Download or read book Is Weapon System Cost Growth Increasing written by Obaid Younossi and published by Rand Corporation. This book was released on 2007 with total page 142 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In recent decades, there have been numerous attempts to rein in the cost growth of U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) acquisition programs. Cost growth is the ratio of the cost estimate reported in a program's final Selected Acquisition Report (SAR) and the cost-estimate baseline reported in a prior SAR issued at a particular milestone. Drawing on prior RAND research, new analyses of completed and ongoing weapon system programs, and data drawn from SARs, this study addresses the following questions: What is the cost growth of DoD weapon systems? What has been the trend of cost growth over the past three decades? To address the magnitude of cost growth, it examines cost growth in completed programs; to evaluate the cost growth trend over time, it provides additional analysis of a selection of ongoing programs. This sample of ongoing programs permits a look at growth trends in the more recent past. Changes in the mix of system types over time and dollar-weighted analysis were also considered because earlier studies have suggested that cost growth varies by program type and the cost of the program. The findings suggest that development cost growth over the past three decades has remained high and without any significant improvement.
Download or read book An Analysis of Weapon System Cost Growth written by and published by . This book was released on 1993 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Cost growth in weapon system development, one result of the inherent risk of developing advanced systems, has been a prevalent problem for many years. A systematic bias in cost estimates can undermine the basis of resource allocation decisions, an important problem in a tight budget environment. Currently DoD is in this situation. This exploratory research attempts to gain new insight into this old acquisition issue. In particular, our objectives were to quantify the magnitude of cost growth in weapon systems, and identify factors affecting cost growth. A better understanding of the scope of the cost growth problem would provide decisionmakers with an improved basis for mitigating cost growth. Insight into the drivers of cost growth might suggest policy alternatives appropriate to the goal of mitigating cost growth. This research uses a database composed of 197 major weapon systems reporting through the Selected Acquisition Report (SAR) process as of December 1990 to address these issues. While we have quantified the magnitude of weapon system cost growth along a number of dimensions, we could not definitively account for the observed cost growth patterns. Thus, no silver bullet policy option is available for mitigating cost growth.
Download or read book Sources of Weapon System Cost Growth written by Joseph G. Bolten and published by Rand Corporation. This book was released on 2008-06-19 with total page 117 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This analysis uses data from Selected Acquisition Reports to determine the causes of cost growth in 35 mature major defense acquisition programs. Four major sources of growth are identified: (1) errors in estimation and scheduling, (2) decisions by the government, (3) financial matters, and (4) miscellaneous. The analysis shows that more than two-thirds of cost growth (measured as simple averages) is caused by decisions, most of which involve quantity changes, requirements growth, and schedule changes.
Download or read book An Analysis of Weapon System Cost Growth written by and published by . This book was released on 1993 with total page 97 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Cost growth in weapon system development, one result of the inherent risk of developing advanced systems, has been a prevalent problem for many years. A systematic bias in cost estimates can undermine the basis of resource allocation decisions, an important problem in a tight budget environment. Currently DoD is in this situation. This exploratory research attempts to gain new insight into this old acquisition issue. In particular, our objectives were to quantify the magnitude of cost growth in weapon systems, and identify factors affecting cost growth. A better understanding of the scope of the cost growth problem would provide decisionmakers with an improved basis for mitigating cost growth. Insight into the drivers of cost growth might suggest policy alternatives appropriate to the goal of mitigating cost growth. This research uses a database composed of 197 major weapon systems reporting through the Selected Acquisition Report (SAR) process as of December 1990 to address these issues. While we have quantified the magnitude of weapon system cost growth along a number of dimensions, we could not definitively account for the observed cost growth patterns. Thus, no silver bullet policy option is available for mitigating cost growth.
Download or read book Historical Cost Growth of Completed Weapon System Programs written by Mark V. Arena and published by Rand Corporation. This book was released on 2006 with total page 74 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This report is one of a series from a RAND Project AIR FORCE project, "The Cost of Future Military Aircraft: Historical Cost Estimating Relationships and Cost Reduction Initiatives." The purpose of the project is to improve the tools used to estimate the costs of future weapon systems. It focuses on how recent technical, management, and government policy changes affect cost. This report focuses on the accuracy of cost estimates. For our analysis, we used a very specific sample of Selected Acquisition Report (SAR) data, namely only programs that are complete or are nearly so. The analysis indicates a systematic bias toward underestimating the costs and substantial uncertainty in estimating the final cost of a weapon system. In contrast to the previous literature, the cost growth was higher than previously observed. We also found few correlations with cost growth, but observed that programs with longer duration had greater cost growth and electronics programs tended to have lower cost growth. Although there were some differences in the mean cost growth factors among the military departments, the differences were not statistically significant. While newer programs appear to have lower cost growth, this trend appears to be due to factors other than acquisition policies.
Download or read book Cost Growth in Weapon Systems written by Neil M. Singer and published by . This book was released on 1983 with total page 42 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Historical Cost Growth of Completed Weapon System Programs written by and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This report is one of a series from a RAND Project AIR FORCE project, "The Cost of Future Military Aircraft: Historical Cost Estimating Relationships and Cost Reduction Initiatives." The report complements another document from this project, "Impossible Certainty: Cost Risk Analysis for Air Force Systems," and includes a literature review of cost growth studies and a more extensive analysis of the historical cost growth in acquisition programs than appears in the companion report. Overall, most of the studies reviewed reported that actual costs were greater than estimates of baseline costs. The most common metric used to measure cost growth is the cost growth factor (CGF), which is defined as the ratio of the actual cost to the estimated costs. A CGF of less than 1.0 indicates that the estimate was higher than the actual cost -- an underrun. When the CGF exceeds 1.0, the actual costs were higher than the estimate -- an overrun. Studies of weapon system cost growth have mainly relied on data from Selected Acquisition Reports (SARs). These reports are prepared annually by all major defense acquisition program (MDAP) offices within the military services to provide the U.S. Congress with cost, schedule, and performance status. The comparison baseline (estimate) typically corresponds to a major acquisition decision milestone. Prior studies have reported Milestone (MS) II CGFs for development costs ranging from 1.16 to 2.26; estimates of procurement CGFs ranging from 1.16 to 1.65; and total program CGFs ranging from 1.20 to 1.54. Regarding the differences among cost growth due to service, weapon, and time period, prior studies tended to find the following: Army weapon systems had higher cost growth than did weapon systems for the Air Force or Navy; cost growth differs by equipment type; and cost growth has declined from the 1960s and 1970s, after it was recognized as an important problem.
Download or read book Is Weapon System Cost Growth Increasing A Quantitative Assessment of Completed and Ongoing Programs written by and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Cost growth in DoD acquisition programs has been a long-standing concern of senior policymakers and members of Congress. In recent decades, there have been numerous attempts to rein in this growth. Some changes involve reforms to the acquisition process, while others entail legislation. The RAND Corporation has a long history of studying cost growth in defense acquisition, with research reaching back to the 1950s.
Download or read book Cost Growth in Major Weapon Systems in The Department of Defense written by United States. General Accounting Office and published by . This book was released on 1973 with total page 76 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Sources of Weapon System Cost Growth Analysis of 35 Major Defense Acquisition Programs written by and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Previous RAND Project AIR FORCE work has concluded that the Department of Defense (DoD) and the military departments historically have underestimated the cost of new weapon systems. Analysis of the data in Selected Acquisition Reports (SARs) for a sample of 68 completed programs showed that the average total cost growth (after adjusting for procurement-quantity changes) was 46 percent over the baseline estimate made at Milestone B (MS B) and 16 percent over the baseline estimate made at MS C. The cost growth typically continued for about 75 percent of the time between the initiation of major development and the expending of 90 percent of program funding. Most of the cost growth occurred early in the acquisition phase, and the magnitude of development cost growth at completion for programs initiated in the 1970s, 1980s, and 1990s remained relatively steady. Although quantifying cost growth is important, the larger issue is why cost growth occurs. To answer that question, this analysis examines 35 mature, but not necessarily complete, major defense acquisition programs (MDAPs) from the database of SARs that document the development and procurement of a variety of systems, including aircraft, missiles, electronics systems, launch vehicles, munitions, vehicles, and satellites. The programs were similar in type and complexity to those conducted by the Air Force. We analyzed a relatively small number of programs because of the labor-intensive nature of the work. We first examined the programs as a complete set and then analyzed Air Force and non Air Force programs separately to determine whether the causes of cost growth in the two groups differed.
Download or read book A Quantitative Analysis of Factors Affecting Weapon System Cost Growth written by Bobby J. Pannell and published by . This book was released on 1994 with total page 47 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This thesis quantitatively analyzes the factors that affect weapon system cost growth after Milestone 2. The data from nine weapon systems was reconstructed by the Army and Navy from Selected Acquisition Reports (SARs) with the cost variances reclassified into a new categorization system to more readily determine the causes of cost growth. Each cost variance was classified as to whether it was attributable to a mistake in the cost estimating process or a post-Milestone 2 decision, with further classification into subcategories for a more detailed analysis. The cost variances were divided by the Milestone 2 Decision Estimate (DE) to form a cost growth ratio (CGR). The findings reveal that the Department of Defense has about 10.8% cost growth in the procurement process. Cost growth due to decisions outweigh mistakes by a factor of 2.3:1. A majority of the mistake cost growth is due to errors in the estimation of production costs. A majority of the decision cost growth is due to schedule slippage. Low cost systems have 2.4 times as much mistake cost growth as high cost systems. Newer missile systems have significantly less mistake cost growth when compared to other systems. Lastly, the Army and Navy have approximately equal cost growth on their newer systems. Cost.
Download or read book Analysis of Cost Growth and Its Caused in Major Weapon System Acquisitions written by Donald Olson Dellis and published by . This book was released on 1972 with total page 222 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book An Analysis of Cost Growth in the Defense Department Major Weapon System Procurement Process to Promote Effective Control written by Marshall Andre Isler and published by . This book was released on 1971 with total page 202 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Sources of Weapon System Cost Growth written by Robert S. Leonard Joseph G. Bolten (Mark V. Arena, Obaid Younossi, Jerry M. Sollinger) and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 117 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This analysis uses data from Selected Acquisition Reports to determine the causes of cost growth in 35 mature major defense acquisition programs. Four major sources of growth are identified: (1) errors in estimation and scheduling, (2) decisions by the go.
Download or read book Is Weapon System Cost Growth Getting Better Or Worse written by Project Air Force (U.S.) and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 1 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This research brief summarizes an analysis of cost-growth trends and their contributing factors in completed and ongoing U.S. Department of Defense weapon system programs, presenting recommendations to better manage and predict cost growth.
Download or read book Weapons System Sustainment Planning Early in the Development Life Cycle written by National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2020-07-16 with total page 99 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: According to the Government Accountability Office, sustainment of weapon systems accounts for approximately 70 percent of the total life-cycle costs. When sustainment is not considered early in the development process or as an integral part of the systems engineering design, it can negatively affect the ability of the Air Force to maintain and improve the weapon system once it enters service. At the request of the Assistant Secretary of the Air Force for Acquisition, Technology, and Logistics, Weapons Systems Sustainment Planning Early in the Development Life Cycle identifies at what point or phase of the development of a weapons system sustainment planning should be integrated into the program; examines and provides recommendations regarding how sustainment planning should be evaluated throughout the development process; investigates and describes the current challenges with sustainment planning and determines what changes have occurred throughout the acquisition process that may have eroded sustainment planning; and identifies opportunities for acquisitions offices to gain greater access to sustainment expertise.
Download or read book An Analysis of Missile Systems Cost Growth and Implementation of Acquisition Reform Initiatives Using a Hybrid Adjusted Cost Growth Model written by Christopher C. Abate and published by . This book was released on 2004-03-01 with total page 136 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This thesis examined cost growth in Department of Defense (DoD) missile systems from 1991 to 2001 using Selected Acquisition Report (SAR) data with a hybrid adjusted cost growth (ACG) model. In addition, an analysis of acquisition reform initiatives during the treatment period was conducted to determine if reform efforts impacted missile system cost growth. A pre-reform (1 January 1991 to 31 December 1996) period and post reform (1 January 1997 to 31 December 2001) period was subjectively developed to compare the mean annual ACG during each period for statistical differences. The hybrid ACG model outlined in this thesis may aid program managers and other interested parties in determining weapon systems cost growth, and the conclusion drawn from analyzing current acquisition initiatives may assist DoD leadership in assessing reform effectiveness on reducing cost growth. This research effort analyzed 135 SARs for 21 missile systems that reported a Milestone II baseline during the treatment period. Adjusted Cost Growth (ACG) calculations revealed that missile systems from 1 January 1991 to 31 December 2001 averaged 28 percent cost growth annually. The acquisition reform analysis included 76 SARs from 20 programs during the pre-reform period and 59 SARs from 13 programs in the post-reform period. A small sample t-test was used to compare the annual means of the two periods and revealed that at a 0.05 significance level, the annual average ACG for the post-reform period was higher than the annual average ACG of the pre- reform period.
