Download or read book A Philosophical Essay on Probabilities written by Pierre Simon marquis de Laplace and published by . This book was released on 1902 with total page 238 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Estimating and Choosing written by Georges Matheron and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 147 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Ever since the beginning of modern probability theory in the seventeenth century there has been a continuous debate over the meaning and applicability of the concept of probability. This book presents a coherent and well thoughtout framework for the use of probabilistic models to describe unique phenomena in a purely objective way. Although Estimating and Choosing was written with geostatistical applications in mind, the approach is of general applicability across the whole spectrum of probabilistic modelling. The only full-fledged treatment of the foundations of practical probability modelling ever written, this book fills an important gap in the literature of probability and statistics.
Download or read book An Essay on Probabilities and their Application to Life Contingencies and Insurance Offices written by Augustus De Morgan and published by BoD – Books on Demand. This book was released on 2024-08-29 with total page 370 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Reprint of the original, first published in 1838.
Download or read book Probability is the Very Guide of Life written by Henry Ely Kyburg and published by Open Court Publishing. This book was released on 2003 with total page 388 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This collection of philosophical essays looks at various technical problems in the use of probability theory for guidance in practical decisions. This text is intended for those who already have a basic grounding in philosophy, logic and probabilty theory.
Download or read book The Estimation of Probabilities written by Irving John Good and published by Mit Press. This book was released on 2003-02-01 with total page 122 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The problem of how to estimate probabilities has interested philosophers, statisticians, actuaries, and mathematicians for a long time. It is currently of interest for automatic recognition, medical diagnosis, and artificial intelligence in general. The main purpose of this monograph is to review existing methods, especially those that are new or have not been written up in a connected manner. The need for nontrivial theory arises because our samples are usually too small for us to rely exclusively on the frequency definition of probability. Most of the techniques described in this book depend on a modern Bayesian approach. The maximum-entropy principle, also relevant to this discussion, is used in the last chapter. It is hoped that the book will stimulate further work in a field whose importance will increasingly be recognized. Methods for estimating probabilities are related to another part of statistics, namely, significance testing, and examples of this relationship are also presented. Many readers will be persuaded by this work that it is necessary to make use of a theory of subjective probability in order to estimate physical probabilities; and also that a useful idea is that of a hierarchy of three types of probability which can sometimes be identified with, physical, logical, and subjective probabilities. The Estimation of Probabilities is intended for statisticians, probabilists, philosophers of science, mathematicians, medical diagnosticians, and workers on artificial intelligence.
Download or read book Essays on Paradoxes written by Terry Horgan and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2017 with total page 337 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume brings together many of Terence Horgan's essays on paradoxes: Newcomb's problem, the Monty Hall problem, the two-envelope paradox, the sorites paradox, and the Sleeping Beauty problem. Newcomb's problem arises because the ordinary concept of practical rationality constitutively includes normative standards that can sometimes come into direct conflict with one another. The Monty Hall problem reveals that sometimes the higher-order fact of one's having reliably received pertinent new first-order information constitutes stronger pertinent new information than does the new first-order information itself. The two-envelope paradox reveals that epistemic-probability contexts are weakly hyper-intensional; that therefore, non-zero epistemic probabilities sometimes accrue to epistemic possibilities that are not metaphysical possibilities; that therefore, the available acts in a given decision problem sometimes can simultaneously possess several different kinds of non-standard expected utility that rank the acts incompatibly. The sorites paradox reveals that a certain kind of logical incoherence is inherent to vagueness, and that therefore, ontological vagueness is impossible. The Sleeping Beauty problem reveals that some questions of probability are properly answered using a generalized variant of standard conditionalization that is applicable to essentially indexical self-locational possibilities, and deploys "preliminary" probabilities of such possibilities that are not prior probabilities. The volume also includes three new essays: one on Newcomb's problem, one on the Sleeping Beauty problem, and an essay on epistemic probability that articulates and motivates a number of novel claims about epistemic probability that Horgan has come to espouse in the course of his writings on paradoxes. A common theme unifying these essays is that philosophically interesting paradoxes typically resist either easy solutions or solutions that are formally/mathematically highly technical. Another unifying theme is that such paradoxes often have deep-sometimes disturbing-philosophical morals.
Download or read book The Enterprise of Knowledge written by Isaac Levi and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 1980 with total page 484 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This major work challenges some widely held positions in epistemology - those of Peirce and Popper on the one hand and those of Quine and Kuhn on the other. The author contends that epistemological infallibilism is compatible with his view that knowledge evolves through a process of updating and correcting. Knowledge is regarded as a resource for decision and inquiry, a standard for serious possibility.
Download or read book Chance and Necessity written by Jacques Monod and published by . This book was released on 1997 with total page 198 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Change and necessity is a statement of Darwinian natural selection as a process driven by chance necessity, devoid of purpose or intent.
Download or read book Chance and Temporal Asymmetry written by Alastair Wilson and published by Oxford University Press, USA. This book was released on 2014 with total page 307 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume presents twelve original essays on the metaphysics of science, with particular focus on the physics of chance and time. Experts in the field subject familiar approaches to searching critiques, and make bold new proposals in a number of key areas. Together, they set the agenda for future work on the subject.
Download or read book The Logic Of Chance written by John Venn and published by Legare Street Press. This book was released on 2022-10-27 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This work has been selected by scholars as being culturally important, and is part of the knowledge base of civilization as we know it. This work is in the "public domain in the United States of America, and possibly other nations. Within the United States, you may freely copy and distribute this work, as no entity (individual or corporate) has a copyright on the body of the work. Scholars believe, and we concur, that this work is important enough to be preserved, reproduced, and made generally available to the public. We appreciate your support of the preservation process, and thank you for being an important part of keeping this knowledge alive and relevant.
Download or read book Introduction to Probability written by David F. Anderson and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2017-11-02 with total page 447 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This classroom-tested textbook is an introduction to probability theory, with the right balance between mathematical precision, probabilistic intuition, and concrete applications. Introduction to Probability covers the material precisely, while avoiding excessive technical details. After introducing the basic vocabulary of randomness, including events, probabilities, and random variables, the text offers the reader a first glimpse of the major theorems of the subject: the law of large numbers and the central limit theorem. The important probability distributions are introduced organically as they arise from applications. The discrete and continuous sides of probability are treated together to emphasize their similarities. Intended for students with a calculus background, the text teaches not only the nuts and bolts of probability theory and how to solve specific problems, but also why the methods of solution work.
Download or read book An Historical Essay written by John Webb and published by . This book was released on 1669 with total page 236 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Chance Love and Logic written by Charles Sanders Peirce and published by New York : G. Braziller, 1956 [c1923]. This book was released on 1923 with total page 364 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Good Thinking written by Irving J. Good and published by Courier Corporation. This book was released on 2009-11-18 with total page 353 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: These sparkling essays by a gifted thinker offer philosophical views on the roots of statistical interference. A pioneer in the early development of computing, Irving J. Good made fundamental contributions to the theory of Bayesian inference and was a key member of the team that broke the German Enigma code during World War II. Good maintains that a grasp of probability is essential to answering both practical and philosophical questions. This compilation of his most accessible works concentrates on philosophical rather than mathematical subjects, ranging from rational decisions, randomness, and the nature of probability to operational research, artificial intelligence, cognitive psychology, and chess. These twenty-three self-contained articles represent the author's work in a variety of fields but are unified by a consistently rational approach. Five closely related sections explore Bayesian rationality; probability; corroboration, hypothesis testing, and simplicity; information and surprise; and causality and explanation. A comprehensive index, abundant references, and a bibliography refer readers to classic and modern literature. Good's thought-provoking observations and memorable examples provide scientists, mathematicians, and historians of science with a coherent view of probability and its applications.
Download or read book The Great Mental Models Volume 1 written by Shane Parrish and published by Penguin. This book was released on 2024-10-15 with total page 209 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Discover the essential thinking tools you’ve been missing with The Great Mental Models series by Shane Parrish, New York Times bestselling author and the mind behind the acclaimed Farnam Street blog and “The Knowledge Project” podcast. This first book in the series is your guide to learning the crucial thinking tools nobody ever taught you. Time and time again, great thinkers such as Charlie Munger and Warren Buffett have credited their success to mental models–representations of how something works that can scale onto other fields. Mastering a small number of mental models enables you to rapidly grasp new information, identify patterns others miss, and avoid the common mistakes that hold people back. The Great Mental Models: Volume 1, General Thinking Concepts shows you how making a few tiny changes in the way you think can deliver big results. Drawing on examples from history, business, art, and science, this book details nine of the most versatile, all-purpose mental models you can use right away to improve your decision making and productivity. This book will teach you how to: Avoid blind spots when looking at problems. Find non-obvious solutions. Anticipate and achieve desired outcomes. Play to your strengths, avoid your weaknesses, … and more. The Great Mental Models series demystifies once elusive concepts and illuminates rich knowledge that traditional education overlooks. This series is the most comprehensive and accessible guide on using mental models to better understand our world, solve problems, and gain an advantage.
Download or read book An Essay on Probabilities and Their Application to Life Contingencies and Insurance Offices written by Augustus De Morgan and published by . This book was released on 1838 with total page 380 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Introduction to Probability written by Dimitri Bertsekas and published by Athena Scientific. This book was released on 2008-07-01 with total page 544 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An intuitive, yet precise introduction to probability theory, stochastic processes, statistical inference, and probabilistic models used in science, engineering, economics, and related fields. This is the currently used textbook for an introductory probability course at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, attended by a large number of undergraduate and graduate students, and for a leading online class on the subject. The book covers the fundamentals of probability theory (probabilistic models, discrete and continuous random variables, multiple random variables, and limit theorems), which are typically part of a first course on the subject. It also contains a number of more advanced topics, including transforms, sums of random variables, a fairly detailed introduction to Bernoulli, Poisson, and Markov processes, Bayesian inference, and an introduction to classical statistics. The book strikes a balance between simplicity in exposition and sophistication in analytical reasoning. Some of the more mathematically rigorous analysis is explained intuitively in the main text, and then developed in detail (at the level of advanced calculus) in the numerous solved theoretical problems.
