Shay. ch. 4. Movement of tropical cyclones / Johnny C.L. Chan. ch. 5. The extratropical transition of tropical cyclones : structural characteristics, downstream impacts, and forecast challenges / Patrick A. Harr -- pt. II. Observations of tropical cyclones. ch. 6. Observing and analyzing the near-surface wind field in tropical cyclones / Mark D. Powell. ch. 7. Satellite observations of tropical cyclones / Christopher Velden and Jeffrey Hawkins. ch. 8. Aircraft observations of tropical cyclones / Sim D. Aberson [und weitere] -- pt. III. Climate variations of tropical cyclone activity. ch. 9. Tropical cyclones and climate change : a review / Thomas Knutson, Chris Landsea and Kerry Emanuel -- pt. IV. Forecasting of tropical cyclones. ch. 10. Track and structure forecasts of tropical cyclones / Julian Heming and Jim Goerss. ch. 11. The influence of natural climate variability on tropical cyclones, and seasonal forecasts of tropical cyclone activity / Suzana J. Camargo [und weitere] -- pt. V. Hydrological aspects of tropical cyclones. ch. 12. Storm surge modeling and applications in coastal areas / Shishir K. Dube [und weitere] -- pt. VI. Societal impacts of tropical cyclones. ch. 13. Disaster mitigation and societal impacts / David King, Jim Davidson and Linda Anderson-Berry
Download or read book Hurricanes and Climate Change written by Jennifer M. Collins and published by Springer. This book was released on 2017-02-20 with total page 262 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book provides research that shows tropical cyclones are more powerful than in the past with the most dramatic increases occurring over the North Atlantic and with the strongest hurricanes. Although such increases are correlated with warming oceans and are consistent with the thermodynamic theory of hurricane intensity, there remains doubt about the interpretation, integrity, and meaning of these results. Arising from the 5th International Summit on Hurricanes and Climate Change, this book contains new research on topics related to hurricanes and climate change. Bringing together international leading academics and researchers on various sides of the debate, the book discusses new research and expresses opinions about what is happening and what might happen in the future with regard to regional and global hurricane (tropical cyclone) activity.
Download or read book Hurricanes of the North Atlantic written by James B. Elsner and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 1999-06-10 with total page 505 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Called the greatest storms on the planet, hurricanes of the North Atlantic Ocean often cause tremendous social and economic upheaval in the United States, Mexico, and the Caribbean. And with the increasing development of coastal areas, the impact of these storms will likely increase. This book provides a comprehensive analysis of North Atlantic hurricanes and what they mean to society. It is intended as an intermediary between hurricane climate research and the users of hurricane information. Topics include the climatology of tropical cyclones in general and those of the North Atlantic in particular; the major North Atlantic hurricanes, focusing on U.S. landfalling storms; the prediction models used in forecasting; and societal vulnerability to hurricanes, including ideas for modeling the relationship between climatological data and analysis in the social and economic sciences.
Download or read book Climate Variability and Tropical Cyclone Activity written by Pao-Shin Chu and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2022-03-10 with total page 321 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A comprehensive summary of tropical cyclone variability at time scales from intraseasonal and interannual to interdecadal and centennial. Major climate oscillations (Madden-Julian, El Niño, Atlantic Meridional Mode and Pacific Decadal) are covered, and their impacts on tropical cyclone activity in the Pacific and Atlantic oceans are discussed.
Download or read book An Experiment in Statistical Prediction of Tropical Cyclone Intensity Change written by Robert T. Merrill and published by . This book was released on 1987 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Highlights in Helioclimatology written by Jorge A. Perez-Peraza and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2012-10-22 with total page 307 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Written by pioneers in the field, Highlights in Helioclimatology examines the scientific evidence related to the influence of solar activity on climate and the resulting atmospheric process that creates hurricanes. In addition to providing the science behind the phenomenon, this book also provides tools for aiding in hurricane prediction, specifically spectral analysis and signal theory. In addition to aiding readers in understanding tropical storm and hurricane genesis, intensification, and prediction, Highlights in Helioclimatology also provides an excellent introduction to spectral analysis – an essential tool for anyone who is actively performing research in hurricanes and climatology. Tools that aid in hurricane prediction, specifically spectra analysis and signal theory Various perspectives in hurricane research including matricial theory and principal component analysis Application of cross-wavelet analysis to terrestrial and cosmophysical phenomena to determine their main common resonant frequencies from ultra-short to long-term periodicities
Download or read book Mariner s Guide for Hurricane Awareness in the North Atlantic Basin written by Eric J. Holweg and published by . This book was released on 2001-01-15 with total page 72 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This guide will aid the mariner in understanding the complex structure and behavior of tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic Ocean. Once armed with this knowledge, and the information on where to acquire forecasts and guidance for current tropical cyclones, the mariner can be prepared to "weather the storm" or better yet, avoid these catastrophic events altogether. This guide will discuss some ship routing and hurricane avoidance options with the intention of highlighting critical thought processes, risk analyses and required actions that should be considered in order to remain safe during the threat of a tropical cyclone at sea or in port. Originally published in color by the Tropical Prediction Center & the National Weather Service (TPC/NWS).
Download or read book Prediction of North Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity and Rainfall written by Beda Nidhi Luitel and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 145 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Among natural disasters affecting the United States, North Atlantic tropical cyclones (TCs) and hurricanes are responsible for the highest economic losses and are one of the main causes of fatalities. Although we cannot prevent these storms from occurring, skillful seasonal predictions of the North Atlantic TC activity and associated impacts can provide basic information critical to our improved preparedness. Unfortunately, it is not yet possible to predict heavy rainfall and flooding associated with these storms several months in advance, and the lead time is limited to few days at the most. On the other hand, overall North Atlantic TC activity can be potentially predicted with a six- to nine-month lead time. This thesis focuses on the evaluation of the skill in predicting basin-wide North Atlantic TC activity with a long lead time and rainfall with a short lead time. For the seasonal forecast of TC activity, we develop statistical-dynamical forecasting systems for different quantities related to the frequency and intensity of North Atlantic TCs using only tropical Atlantic and tropical mean sea surface temperatures (SSTs) as covariates. Our results show that skillful predictions of North Atlantic TC activity are possible starting from November for a TC season that peaks in the August-October months. The short term forecasting of rainfall associated with TC activity is based on five numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. Our analyses focused on 15 North Atlantic TCs that made landfall along the U.S. coast over the period of 2007-2012. The skill of the NWP models is quantified by visual examination of the distribution of the errors for the different lead-times, and numerical examination of the first three moments of the error distribution. Based on our results, we conclude that the NWP models can provide skillful forecasts of TC rainfall with lead times up to 48 hours, without a consistently best or worst NWP model.
Download or read book Monitoring and Prediction of Tropical Cyclones in the Indian Ocean and Climate Change written by U.C. Mohanty and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-10-12 with total page 435 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book deals with recent advances in our understanding and prediction of tropical cyclogenesis, intensification and movement as well as landfall processes like heavy rainfall, gale wind and storm surge based on the latest observational and numerical weather prediction (NWP) modeling platforms. It also includes tropical cyclone (TC) management issues like early warning systems, recent high impact TC events, disaster preparedness, assessment of risk and vulnerability including construction, archiving and retrieval of the best tracking and historical data sets, policy decision etc., in view of recent findings on climate change aspects and their impact on TC activity. The chapters are authored by leading experts, both from research and operational environments. This book is relevant to cyclone forecasters and researchers, managers, policy makers, graduate and undergraduate students. It intends to stimulate thinking and hence further research in the field of TCs and climate change, especially over the Indian Ocean region and provides high-quality reference materials for all the users mentioned above for the management of TCs over this region.
Download or read book Hurricane Climatology written by James B. Elsner and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2013-02-04 with total page 390 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Hurricanes are nature's most destructive storms and they are becoming more powerful as the globe warms. Hurricane Climatology explains how to analyze and model hurricane data to better understand and predict present and future hurricane activity. It uses the open-source and now widely used R software for statistical computing to create a tutorial-style manual for independent study, review, and reference. The text is written around the code that when copied will reproduce the graphs, tables, and maps. The approach is different from other books that use R. It focuses on a single topic and explains how to make use of R to better understand the topic. The book is organized into two parts, the first of which provides material on software, statistics, and data. The second part presents methods and models used in hurricane climate research.
Download or read book Hurricanes written by Henry F. Diaz and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 282 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Hurricanes of the North Atlantic Ocean have left their imprint on the landscape and human cultures for thousands of years. In modern times, fewer lifes have been lost due, in part, to the development of modern communication systems, and to improved understanding of the mechanisms of storm formation and movement. However, the immense growth of human populations in coastal areas, which are at risk to hurricanes, has resulted in very large increases in the amount of property damage sustained in the last decade in the Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean regions. This book is of interest to climatologists and meteorologists and as source of information for policymakers and emergency management planners.
Download or read book El Ni o Southern Oscillation in a Changing Climate written by Michael J. McPhaden and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2020-11-24 with total page 528 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Comprehensive and up-to-date information on Earth’s most dominant year-to-year climate variation The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the Pacific Ocean has major worldwide social and economic consequences through its global scale effects on atmospheric and oceanic circulation, marine and terrestrial ecosystems, and other natural systems. Ongoing climate change is projected to significantly alter ENSO's dynamics and impacts. El Niño Southern Oscillation in a Changing Climate presents the latest theories, models, and observations, and explores the challenges of forecasting ENSO as the climate continues to change. Volume highlights include: Historical background on ENSO and its societal consequences Review of key El Niño (ENSO warm phase) and La Niña (ENSO cold phase) characteristics Mathematical description of the underlying physical processes that generate ENSO variations Conceptual framework for understanding ENSO changes on decadal and longer time scales, including the response to greenhouse gas forcing ENSO impacts on extreme ocean, weather, and climate events, including tropical cyclones, and how ENSO affects fisheries and the global carbon cycle Advances in modeling, paleo-reconstructions, and operational climate forecasting Future projections of ENSO and its impacts Factors influencing ENSO events, such as inter-basin climate interactions and volcanic eruptions The American Geophysical Union promotes discovery in Earth and space science for the benefit of humanity. Its publications disseminate scientific knowledge and provide resources for researchers, students, and professionals. Find out more about this book from this Q&A with the editors.
Download or read book Analysis and Forecasting of Tropical Cyclones of 1944 in the Caribbean Sea and Western Atlantic Ocean with the Aid of Aircraft Reconnaissance Reports and Rawins written by United States. Army Air Forces. Weather Division and published by . This book was released on 1945 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book The Indian Ocean Dipole s Influence on Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity written by Alan Joseph Marinaro and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 87 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Improving early tropical cyclone forecasts would assist reinsurance decision makers as they seek information that can minimize risks. Early lead forecasts are based on model variables before December 1 (Year 0) that predict Atlantic tropical cyclone activity (Year +1). The autumn Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) has an 8 to 14 month antecedent correlation with the El Nino - Southern Oscillation (ENSO). ENSO is traditionally the best non-lead and overall predictor of Atlantic tropical cyclone activity. Analyses were performed over a 30-year period from 1984/85-2013/14, with some time variation depending on the test. Correlation, spatial, and wavelet analyses were utilized to find associations between the IOD, west and east components of the IOD, and four other variables related to the following season's ENSO state and tropical cyclone activity. The prior western pole of the October IOD (WIOD) was demonstrated to have statistically significant r-squared values (i.e. 99% confidence interval) to upcoming tropical storm activity (i.e. explained 25% of the variance), named storm counts (28%), and ENSO (21%). The WIOD has no connection with U.S. hurricane landfalls. Wavelet analysis between October IOD variables and following August-October ENSO data was observed to have the best time-frequency relationship. Dynamic reasoning for these relationships reside within the idealized biennial IOD-ENSO cycle, Walker circulation process, and the impact of ENSO on the state of the Atlantic Basin. The WIOD's integration into early-lead forecast models could be an advantage for those in the reinsurance industry and other decision makers impacted by Atlantic tropical cyclonesn.
Download or read book Sub seasonal to Seasonal Prediction written by Andrew Robertson and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2018-10-24 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Gap Between Weather and Climate Forecasting: Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction is an ideal reference for researchers and practitioners across the range of disciplines involved in the science, modeling, forecasting and application of this new frontier in sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) prediction. It provides an accessible, yet rigorous, introduction to the scientific principles and sources of predictability through the unique challenges of numerical simulation and forecasting with state-of-science modeling codes and supercomputers. Additional coverage includes the prospects for developing applications to trigger early action decisions to lessen weather catastrophes, minimize costly damage, and optimize operator decisions. The book consists of a set of contributed chapters solicited from experts and leaders in the fields of S2S predictability science, numerical modeling, operational forecasting, and developing application sectors. The introduction and conclusion, written by the co-editors, provides historical perspective, unique synthesis and prospects, and emerging opportunities in this exciting, complex and interdisciplinary field.
