Download or read book An Arbitrage free Three factor Term Structure Model and the Recent Behavior of Long term Yields and Distant horizon Forward Rates written by Don H. Kim and published by . This book was released on 2005 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "This paper reviews a simple three-factor arbitrage-free term structure model estimated by Federal Reserve Board staff and reports results obtained from fitting this model to U.S. Treasury yields since 1990. The model ascribes a large portion of the decline in long-term yields and distant-horizon forward rates since the middle of 2004 to a fall in term premiums. A variant of the model that incorporates inflation data indicates that about two-thirds of the decline in nominal term premiums owes to a fall in real term premiums, but estimated compensation for inflation risk has diminished as well.

Download or read book An Arbitrage free Three factor Term Structure Model and the Recent Behavior of Long term Yields and Distant horizon Forward Rates written by Don H. Kim and published by . This book was released on 2005 with total page 48 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "This paper reviews a simple three-factor arbitrage-free term structure model estimated by Federal Reserve Board staff and reports results obtained from fitting this model to U.S. Treasury yields since 1990. The model ascribes a large portion of the decline in long-term yields and distant-horizon forward rates since the middle of 2004 to a fall in term premiums. A variant of the model that incorporates inflation data indicates that about two-thirds of the decline in nominal term premiums owes to a fall in real term premiums, but estimated compensation for inflation risk has diminished as well.

Download or read book Global Financial Stability Report April 2014 written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-04-09 with total page 184 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The April 2014 Global Financial Stability Report finds that, despite much progress, the global financial system remains in a transitional period with stability conditions far from normal. Advanced and emerging market economies alike need to make a successful shift from liquidity- to growth-driven markets, which will require a number of elements, including a normalization of U.S. monetary policy; financial rebalancing in emerging markets; further progress in the euro area integration; and continued implementation of “Abenomics” in Japan. This report also examines how changes in the investor base and financial deepening affect emerging market economies as well as looks at the issue of banks considered too important to fail, providing new estimates of the implicit funding subsidy these banks receive.

Download or read book Developments in Macro Finance Yield Curve Modelling written by Jagjit S. Chadha and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2014-02-06 with total page 571 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: State-of-the-art research from academics and policymakers on the role of and challenges to monetary policy during the ongoing financial crisis.

Download or read book The Yield Curve and Financial Risk Premia written by Felix Geiger and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2011-08-17 with total page 320 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The determinants of yield curve dynamics have been thoroughly discussed in finance models. However, little can be said about the macroeconomic factors behind the movements of short- and long-term interest rates as well as the risk compensation demanded by financial investors. By taking on a macro-finance perspective, the book’s approach explicitly acknowledges the close feedback between monetary policy, the macroeconomy and financial conditions. Both theoretical and empirical models are applied in order to get a profound understanding of the interlinkages between economic activity, the conduct of monetary policy and the underlying macroeconomic factors of bond price movements. Moreover, the book identifies a broad risk-taking channel of monetary transmission which allows a reassessment of the role of financial constraints; it enables policy makers to develop new guidelines for monetary policy and for financial supervision of how to cope with evolving financial imbalances.

Download or read book Global Financial Stability Report October 2015 written by International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-10-07 with total page 131 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The October 2015 Global Financial Stability Report finds that, despite an improvement in financial stability in advanced economies, risks continue to rotate toward emerging markets. The global financial outlook is clouded by a triad of policy challenges: emerging market vulnerabilities, legacy issues from the crisis in advanced economies, and weak systemic market liquidity. With more vulnerable balance sheets in emerging market companies and banks, firms in these countries are more susceptible to financial stress, economic downturn, and capital outflows. Recent market developments such as slumping commodity prices, China’s bursting equity bubble, and pressure on exchange rates underscore these challenges. The prospect of the U.S. Federal Reserve gradually raising interest rates points to an unprecedented adjustment in the global financial system as financial conditions and risk premiums “normalize” from historically low levels alongside rising policy rates and a modest cyclical recovery. The report also examines the factors that influence levels of liquidity in securities markets, as well as the implications of low liquidity. Currently, market liquidity is being supported by benign cyclical conditions. Although it is too early to assess the impact of recent regulatory changes on market liquidity, changes in market structure, such as larger holdings of corporate bonds by mutual funds, appear to have increased the fragility of liquidity. Finally, the report studies the growing level of corporate debt in emerging markets, which quadrupled between 2004 and 2014. The report finds that global drivers have played an increasing role in leverage growth, issuance, and spreads. Moreover, higher leverage has been associated with, on average, rising foreign currency exposures. It also finds that despite weaker balance sheets, firms have managed to issue bonds at better terms as a result of favorable financial conditions.

Download or read book The 13 Trillion Question written by David Wessel and published by Brookings Institution Press. This book was released on 2015-11-24 with total page 178 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The underexamined art and science of managing the federal government's huge debt. Everyone talks about the size of the U.S. national debt, now at $13 trillion and climbing, but few talk about how the U.S. Treasury does the borrowing—even though it is one of the world's largest borrowers. Everyone from bond traders to the home-buying public is affected by the Treasury's decisions about whether to borrow short or long term and what types of bonds to sell to investors. What is the best way for the Treasury to finance the government's huge debt? Harvard's Robin Greenwood, Sam Hanson, Joshua Rudolph, and Larry Summers argue that the Treasury could save taxpayers money and help the economy by borrowing more short term and less long term. They also argue that the Treasury and the Federal Reserve made a huge mistake in recent years by rowing in opposite directions: while the Fed was buying long-term bonds to push investors into other assets, the Treasury was doing the opposite—selling investors more long-term bonds. This book includes responses from a variety of public and private sector experts on how the Treasury does its borrowing, some of whom have criticized the way the Treasury has been managing its borrowing.

Download or read book Bond Pricing and Yield Curve Modeling written by Riccardo Rebonato and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2018-06-07 with total page 781 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this book, well-known expert Riccardo Rebonato provides the theoretical foundations (no-arbitrage, convexity, expectations, risk premia) needed for the affine modeling of the government bond markets. He presents and critically discusses the wealth of empirical findings that have appeared in the literature of the last decade, and introduces the 'structural' models that are used by central banks, institutional investors, sovereign wealth funds, academics, and advanced practitioners to model the yield curve, to answer policy questions, to estimate the magnitude of the risk premium, to gauge market expectations, and to assess investment opportunities. Rebonato weaves precise theory with up-to-date empirical evidence to build, with the minimum mathematical sophistication required for the task, a critical understanding of what drives the government bond market.

Download or read book Dynamic Factor Models written by Siem Jan Koopman and published by Emerald Group Publishing. This book was released on 2016-01-08 with total page 685 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume explores dynamic factor model specification, asymptotic and finite-sample behavior of parameter estimators, identification, frequentist and Bayesian estimation of the corresponding state space models, and applications.

Download or read book Portfolio Management in Practice Volume 2 written by CFA Institute and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2020-11-11 with total page 640 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Discover the latest essential resource on asset allocation for students and investment professionals. Part of the CFA Institute’s three-volume Portfolio Management in Practice series, Asset Allocation offers a deep, comprehensive ­treatment of the asset allocation process and the underlying theories and markets that support it. As the second volume in the series, Asset Allocation meets the needs of both graduate-level students focused on finance and industry professionals looking to become more dynamic investors. Filled with the insights and industry knowledge of the CFA Institute’s subject matter experts, Asset Allocation effectively blends theory and practice while helping the reader expand their skillsets in key areas of interest. This volume provides complete coverage on the following topics: Setting capital market expectations to support the asset allocation process Principles and processes in the asset allocation process, including handling ESG-integration and client-specific constraints Allocation beyond the traditional asset classes to include allocation to alternative investments The role of exchange-traded funds can play in implementing investment strategies An integrative case study in portfolio management involving a university endowment To further enhance your understanding of tools and techniques explored in Asset Allocation, don’t forget to pick up the Portfolio Management in Practice, Volume 2: Asset Allocation Workbook. The workbook is the perfect companion resource containing learning outcomes, summary overview sections, and challenging practice questions that align chapter-by-chapter with the main text.

Download or read book Expected Returns written by Antti Ilmanen and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2011-04-20 with total page 102 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This comprehensive reference delivers a toolkit for harvesting market rewards from a wide range of investments. Written by a world-renowned industry expert, the reference discusses how to forecast returns under different parameters. Expected returns of major asset classes, investment strategies, and the effects of underlying risk factors such as growth, inflation, liquidity, and different risk perspectives, are also explained. Judging expected returns requires balancing historical returns with both theoretical considerations and current market conditions. Expected Returns provides extensive empirical evidence, surveys of risk-based and behavioral theories, and practical insights.

Download or read book The Structural Foundations of Monetary Policy written by Michael D. Bordo and published by Hoover Press. This book was released on 2018-03-01 with total page 328 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In The Structural Foundations of Monetary Policy, Michael D. Bordo, John H. Cochrane, and Amit Seru bring together discussions and presentations from the Hoover Institution's annual monetary policy conference. The conference participants discuss long-run monetary issues facing the world economy, with an emphasis on deep, unresolved structural questions. They explore vital issues affecting the Federal Reserve, the United States' central bank. They voice concern over the Fed's independence, governance, and ability to withstand future shocks and analyze the effects of its monetary policies and growing balance sheet in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis. The authors ask a range of questions that get to the heart of twenty-first-century monetary policy. What should the role of the Fed be? Which policies and strategies will mitigate the risks of the next crisis and at the same time spur innovation and job creation? How can new technology make the Fed's payment system safer, faster, and more efficient? What does the emergence of crypto-currencies such as Bitcoin mean for competition and stability? How can the Fed defend itself against exploitation and politicization? Finally they propose reforms to ensure that the Fed will remain independent, stable, strong, and resilient in an unpredictable world.

Download or read book Portfolio Management in Practice Volume 1 written by CFA Institute and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2020-11-11 with total page 1328 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Portfolio Management in Practice, Volume 1: Investment Management delivers a comprehensive overview of investment management for students and industry professionals. As the first volume in the CFA Institute’s new Portfolio Management in Practice series, Investment Management offers professionals looking to enhance their skillsets and students building foundational knowledge an essential understanding of key investment management concepts. Designed to be an accessible resource for a wide range of learners, this volume explores the full portfolio management process. Inside, readers will find detailed coverage of: Forming capital market expectations Principles of the asset allocation process Determining investment strategies within each asset class Integrating considerations specific to high net worth individuals or institutions into chosen strategies And more To apply the concepts outlined in the Investment Management volume, explore the accompanying Portfolio Management in Practice, Volume 1: Investment Management Workbook. The perfect companion resource, this workbook aligns chapter-by-chapter with Investment Management for easy referencing so readers can draw connections between theoretical content and challenging practice problems. Featuring contributions from the CFA Institute’s subject matter experts, Portfolio Management in Practice, Volume 1: Investment Management distills the knowledge forward-thinking professionals will need to succeed in today’s fast-paced financial world.

Download or read book CFA Program Curriculum 2020 Level III Volumes 1 6 written by CFA Institute and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2019-08-08 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Apply CFA Program concepts and skills to real-world wealth and portfolio management for the 2019 exam The same official curricula that CFA Program candidates receive with program registration is now publicly available for purchase. CFA Program Curriculum 2020 Level III, Volumes 1-6 provides complete, authoritative guidance on synthesizing the entire CFA Program Candidate Body of Knowledge (CBOK) into professional practice for the 2020 exam. This book helps you bring together the skills and concepts from Levels I and II to formulate a detailed, professional response to a variety of real-world scenarios. Coverage spans all CFA Program topics and provides a rigorous treatment of portfolio management, all organized into individual study sessions with clearly defined Learning Outcome Statements. Visual aids clarify complex concepts, and practice questions allow you to test your understanding while reinforcing major content areas. Levels I and II equipped you with foundational investment tools and complex analysis skill; now, you'll learn how to effectively synthesize that knowledge to facilitate effective portfolio management and wealth planning. This study set helps you convert your understanding into a professional body of knowledge that will benefit your clients' financial futures. Master essential portfolio management and compliance topics Synthesize your understanding into professional guidance Reinforce your grasp of complex analysis and valuation Apply ethical and professional standards in the context of real-world cases CFA Institute promotes the highest standards of ethics, education, and professional excellence among investment professionals. The CFA Program curriculum guides you through the breadth of knowledge required to uphold these standards. The three levels of the program build on each other. Level I provides foundational knowledge and teaches the use of investment tools; Level II focuses on application of concepts and analysis, particularly in the valuation of assets; and Level III builds toward synthesis across topics with an emphasis on portfolio management.

Download or read book Forecasting Financial Time Series Using Model Averaging written by Francesco Ravazzolo and published by Rozenberg Publishers. This book was released on 2007 with total page 198 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Believing in a single model may be dangerous, and addressing model uncertainty by averaging different models in making forecasts may be very beneficial. In this thesis we focus on forecasting financial time series using model averaging schemes as a way to produce optimal forecasts. We derive and discuss in simulation exercises and empirical applications model averaging techniques that can reproduce stylized facts of financial time series, such as low predictability and time-varying patterns. We emphasize that model averaging is not a "magic" methodology which solves a priori problems of poorly forecasting. Averaging techniques have an essential requirement: individual models have to fit data. In the first section we provide a general outline of the thesis and its contributions to previ ous research. In Chapter 2 we focus on the use of time varying model weight combinations. In Chapter 3, we extend the analysis in the previous chapter to a new Bayesian averaging scheme that models structural instability carefully. In Chapter 4 we focus on forecasting the term structure of U.S. interest rates. In Chapter 5 we attempt to shed more light on forecasting performance of stochastic day-ahead price models. We examine six stochastic price models to forecast day-ahead prices of the two most active power exchanges in the world: the Nordic Power Exchange and the Amsterdam Power Exchange. Three of these forecasting models include weather forecasts. To sum up, the research finds an increase of forecasting power of financial time series when parameter uncertainty, model uncertainty and optimal decision making are included.

Download or read book Quantitative Easing and Long Term Yields in Small Open Economies written by Antonio Diez de los Rios and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-09-29 with total page 46 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We compare the effectiveness of Federal Reserve's asset purchase programs in lowering longterm yields with that of similar programs implemented by the Bank of England, the Swedish Riksbank, and the Swiss National Bank's reserve expansion program. We decompose government bond yields into (i) an expectations component, (ii) a global, and (iii) a country specific term premium to analyze two-day changes in 10-year yields around announcement dates. We find that, in contrast to the Federal Reserve's asset purchases, the programs implemented in these smaller economies have not been able to affect the global term premium and, furthermore, they have had limited, but significant, effect in lowering long-term yields.

Download or read book Investing Amid Low Expected Returns written by Antti Ilmanen and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2022-04-14 with total page 310 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Elevate your game in the face of challenging market conditions with this eye-opening guide to portfolio management Investing Amid Low Expected Returns: Making the Most When Markets Offer the Least provides an evidence-based blueprint for successful investing when decades of market tailwinds are turning into headwinds. For a generation, falling yields and soaring asset prices have boosted realized returns. However, this past windfall leaves retirement savers and investors now facing the prospect of record-low future expected returns. Emphasizing this pressing challenge, the book highlights the role that timeless investment practices – discipline, humility, and patience – will play in enabling investment success. It then assesses current investor practices and the body of empirical evidence to illuminate the building blocks for improving long-run returns in today’s environment and beyond. It concludes by reviewing how to put them together through effective portfolio construction, risk management, and cost control practices. In this book, readers will also find: The common investor responses so far to the low expected return challenge Extensive empirical evidence on the critical ingredients of an effective portfolio: major asset class premia, illiquidity premia, style premia, and alpha Discussions of the pros and cons of illiquid investments, factor investing, ESG investing, risk mitigation strategies, and market timing Coverage of the whole top-down investment process – throughout the book endorsing humility in tactical forecasting and boldness in diversification Ideal for institutional and active individual investors, Investing Amid Low Expected Returns is a timeless resource that enables investing with serenity even in harsher financial conditions.