Download or read book Extreme Value Theory with Applications to Natural Hazards written by Nicolas Bousquet and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2021-10-09 with total page 491 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This richly illustrated book describes statistical extreme value theory for the quantification of natural hazards, such as strong winds, floods and rainfall, and discusses an interdisciplinary approach to allow the theoretical methods to be applied. The approach consists of a number of steps: data selection and correction, non-stationary theory (to account for trends due to climate change), and selecting appropriate estimation techniques based on both decision-theoretic features (e.g., Bayesian theory), empirical robustness and a valid treatment of uncertainties. It also examines and critically reviews alternative approaches based on stochastic and dynamic numerical models, as well as recently emerging data analysis issues and presents large-scale, multidisciplinary, state-of-the-art case studies. Intended for all those with a basic knowledge of statistical methods interested in the quantification of natural hazards, the book is also a valuable resource for engineers conducting risk analyses in collaboration with scientists from other fields (such as hydrologists, meteorologists, climatologists).

Download or read book Extreme Events in Finance written by Francois Longin and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2016-10-17 with total page 638 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A guide to the growing importance of extreme value risk theory, methods, and applications in the financial sector Presenting a uniquely accessible guide, Extreme Events in Finance: A Handbook of Extreme Value Theory and Its Applications features a combination of the theory, methods, and applications of extreme value theory (EVT) in finance and a practical understanding of market behavior including both ordinary and extraordinary conditions. Beginning with a fascinating history of EVTs and financial modeling, the handbook introduces the historical implications that resulted in the applications and then clearly examines the fundamental results of EVT in finance. After dealing with these theoretical results, the handbook focuses on the EVT methods critical for data analysis. Finally, the handbook features the practical applications and techniques and how these can be implemented in financial markets. Extreme Events in Finance: A Handbook of Extreme Value Theory and Its Applications includes: Over 40 contributions from international experts in the areas of finance, statistics, economics, business, insurance, and risk management Topical discussions on univariate and multivariate case extremes as well as regulation in financial markets Extensive references in order to provide readers with resources for further study Discussions on using R packages to compute the value of risk and related quantities The book is a valuable reference for practitioners in financial markets such as financial institutions, investment funds, and corporate treasuries, financial engineers, quantitative analysts, regulators, risk managers, large-scale consultancy groups, and insurers. Extreme Events in Finance: A Handbook of Extreme Value Theory and Its Applications is also a useful textbook for postgraduate courses on the methodology of EVTs in finance.

Download or read book Extreme Value Theory and Applications written by J. Galambos and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-12-01 with total page 526 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: It appears that we live in an age of disasters: the mighty Missis sippi and Missouri flood millions of acres, earthquakes hit Tokyo and California, airplanes crash due to mechanical failure and the seemingly ever increasing wind speeds make the storms more and more frightening. While all these may seem to be unexpected phenomena to the man on the street, they are actually happening according to well defined rules of science known as extreme value theory. We know that records must be broken in the future, so if a flood design is based on the worst case of the past then we are not really prepared against floods. Materials will fail due to fatigue, so if the body of an aircraft looks fine to the naked eye, it might still suddenly fail if the aircraft has been in operation over an extended period of time. Our theory has by now penetrated the so cial sciences, the medical profession, economics and even astronomy. We believe that our field has come of age. In or~er to fully utilize the great progress in the theory of extremes and its ever increasing acceptance in practice, an international conference was organized in which equal weight was given to theory and practice. This book is Volume I of the Proceedings of this conference. In selecting the papers for Volume lour guide was to have authoritative works with a large variety of coverage of both theory and practice.

Download or read book Extreme Values in Finance Telecommunications and the Environment written by Barbel Finkenstadt and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2003-07-28 with total page 422 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Because of its potential to ...predict the unpredictable,... extreme value theory (EVT) and methodology is currently receiving a great deal of attention from statistical and mathematical researchers. This book brings together world-recognized authorities in their respective fields to provide expository chapters on the applications, use, and theory

Download or read book An Introduction to Statistical Modeling of Extreme Values written by Stuart Coles and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-11-27 with total page 219 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Directly oriented towards real practical application, this book develops both the basic theoretical framework of extreme value models and the statistical inferential techniques for using these models in practice. Intended for statisticians and non-statisticians alike, the theoretical treatment is elementary, with heuristics often replacing detailed mathematical proof. Most aspects of extreme modeling techniques are covered, including historical techniques (still widely used) and contemporary techniques based on point process models. A wide range of worked examples, using genuine datasets, illustrate the various modeling procedures and a concluding chapter provides a brief introduction to a number of more advanced topics, including Bayesian inference and spatial extremes. All the computations are carried out using S-PLUS, and the corresponding datasets and functions are available via the Internet for readers to recreate examples for themselves. An essential reference for students and researchers in statistics and disciplines such as engineering, finance and environmental science, this book will also appeal to practitioners looking for practical help in solving real problems. Stuart Coles is Reader in Statistics at the University of Bristol, UK, having previously lectured at the universities of Nottingham and Lancaster. In 1992 he was the first recipient of the Royal Statistical Society's research prize. He has published widely in the statistical literature, principally in the area of extreme value modeling.

Download or read book Extreme Value Methods with Applications to Finance written by Serguei Y. Novak and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2011-12-20 with total page 402 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Extreme value theory (EVT) deals with extreme (rare) events, which are sometimes reported as outliers. Certain textbooks encourage readers to remove outliers—in other words, to correct reality if it does not fit the model. Recognizing that any model is only an approximation of reality, statisticians are eager to extract information about unknown distribution making as few assumptions as possible. Extreme Value Methods with Applications to Finance concentrates on modern topics in EVT, such as processes of exceedances, compound Poisson approximation, Poisson cluster approximation, and nonparametric estimation methods. These topics have not been fully focused on in other books on extremes. In addition, the book covers: Extremes in samples of random size Methods of estimating extreme quantiles and tail probabilities Self-normalized sums of random variables Measures of market risk Along with examples from finance and insurance to illustrate the methods, Extreme Value Methods with Applications to Finance includes over 200 exercises, making it useful as a reference book, self-study tool, or comprehensive course text. A systematic background to a rapidly growing branch of modern Probability and Statistics: extreme value theory for stationary sequences of random variables.

Download or read book Financial Risk Forecasting written by Jon Danielsson and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2011-04-20 with total page 307 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Financial Risk Forecasting is a complete introduction to practical quantitative risk management, with a focus on market risk. Derived from the authors teaching notes and years spent training practitioners in risk management techniques, it brings together the three key disciplines of finance, statistics and modeling (programming), to provide a thorough grounding in risk management techniques. Written by renowned risk expert Jon Danielsson, the book begins with an introduction to financial markets and market prices, volatility clusters, fat tails and nonlinear dependence. It then goes on to present volatility forecasting with both univatiate and multivatiate methods, discussing the various methods used by industry, with a special focus on the GARCH family of models. The evaluation of the quality of forecasts is discussed in detail. Next, the main concepts in risk and models to forecast risk are discussed, especially volatility, value-at-risk and expected shortfall. The focus is both on risk in basic assets such as stocks and foreign exchange, but also calculations of risk in bonds and options, with analytical methods such as delta-normal VaR and duration-normal VaR and Monte Carlo simulation. The book then moves on to the evaluation of risk models with methods like backtesting, followed by a discussion on stress testing. The book concludes by focussing on the forecasting of risk in very large and uncommon events with extreme value theory and considering the underlying assumptions behind almost every risk model in practical use – that risk is exogenous – and what happens when those assumptions are violated. Every method presented brings together theoretical discussion and derivation of key equations and a discussion of issues in practical implementation. Each method is implemented in both MATLAB and R, two of the most commonly used mathematical programming languages for risk forecasting with which the reader can implement the models illustrated in the book. The book includes four appendices. The first introduces basic concepts in statistics and financial time series referred to throughout the book. The second and third introduce R and MATLAB, providing a discussion of the basic implementation of the software packages. And the final looks at the concept of maximum likelihood, especially issues in implementation and testing. The book is accompanied by a website - www.financialriskforecasting.com – which features downloadable code as used in the book.

Download or read book Dependence Modeling written by Harry Joe and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2011 with total page 370 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: 1. Introduction : Dependence modeling / D. Kurowicka -- 2. Multivariate copulae / M. Fischer -- 3. Vines arise / R.M. Cooke, H. Joe and K. Aas -- 4. Sampling count variables with specified Pearson correlation : A comparison between a naive and a C-vine sampling approach / V. Erhardt and C. Czado -- 5. Micro correlations and tail dependence / R.M. Cooke, C. Kousky and H. Joe -- 6. The Copula information criterion and Its implications for the maximum pseudo-likelihood estimator / S. Gronneberg -- 7. Dependence comparisons of vine copulae with four or more variables / H. Joe -- 8. Tail dependence in vine copulae / H. Joe -- 9. Counting vines / O. Morales-Napoles -- 10. Regular vines : Generation algorithm and number of equivalence classes / H. Joe, R.M. Cooke and D. Kurowicka -- 11. Optimal truncation of vines / D. Kurowicka -- 12. Bayesian inference for D-vines : Estimation and model selection / C. Czado and A. Min -- 13. Analysis of Australian electricity loads using joint Bayesian inference of D-vines with autoregressive margins / C. Czado, F. Gartner and A. Min -- 14. Non-parametric Bayesian belief nets versus vines / A. Hanea -- 15. Modeling dependence between financial returns using pair-copula constructions / K. Aas and D. Berg -- 16. Dynamic D-vine model / A. Heinen and A. Valdesogo -- 17. Summary and future directions / D. Kurowicka

Download or read book Modelling Extremal Events written by Paul Embrechts and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-03-14 with total page 657 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "A reader's first impression on leafing through this book is of the large number of graphs and diagrams, used to illustrate shapes of distributions...and to show real data examples in various ways. A closer reading reveals a nice mix of theory and applications, with the copious graphical illustrations alluded to. Such a mixture is of course dear to the heart of the applied probabilist/statistician, and should impress even the most ardent theorists." --MATHEMATICAL REVIEWS

Download or read book Decision Technologies for Computational Finance written by Apostolos-Paul N. Refenes and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-12-01 with total page 472 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume contains selected papers that were presented at the International Conference COMPUTATIONAL FINANCE 1997 held at London Business School on December 15-17 1997. Formerly known as Neural Networks in the Capital Markets (NNCM), this series of meetings has emerged as a truly multi-disciplinary international conference and provided an international focus for innovative research on the application of a multiplicity of advanced decision technologies to many areas of financial engineering. It has drawn upon theoretical advances in financial economics and robust methodological developments in the statistical, econometric and computer sciences. To reflect its multi-disciplinary nature, the NNCM conference has adopted the new title COMPUTATIONAL FINANCE. The papers in this volume are organised in six parts. Market Dynamics and Risk, Trading and Arbitrage strategies, Volatility and Options, Term-Structure and Factor models, Corporate Distress Models and Advances on Methodology. This years' acceptance rate (38%) reflects both the increasing interest in the conference and the Programme Committee's efforts to improve the quality of the meeting year-on-year. I would like to thank the members of the programme committee for their efforts in refereeing the papers. I also would like to thank the members of the computational finance group at London Business School and particularly Neil Burgess, Peter Bolland, Yves Bentz, and Nevil Towers for organising the meeting.

Download or read book Extreme Value Theory written by Laurens de Haan and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2007-12-09 with total page 421 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Focuses on theoretical results along with applications All the main topics covering the heart of the subject are introduced to the reader in a systematic fashion Concentration is on the probabilistic and statistical aspects of extreme values Excellent introduction to extreme value theory at the graduate level, requiring only some mathematical maturity

Download or read book Statistics of Extremes written by Jan Beirlant and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2004-10-15 with total page 516 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Research in the statistical analysis of extreme values has flourished over the past decade: new probability models, inference and data analysis techniques have been introduced; and new application areas have been explored. Statistics of Extremes comprehensively covers a wide range of models and application areas, including risk and insurance: a major area of interest and relevance to extreme value theory. Case studies are introduced providing a good balance of theory and application of each model discussed, incorporating many illustrated examples and plots of data. The last part of the book covers some interesting advanced topics, including time series, regression, multivariate and Bayesian modelling of extremes, the use of which has huge potential.

Download or read book Extreme Value Distributions written by Samuel Kotz and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2000 with total page 195 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This important book provides an up-to-date comprehensive and down-to-earth survey of the theory and practice of extreme value distributions OCo one of the most prominent success stories of modern applied probability and statistics. Originated by E J Gumbel in the early forties as a tool for predicting floods, extreme value distributions evolved during the last 50 years into a coherent theory with applications in practically all fields of human endeavor where maximal or minimal values (the so-called extremes) are of relevance. The book is of usefulness both for a beginner with a limited probabilistic background and to expert in the field. Sample Chapter(s). Chapter 1.1: Historical Survey (139 KB). Chapter 1.2: The Three Types of Extreme Value Distributions (146 KB). Chapter 1.3: Limiting Distributions and Domain of Attraction (210 KB). Chapter 1.4: Distribution Function and Moments of Type 1 Distribution (160 KB). Chapter 1.5: Order Statistics, Record Values and Characterizations (175 KB). Contents: Univariate Extreme Value Distributions; Generalized Extreme Value Distributions; Multivariate Extreme Value Distributions. Readership: Applied probabilists, applied statisticians, environmental scientists, climatologists, industrial engineers and management experts."

Download or read book On extreme value statistics written by Chen Zhou and published by Rozenberg Publishers. This book was released on 2008 with total page 224 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In the 18th century, statisticians sometimes worked as consultants to gamblers. In order to answer questions like "If a fair coin is flipped 100 times, what is the probability of getting 60 or more heads?", Abraham de Moivre discovered the so-called "normal curve". Independently, Pierre-Simon Laplace derived the central limit theorem, where the normal distribution acts as the limit for the distribution of the sample mean. Nowadays, statisticians sometimes work as consultants for economists, to whom the normal distribution is far from a satisfactory model. For example, one may need to model large-impact financial events in order to to answer questions like "What is the probability of getting into a crisis period similar to the credit squeeze in 2007 in the coming 10 years?". At first glance, estimating the chances of events that rarely happen or even have never happened before sounds like a "mission impossible". The development of Extreme Value Theory (EVT) shows that it is in fact possible to achieve this goal. Different from the central limit theorem, Extreme Value Theory starts from the limit distribution of the sample maximum. Initiated by M. Frechet, R. Fisher and R. von Mises, the limit theory completed by B. Gnedenko, gave the fundamental assumption in EVT, the "extreme value condition". Statistically, the extreme value condition provides a semi-parametric model for the tails of distribution functions. Therefore it can be applied to evaluate the rare events. On the other hand, since the assumption is rather general and natural, the semi-parametric model can have extensive applications in numerous felds.

Download or read book Statistics of Extremes written by Jan Beirlant and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2006-03-17 with total page 522 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Research in the statistical analysis of extreme values has flourished over the past decade: new probability models, inference and data analysis techniques have been introduced; and new application areas have been explored. Statistics of Extremes comprehensively covers a wide range of models and application areas, including risk and insurance: a major area of interest and relevance to extreme value theory. Case studies are introduced providing a good balance of theory and application of each model discussed, incorporating many illustrated examples and plots of data. The last part of the book covers some interesting advanced topics, including time series, regression, multivariate and Bayesian modelling of extremes, the use of which has huge potential.

Download or read book Handbook Of Heavy tailed Distributions In Asset Management And Risk Management written by Michele Leonardo Bianchi and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2019-03-08 with total page 598 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The study of heavy-tailed distributions allows researchers to represent phenomena that occasionally exhibit very large deviations from the mean. The dynamics underlying these phenomena is an interesting theoretical subject, but the study of their statistical properties is in itself a very useful endeavor from the point of view of managing assets and controlling risk. In this book, the authors are primarily concerned with the statistical properties of heavy-tailed distributions and with the processes that exhibit jumps. A detailed overview with a Matlab implementation of heavy-tailed models applied in asset management and risk managements is presented. The book is not intended as a theoretical treatise on probability or statistics, but as a tool to understand the main concepts regarding heavy-tailed random variables and processes as applied to real-world applications in finance. Accordingly, the authors review approaches and methodologies whose realization will be useful for developing new methods for forecasting of financial variables where extreme events are not treated as anomalies, but as intrinsic parts of the economic process.

Download or read book Operational Risk written by Anna S. Chernobai and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2007-06-15 with total page 328 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Operational Risk While operational risk has long been regarded as a mere part of "other" risks—outside the realm of credit and market risk—it has quickly made its way to the forefront of finance. In fact, with implementation of the Basel II Capital Accord already underway, many financial professionals—as well as those preparing to enter this field—must now become familiar with a variety of issues related to operational risk modeling and management. Written by the experienced team of Anna Chernobai, Svetlozar Rachev, and Frank Fabozzi, Operational Risk: A Guide to Basel II Capital Requirements, Models, and Analysis will introduce you to the key concepts associated with this discipline. Filled with in-depth insights, expert advice, and innovative research, this comprehensive guide not only presents you with an abundant amount of information regarding operational risk, but it also walks you through a wide array of examples that will solidify your understanding of the issues discussed. Topics covered include: The main challenges that exist in modeling operational risk The variety of approaches used to model operational losses Value-at-Risk and its role in quantifying and managing operational risk The three pillars of the Basel II Capital Accord And much more