Download or read book An Investigation of Selected Effects of Overconfidence on Business Success and on the Valuation by Market Participants written by Walid Esmatyar and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Impact of Overoptimism and Overconfidence on Economic Behavior written by Andreas Müller and published by diplom.de. This book was released on 2007-11-01 with total page 80 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Inhaltsangabe:Introduction: Economic theory normally focuses on rational agents optimizing individual utility. Since the second half of the 20th century, this viewpoint has been enriched by findings from the field of psychology. A new trait of research was created called behavioral economics . It takes into account subjective characteristics such as asymmetric preference and judgment, or limits of rational processing, willpower, and greed. This paper aims to give an overview of two related human traits that have attracted particularly wide interest, namely overconfidence and overoptimism. The two are closely related to each other, and often used synonymously. Broadly speaking, overconfidence results in underestimation of future risks, e.g. the riskiness of future cash flows, whilst overoptimism leads to an overestimation of future positive outcomes, e.g. the future returns of a company. Besides, the paper wants to deduct suggestions for further research, by systematically identifying uncovered topics in existing literature. Usually Alpert and Raiffa are credited with the first discovery of overconfidence. However, the most influential study is probably Russo and Schoemaker. It was published in the Sloan Management Review and communicated the topic to a broader audience for the first time. In particular, it revealed that assumingly rational managers were prone to overconfidence, too. This challenged traditional management doctrines and generated interest in a better understanding of the topic and further research. To exemplify overconfidence, Russo and Schoemaker asked managers to give numerical intervals for ten general-knowledge questions, such that nine out of the ten answers would be correct. On average participants included the correct value within their interval only 5 out of 10 times, i.e. they underestimated potential errors in their estimations. Svenson is probably the most influential source regarding overoptimism. He made the subject intuitively understandable and established a standard measurement method that could be easily used for subsequent research. To give an example of overoptimism: Svenson asked students to compare their driving skills to those of their classmates. Roughly 80% believed they belonged to the top 50%, i.e. they overestimated their abilities. This paper also provides a closer look at the empirical methods normally applied in field studies. Although the phenomena are intuitively understandable, empirical research [...]

Download or read book Overconfidence Review of its Economic Implications written by Stefan Dietrich and published by GRIN Verlag. This book was released on 2018-05-02 with total page 23 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Essay from the year 2017 in the subject Psychology - Work, Business, Organisation, grade: 1,00, University of Mannheim, course: Behavioral Economics Seminar, language: English, abstract: Overconfidence is believed to be one of the most widespread behavioral biases. Empirical evidence supports this argument in many instances and differentiates between various forms and manifestations. Whether this is in sum economically negative for the individual or society remains unanswered in the literature. I analyze the economic implications of overconfidence based on recent research and connects them to reasons and viable solutions to overcome this bias in certain areas of the economic realm: consumer choices, market entry and decision making of firms, financial markets and bubbles.

Download or read book Managerial Overconfidence Different Thinking through Different Education written by Maximilian Margolin and published by Anchor Academic Publishing (aap_verlag). This book was released on 2014-02-01 with total page 82 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In literature, overconfidence has been blamed for economic bubbles and crises as well as for international conflicts and wars. While education has already been shown to impact one’s level of overconfidence previous research focused on the length and profoundness of education. This study, in contrast, examines the connection between overconfidence and the field in which a person has been educated. The issues covered are therefore how education and mind set are related, why a differentiation between “quantitative” and “qualitative” education makes sense in this context, and how different mind-sets influence an individual’s proneness to overconfidence. Drawing on the dual process concept of reasoning from psychology it is argued that the focus of one’s education may have an influence on individual levels of overconfidence through distinct ways of reasoning that are acquired and practiced during higher education. As support for this theory, data on the overconfidence of CEOs of the largest German companies is used and experiments for future research on this topic are suggested.

Download or read book Managerial Overconfidence and Education Insights from Dual Process Theory written by Maximilian Margolin and published by GRIN Verlag. This book was released on 2013-02-07 with total page 90 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Master's Thesis from the year 2012 in the subject Business economics - Miscellaneous, grade: 1,3, University of Mannheim, course: Business economics, language: English, abstract: Based on data from German DAX-CEOs in this thesis it is argued, that in different fields of education individuals acquire different mind-sets which influence their proneness to overconfidence. Using the framework of dual process reasoning it is proposed that education in quantitative fields, such as mathematics or physics, hampers overconfidence while individuals educated in qualitative fields, such as law or the humanities, become more prone to overconfidence.

Download or read book Overconfidence written by Dominik Manuel Piehlmaier and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page 279 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This cumulative dissertation consists of three studies that examine the presence and impact of overconfidence on young children, college students, and investors. First, the manuscript sheds light on the impact of shared decision-making on overconfidence. It is the first study to combine secondary and primary data to show that experimental participants who make their decisions in tandem with others are less affected by the cognitive bias than those who decide on their own. Secondary data suggest that consulting friends and family is associated with a more pronounced reduction in excessive confidence than solely relying on professional financial advice. Second, the dissertation revisits the issue of gender on investor overconfidence. A person's gender has previously been associated with the presence or absence of excessive confidence in finance. The results from multiple independent datasets provide evidence that male investors are not per se more overconfident than women. Among lone decision-makers, female financial actors exhibit more excessive confidence in their financial and investment knowledge than men. Furthermore, they seem equally likely to engage in reckless financial behavior. The outcome suggests that the presence of excessive confidence may depend on the type of decision-maker rather than a person's gender. Lastly, findings from the dissertation show that not only adults are affected by the bias. Previous studies provide evidence of its presence among young decision-makers in highly controlled lab settings. This study uses a double-blind randomized controlled trial in which 4- to 6-year-olds illustrate substantial overconfidence in their ability to win stickers while playing an unfamiliar card game that mirrors simplified aspects of financial markets. Even after 60 trials and regular feedback on their performance, almost every second child continues to be overconfident. This is the first study to show that overconfidence persists under more realistic circumstances with a large number of repetitions, feedback, and performance-based incentives. Randomly selected participants are exposed to a video sequence that provides implicit feedback and additional information which further increases excessive confidence. The three studies use innovative methods and approaches to provide novel insights into the nature of overconfidence.

Download or read book Overconfidence and its Influence on Risk written by Christopher Knoll and published by GRIN Verlag. This book was released on 2021-11-18 with total page 11 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Seminar paper from the year 2016 in the subject Psychology - Industrial and organizational psychology, grade: 1.7, University of Passau, course: Behavioral Economics and the Seven Sins, language: English, abstract: In a study conducted in 1980 drivers were surveyed about their driving skills in comparison to a group of others. In her experiment, Svenson analyses how people judge their own skill and risk taking engaged in risky activities. The result of the experiment shows that 88% of US subjects and 77% of Swedish subjects judged their skills above the average skill in their subject group. Preston and Harris (1965) indicate even more bias from subjects. They compared 50 drivers which were involved in accidents, besides being hospitalized, they still showed means stating that they judged themselves more skillful than the average driver. The central element of the economic paradigm is homo economicus. Homo economicus is described as an individual with rational actions. The homo economicus faces a situation with limited resources to satisfy his needs. Therefore, the homo economicus uses rational decisions to optimize his outcome and gain the highest utility possible. Behavioral economic research on the other hand distinguishes a deviance of human behavior from the rational homo economicus as can be observed in Svenson’s study. The behavior is called overconfidence, which is a widely discussed phenomenon in behavioral economic literature. Psychological studies show that most people are overconfident about their own relative abilities, tend to underestimate their competition and make unreasonably optimistic predictions about their futures. In the following, the characteristics of the behavioral model of overconfidence will be further discussed. Subsequently, the influence of overconfidence on risk taking will be evaluated.

Download or read book A Behavioral Approach to Asset Pricing written by Hersh Shefrin and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2008-05-19 with total page 636 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Behavioral finance is the study of how psychology affects financial decision making and financial markets. It is increasingly becoming the common way of understanding investor behavior and stock market activity. Incorporating the latest research and theory, Shefrin offers both a strong theory and efficient empirical tools that address derivatives, fixed income securities, mean-variance efficient portfolios, and the market portfolio. The book provides a series of examples to illustrate the theory. The second edition continues the tradition of the first edition by being the one and only book to focus completely on how behavioral finance principles affect asset pricing, now with its theory deepened and enriched by a plethora of research since the first edition

Download or read book Information Overconfidence and Investments written by Kimberly Allen and published by . This book was released on 2003 with total page 112 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Handbook of Research on Stock Market Investment Practices and Portfolio Management written by Sharma, Renuka and published by IGI Global. This book was released on 2022-06-30 with total page 496 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: For the first time since the Great Depression, financial market issues threatened to derail global economic growth. This global financial crisis forced a reconsideration of systemic vulnerabilities with knowledge of numerous investment options and portfolio management strategies becoming more critical than ever before. A complete study of investment choices and portfolio management approaches in both the developing and developed worlds is required to achieve stability and sustainability. The Handbook of Research on Stock Market Investment Practices and Portfolio Management gives a thorough view on the recent developments in investment options and portfolio management strategies in global stock markets. Learning about the many investment options and portfolio management strategies available in the event of a worldwide catastrophe is critical. Covering topics such as AI-based technical analysis, marketing theory, and sharing economy, this major reference work is an excellent resource for investors, traders, economists, business leaders and executives, marketers, students and faculty of higher education, librarians, researchers, and academicians.

Download or read book Why Startups Fail written by Tom Eisenmann and published by Currency. This book was released on 2021-03-30 with total page 370 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: If you want your startup to succeed, you need to understand why startups fail. “Whether you’re a first-time founder or looking to bring innovation into a corporate environment, Why Startups Fail is essential reading.”—Eric Ries, founder and CEO, LTSE, and New York Times bestselling author of The Lean Startup and The Startup Way Why do startups fail? That question caught Harvard Business School professor Tom Eisenmann by surprise when he realized he couldn’t answer it. So he launched a multiyear research project to find out. In Why Startups Fail, Eisenmann reveals his findings: six distinct patterns that account for the vast majority of startup failures. • Bad Bedfellows. Startup success is thought to rest largely on the founder’s talents and instincts. But the wrong team, investors, or partners can sink a venture just as quickly. • False Starts. In following the oft-cited advice to “fail fast” and to “launch before you’re ready,” founders risk wasting time and capital on the wrong solutions. • False Promises. Success with early adopters can be misleading and give founders unwarranted confidence to expand. • Speed Traps. Despite the pressure to “get big fast,” hypergrowth can spell disaster for even the most promising ventures. • Help Wanted. Rapidly scaling startups need lots of capital and talent, but they can make mistakes that leave them suddenly in short supply of both. • Cascading Miracles. Silicon Valley exhorts entrepreneurs to dream big. But the bigger the vision, the more things that can go wrong. Drawing on fascinating stories of ventures that failed to fulfill their early promise—from a home-furnishings retailer to a concierge dog-walking service, from a dating app to the inventor of a sophisticated social robot, from a fashion brand to a startup deploying a vast network of charging stations for electric vehicles—Eisenmann offers frameworks for detecting when a venture is vulnerable to these patterns, along with a wealth of strategies and tactics for avoiding them. A must-read for founders at any stage of their entrepreneurial journey, Why Startups Fail is not merely a guide to preventing failure but also a roadmap charting the path to startup success.

Download or read book Reference Book of Corporate Managements written by Dun and Bradstreet, inc and published by . This book was released on 1993 with total page 886 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Overconfidence and Effect on Firm Financial Decisions in the Context of Behavioral Corporate Finance written by Bilgehan Tekin and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this study it is examined the effect of managerial overconfidence on financial decisions. The financial decisions that into account in this research are consist of capital structure, investment and dividend payment. Survey method was used for data collection purpose. The survey contains questions that measure overconfidence and to obtain information about financial decisions and about the participants. The study covers 255 companies operating in Istanbul. Parametric and nonparametric hypothesis tests were performed to analyze the data. As a result of the study, found that the managers had a high degree of overconfidence bias and this bias had a certain level of influence on the financial decisions.

Download or read book Behavioral Corporate Finance written by Hersh Shefrin and published by College Ie Overruns. This book was released on 2017-04-16 with total page 300 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book A Study of Existence of Overconfidence Biases Among Investors and Its Impact on Investment Decision written by Bhoomika Trehan and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page 15 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In current scenario, behavioral finance plays an important role in investment decision making. Investment decision has become a complex decision with the availability of investment choices, accessibility of information and increased size of the market. There are various options or choices available for the investors in the market while taking investment decisions. Decision making means final selection of the best alternatives which are available for the investors in the market; some investment decision are easy and other investment decision are the complex overconfidence bias among the investors of Lucknow. Overconfidence variables were identified with extensive literature review as selfattribution, optimism, better than average effect, miscalibration, illusion of control, trading frequency and trading experience. To identify the influence of these variables in investor's decision making, structured questionnaire based on 5 point Likert Scale was used. With relevant statistical tools, it was found that investors are overconfident about their investment decisions, skills, knowledge, ability to choose stocks, control of portfolio, future investment plans and views about the stock market. and require the multiple approach.

Download or read book Behavioral Finance and Wealth Management written by Michael M. Pompian and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2011-01-31 with total page 393 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "Pompian is handing you the magic book, the one that reveals your behavioral flaws and shows you how to avoid them. The tricks to success are here. Read and do not stop until you are one of very few magicians." —Arnold S. Wood, President and Chief Executive Officer, Martingale Asset Management Fear and greed drive markets, as well as good and bad investment decision-making. In Behavioral Finance and Wealth Management, financial expert Michael Pompian shows you, whether you're an investor or a financial advisor, how to make better investment decisions by employing behavioral finance research. Pompian takes a practical approach to the science of behavioral finance and puts it to use in the real world. He reveals 20 of the most prominent individual investor biases and helps you properly modify your asset allocation decisions based on the latest research on behavioral anomalies of individual investors.

Download or read book Overconfidence and Moral Hazard written by and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: