Download or read book An Early detection Index of Fiscal Stress for EU Countries written by Katia Berti and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page 22 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "The financial and economic crisis has generated renewed interest, especially among policy-makers, in early-warning systems that could help identifying fiscal and macro-financial vulnerabilities potentially triggering risks. Against this background, this paper presents an early-warning index of fiscal stress, incorporating fiscal, financial and competitiveness variables, some of which are common to the scoreboard used in the EU for the surveillance of macroeconomic imbalances. Thresholds of fiscal risk are determined, based on the non-parametric signals approach, for the overall index, the two sub-indexes grouping fiscal and financial-competitiveness variables and each individual variable used in the analysis. Values of the overall index beyond its critical threshold pinpoint to potential risks of fiscal stress in the short run, while the analysis at individual variable level allows identifying possible sources of vulnerabilities, which is key to design appropriate risk-mitigating policies. The results obtained highlight the importance of incorporating financial-competitiveness variables in an early-warning system for fiscal stress, as such variables appear to be better "leading indicators" of fiscal stress than fiscal variables are. The results also speak in favour of using an early-warning composite indicator of fiscal stress, rather than looking at the individual variables taken in isolation. Results obtained by applying the proposed methodology to EU countries are presented in the last part of the paper."--Document home page.
Download or read book Leading Indicators of Fiscal Distress written by Martin Bruns and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-02-15 with total page 37 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Early warning systems (EWS) are widely used for assessing countries’ vulnerability to fiscal distress. Most EWS employ a specific set of only fiscal leading indicators predetermined by the researchers, which casts doubt on their robustness. We revisit this issue by using the Extreme Bound Analysis, which allows identifying robust leading indicators of fiscal distress from a large set. Consistent with the theoretical predictions of latest generation crisis models, we find that both fiscal (e.g., fiscal balance, foreign exchange debt) and non-fiscal leading indicators (e.g., output, FX reserves, current account balance, and openness) are robust. In addition, we find that a fiscal vulnerability indicator based on fiscal and non-fiscal leading indicators offers a 29% gain in predictive power compared to a traditional one based on fiscal leading indicators only. It also has good predictive power out of sample, with 78 percent of crises predicted correctly and only 34 percent false alarms issued for the period 2008–15. This suggests that both fiscal and non-fiscal leading indicators should be taken into account when assessing country’s vulnerability to fiscal distress.
Download or read book Predicting Fiscal Crises written by Ms.Svetlana Cerovic and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-08-03 with total page 42 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper identifies leading indicators of fiscal crises based on a large sample of countries at different stages of development over 1970-2015. Our results are robust to different methodologies and sample periods. Previous literature on early warning sistems (EWS) for fiscal crises is scarce and based on small samples of advanced and emerging markets, raising doubts about the robustness of the results. Using a larger sample, our analysis shows that both nonfiscal (external and internal imbalances) and fiscal variables help predict crises among advanced and emerging economies. Our models performed well in out-of-sample forecasting and in predicting the most recent crises, a weakness of EWS in general. We also build EWS for low income countries, which had been overlooked in the literature.
Download or read book The Palgrave Handbook of Indicators in Global Governance written by Debora Valentina Malito and published by Springer. This book was released on 2017-11-27 with total page 542 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume brings together both academic and institutional perspectives to examine the production, use and contestation of indicators in global governance. It provides a unique and comprehensive guide to the latest research in the study of indicators and their use in global governance and policy making. The editors provide a guide to the recent vast body of literature and practice on measuring governance and measurement as governance at the global level, and present a state-of-the-art analysis of social science research on indicators at both the transnational and the global level. The Handbook brings together scholars from a variety of disciplines and perspectives, as well as policy-makers from international organisations and non-government organisations working in the field. This volume will be a valuable resource for students and academics in the fields of public policy, administration and management, international relations, political science, law, and globalisation, as well as policy makers and practitioners.
Download or read book When Do We Repair the Roof Insights from Responses to Fiscal Crisis Early Warning Signals written by Mr.Jiro Honda and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-04-06 with total page 37 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Should policymakers wait for fiscal crisis early warning signals before repairing the roof? We give an answer to this question by investigating the interlinkages between early warning signals for fiscal crisis, policy responses, and policy outcomes, using a broad panel of 119 countries. We find that fiscal adjsutment is a good remedy for countries that act proactively, reducing their likelihood of facing fiscal crisis by up to about 60 percent. For those waiting for wake-up calls from early-detection tools, however, fiscal adjustment may not fully prevent fiscal crisis occurrence, with the chance of fiscal crisis prevention not only smaller (about 30 percent) but also statistically not significant. These findings highlight the prominence of repairing the roof when the sun is shining, particularly in countries with weak institutions.
Download or read book Predicting Fiscal Crises A Machine Learning Approach written by Klaus-Peter Hellwig and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-05-27 with total page 66 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this paper I assess the ability of econometric and machine learning techniques to predict fiscal crises out of sample. I show that the econometric approaches used in many policy applications cannot outperform a simple heuristic rule of thumb. Machine learning techniques (elastic net, random forest, gradient boosted trees) deliver significant improvements in accuracy. Performance of machine learning techniques improves further, particularly for developing countries, when I expand the set of potential predictors and make use of algorithmic selection techniques instead of relying on a small set of variables deemed important by the literature. There is considerable agreement across learning algorithms in the set of selected predictors: Results confirm the importance of external sector stock and flow variables found in the literature but also point to demographics and the quality of governance as important predictors of fiscal crises. Fiscal variables appear to have less predictive value, and public debt matters only to the extent that it is owed to external creditors.
Download or read book Public Sector Economics and the Need for Reforms written by Apostolis Philippopoulos and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2016-05-20 with total page 389 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Theoretically and empirically informed studies on the role and efficiency of the public sector, public wage and employment policy, privatization, tax policy, and fiscal sustainability. The public sector has grown substantially in the last fifty years. In the euro area, for example, total government expenditures have been around fifty percent of GDP since the early 2000s, resulting in a growing tax burden or high public debt or both. At the same time, government had intervened in all aspects of economic life, from the provision of public goods and services to product and labor market regulation. Research shows that the effect of government size on economic performance is positive in countries where the public sector is efficient but negative in countries where it is inefficient. In this book, experts from academe and central banking discuss reforms that would make the public sector more efficient and/or more equitable. After a rich review of the public sector reform policy agenda, with particular attention to the role of the public sector and how to improve the provision of public goods and services, the contributors offer theoretically and empirically informed perspectives on some specific policy topics. These include public wage and employment policy, the role of international institutions such as the World Bank in promoting public sector reforms, the optimal mix of tax policy, the measurement of public sector efficiency, and the study of fiscal sustainability. The contributors relate these topics to such deeper issues as individual incentives as well as to policy debates over privatization, and austerity. Contributors Konstantinos Angelopoulos, Stylianos Asimakopoulos, Danilo Ballanti, Roberto A. De Santis, Roberto Dispotico, George Economides, Pedro Gomes, Gabriella Legrenzi, James Malley, Costas Milas, Ilaria Petrarca, Apostolis Philippopoulos, Francesco Porcelli, Roberto Ricciuti, Lodewijk Smets, Peter Birch Sørensen, Petros Varthalitis, Francesco Vidoli
Download or read book Dynamic Modeling Empirical Macroeconomics and Finance written by Lucas Bernard and published by Springer. This book was released on 2016-10-03 with total page 332 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This edited volume, with contributions by area experts, offers discussions on a range of evolving topics in economics and social development. At center are important issues central to sustainable development, economic growth, technological change, the economics of climate change, commodity markets, long wave theory, non-linear dynamic models, and boom-bust cycles. This is an excellent reference for academic and professional economists interested in emerging areas of empirical macroeconomics and finance. For policy makers and curious readers alike, it is also an outstanding introduction to the economic thinking of those who seek a holistic and all-compassing approach in economic theory and policy. Looking into new data and methodology, this book offers fresh approaches in a post-crisis environment. Set in a profound understanding of the diverse currents within the many traditions of economic thought, this book pushes the established frontiers of economic thinking. It is dedicated to a leading scholar in the areas covered in this book, Willi Semmler.
Download or read book Policy Learning and the Euro written by Jonathan C. Kamkhaji and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2022-09-04 with total page 195 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book analyzes the EU’s responses to the sovereign debt crisis that hit the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) in 2010. After reviewing the events that led to the crisis, it examines two case studies. The first assesses the short-term policy changes by drawing on a new mechanism, contingent learning. The second case study revolves around the long-term EMU reforms passed during the period 2010-2013. More specifically, it assesses these responses in relation to the institutional scientific publications of the European Central Bank and the DG ECFIN of the Commission. By analyzing both the short and long-term responses to the sovereign debt crisis, the book elucidates how policy learning can be an effective engine for deeper European integration. It will be of interest to scholars and students of EU integration, the EMU, policy learning, and supranational bureaucracies.
Download or read book Public Spending and the Role of the State written by Ludger Schuknecht and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2020-11-12 with total page 305 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Up-to-date, holistic and comprehensive discussion of public expenditure, its history, value for money, risks and remedies.
Download or read book European Economy written by and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page 358 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Economic Crisis in Europe written by Paul van den Noord and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The European economy is emerging from its deepest recession since the 1930s. This volume, which brings together economic analysis from the European Commission services, explains how swift policy response avoided a financial meltdown. Europe also needs an improved co-ordinated crisis-management framework to help it respond to any similar situations that may arise in the future. Economic Crisis in Europe is a much-anticipated volume which shows that the beginnings of such a crisis-management framework are emerging, building on existing institutions and legislation and complemented by new initiatives.
Download or read book Debt Is Not Free written by Ms.Marialuz Moreno Badia and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2020-01-03 with total page 68 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: With public debt soaring across the world, a growing concern is whether current debt levels are a harbinger of fiscal crises, thereby restricting the policy space in a downturn. The empirical evidence to date is however inconclusive, and the true cost of debt may be overstated if interest rates remain low. To shed light into this debate, this paper re-examines the importance of public debt as a leading indicator of fiscal crises using machine learning techniques to account for complex interactions previously ignored in the literature. We find that public debt is the most important predictor of crises, showing strong non-linearities. Moreover, beyond certain debt levels, the likelihood of crises increases sharply regardless of the interest-growth differential. Our analysis also reveals that the interactions of public debt with inflation and external imbalances can be as important as debt levels. These results, while not necessarily implying causality, show governments should be wary of high public debt even when borrowing costs seem low.
Download or read book Fiscal Sustainability and Competitiveness in Europe and Asia written by R. Rajan and published by Springer. This book was released on 2014-07-25 with total page 240 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book examines key issues and policy concerns relating to fiscal sustainability and competitiveness in European and Asian economies. In addition to estimating the extent of fiscal capacity or lack thereof for these economies, the authors supplement the empirical analysis with country case studies.
Download or read book Global Trends 2040 written by National Intelligence Council and published by Cosimo Reports. This book was released on 2021-03 with total page 158 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic marks the most significant, singular global disruption since World War II, with health, economic, political, and security implications that will ripple for years to come." -Global Trends 2040 (2021) Global Trends 2040-A More Contested World (2021), released by the US National Intelligence Council, is the latest report in its series of reports starting in 1997 about megatrends and the world's future. This report, strongly influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic, paints a bleak picture of the future and describes a contested, fragmented and turbulent world. It specifically discusses the four main trends that will shape tomorrow's world: - Demographics-by 2040, 1.4 billion people will be added mostly in Africa and South Asia. - Economics-increased government debt and concentrated economic power will escalate problems for the poor and middleclass. - Climate-a hotter world will increase water, food, and health insecurity. - Technology-the emergence of new technologies could both solve and cause problems for human life. Students of trends, policymakers, entrepreneurs, academics, journalists and anyone eager for a glimpse into the next decades, will find this report, with colored graphs, essential reading.
Download or read book The Oxford Handbook of Banking written by Allen N. Berger and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2010 with total page 1033 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This handbook provides an overview and analysis of state-of-the-art research in banking written by researchers in the field. It includes abstract theory, empirical analysis, and practitioner and policy-related material.
Download or read book Systemic Risk in the Financial Sector written by Douglas W. Arner and published by McGill-Queen's Press - MQUP. This book was released on 2019-10-02 with total page 271 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In late 2008, the world's financial system was teetering on the brink of systemic collapse. While the impacts of the global financial crisis would be felt immediately, at every level of the economy, it would also send years-long aftershocks through investment, banking and regulatory circles worldwide. More than a decade after the worst year of the global financial crisis, what has been learned from its harsh lessons? Are governments and regulators more prepared for another financial system failure that would significantly affect the real economy? What may be the potential triggers for such a collapse to occur in the future? Systemic Risk in the Financial Sector: Ten Years after the Great Crash draws on some of the world's leading experts on financial stability and regulation to examine and critique the progress made since 2008 in addressing systemic risk. The book covers topics such as central banks and macroprudential policies; fintech; regulators' perspectives from the United States and the European Union; the logistical and incentive challenges that impede standardization and collection; clearing houses and systemic risk; optimal resolution and bail-in tools; and bank leverage, welfare and regulation. Drawing on experts across disciplines — including Howell Jackson, John Geanakoplos, Charles Goodhart, Anat Admati, Roberta Romano and Martin Hellwig — Systemic Risk in the Financial Sector is the definitive guide to understanding the global financial crisis, the safeguards being put into place to try to avoid similar crises in the future, and the limitations of those safeguards.
