Download or read book Advances in Markov Switching Models written by James D. Hamilton and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-06-29 with total page 267 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is a collection of state-of-the-art papers on the properties of business cycles and financial analysis. The individual contributions cover new advances in Markov-switching models with applications to business cycle research and finance. The introduction surveys the existing methods and new results of the last decade. Individual chapters study features of the U. S. and European business cycles with particular focus on the role of monetary policy, oil shocks and co movements among key variables. The short-run versus long-run consequences of an economic recession are also discussed. Another area that is featured is an extensive analysis of currency crises and the possibility of bubbles or fads in stock prices. A concluding chapter offers useful new results on testing for this kind of regime-switching behaviour. Overall, the book provides a state-of-the-art over view of new directions in methods and results for estimation and inference based on the use of Markov-switching time-series analysis. A special feature of the book is that it includes an illustration of a wide range of applications based on a common methodology. It is expected that the theme of the book will be of particular interest to the macroeconomics readers as well as econometrics professionals, scholars and graduate students. We wish to express our gratitude to the authors for their strong contributions and the reviewers for their assistance and careful attention to detail in their reports.
Download or read book Finite Mixture and Markov Switching Models written by Sylvia Frühwirth-Schnatter and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2006-11-24 with total page 506 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The past decade has seen powerful new computational tools for modeling which combine a Bayesian approach with recent Monte simulation techniques based on Markov chains. This book is the first to offer a systematic presentation of the Bayesian perspective of finite mixture modelling. The book is designed to show finite mixture and Markov switching models are formulated, what structures they imply on the data, their potential uses, and how they are estimated. Presenting its concepts informally without sacrificing mathematical correctness, it will serve a wide readership including statisticians as well as biologists, economists, engineers, financial and market researchers.
Download or read book State space Models with Regime Switching written by Chang-Jin Kim and published by Mit Press. This book was released on 1999 with total page 297 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Both state-space models and Markov switching models have been highly productive paths for empirical research in macroeconomics and finance. This book presents recent advances in econometric methods that make feasible the estimation of models that have both features. One approach, in the classical framework, approximates the likelihood function; the other, in the Bayesian framework, uses Gibbs-sampling to simulate posterior distributions from data.The authors present numerous applications of these approaches in detail: decomposition of time series into trend and cycle, a new index of coincident economic indicators, approaches to modeling monetary policy uncertainty, Friedman's "plucking" model of recessions, the detection of turning points in the business cycle and the question of whether booms and recessions are duration-dependent, state-space models with heteroskedastic disturbances, fads and crashes in financial markets, long-run real exchange rates, and mean reversion in asset returns.
Download or read book Macroeconometrics and Time Series Analysis written by Steven Durlauf and published by Springer. This book was released on 2016-04-30 with total page 417 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Specially selected from The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics 2nd edition, each article within this compendium covers the fundamental themes within the discipline and is written by a leading practitioner in the field. A handy reference tool.
Download or read book Analytical Derivatives for Markov Switching Models written by Jeff Gable and published by . This book was released on 1995 with total page 24 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Multifractal Volatility written by Laurent E. Calvet and published by Academic Press. This book was released on 2008-10-13 with total page 272 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Calvet and Fisher present a powerful, new technique for volatility forecasting that draws on insights from the use of multifractals in the natural sciences and mathematics and provides a unified treatment of the use of multifractal techniques in finance. A large existing literature (e.g., Engle, 1982; Rossi, 1995) models volatility as an average of past shocks, possibly with a noise component. This approach often has difficulty capturing sharp discontinuities and large changes in financial volatility. Their research has shown the advantages of modelling volatility as subject to abrupt regime changes of heterogeneous durations. Using the intuition that some economic phenomena are long-lasting while others are more transient, they permit regimes to have varying degrees of persistence. By drawing on insights from the use of multifractals in the natural sciences and mathematics, they show how to construct high-dimensional regime-switching models that are easy to estimate, and substantially outperform some of the best traditional forecasting models such as GARCH. The goal of Multifractal Volatility is to popularize the approach by presenting these exciting new developments to a wider audience. They emphasize both theoretical and empirical applications, beginning with a style that is easily accessible and intuitive in early chapters, and extending to the most rigorous continuous-time and equilibrium pricing formulations in final chapters. Presents a powerful new technique for forecasting volatility Leads the reader intuitively from existing volatility techniques to the frontier of research in this field by top scholars at major universities The first comprehensive book on multifractal techniques in finance, a cutting-edge field of research
Download or read book Advances in Data Analysis Data Handling and Business Intelligence written by Andreas Fink and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2009-10-14 with total page 767 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Data Analysis, Data Handling and Business Intelligence are research areas at the intersection of computer science, artificial intelligence, mathematics, and statistics. They cover general methods and techniques that can be applied to a vast set of applications such as in marketing, finance, economics, engineering, linguistics, archaeology, musicology, medical science, and biology. This volume contains the revised versions of selected papers presented during the 32nd Annual Conference of the German Classification Society (Gesellschaft für Klassifikation, GfKl). The conference, which was organized in cooperation with the British Classification Society (BCS) and the Dutch/Flemish Classification Society (VOC), was hosted by Helmut-Schmidt-University, Hamburg, Germany, in July 2008.
Download or read book State Space Models with Regime Switching written by Chang-Jin Kim and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2017-11-03 with total page 312 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Both state-space models and Markov switching models have been highly productive paths for empirical research in macroeconomics and finance. This book presents recent advances in econometric methods that make feasible the estimation of models that have both features. One approach, in the classical framework, approximates the likelihood function; the other, in the Bayesian framework, uses Gibbs-sampling to simulate posterior distributions from data. The authors present numerous applications of these approaches in detail: decomposition of time series into trend and cycle, a new index of coincident economic indicators, approaches to modeling monetary policy uncertainty, Friedman's "plucking" model of recessions, the detection of turning points in the business cycle and the question of whether booms and recessions are duration-dependent, state-space models with heteroskedastic disturbances, fads and crashes in financial markets, long-run real exchange rates, and mean reversion in asset returns.
Download or read book Markov Switching Vector Autoregressions written by Hans-Martin Krolzig and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-06-29 with total page 369 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book contributes to re cent developments on the statistical analysis of multiple time series in the presence of regime shifts. Markov-switching models have become popular for modelling non-linearities and regime shifts, mainly, in univariate eco nomic time series. This study is intended to provide a systematic and operational ap proach to the econometric modelling of dynamic systems subject to shifts in regime, based on the Markov-switching vector autoregressive model. The study presents a comprehensive analysis of the theoretical properties of Markov-switching vector autoregressive processes and the related statistical methods. The statistical concepts are illustrated with applications to empirical business cyde research. This monograph is a revised version of my dissertation which has been accepted by the Economics Department of the Humboldt-University of Berlin in 1996. It con sists mainly of unpublished material which has been presented during the last years at conferences and in seminars. The major parts of this study were written while I was supported by the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschajt (DFG), Berliner Graduier tenkolleg Angewandte Mikroökonomik and Sondeiforschungsbereich 373 at the Free University and Humboldt-University of Berlin. Work was finally completed in the project The Econometrics of Macroeconomic Forecasting founded by the Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC) at the Institute of Economies and Statistics, University of Oxford. It is a pleasure to record my thanks to these institutions for their support of my research embodied in this study.
Download or read book Incorporating Vintage Differences and Forecasts Into Markov Switching Models written by Jeremy Nalewaik and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 70 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Hidden Markov Models for Time Series written by Walter Zucchini and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2017-12-19 with total page 370 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Hidden Markov Models for Time Series: An Introduction Using R, Second Edition illustrates the great flexibility of hidden Markov models (HMMs) as general-purpose models for time series data. The book provides a broad understanding of the models and their uses. After presenting the basic model formulation, the book covers estimation, forecasting, decoding, prediction, model selection, and Bayesian inference for HMMs. Through examples and applications, the authors describe how to extend and generalize the basic model so that it can be applied in a rich variety of situations. The book demonstrates how HMMs can be applied to a wide range of types of time series: continuous-valued, circular, multivariate, binary, bounded and unbounded counts, and categorical observations. It also discusses how to employ the freely available computing environment R to carry out the computations. Features Presents an accessible overview of HMMs Explores a variety of applications in ecology, finance, epidemiology, climatology, and sociology Includes numerous theoretical and programming exercises Provides most of the analysed data sets online New to the second edition A total of five chapters on extensions, including HMMs for longitudinal data, hidden semi-Markov models and models with continuous-valued state process New case studies on animal movement, rainfall occurrence and capture-recapture data
Download or read book Stochastic Processes Finance And Control A Festschrift In Honor Of Robert J Elliott written by Samuel N Cohen and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2012-08-10 with total page 605 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book consists of a series of new, peer-reviewed papers in stochastic processes, analysis, filtering and control, with particular emphasis on mathematical finance, actuarial science and engineering. Paper contributors include colleagues, collaborators and former students of Robert Elliott, many of whom are world-leading experts and have made fundamental and significant contributions to these areas.This book provides new important insights and results by eminent researchers in the considered areas, which will be of interest to researchers and practitioners. The topics considered will be diverse in applications, and will provide contemporary approaches to the problems considered. The areas considered are rapidly evolving. This volume will contribute to their development, and present the current state-of-the-art stochastic processes, analysis, filtering and control.Contributing authors include: H Albrecher, T Bielecki, F Dufour, M Jeanblanc, I Karatzas, H-H Kuo, A Melnikov, E Platen, G Yin, Q Zhang, C Chiarella, W Fleming, D Madan, R Mamon, J Yan, V Krishnamurthy.
Download or read book Modeling and Estimation of Synchronization in Multistate Markov switching Models written by Cem Cakmakli and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Complex Systems in Finance and Econometrics written by Robert A. Meyers and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2010-11-03 with total page 919 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Finance, Econometrics and System Dynamics presents an overview of the concepts and tools for analyzing complex systems in a wide range of fields. The text integrates complexity with deterministic equations and concepts from real world examples, and appeals to a broad audience.
Download or read book Nonlinear Time Series Analysis written by Ruey S. Tsay and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2018-09-14 with total page 512 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A comprehensive resource that draws a balance between theory and applications of nonlinear time series analysis Nonlinear Time Series Analysis offers an important guide to both parametric and nonparametric methods, nonlinear state-space models, and Bayesian as well as classical approaches to nonlinear time series analysis. The authors—noted experts in the field—explore the advantages and limitations of the nonlinear models and methods and review the improvements upon linear time series models. The need for this book is based on the recent developments in nonlinear time series analysis, statistical learning, dynamic systems and advanced computational methods. Parametric and nonparametric methods and nonlinear and non-Gaussian state space models provide a much wider range of tools for time series analysis. In addition, advances in computing and data collection have made available large data sets and high-frequency data. These new data make it not only feasible, but also necessary to take into consideration the nonlinearity embedded in most real-world time series. This vital guide: • Offers research developed by leading scholars of time series analysis • Presents R commands making it possible to reproduce all the analyses included in the text • Contains real-world examples throughout the book • Recommends exercises to test understanding of material presented • Includes an instructor solutions manual and companion website Written for students, researchers, and practitioners who are interested in exploring nonlinearity in time series, Nonlinear Time Series Analysis offers a comprehensive text that explores the advantages and limitations of the nonlinear models and methods and demonstrates the improvements upon linear time series models.
Download or read book Advances in Econometrics Operational Research Data Science and Actuarial Studies written by M. Kenan Terzioğlu and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2022-01-17 with total page 607 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume presents techniques and theories drawn from mathematics, statistics, computer science, and information science to analyze problems in business, economics, finance, insurance, and related fields. The authors present proposals for solutions to common problems in related fields. To this end, they are showing the use of mathematical, statistical, and actuarial modeling, and concepts from data science to construct and apply appropriate models with real-life data, and employ the design and implementation of computer algorithms to evaluate decision-making processes. This book is unique as it associates data science - data-scientists coming from different backgrounds - with some basic and advanced concepts and tools used in econometrics, operational research, and actuarial sciences. It, therefore, is a must-read for scholars, students, and practitioners interested in a better understanding of the techniques and theories of these fields.
Download or read book Explicit Duration Markov Switching Models written by Silvia Chiappa and published by Now Pub. This book was released on 2014-12-19 with total page 102 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Provides a simple and clear description of explicit duration modeling. The presentation focuses on making distinctions that help structure the space of models and in laying out inference and learning in a clear way. It is an ideal reference for students and researchers wishing to learn about these models and those looking to develop them further.
