Download or read book An Ordered Probit Analysis of Transaction Stock Prices written by Jerry A. Hausman and published by . This book was released on 1991 with total page 28 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book An Ordered Probit Analysis of Transaction Stock Prices written by Jerry A. Hausman and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page 74 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We estimate the conditional distribution of trade-to-trade price changes using ordered probit, a statistical model for discrete random variables. Such an approach takes into account the fact that transaction price changes occur in discrete increments, typically eighths of a dollar, and occur at irregularly spaced time intervals. Unlike existing continuous-time/discrete-state models of discrete transaction prices, ordered probit can capture the effects of other economic variables on price changes, such as volume, past price changes, and the time between trades. Using 1988 transactions data for over 100 randomly chosen U.S. stocks, we estimate the ordered probit model via maximum likelihood and use the parameter estimates to measure several transaction-related quantities, such as the price impact of trades of a given size, the tendency towards price reversals from one transaction to the next, and the empirical significance of price discreteness.
Download or read book AN ORDERED PROBIT ANALYSIS OF TRANSACTION STOCK PRICE written by Jerry A. HAUSMAN and published by . This book was released on 1991 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book An Ordered Probit Analysis of Transaction Stock Prices written by Jerry A. Hausman and published by . This book was released on 1991 with total page 92 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We estimate the conditional distribution of trade-to-trade price changes using ordered probit, a statistical model for discrete random variables. Such an approach takes into account the fact that transaction price changes occur in discrete increments, typically eighths of a dollar, and occur at irregularly spaced time intervals. Unlike existing continuous-time/discrete-state models of discrete transaction prices, ordered probit can capture the effects of other economic variables on price changes, such as volume, past price changes, and the time between trades. Using 1988 transactions data for over 100 randomly chosen U.S. stocks, we estimate the ordered probit model via maximum likelihood and use the parameter estimates to measure several transaction-related quantities, such as the price impact of trades of a given size, the tendency towards price reversals from one transaction to the next, and the empirical significance of price discreteness.
Download or read book A Non Random Walk Down Wall Street written by Andrew W. Lo and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2002-01-15 with total page 452 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: For 50 years, financial experts have regarded the movements of markets as a random walk, and this hypothesis has become a cornerstone of modern financial economics. Lo and MacKinlay put the random walk hypothesis to the test in this volume, which elegantly integrates their most important articles.
Download or read book Predicting Stock Price Movements written by Jerry T. Parwada and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 42 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Using stocks from a wide range of industry sectors on the Australian Securities Exchange, this paper examines the conditional distribution of intra-day stock prices and predicts the direction of the next price change in an ordered-probit-GARCH framework that accounts for the discreteness of prices. The analysis also incorporates the endogeneity of the time between trades in an ACD framework. Other elements considered include depth, trade imbalance, and volume. The results show that trade imbalance has a positive effect on the probability of price change. Durations have a negative effect. In-sample and out-of-sample forecasting analyses reveal that in 71% of the cases the system successfully predicts the direction of the subsequent price change.
Download or read book A Non Random Walk Down Wall Street written by Andrew W. Lo and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2011-11-14 with total page 449 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: For over half a century, financial experts have regarded the movements of markets as a random walk--unpredictable meanderings akin to a drunkard's unsteady gait--and this hypothesis has become a cornerstone of modern financial economics and many investment strategies. Here Andrew W. Lo and A. Craig MacKinlay put the Random Walk Hypothesis to the test. In this volume, which elegantly integrates their most important articles, Lo and MacKinlay find that markets are not completely random after all, and that predictable components do exist in recent stock and bond returns. Their book provides a state-of-the-art account of the techniques for detecting predictabilities and evaluating their statistical and economic significance, and offers a tantalizing glimpse into the financial technologies of the future. The articles track the exciting course of Lo and MacKinlay's research on the predictability of stock prices from their early work on rejecting random walks in short-horizon returns to their analysis of long-term memory in stock market prices. A particular highlight is their now-famous inquiry into the pitfalls of "data-snooping biases" that have arisen from the widespread use of the same historical databases for discovering anomalies and developing seemingly profitable investment strategies. This book invites scholars to reconsider the Random Walk Hypothesis, and, by carefully documenting the presence of predictable components in the stock market, also directs investment professionals toward superior long-term investment returns through disciplined active investment management.
Download or read book Recent Advances in Applied Probability written by Ricardo Baeza-Yates and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2006-02-28 with total page 497 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Applied probability is a broad research area that is of interest to scientists in diverse disciplines in science and technology, including: anthropology, biology, communication theory, economics, epidemiology, finance, geography, linguistics, medicine, meteorology, operations research, psychology, quality control, sociology, and statistics. Recent Advances in Applied Probability is a collection of survey articles that bring together the work of leading researchers in applied probability to present current research advances in this important area. This volume will be of interest to graduate students and researchers whose research is closely connected to probability modelling and their applications. It is suitable for one semester graduate level research seminar in applied probability.
Download or read book Mathematical Finance Bachelier Congress 2000 written by Helyette Geman and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-11-11 with total page 522 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Bachelier Society for Mathematical Finance held its first World Congress in Paris last year, and coincided with the centenary of Louis Bacheliers thesis defence. In his thesis Bachelier introduces Brownian motion as a tool for the analysis of financial markets as well as the exact definition of options. The thesis is viewed by many the key event that marked the emergence of mathematical finance as a scientific discipline. The prestigious list of plenary speakers in Paris included two Nobel laureates, Paul Samuelson and Robert Merton, and the mathematicians Henry McKean and S.R.S. Varadhan. Over 130 further selected talks were given in three parallel sessions. .
Download or read book Financial Microeconometrics written by Marek Gruszczyński and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2019-11-23 with total page 228 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book explores new topics in modern research on empirical corporate finance and applied accounting, especially the econometric analysis of microdata. Dubbed “financial microeconometrics” by the author, this concept unites both methodological and applied approaches. The book examines how quantitative methods can be applied in corporate finance and accounting research in order to predict companies getting into financial distress. Presented in a clear and straightforward manner, it also suggests methods for linking corporate governance to financial performance, and discusses what the determinants of accounting disclosures are. Exploring these questions by way of numerous practical examples, this book is intended for researchers, practitioners and students who are not yet familiar with the variety of approaches available for data analysis and microeconometrics. “This book on financial microeconometrics is an excellent starting point for research in corporate finance and accounting. In my view, the text is positioned between a narrative and a scientific treatise. It is based on a vast amount of literature but is not overloaded with formulae. My appreciation of financial microeconometrics has very much increased. The book is well organized and properly written. I enjoyed reading it.” Wolfgang Marty, Senior Investment Strategist, AgaNola AG
Download or read book The Economy As an Evolving Complex System III written by Lawrence E. Blume and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2006 with total page 396 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Derived from the 2001 Santa Fe Institute Conference, "The Economy as an Evolving Complex System III" addresses a wide variety of issues in the fields of economics and complexity, accessing eclectic techniques from many disciplines, provided that they shed light on the economic problem. The subject, a perennial centerpiece of the SFI program of studies, has gained a wide range of followers for its methods of employing empirical evidence in the development of analytical economic theories.
Download or read book The Econometrics of Sequential Trade Models written by Stefan Kokot and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2004-02-09 with total page 218 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This clearly structured and well-written reference work examines the consequences of speculative trading based on private information about financial asset markets. It presents an extensive and thorough discussion of theoretical and empirical methods used in previous studies on sequential trade models. The text also introduces a new framework for estimation and hypothesis testing that substantially advances earlier work in the field. The results that are necessary for understanding the introduced empirical framework are derived step-by-step. The text is ideally suited as a reference work on old and new results as well as a textbook for graduate courses on market microstructure theory, empirical methods in finance or econometrics.
Download or read book Noise Trading Central Bank Interventions and the Informational Content of Foreign Currency Options written by Christian Pierdzioch and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2001-12-06 with total page 232 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A flexible instrument to insure against adverse exchange rate movements are options on foreign currency. Often a relatively simple foreign currency option valuation model is used to address issues related to the pricing and hedging of such options. The results of many empirical studies document that real-world foreign currency option premia deviate from those predicted by the baseline model. In the first part of the book, it is shown that a noise trader model can help to explain the observed mispricing of the baseline foreign currency option pricing model. In the second part of the book, it is studied how policymakers can exploit the pricing errors of the baseline model. In particular, it is examined how option pricing theory can be applied to assess the effectiveness of central bank interventions in the foreign exchange market. To this end, a model is constructed to analyze the effectiveness of the interventions conducted by the Deutsche Bundesbank during the Louvre period.
Download or read book Financial Econometrics written by Christian Gourieroux and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2018-06-05 with total page 529 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Financial econometrics is a great success story in economics. Econometrics uses data and statistical inference methods, together with structural and descriptive modeling, to address rigorous economic problems. Its development within the world of finance is quite recent and has been paralleled by a fast expansion of financial markets and an increasing variety and complexity of financial products. This has fueled the demand for people with advanced econometrics skills. For professionals and advanced graduate students pursuing greater expertise in econometric modeling, this is a superb guide to the field's frontier. With the goal of providing information that is absolutely up-to-date—essential in today's rapidly evolving financial environment—Gourieroux and Jasiak focus on methods related to foregoing research and those modeling techniques that seem relevant to future advances. They present a balanced synthesis of financial theory and statistical methodology. Recognizing that any model is necessarily a simplified image of reality and that econometric methods must be adapted and applied on a case-by-case basis, the authors employ a wide variety of data sampled at frequencies ranging from intraday to monthly. These data comprise time series representing both the European and North American markets for stocks, bonds, and foreign currencies. Practitioners are encouraged to keep a critical eye and are armed with graphical diagnostics to eradicate misspecification errors. This authoritative, state-of-the-art reference text is ideal for upper-level graduate students, researchers, and professionals seeking to update their skills and gain greater facility in using econometric models. All will benefit from the emphasis on practical aspects of financial modeling and statistical inference. Doctoral candidates will appreciate the inclusion of detailed mathematical derivations of the deeper results as well as the more advanced problems concerning high-frequency data and risk control. By establishing a link between practical questions and the answers provided by financial and statistical theory, the book also addresses the needs of applied researchers employed by financial institutions.
Download or read book State Space Models written by Yong Zeng and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-08-15 with total page 358 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: State-space models as an important mathematical tool has been widely used in many different fields. This edited collection explores recent theoretical developments of the models and their applications in economics and finance. The book includes nonlinear and non-Gaussian time series models, regime-switching and hidden Markov models, continuous- or discrete-time state processes, and models of equally-spaced or irregularly-spaced (discrete or continuous) observations. The contributed chapters are divided into four parts. The first part is on Particle Filtering and Parameter Learning in Nonlinear State-Space Models. The second part focuses on the application of Linear State-Space Models in Macroeconomics and Finance. The third part deals with Hidden Markov Models, Regime Switching and Mathematical Finance and the fourth part is on Nonlinear State-Space Models for High Frequency Financial Data. The book will appeal to graduate students and researchers studying state-space modeling in economics, statistics, and mathematics, as well as to finance professionals.
Download or read book Statistical Models and Methods for Financial Markets written by Tze Leung Lai and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2008-09-08 with total page 363 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The idea of writing this bookarosein 2000when the ?rst author wasassigned to teach the required course STATS 240 (Statistical Methods in Finance) in the new M. S. program in ?nancial mathematics at Stanford, which is an interdisciplinary program that aims to provide a master’s-level education in applied mathematics, statistics, computing, ?nance, and economics. Students in the programhad di?erent backgroundsin statistics. Some had only taken a basic course in statistical inference, while others had taken a broad spectrum of M. S. - and Ph. D. -level statistics courses. On the other hand, all of them had already taken required core courses in investment theory and derivative pricing, and STATS 240 was supposed to link the theory and pricing formulas to real-world data and pricing or investment strategies. Besides students in theprogram,thecoursealso attractedmanystudentsfromother departments in the university, further increasing the heterogeneity of students, as many of them had a strong background in mathematical and statistical modeling from the mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences but no previous experience in ?nance. To address the diversity in background but common strong interest in the subject and in a potential career as a “quant” in the ?nancialindustry,thecoursematerialwascarefullychosennotonlytopresent basic statistical methods of importance to quantitative ?nance but also to summarize domain knowledge in ?nance and show how it can be combined with statistical modeling in ?nancial analysis and decision making. The course material evolved over the years, especially after the second author helped as the head TA during the years 2004 and 2005.
Download or read book Hedge Funds written by Andrew W. Lo and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2010-07-01 with total page 388 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The hedge fund industry has grown dramatically over the last two decades, with more than eight thousand funds now controlling close to two trillion dollars. Originally intended for the wealthy, these private investments have now attracted a much broader following that includes pension funds and retail investors. Because hedge funds are largely unregulated and shrouded in secrecy, they have developed a mystique and allure that can beguile even the most experienced investor. In Hedge Funds, Andrew Lo--one of the world's most respected financial economists--addresses the pressing need for a systematic framework for managing hedge fund investments. Arguing that hedge funds have very different risk and return characteristics than traditional investments, Lo constructs new tools for analyzing their dynamics, including measures of illiquidity exposure and performance smoothing, linear and nonlinear risk models that capture alternative betas, econometric models of hedge fund failure rates, and integrated investment processes for alternative investments. In a new chapter, he looks at how the strategies for and regulation of hedge funds have changed in the aftermath of the financial crisis.
