Download or read book An Empirical Assessment of Alternative Models of Risky Decision Making written by Pamela K. Lattimore and published by . This book was released on 1988 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this paper, we assess the degree to which four of the most commonly used models of risky decision making can explain the choices individuals make when faced with risky prospects. To make this assessment, we use experimental evidence for two random samples of young adults. Using a robust, nonlinear least squares procedure, we estimate a model that is general enough to approximate Kahnenman and Tversky's prospect theory and that for certain parametric values will yield the expected utility model, a subjective expected utility model and a probability-transform model. We find that the four models considered explain the decision-making behavior of the majority of our subjects. Surprisingly, we find that the choice behavior of the largest number of subjects is consistent with a probability-transform model. Such models have only been developed recently and have not been used in applied settings. We find least support for the expected utility model -- the most widely used model of risky decision making.
Download or read book Experiments in Environmental Economics written by Jason F. Shogren and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2018-04-27 with total page 557 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This title was first published in 2003.Over the decades, experiential methods have become an established research tool in environmental economics. Economists working in this area have realised that experimental methods from economics and other disciplines such as psychology and decision theory can be applied to gain insight into the behavioral underpinnings of environmental policy. Economic experiments, in the lab and field, are an attractive tool to address the incentive and contextual questions that arise in environmental policy. Experiments have been and continue to be designed to capture the key elements of market and non-market choices to test theory, for pattern recognition, to testbed new institutions, and to value public goods, including environmental protection. This volume collects the most significant papers in the literature that identify the underpinnings of experimental approaches are complemented by works that specifically address the use of experimental economics to identify choice under risk, conflict, cooperation, environmental policy instruments, and environmental valuation
Download or read book NBER Reporter written by National Bureau of Economic Research and published by . This book was released on 1988 with total page 480 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Risk Analysis in Theory and Practice written by Jean-Paul Chavas and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2004-06-04 with total page 258 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The objective of Risk Analysis in Theory and Practice is to present this analytical framework and to illustrate how it can be used in the investigation of economic decisions under risk. In a sense, the economics of risk is a difficult subject: it involves understanding human decisions in the absence of perfect information. How do we make decisions when we do not know some of events affecting us? The complexities of our uncertain world and of how humans obtain and process information make this difficult. In spite of these difficulties, much progress has been made. First, probability theory is the corner stone of risk assessment. This allows us to measure risk in a fashion that can be communicated among decision makers or researchers. Second, risk preferences are now better understood. This provides useful insights into the economic rationality of decision making under uncertainty. Third, over the last decades, good insights have been developed about the value of information. This helps better understand the role of information in human decision making and this book provides a systematic treatment of these issues in the context of both private and public decisions under uncertainty. Balanced treatment of conceptual models and applied analysis Considers both private and public decisions under uncertainty Website presents application exercises in Excel
Download or read book Risk and Decision Making written by and published by . This book was released on 2000 with total page 80 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Prospect Theory written by Daniel Kahneman and published by . This book was released on 1979 with total page 27 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Encyclopedia of Quantitative Risk Analysis and Assessment written by and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2008-09-02 with total page 2163 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Leading the way in this field, the Encyclopedia of Quantitative Risk Analysis and Assessment is the first publication to offer a modern, comprehensive and in-depth resource to the huge variety of disciplines involved. A truly international work, its coverage ranges across risk issues pertinent to life scientists, engineers, policy makers, healthcare professionals, the finance industry, the military and practising statisticians. Drawing on the expertise of world-renowned authors and editors in this field this title provides up-to-date material on drug safety, investment theory, public policy applications, transportation safety, public perception of risk, epidemiological risk, national defence and security, critical infrastructure, and program management. This major publication is easily accessible for all those involved in the field of risk assessment and analysis. For ease-of-use it is available in print and online.
Download or read book A Comprehensive Assessment of the Role of Risk in U S Agriculture written by Richard E. Just and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-11-11 with total page 580 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: After all the research on agricultural risk to date, the treatment of risk in agricultural research is far from harmonious. Many competing risk models have been proposed. Some new methodologies are largely untested. Some of the leading empirical methodologies in agricultural economic research are poorly suited for problems with aggregate data where risk averse behavior is less likely to be important. This book is intended to (i) define the current state of the literature on agricultural risk research, (ii) provide a critical evaluation of economic risk research on agriculture to date and (iii) set a research agenda that will meet future needs and prospects. This type of research promises to become of increasing importance because agricultural policy in the United States and elsewhere has decidedly shifted from explicit income support objectives to risk-related motivations of helping farmers deal with risk. Beginning with the 1996 Farm Bill, the primary set of policy instruments from U.S. agriculture has shifted from target prices and set aside acreage to agricultural crop insurance. Because this book is intended to have specific implications for U.S. agricultural policy, it has a decidedly domestic scope, but clearly many of the issues have application abroad. For each of the papers and topics included in this volume, individuals have been selected to give the strongest and broadest possible treatment of each facet of the problem. The result is this comprehensive reference book on the economics of agricultural risk.
Download or read book Comparative Risk Assessment and Environmental Decision Making written by Igor Linkov and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2006-03-02 with total page 431 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Decision making in environmental projects is typically a complex and confusing process characterized by trade-offs between socio-political, environmental, and economic impacts. Comparative Risk Assessment (CRA) is a methodology applied to facilitate decision making when various activities compete for limited resources. CRA has become an increasingly accepted research tool and has helped to characterize environmental profiles and priorities on the regional and national level. CRA may be considered as part of the more general but as yet quite academic field of multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA). Considerable research in the area of MCDA has made available methods for applying scientific decision theoretical approaches to multi-criteria problems, but its applications, especially in environmental areas, are still limited. The papers show that the use of comparative risk assessment can provide the scientific basis for environmentally sound and cost-efficient policies, strategies, and solutions to our environmental challenges.
Download or read book Risk Taking written by Zur Shapira and published by Russell Sage Foundation. This book was released on 1995-01-25 with total page 189 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Classical economic theory assumes that people in risk situations follow a course of action based on a rational, consistent assessment of likely outcomes. But as Zur Shapira demonstrates in Risk Taking, corporate managers consistently stray from the prescribed path into far more subjective territory. Risk Taking offers a critical assessment of the relationship between theory and action in managerial decision making. Shapira offers a definitive account of the classical conception of risky decision making, which derives behavioral prescriptions from a calculation of both the value and the likelihood of possible outcomes. He then demonstrates how theories in this vein have been historically at odds with empirical observations. Risk Taking reports the results of an extensive survey of seven hundred managers that probed their attitudes and beliefs about risk and examined how they had actually made decisions in the face of uncertainty. The picture that emerges is of a dynamic, flexible process in which each manager's personal expertise and perceptions play profound roles. Managerial strategies are continually modified to suit changing circumstances. Rather than formulating probability estimates, executives create potential scenarios based not only on the possible outcomes but also on the many arbitrary factors inherent in their own situations. As Shapira notes, risk taking propensities vary among managers, and the need to maintain control and avoid particularly dangerous results exercises a powerful influence. Shapira also examines the impact of organizational structure, long-term management objectives, and incentives on decision making. With perceptive observations of the cognitive, emotional, and organizational dimensions of corporate decision making, Risk Taking propels the study of managerial risk behavior into new directions. This volume signals the way toward improving managerial decision making by revealing the need for more inclusive choice models that augment classical theory with vital behavioral observations.
Download or read book Dam Failure Mechanisms and Risk Assessment written by Limin Zhang and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2016-06-13 with total page 450 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book integrates the physical processes of dam breaching and the mathematical aspects of risk assessment in a concise manner • The first book that introduces the causes, processes and consequences of dam failures • Integrates the physical processes of dam breaching and the mathematical aspects of risk assessment in a concise manner • Emphasizes integrating theory and practice to better demonstrate the application of risk assessment and decision methodologies to real cases • Intends to formulate dam-breaching emergency management steps in a scientific structure
Download or read book Gastrointestinal Operations and Technical Variations written by Michael Korenkov and published by Springer. This book was released on 2017-10-27 with total page 417 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this book, leading experts provide step-by-step, illustrated descriptions of their standard surgical techniques (open and laparoscopic) for diverse gastrointestinal indications and their preferred modifications when confronted by challenging circumstances associated with an increased risk of intra- or postoperative complications. The provision of several points of view for each surgical indication ensures that approaches from the conservative to the more radical are conveyed. It is clearly explained in which situations use of the described technical variations may be indicated, and practical tips are provided on the avoidance of complications. In addition, important medicolegal issues are discussed and guidance is offered on risk assessment and decision analysis within the surgical setting. The book will be an invaluable aid to decision making and practice for every gastrointestinal surgeon.
Download or read book Operational Risk Management written by Giampiero Beroggi and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 220 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Advanced communications and information technologies provide the basis for operational risk management. In order to support managers in real-time risk assessment and decision-making, the advanced technologies must be complemented by an appropriate reasoning logic. This book presents such a reasoning logic for operational risk management. Chapter 1 discusses the need for operational risk management and the feasibility of its use based upon advances in sensing, mobile communications, and satellite positioning technologies. Chapter II presents a reasoning logic for operational risk management that capitalizes upon these developments. Chapter III illustrates the integration of the reasoning logic in hypermedia, multimedia, and virtual reality systems, coupled with the capabilities provided by the Internet. Chapters IV-VI illustrate the realism of operational risk management for hazardous material transportation, emergency response, air raid command, and emergency response at a nuclear power generation facility. The book closes with an experimental assessment of the logic and associated decision aids in Chapter VII. Audience: Researchers, who will find the most recent advances in operational risk management with experimental assessments. Practitioners, who are provided with a detailed description of operational risk management and the latest advances in information and communications technologies to implement this new approach for managing risks in operational settings, such as transportation of hazardous materials and emergency response. Students, who will learn the basic concepts in theory and practice of building models for decision and risk analysis, and embedding them into commercial software as decision support systems.
Download or read book The Routledge Companion to Consumer Behavior Analysis written by Gordon R. Foxall and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2015-08-20 with total page 470 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Routledge Companion to Consumer Behavior Analysis provides a unique and eclectic combination of behavioral, cognitive and environmental perspectives to illuminate the real-world complexities of consumer choice in a marketing-oriented economy. Edited by a leading authority in the field, the contributing authors have created a unique anthology for understanding consumer preference by bringing together the very latest research and thinking in consumer behavior analysis. This comprehensive and innovative volume ranges over a broad multi-disciplinary perspective from economic psychology, behavioral psychology and experimental economics, but its chief focus is on the critical evaluation of consumer choice in the natural settings of affluent, marketing-oriented economies. By focussing on human economic and social choices, which involve social exchange, it explores and reveals the enormous potential of consumer behavior analysis to illuminate the role of modern marketing-oriented business organizations in shaping and responding to consumer choice. This will be of particular interest to academics, researchers and advanced students in marketing, consumer behavior, behavior analysis, social psychology, behavioral economics and behavioral psychology.
Download or read book Statistical and Econometric Methods for Transportation Data Analysis written by Simon Washington and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2020-01-30 with total page 470 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The book's website (with databases and other support materials) can be accessed here. Praise for the Second Edition: The second edition introduces an especially broad set of statistical methods ... As a lecturer in both transportation and marketing research, I find this book an excellent textbook for advanced undergraduate, Master’s and Ph.D. students, covering topics from simple descriptive statistics to complex Bayesian models. ... It is one of the few books that cover an extensive set of statistical methods needed for data analysis in transportation. The book offers a wealth of examples from the transportation field. —The American Statistician Statistical and Econometric Methods for Transportation Data Analysis, Third Edition offers an expansion over the first and second editions in response to the recent methodological advancements in the fields of econometrics and statistics and to provide an increasing range of examples and corresponding data sets. It describes and illustrates some of the statistical and econometric tools commonly used in transportation data analysis. It provides a wide breadth of examples and case studies, covering applications in various aspects of transportation planning, engineering, safety, and economics. Ample analytical rigor is provided in each chapter so that fundamental concepts and principles are clear and numerous references are provided for those seeking additional technical details and applications. New to the Third Edition Updated references and improved examples throughout. New sections on random parameters linear regression and ordered probability models including the hierarchical ordered probit model. A new section on random parameters models with heterogeneity in the means and variances of parameter estimates. Multiple new sections on correlated random parameters and correlated grouped random parameters in probit, logit and hazard-based models. A new section discussing the practical aspects of random parameters model estimation. A new chapter on Latent Class Models. A new chapter on Bivariate and Multivariate Dependent Variable Models. Statistical and Econometric Methods for Transportation Data Analysis, Third Edition can serve as a textbook for advanced undergraduate, Masters, and Ph.D. students in transportation-related disciplines including engineering, economics, urban and regional planning, and sociology. The book also serves as a technical reference for researchers and practitioners wishing to examine and understand a broad range of statistical and econometric tools required to study transportation problems.
Download or read book Risk Assessment and Decision Making Using Test Results written by V. Chankong and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 214 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The difficulties associated with making risk assessments on the basis of experimental results are familiar to practitioners in many fields engineering, epidemiology, chemistry, etc. These difficulties are particularly common in problems that have dynamic and stochastic characteristics driven by multiple purposes and goals, with complex interconnections and inter dependencies. Acquiring an appropriate data base, processing and analyzing model results, and transmitting these results at an appropriate technical, social, political, and institutional level are additional difficulties that must be addressed. This book is grounded on the premise that risks are best assessed on the basis of experimental results and sound mathematical analyses, coupled with the knowledge of experts. The carcinogenicity prediction and battery selection (ePBS) approach described herein provides a systematic mechan ism-a synthesis of systems and statistical and decision analyses-to aid researchers and decision makers in the critical field of carcinogenicity prediction in selecting an appropriate battery of tests to use and in translating experimental results into information that can be used as an aid to decision making.
Download or read book Probabilistic Risk Assessment written by and published by . This book was released on 2000 with total page 88 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Contains references to documents in the NASA Scientific and Technical (STI) Database.
