Download or read book An Essay on the Theory of Economic Prediction written by Lawrence Robert Klein and published by Chicago : Markham Publishing Company. This book was released on 1970 with total page 150 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Economic Information Decision and Prediction written by M. Marschak and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 1974-12-31 with total page 422 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Three Essays on Economic Forecasting and Theory Examination written by Dong Yan and published by . This book was released on 2004 with total page 156 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In the first chapter, Monte Carlo simulation and bootstrap methods are used to compare the actual and nominal coverage probabilities of prediction intervals constructed using the Prais-Winsten modified weighted symmetric least squares (PW-MWSLS) estimation method. The evidence suggests that the PW-MWSLS estimator, the best point predictor, for the linear trend model with first-order autoregressive errors also leads to prediction intervals with the most accurate coverage rates for the linear trend model with first-order autoregressive errors. The second chapter employs an innovative methodology to construct inflation expectations by incorporating information in the commodity futures market. The empirical results from the vector dynamic system show that the constructed expected rate of inflation series provides the best in-sample and out-of-sample forecasts over the sample period under investigation. Chapter three applies the constructed time series of inflation expectations in the second chapter to examine two broadly debated topics in the field of economics, the Fisher effect and the Phillips curve. The findings provide support for the existence of the short-run Fisher effect; and for the examination of the two main alternative specifications of the Phillips curve, the New Keynesian Phillips curve and the expectations-augmented Phillips curve, the empirical evidence is in favor of the former.
Download or read book Essays on Philosophy and Economic Methodology written by Daniel M. Hausman and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 1992-11-27 with total page 272 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This collection brings together the essays of one of the foremost American philosophers of economics. Cumulatively they offer fresh perspectives on foundational questions such as: what sort of science is economics? and how successful can economists be in acquiring knowledge of their subject matter?
Download or read book Philosophico Methodological Analysis of Prediction and its Role in Economics written by Wenceslao J. Gonzalez and published by Springer. This book was released on 2015-02-19 with total page 375 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book develops a philosophico-methodological analysis of prediction and its role in economics. Prediction plays a key role in economics in various ways. It can be seen as a basic science, as an applied science and in the application of this science. First, it is used by economic theory in order to test the available knowledge. In this regard, prediction has been presented as the scientific test for economics as a science. Second, prediction provides a content regarding the possible future that can be used for prescription in applied economics. Thus, it can be used as a guide for economic policy, i.e., as knowledge concerning the future to be employed for the resolution of specific problems. Third, prediction also has a role in the application of this science in the public arena. This is through the decision-making of the agents — individuals or organizations — in quite different settings, both in the realm of microeconomics and macroeconomics. Within this context, the research is organized in five parts, which discuss relevant aspects of the role of prediction in economics: I) The problem of prediction as a test for a science; II) The general orientation in methodology of science and the problem of prediction as a scientific test; III) The methodological framework of social sciences and economics: Incidence for prediction as a test; IV) Epistemology and methodology of economic prediction: Rationality and empirical approaches and V) Methodological aspects of economic prediction: From description to prescription. Thus, the book is of interest for philosophers and economists as well as policy-makers seeking to ascertain the roots of their performance. The style used lends itself to a wide audience.
Download or read book An essay on the economic prediction written by Lawrence R. Klein and published by . This book was released on 1971 with total page 140 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Three Essays on the State of Economic Science written by Tjalling Charles Koopmans and published by McGraw-Hill Companies. This book was released on 1957 with total page 256 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Essays on Genetic Evolution and Economics written by Terence C. Burnham and published by Universal-Publishers. This book was released on 1997 with total page 164 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Ever since Charles Darwin published The Origin of Species in 1859, genetic evolutionary theory has increasingly served as the foundation for fields that deal with organisms that arose by natural selection. This thesis argues that economic theory should integrate with Darwinian theory through the creation of a "genetic evolutionary economics". The promise of genetic evolutionary economics is a better understanding of human nature and, consequently, a more accurate and comprehensive economic science. Economic theory rests on a set of assumptions about human nature. These economic axioms concern human genes, but there is no explicit connection between genetic evolution and economic theory. As a result, human behavior and economic predictions of that behavior diverge in a variety of important settings. Why, for example, do most people save too little for the future when economics assumes that they will save enough? Chapter 2 discusses the difficulties inherent in the standard economic approach. Natural selection theory, the chapter argues, is the best tool for refining the axioms of economics. Genetic evolutionary economics allows the derivation of parameters that are intractable with standard economic techniques. There is, for instance, an ancient debate within economics about the role of self-interest in human affairs. Chapter 3 builds a genetic evolutionary model relevant to this issue, and concludes that a Darwinian lens removes many of the apparent paradoxes. Genetic evolutionary economics is a scientific endeavor. As such, it produces specific, testable hypotheses concerning behavior in economically relevant situations. Chapter 4 reports on a theoretical and experimental investigation of gift giving. A genetic evolutionary model organizes the existing data on gift giving and makes novel, testable predictions. Laboratory experiments, performed to test the theory, confirm the evolutionary model's predictions.
Download or read book A Critical Essay on Modern Macroeconomic Theory written by Frank Hahn and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 1997 with total page 174 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In the early 1980s, rational expectations and new classical economics dominated macroeconomic theory. This essay evolved from theauthors' profound disagreement with that trend. It demonstrates notonly how the new classical view got macroeconomics wrong, but also howto go about doing macroeconomics the right way.
Download or read book Paul Samuelson and the Foundations of Modern Economics written by K. Puttaswamaiah and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2019-01-22 with total page 264 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Paul A. Samuelson was the first American Nobel Laureate in economics, and the second overall. He was credited for "the scientific work through which he has developed static and dynamic economic theory and actively contributed to raising the level of analysis in economic science." That recognition is now thirty years old and Samuelson remains at work in the cutting edge of the discipline. He is also widely known for a basic textbook that became a landmark learning tool throughout the second half of the twentieth century. This excellent collegial appreciation focuses heavily on Samuelson's Foundations of Economic Analysis. In that work, and a series of brief essays, he has contributed to an integration of statics and dynamics by way of the correspondence principle. He has also combined the multiplier and accelerator mechanisms in a model of economic fluctuations; he has reformed the foundations of consumption theory by his concept of revealed preferences; he has developed or improved several major theorems within international trade; and created theories of maximum efficiency and maximum growth rate. Finally, he has clarified the role of collective goods in resource allocation. In considering the work and life of Samuelson, editor Puttaswamaiah, has assembled a worthy group of brilliant commentators. Among the analytic papers in this volume are "An essay on the Accuracy of Economic Prediction" by L.R. Klein, "Analytical Aspects of Anti-Inflation Policy" by Robert M. Solow, a paper by Vittorangelo Orati on Samuelson's linkage to Schumpeter and Keynes, "Money and Price Theory by Carlo Benetti and Jean Cartelier, and a concluding essay on "The Role of Samuelson's Economics" by Michael Emmett Brady. Most unusual in works of this kind are some strong critical statements, including a pungent examination of vanity as well as creativity in Samuelson's work. What emerges is a clear picture of a special scholar. Scholars and students will welcome it alike-a result that well fits the purpose and character of Samuelson. The festschrift has its origins in several issues of the International Journal of Applied Economics and Econometrics. Professor K. Puttaswamaiah has more than three decades of editing journals in economics. He is a member of the journal; Savings and Development issued at the University of Milan. He is author of Economic Development of Karnataka, Cost-Benefit Analysis, and Nobel Economists: Lives and Contributions.
Download or read book Essays in Positive Economics written by Milton Friedman and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 1953 with total page 336 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper is concerned primarily with certain methodological problems that arise in constructing the "distinct positive science" that John Neville Keynes called for, in particular, the problem how to decide whether a suggested hypothesis or theory should be tentatively accepted as part of the "body of systematized knowledge concerning what is."
Download or read book Business Cycles written by Victor Zarnowitz and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2007-11-01 with total page 613 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume presents the most complete collection available of the work of Victor Zarnowitz, a leader in the study of business cycles, growth, inflation, and forecasting.. With characteristic insight, Zarnowitz examines theories of the business cycle, including Keynesian and monetary theories and more recent rational expectation and real business cycle theories. He also measures trends and cycles in economic activity; evaluates the performance of leading indicators and their composite measures; surveys forecasting tools and performance of business and academic economists; discusses historical changes in the nature and sources of business cycles; and analyzes how successfully forecasting firms and economists predict such key economic variables as interest rates and inflation.
Download or read book Economic Information Decision and Prediction written by Jacob Marschak and published by . This book was released on 1974 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book On Economic Man written by David Miles Bensusan-Butt and published by Canberra: Australian National University Press. This book was released on 1978 with total page 208 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Economic Possibilities for Our Grandchildren written by John Maynard Keynes and published by . This book was released on 1987-04-01 with total page 12 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Essays in Economic Theory written by Bruno Salcedo Gonzalez and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The present dissertation consists of three independent essays on Game Theory and its applications to Economics. The first essay compares two standard notions of rational choice under uncertainty: dominance by pure actions, and dominance by pure or mixed actions. I show that these two notions are equivalent for agents that exhibit sufficient risk aversion. Moreover, risk aversion is a cardinal property. Thus, the different forms of dominance considered cannot be distinguished based solely on the ordinal data that can be directly inferred from observed choices.The second essay explores the consequences of relaxing a standard assumption in the analysis of strategic situations: the assumption that choices are made simultaneously and independently. Choice interdependence can have drastic consequences. For example, it can enable cooperation in some single-shot prisoners dilemmas without the use of binding contracts or side payments. I consider a class partially specified environments in which the actions available to each agent and the agents preferences are fixed, but the sequential and information structures of choices are design variables. I propose a simple and tractable solution conceptinterdependent choice equilibriumthat fully characterizes all the outcomes that can be implemented in such environments without contracts or side-payments.The third essay proposes a model of dynamic price competition between firms that use automated pricing algorithms to set their prices. In my model, algorithms are fixed in the short run but can be revised at exogenous dates, and each firms is able to decode its rivals algorithm. I show that, when the revision opportunities are infrequent relative to the arrival of consumers into the market, every sub-game perfect equilibrium of the game leads in the long run to profits that are arbitrarily close to the Pareto frontier. That is, the use of pricing algorithms might not only facilitate collusion, but might inevitably lead to it. In contrast with the plethora of equilibria that typically arises in models of repeated competition, my model is able to generate sharp predictions about the behavior of the firms in the long run.
Download or read book Foundations of Neuroeconomic Analysis written by Paul W. Glimcher and published by OUP USA. This book was released on 2011 with total page 488 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Neuroeconomics has emerged at the border of the social and natural sciences. This book argues that a meaningful interdisciplinary synthesis of the study of human and animal choice is not only desirable, but also well underway, and so it is time to develop formally a foundational approach for the field.
