Download or read book An Appraisal of Short term Economic Forecasts written by Victor Zarnowitz and published by . This book was released on 1967 with total page 168 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: First report on a study of short term economic forecasting in the USA. Statistical tables, and references.
Download or read book An Appraisal of Short term Economic Forecasts written by Victor Zarnowitz and published by . This book was released on 1967 with total page 144 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book An Appraisal of Chart Term Economic Forecasts written by Victor Zarnowitz and published by . This book was released on 1967 with total page 144 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book How Useful is the Carry Over Effect for Short Term Economic Forecasting written by Karl-Heinz Tödter and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 52 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The carry-over effect is the advance contribution of the old year to growth in the new year. Among practitioners the informative content of the carry-over effect for short-term forecasting is undisputed and is used routinely in economic forecasting. In this paper, the carry-over effect is analysed 'statistically' and it is shown how it reduces the uncertainty of short-term economic forecasts. This is followed by an empirical analysis of the carry-over effect using simple forecast models as well as Bundesbank and Consensus projections.
Download or read book Economic Forecasting and Policy written by N. Carnot and published by Springer. This book was released on 2011-07-26 with total page 516 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Economic Forecasting provides a comprehensive overview of macroeconomic forecasting. The focus is first on a wide range of theories as well as empirical methods: business cycle analysis, time series methods, macroeconomic models, medium and long-run projections, fiscal and financial forecasts, and sectoral forecasting.
Download or read book Economic Forecasting written by Elia Kacapyr and published by M.E. Sharpe. This book was released on 1996 with total page 224 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Widening the focus from the usual business forecasts, explains the techniques for predicting macroeconomic factors such as economic growth, interest rates, and employment. Reviews the concepts of business cycles and long waves, then describes techniques using economic indicators, time series, econometric models, and consensus. Also considers the evaluation of forecasts. Readers with a solid background in mathematics and statistics should learn now to make forecasts; others should get an intuitive understanding that will improve their interpretation of forecasts by others. Paper edition (unseen), $29.95. Annotation copyright by Book News, Inc., Portland, OR
Download or read book Expectations and Economic Fluctuations written by Sylvain Leduc and published by DIANE Publishing. This book was released on 2010-10 with total page 39 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Using survey-based measures of future U.S. economic activity, the authors study how changes in expectations, and their interaction with monetary policy, contribute to fluctuations in macroeconomic aggregates. They find that changes in expected future economic activity are a quantitatively important driver of economic fluctuations: a perception that good times are ahead typically leads to a significant rise in current measures of economic activity and inflation. Short-term interest rate rises in response to expectations of good times as monetary policy tightens. ¿Provides quantitative evidence on the importance of expectations-driven business cycles and on the role that monetary policy plays in shaping them.¿ Charts and tables.
Download or read book Economic Forecasting for Management written by Hans G. Graf and published by Bloomsbury Publishing USA. This book was released on 2002-08-30 with total page 264 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Before future-oriented information can be used as a basis for decision making in economics or business administration, it must be understood on a methodological level. This book provides decision makers with a thorough understanding of the possibilities offered by various forecasting methods as well as their limitations. If managers rely on a forecast with a long-term perspective to guide them in making short-term decisions, planning deficiencies will likely result. Likewise, if managers use short-term forecasts to inform their long-term strategic vision, failure could easily ensue. Graf provides the tools necessary to sidestep the common pitfall of using the wrong forecasting technique for the wrong purpose. This is not a detailed examination of the mathematical and statistical tools of empirical economic research. Instead, forecasting methods are explained so that they can be understood by the managers who employ them in their decision making. Graf demonstrates that understanding and—in special cases—cooperation between forecast developers and users is crucial to creating an effective forecast that results in informed management decisions. He discusses traditional, long-term, macroeconomic, and global economic forecasting; the scenario technique as a central instrument of long-term forecasting; and short-term economic and market forecasting.
Download or read book Techniques of Economic Forecasting written by Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development and published by . This book was released on 1965 with total page 184 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Short term Economic Forecasting written by Conference on Research in Income and Wealth and published by . This book was released on 1955 with total page 528 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "Papers delivered at the meetings of the Conference on Research in Income and Wealth held in September 1951." Bibliographical footnotes.
Download or read book Time Series Models for Short Term Forecasting Performance Indicators written by Arno Palmrich and published by GRIN Verlag. This book was released on 2009-09-30 with total page 86 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Diploma Thesis from the year 2007 in the subject Business economics - Business Management, Corporate Governance, grade: highest grade (ausgezeichnet), University of Applied Sciences Kufstein Tirol, course: Economics Statistics, language: English, abstract: Managers use forecasting in budgeting time and resources. In this thesis, various advanced time series models are constructed, computed and tested for adequacy. This thesis serves as a practical guide to regression and time series analysis. It seeks to demonstrate how to approach problems according to scientific standards to students who are familiar with SPSS® but beginners in regression and time series analysis. Bibliographic notes of classical works and more recent academic advances in time series analysis are provided throughout the text. The research question that this thesis seeks to answer can be formulated in its shortest version as: “How can the management of Dalian Chemson Chemical Products Co; Ltd. use existing company data to make short-term predictions about net sales, Cost of Goods Sold (COGS), and net contribution?” More specifically, this thesis seeks to provide different tools (models) for forecasting the P&L entries net sales, COGS, and net contribution a few months ahead. This author’s approach is based on various versions of two models: One model will forecast net sales and the other model will predict COGS. The expected net contribution is simply defined as the difference between the predictions of these two models. In chapter 4.3 an ordinary least squares regression version of the two models has been computed. In chapter 4.6 a weighted least squares regression has been applied to the models. Autoregressions have been computed in chapter 4.7.1 and two Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) versions have been constructed in chapter 4.7.6. The various versions of the models have then been compared against each other. The version that fits the data best will be used in forecasting. The statistical models in this thesis are computed using SPSS BaseTM, SPSS Regression ModelsTM and SPSS TrendsTM, versions 11.5.0. Each of the model versions constructed herein can be applied in a simple Excel spreadsheet. In the last chapter, a one-step-ahead forecast is produced via the in this thesis developed concept which consists of the most precise versions of the models to forecast net sales and COGS. The forecasting concept developed in this thesis is good in that it produces precise forecasts. Its simplified framework minimizes the effort and expertise required to obtain predictions.
Download or read book Short term Analysis of Macroeconomic Time Series written by Agustín Maravall and published by . This book was released on 1993 with total page 52 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book An Evaluation of World Economic Outlook Growth Forecasts 2004 17 written by Oya Celasun and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-08-06 with total page 47 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines the performance of World Economic Outlook (WEO) growth forecasts for 2004-17. Short-term real GDP growth forecasts over that period exhibit little bias, and their accuracy is broadly similar to those of Consensus Economics forecasts. By contrast, two- to five-year ahead WEO growth forecasts in 2004-17 tend to be upward biased, and in up to half of countries less accurate than a naïve forecast given by the average growth rate in the recent past. The analysis suggests that a more efficient use of available information on internal and external factors—such as the estimated output gap, projected terms of trade, and the growth forecasts of major trading partners—can improve the accuracy of some economies’ growth forecasts.
Download or read book Economic Forecasting written by N. Carnot and published by Springer. This book was released on 2005-08-12 with total page 335 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Economic Forecasting provides a comprehensive overview of macroeconomic forecasting. The focus is first on a wide range of theories as well as empirical methods: business cycle analysis, time series methods, macroeconomic models, medium and long-run projections, fiscal and financial forecasts, and sectoral forecasting. In addition, the book addresses the main issues surrounding the use of forecasts (accuracy, communication challenges) and their policy implications. A tour of the economic data and forecasting institutions is also provided.
Download or read book Short term Economic Forecasting written by and published by . This book was released on 1955 with total page 349 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Methods and Techniques of Business Forecasting written by William F. Butler and published by Prentice Hall. This book was released on 1974 with total page 660 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Covers all phases of forecasting, offering step-by-step guide-lines for forecasting business sales, stock market prices, and the level of interest rates and monetary policy.
Download or read book Forecasting written by William Ascher and published by . This book was released on 1978-02-17 with total page 264 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Abstract: Forecasting is a new, and still changing field. One of the most important factors in the relationships between method and result is that core assumptions are more important than sophisticated techniques; improved technique does not compensate for faulty assumptions. Forecasting is still an art and one that is difficult to master. The uses of forecasting can be so varied, and applied to so many different disciplines, that it's worth making the effort. The appraisal of forecasts and the choice of the "most likely" from a group focusing on the same area is also a type of forecasting.
