Download or read book An Application of the Fan Chart Approach to Debt Sustainability in Post HIPC Low Income Countries written by Maximilien Kaffo Melou and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-06-11 with total page 25 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We analyse the debt dynamics in countries that benefited from the HIPC/MDRI debt relief initiatives with a view to applying a probabilistic approach to estimating future debt paths for those countries. We extend the probabilistic approach to public debt sustainability analysis (DSA) proposed by Celasun et al. (2006). This required addressing the twin challenges of a the time period that is too short to conduct country-by-country estimations and the presence, suggested by econometric evidence, of a break–point around 2006 in the dynamics of debt accumulation. To overcome the data limitations, we pool the data and estimate a panel VAR, thus taking advantage of the large cross–section. To account for the break–point, while applying a probabilistic approach to forecasting debt paths, we use the post–break–point information so as not to bias the forecasts of debt paths. As an illustration of the approach we apply the methodology to eight countries with different debt profiles.
Download or read book Applying the Debt Sustainability Framework for Low Income Countries Post Debt Relief written by World Bank and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2006-06-11 with total page 64 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In April 2006, the Executive Boards of the Bank and the Fund reviewed the debt sustainability framework (DSF) for low-income countries and the implications of the multilateral debt relief initiative. Directors thought that the DSF was broadly appropriate and that no major changes were warranted, but saw scope for additional guidance on the application of the framework in a context where the apparent borrowing space created by debt relief raises new challenges in terms of policy advice. Most Directors supported a case-by-case approach for assessing the appropriate pace of debt accumulation in countries with debt below the DSF thresholds, but requested the development of specific recommendations on the implementation of such a case-by-case approach.
Download or read book Debt Relief and Beyond written by Carlos A. Primo Braga and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2009-10-02 with total page 478 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The history of debt relief goes back several decades. It reveals that a country s accumulation of unsustainable debt stems from such factors as deficiencies in macroeconomic management, adverse terms-of-trade shocks, and poor governance. Debt-relief initiatives have provided debt-burdened countries with the opportunity for a fresh start, but whether the benefits of debt relief can be preserved depends on transformations in a country s policies and institutions. In 1996, the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) Initiative was launched as the first comprehensive, multilateral, debt-relief framework for low-income countries. In 2005, the Multilateral Debt Relief Initiative was established, which increased the level of debt relief provided to HIPCs. As of early 2009, assistance through these two initiatives had been committed to 35 countries and amounted to US$117 billion in nominal terms, or half of the 2007 GDP of these countries. 'Debt Relief and Beyond' assesses the implications of debt relief for low-income countries and how its benefits can be preserved and used to fight poverty. The chapter authors bring unique operational experience to their examination of debt relief, debt sustainability, and debt management. Several key questions are addressed, including, what consequences does debt relief have for poverty-reducing expenditures, growth, and access to finance? Can debt relief guarantee debt sustainability? How can debt management at all levels of government be improved? What lessons can be learned from countries that have experienced debt restructuring? Finally, this book provides sound empirical evidence using current econometric techniques.
Download or read book Debt Relief Initiatives written by Marco Arnone and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2016-05-13 with total page 300 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book deals with the recent debt crises in developing countries and analyzes the design and implementation of the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) Initiative, by providing background concepts, pointing out the main drawbacks and suggesting a different approach to debt sustainability and debt relief programs. The authors merge academic, operational and institutional expertise, in order to provide an evaluation as complete and balanced as possible on the much-debated effectiveness of debt relief in fostering economic growth, reducing poverty and reaching debt sustainability. Marco Arnone and Andrea F. Presbitero assess the joint evolution of external and domestic public debt and produce original empirical evidence on the potential effects of public debt on investment, economic growth and institution-building in low- and middle-income countries. The book also explores relevant and up-to-date policy issues, such as the loans-grants mix and the development of responsible lending strategies in foreign assistance, the surge of non-concessional and domestic borrowing by low-income countries, and the impact of the 2008-2009 global financial crisis on debt sustainability.
Download or read book Debt Sustainability in Low Income Countries Further Considerations on an Operational Framework and Policy Implications written by World Bank and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2004-10-09 with total page 58 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper seeks to address queries on several operational issues: (i) the robustness of the indicative thresholds; (ii) modalities for implementing DSAs; and (iii) operational implications for the Fund, Bank, and other international financial institutions and creditors.
Download or read book Applying the Debt Sustainability Framework for Low Income Countries Post Debt Relief written by Internationaler Währungsfonds and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In April 2006, the Executive Boards of the Bank and the Fund reviewed the debt sustainability framework (DSF) for low-income countries and the implications of the multilateral debt relief initiative. Directors thought that the DSF was broadly appropriate and that no major changes were warranted, but saw scope for additional guidance on the application of the framework in a context where the apparent borrowing space created by debt relief raises new challenges in terms of policy advice. Most Directors supported a case-by-case approach for assessing the appropriate pace of debt accumulation in countries with debt below the DSF thresholds, but requested the development of specific recommendations on the implementation of such a case-by-case approach.
Download or read book Debt Sustainability in Low Income Countries Proposal for an Operational Framework and Policy Implications written by International Monetary Fund. Finance Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2004-03-02 with total page 84 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: NULL
Download or read book Debt Sustainability Analyses for Low Income Countries An Assessment of Projection Performance written by Mr.Henry Mooney and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-10-30 with total page 48 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper develops new error assessment methods to evaluate the performance of debt sustainability analyses (DSAs) for low-income countries (LICs) from 2005-2015. We find some evidence of a bias towards optimism for public and external debt projections, which was most appreciable for LICs with the highest incomes, prospects for market access, and at ‘moderate’ risk of debt distress. This was often driven by overly-ambitious fiscal and/or growth forecasts, and projected ‘residuals’. When we control for unanticipated shocks, we find that biases remain evident, driven in part by optimism regarding government fiscal reaction functions and expected growth dividends from investment.
Download or read book Debt Sustainability in Low Income Countries Toward a Forward Looking Strategy written by International Monetary Fund. Policy Development and Review Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2003-05-23 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: NULL
Download or read book Review of Low Income Country Debt Sustainability Framework and Implications of the Multilateral Debt Relief Initiative MDRI written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2006-03-24 with total page 36 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper reviews the experience with the joint IMF-World Bank Debt Sustainability Framework for low-income countries, including cooperation between the staffs, and highlights the implications of the Multilateral Debt Relief Initiative.
Download or read book Guidance Note on the Bank Fund Debt Sustainability Framework for Low Income Countries written by International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-02-14 with total page 72 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Low-income countries (LICs) face significant challenges in meeting their Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) while at the same time ensuring that their external debt remains sustainable. In April 2005, the Executive Boards of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the International Development Association (IDA) approved the introduction of the Debt Sustainability Framework (DSF), a tool developed jointly by IMF and World Bank staff to conduct public and external debt sustainability analysis in low-income countries. The DSF has since been serving to help guide the borrowing decisions of LICs, provide guidance for creditors’ lending and grant allocation decisions, and improve World Bank and IMF assessments and policy advice. The latest review of the framework was approved by the Executive Boards in September 2017. This introduced reforms to ensure that the DSF remains appropriate for the rapidly changing financing landscape facing LICs and to further improve insights into debt vulnerabilities. This note provides operational and technical guidance on the implementation of the reformed framework.
Download or read book Debt Relief and the Rule of Thumb written by Peter Hjertholm and published by . This book was released on 2001 with total page 50 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Staff Guidance Note on the Application of the Joint Fund Bank Debt Sustainability Framework for Low Income Countries written by Internationaler Währungsfonds and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The objective of the joint Bank-Fund debt sustainability framework for low-income countries is to support LICs in their efforts to achieve their development goals without creating future debt problems. Countries that have received debt relief under the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) Initiative and the Multilateral Debt Relief Initiative (MDRI) need to be kept on a sustainable track. Under the framework, country DSAs are prepared jointly by Bank and Fund staff, with close collaboration between the two staffs on the design of the macroeconomic baseline, alternative scenarios, the debt distress rating, and the drafting of the write-up.
Download or read book Debt Relief Under the HIPC Initiative written by Mr.Lisandro Abrego and published by INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND. This book was released on 2001-09-01 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper discusses the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) Initiative in the perspective of sizable historical debt relief and large positive net resource flows to HIPCs. It argues that, by substantially reducing HIPCs’ debt stocks and debt service payments, the Initiative provides a solid basis for debt sustainability and room for increased social spending. For poverty reduction, HIPC relief is important but broader international support is needed. The paper maintains that, as experience has shown, external support can be effective only if it reinforces sound policies implemented by HIPCs themselves. Thus, debt relief and official development assistance are critical as “help for self-help.”
Download or read book Revisiting the Debt Sustainability Framework for Low Income Countries written by International Monetary Fund and published by INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND. This book was released on 2012-12-01 with total page 70 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Introduced in 2005, the joint IMF-World Bank Debt Sustainability Framework (DSF) is a standardized framework for conducting public and external debt sustainability analysis (DSA) in low-income countries (LICs). It aims to help guide the borrowing decisions of LICs, provide guidance for creditors‘ lending and grant allocation decisions, and improve World Bank and IMF assessments and policy advice. The framework was previously reviewed in 2006 and 2009. This paper provides a comprehensive review of the framework to assess whether it remains adequate in light of changing circumstances in LICs. It reviews the DSF‘s performance to date, presents the results of recent analytical work by IMF and World Banks staffs, and discusses a number of areas in which the framework could be improved.
Download or read book Debt Relief for Low Income Countries and the Hipc Initiative written by Anthony Boote and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The paper describes the debt burden of low-income countries and the traditional mechanisms that have been implemented by the international community to alleviate this burden. While these mechanisms are sufficient to reduce the external debts of many heavily indebted poor countries (HIPCs) to sustainable levels provided these countries implement sound economic policies, they are likely insufficient for a number of countries. To deal with these cases, the World Bank and the IMF have jointly proposed and implemented the HIPC Initiative. The paper describes this Initiative and suggests that it should enable HIPCs to exit from the debt rescheduling process.
Download or read book Analytical Aspects of the Debt Problems of Heavily Indebted Poor Countries written by Ravi Kanbur and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 48 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A group of heavily indebted low-income countries (HIPCs), most in Sub-Saharan Africa, has continued to experience external debt problems. Because the HIPCs' economic characteristics and external imbalances are very different from those of middle-income countries, the analysis of debt problems and debt-reduction must be modified and complemented in important ways. Therefore, the authors revisit the methodological issues underlying debt sustainability analysis, as well as theory and empirical evidence on how large debts affect economic performance. Their main question is: Should consideration be given to more upfront debt reduction for HIPCs, over and above that provided under current mechanisms, or should debts continue to be refinanced, subject to conditionality? Ongoing refinancing with conditionality reduces moral hazard and gives countries an incentive to maintain good policies. However, this approach entails transition costs, can create uncertainty, may lack credibility, and can impede local ownership of reform programs. Upfront debt reduction can create moral hazard problems and may weaken the incentives for maintaining sound policy. There are theoretical arguments about why a high level of debt can impede investment and policy reform. Although empirical evidence concerning the hypothesis that HIPCs suffer significant adverse effects from their large debt overhang is inconclusive, evidence from middle-income countries suggests that debt reduction can benefit an economy if the policy environment is right. Whether there should be further debt reduction for specific heavily indebted low-income countries depends on the facts for each case and requires quantitative analysis of data about different forces at play in the countries involved.
