Download or read book Aggregate Effects in Local Labor Markets of Supply and Demand Shocks written by Timothy J. Bartik and published by . This book was released on 1999 with total page 96 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Based on state-level labour market data from the Outgoing Rotation Group of the Current Population Survey from 1979 to 1997, discusses the wage and displacement effects of supply and demand shocks.

Download or read book The Dynamic Effects of Local Labor Market Shocks on Small Firms in The United States written by Mr. Philip Barrett and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2024-03-22 with total page 51 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We use payroll data on over 1 million workers at 80,000 small firms to construct county-month measures of employment, hours, and wages that correct for dynamic changes in sample composition in response to business cycle fluctuations. We use this to estimate the response of small firms' employment, hours and wages following tighter local labor market conditions. We find that employment and hours per worker fall and wages rise. This is consistent with the predictions of the response to a demand shock in the well-known “jobs ladder” model of labor markets. To check this interpretation, we show our results hold when instrumenting for local demand using county-level Department of Defense contract spending. Correction for dynamic sample bias is important -- without it, the hours fall by only one third as much and wages increase by double.

Download or read book How Effects of Local Labor Demand Shocks Vary with Local Labor Market Conditions written by Timothy J. Bartik and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 52 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper estimates how effects of shocks to local labor demand on local labor market outcomes vary with initial local economic conditions. The data are on U.S. metro areas from 1979 to 2011. The paper finds that demand shocks to local job growth have greater effects in reducing local unemployment rates if the local economy is initially depressed than if the local economy is booming. Demand shocks have greater effects on local wage rates if the local unemployment rate is initially low, but lesser effects if local job growth is initially high. These different effects of local demand shocks imply that social benefits of adding jobs are two to three times greater per job in more depressed local labor markets, compared to more booming local labor markets.

Download or read book Aggregate Demand Idle Time and Unemployment written by Pascal Michaillat and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper develops a model of unemployment fluctuations. The model keeps the architecture of the general-disequilibrium model of Barro and Grossman (1971) but takes a matching approach to the labor and product markets instead of a disequilibrium approach. On the product and labor markets, both price and tightness adjust to equalize supply and demand. Since there are two equilibrium variables but only one equilibrium condition on each market, a price mechanism is needed to select an equilibrium. We focus on two polar mechanisms: fixed prices and competitive prices. When prices are fixed, aggregate demand affects unemployment: with a higher aggregate demand, firms find more customers; this reduces the idle time of their employees and thus increases their labor demand; and this reduces unemployment. We combine the predictions of the model and empirical measures of product market tightness, labor market tightness, output, and employment to assess the sources of labor market fluctuations in the US. First, we find that the product market and labor market tightnesses fluctuate a lot, which implies that the fixed-price equilibrium describes the data better than the competitive-price equilibrium. Next, we find that labor market tightness and employment are positively correlated, which suggests that labor market fluctuations are mostly due to labor demand shocks and not to labor supply or mismatch shocks. Last, we find that product market tightness and output are positively correlated, which suggests that the labor demand shocks mostly reflect aggregate demand shocks and not technology shocks.

Download or read book Regional Labor Market Adjustments in the United States written by Mai Dao and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-11-25 with total page 51 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We examine patterns of regional adjustments to shocks in the US during the past four decades. We find that the response of interstate migration to relative labor market conditions has decreased, while the role of the unemployment rate as absorber of regional shocks has increased. However, the response of net migration to regional shocks is stronger during aggregate downturns and increased particularly during the Great Recession. We offer a potential explanation for the cyclical pattern of migration response based on the variation in consumption risk sharing.

Download or read book Redistribution of Local Labor Market Shocks Through Firms Internal Networks written by Xavier Giroud and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Local labor market shocks are difficult to insure against. Using confidential micro data from the U.S. Census Bureau's Longitudinal Business Database, we document that firms redistribute the employment impacts of local demand shocks across regions through their internal networks of establishments. During the Great Recession, the massive decline in house prices caused a sharp drop in consumer demand, leading to large employment losses in the non-tradable sector. Consistent with firms smoothing out the impacts of these shocks across regions, we find large elasticities of non-tradable establishment-level employment with respect to house prices in other counties in which the firm has establishments. At the same time, establishments of firms with larger regional networks exhibit lower employment elasticities with respect to local house prices in the establishment's own county. To account for general equilibrium adjustments, we aggregate non-tradable employment at the county level. Similar to what we found at the establishment level, we find that non-tradable county-level employment responds strongly to local demand shocks in other counties linked through firms' internal networks. These results are not driven by direct demand spillovers from nearby counties, common shocks to house prices, or local demand shocks affecting non-tradable employment in distant counties indirectly via the trade channel. Our results suggest that firms play an important role in the extent to which local labor market risks are shared across regions.

Download or read book Hysteresis in Labor Markets Evidence from Professional Long Term Forecasts written by Mr.John C Bluedorn and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-05-23 with total page 22 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We explore the long-term impact of economic booms on labor market outcomes using a novel approach based on revisions to professional forecasts over the past 30 years for 34 advanced economies. We find that when employment rises unexpectedly, forecasters typically raise their long-term forecasts of employment by more than one-for-one and also expect a strong rise in labor force participation, suggesting more persistent effects than is traditionally assumed. Economic booms associated with changes in aggregate demand, when inflation is rising and unemployment falling unexpectedly, also come with persistent long-term effects on expected employment and labor force participation, suggesting positive hysteresis. Our forecast evaluation tests indicate that forecasters are, on average, unbiased in their assessment of these positive, persistent effects.

Download or read book Wage and Employment Adjustment in Local Labor Markets written by Randall W. Eberts and published by W. E. Upjohn Institute. This book was released on 1992 with total page 172 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Analyses the adjustment patterns of regional labour markets to changing demand between 1973 and 1987.

Download or read book Handbook of Labor Economics written by Orley Ashenfelter and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 1999-11-18 with total page 800 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A guide to the continually evolving field of labour economics.

Download or read book How Long run Effects of Local Demand Shocks on Employment Rates Vary with Local Labor Market Distress written by Timothy J. Bartik and published by . This book was released on 2021 with total page 31 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper estimates that long-run changes in a county’s prime-age employment rate are significantly affected by labor demand shocks to both the county and its overlying commuting zone (CZ). The overall benefits of labor demand shocks are due more to CZ demand shocks than county demand shocks. A lower preexisting county employment rate increases the effects of CZ demand shocks. Simulations suggest that low prior employment rate CZs, versus higher-rate CZs, will have much larger employment rate effects from demand shocks. Targeting jobs at more distressed counties within a CZ has modest effects, much lower than the effects of targeting jobs at more distressed CZs.

Download or read book Labor Markets and Business Cycles written by Robert Shimer and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2010-04-12 with total page 192 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Labor Markets and Business Cycles integrates search and matching theory with the neoclassical growth model to better understand labor market outcomes. Robert Shimer shows analytically and quantitatively that rigid wages are important for explaining the volatile behavior of the unemployment rate in business cycles. The book focuses on the labor wedge that arises when the marginal rate of substitution between consumption and leisure does not equal the marginal product of labor. According to competitive models of the labor market, the labor wedge should be constant and equal to the labor income tax rate. But in U.S. data, the wedge is strongly countercyclical, making it seem as if recessions are periods when workers are dissuaded from working and firms are dissuaded from hiring because of an increase in the labor income tax rate. When job searches are time consuming and wages are flexible, search frictions--the cost of a job search--act like labor adjustment costs, further exacerbating inconsistencies between the competitive model and data. The book shows that wage rigidities can reconcile the search model with the data, providing a quantitatively more accurate depiction of labor markets, consumption, and investment dynamics. Developing detailed search and matching models, Labor Markets and Business Cycles will be the main reference for those interested in the intersection of labor market dynamics and business cycle research.

Download or read book Essays on the Economics of Local Labor Markets written by Matt Notowidigdo and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page 226 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This thesis studies the economics of local labor markets. There are three chapters in the thesis, and each chapter studies how economic outcomes are affected by local labor market conditions. The first chapter studies the incidence of local labor demand shocks. This chapter starts from the observation that low-skill workers are comparatively immobile. When labor demand slumps in a city, college-educated workers tend to relocate whereas non college workers are disproportionately likely to remain to face declining wages and employment. A standard explanation of these facts is that mobility is more costly for low-skill workers. This chapter proposes and tests an alternative explanation, which is that the incidence of adverse shocks is borne in large part by (falling) real estate rental prices and (rising) social transfers. These factors reduce the real cost of living differentially for low-income workers and thus compensate them, in part or in full, for declining labor demand. I develop a spatial equilibrium model which, appropriately parameterized, identifies both the magnitude of unobserved mobility costs by skill and the shape of the local housing supply curve. Nonlinear reduced form estimates using U.S. Census data document that positive labor demand shocks increase population more than negative shocks reduce population, that this asymmetry is larger for lows kill workers, and that such an asymmetry is absent for wages, housing values, and rental prices. Estimates of the full model using a nonlinear, simultaneous equations GMM estimator suggest that (1) the asymmetric population response is primarily accounted for by an asymmetric housing supply curve, (2) the differential migration response by skill is primarily accounted for by transfer payments, and (3) estimated mobility costs are at most modest and are comparable for high-skill and low-skill workers, suggesting that the primary explanation for the comparative immobility of low-skilled workers is not higher mobility costs per se, but rather a lower incidence of adverse labor demand shocks. The second chapter, written jointly with Daron Acemoglu and Amy Finkelstein, studies how local area health spending responds to permanent changes in local area income. This chapter is motivated by the fact that health expenditures as a share of GDP have more than tripled over the last half century, and a common conjecture is that this is primarily a consequence of rising real per capita income, which more than doubled over the same period. We investigate this hypothesis empirically by instrumenting for local area income with time-series variation in global oil prices between 1970 and 1990 interacted with cross-sectional variation in the oil reserves across different areas of the Southern United States. This strategy enables us to capture both the partial equilibrium and the local general equilibrium effects of an increase in income on health expenditures. Our central estimate is an income elasticity of 0.7, with an elasticity of 1.1 as the upper end of the 95 percent confidence interval. Point estimates from alternative specifications fall on both sides of our central estimate, but are almost always less than 1. We also present evidence suggesting that there are unlikely to be substantial national or global general equilibrium effects of rising income on health spending, for example through induced innovation. Our overall reading of the evidence is that rising income is unlikely to be a major driver of the rising health share of GDP. The third chapter, written jointly with Kory Kroft, studies theoretically and empirically how optimal Unemployment Insurance (UI) benefits vary with local labor market conditions. Theoretically, we derive the relationship between the moral hazard cost of UI and the unemployment rate in a standard search model. The model motivates our empirical strategy which tests whether the effect of UI benefits on unemployment durations varies with the local unemployment rate. In our preferred specification, a one standard deviation increase in the local unemployment rate reduces the magnitude of the duration elasticity by 32%. Using this estimate to calibrate the optimal level of UI benefits, we find that a one standard deviation increase in the unemployment rate leads to a 6.4 percentage point increase in the optimal replacement rate. JEL classification: J61, 110, J65.

Download or read book Macroeconomic Shocks and Local Labor Market Outcomes in the Short and Long Run written by Gaetano Basso and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This dissertation analyzes how local labor markets respond to macroeconomic shocks, such as changes in the global price of commodities or international migration flows, based on their predetermined characteristics. I further investigate how short-run elasticities of employment, population and earnings to such economic shocks differ from the long-run ones. Last, I analyze which econometrics methods are best suited to estimate such responses over time. Chapter 1 analyzes how resource-rich local labor markets adjust to large swings in the global price of natural resources. I provide a novel dynamic analysis of the consequences of natural resource price cycles by measuring the economic performance of oil-rich areas in the U.S. over three decades (1970-2000). I find that the consequences of booms are different from the consequences of busts. Oil-rich economies adjust quickly to the new long-run equilibrium during booms by increasing local employment, nominal wages and income from capital. Migration responses are limited, which is consistent with the small real wage gains that occur because of contemporaneous large increases in local prices. The negative impact of a bust is borne locally through higher nonemployment and exacerbated by a large reduction in human capital investments observed during the preceding boom. The adverse long-run effects of boom-bust cycles mainly depress the lower end of the income distribution. Chapter 2, joint with Giovanni Peri, analyzes important correlations between immigration and labor market outcomes of native workers in the US. Using data on local labor markets, states and regions we first look at simple correlations and then we use regression analysis with an increasing number of controls for observed and unobserved factors. We review the potential methods to separate the part of this correlation that captures the causal link from immigrants to native labor outcomes and we show estimates obtained with 2SLS method using the popular shift-share instrument. One fact emerging from all the specifications is that the net growth of immigrant labor has a zero to positive correlation with changes in native wages and native employment, in aggregate and by skill group. We review the literature on the channels and the mechanisms that allow local economies to absorb immigrants with no negative (and possibly positive) impact on the labor demand for natives. Finally, Chapter 3 analyzes the identification of treatment effects delayed in time. Applied economists are increasingly interested in recovering the causal effect of a treatment over time, although the methods they use often ignore that outcomes and regressors may have internal propagation dynamics. Typical applications include geographic unit-by-time panel data in nonexperimental settings, such those analyzed in Chapters 1 and 2. In those contexts the elasticities of labor market outcomes to macro shocks in the short run may differ substantially from those in the long run. This chapter illustrates by means of two simple Monte Carlo simulations that traditional regression methods fail to recover such delayed effects. I find that distributed lags models in panel settings are substantially biased unless under trivial conditions with no internal propagation dynamics in both outcomes and regressors. In contrast, local projections methods perform significantly better. Most importantly, they can easily accommodate Arellano and Bond (1991) instruments thus reducing the bias further even in the presence of lagged dependent variables.

Download or read book Labor Market Adjustments in the Pacific Basin written by Peter Chinloy and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 270 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Peter T. Chinloy and Ernst W. Stromsdorfer I. Background to Adjustments in Labor Markets The book examines the process of adjustment in labor markets across countries arising from external shocks and shifts in international competi tiveness. The examination of specific countries and their data permits a comparison of alternative institutions for compensating and redeploying labor. Four countries are involved, whose labor markets are both competi tive and complementary: Canada, Japan, Mexico, and the United States. Both public labor market institutions, such as direct government com~ pensation of displaced workers and the effect of unemployment insurance, and private market arrangements, such as em loyer-employee agreements on layoffs, the work contract, and severance pay, are considered. Compara tive examination across countries of labor market and related insitutions is thus possible. The book has a common theme, namely the adjustment of labor markets to exogenous shocks, particularly those externally induced. The unifying focus in on workers whose specific skills in an industry or firm render them relatively immobile.

Download or read book The Economic and Fiscal Consequences of Immigration written by National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2017-07-13 with total page 643 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Economic and Fiscal Consequences of Immigration finds that the long-term impact of immigration on the wages and employment of native-born workers overall is very small, and that any negative impacts are most likely to be found for prior immigrants or native-born high school dropouts. First-generation immigrants are more costly to governments than are the native-born, but the second generation are among the strongest fiscal and economic contributors in the U.S. This report concludes that immigration has an overall positive impact on long-run economic growth in the U.S. More than 40 million people living in the United States were born in other countries, and almost an equal number have at least one foreign-born parent. Together, the first generation (foreign-born) and second generation (children of the foreign-born) comprise almost one in four Americans. It comes as little surprise, then, that many U.S. residents view immigration as a major policy issue facing the nation. Not only does immigration affect the environment in which everyone lives, learns, and works, but it also interacts with nearly every policy area of concern, from jobs and the economy, education, and health care, to federal, state, and local government budgets. The changing patterns of immigration and the evolving consequences for American society, institutions, and the economy continue to fuel public policy debate that plays out at the national, state, and local levels. The Economic and Fiscal Consequences of Immigration assesses the impact of dynamic immigration processes on economic and fiscal outcomes for the United States, a major destination of world population movements. This report will be a fundamental resource for policy makers and law makers at the federal, state, and local levels but extends to the general public, nongovernmental organizations, the business community, educational institutions, and the research community.

Download or read book Human Capital in History written by Leah Platt Boustan and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2014-11-05 with total page 419 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume honours the contributions Claudia Goldin has made to scholarship and teaching in economic history and labour economics. The chapters address some closely integrated issues: the role of human capital in the long-term development of the American economy, trends in fertility and marriage, and women's participation in economic change.

Download or read book Immigration Economics written by George J. Borjas and published by Harvard University Press. This book was released on 2014-06-09 with total page 295 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Millions of people—nearly 3 percent of the world’s population—no longer live in the country where they were born. Every day, migrants enter not only the United States but also developed countries without much of a history of immigration. Some of these nations have switched in a short span of time from being the source of immigrants to being a destination for them. International migration is today a central subject of research in modern labor economics, which seeks to put into perspective and explain this historic demographic transformation. Immigration Economics synthesizes the theories, models, and econometric methods used to identify the causes and consequences of international labor flows. Economist George Borjas lays out with clarity and rigor a full spectrum of topics, including migrant worker selection and assimilation, the impact of immigration on labor markets and worker wages, and the economic benefits and losses that result from immigration. Two important themes emerge: First, immigration has distributional consequences: some people gain, but some people lose. Second, immigrants are rational economic agents who attempt to do the best they can with the resources they have, and the same holds true for native workers of the countries that receive migrants. This straightforward behavioral proposition, Borjas argues, has crucial implications for how economists and policymakers should frame contemporary debates over immigration.