Download or read book Risk Analysis in Theory and Practice written by Jean-Paul Chavas and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2004-07-01 with total page 257 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The objective of Risk Analysis in Theory and Practice is to present this analytical framework and to illustrate how it can be used in the investigation of economic decisions under risk. In a sense, the economics of risk is a difficult subject: it involves understanding human decisions in the absence of perfect information. How do we make decisions when we do not know some of events affecting us? The complexities of our uncertain world and of how humans obtain and process information make this difficult. In spite of these difficulties, much progress has been made. First, probability theory is the corner stone of risk assessment. This allows us to measure risk in a fashion that can be communicated among decision makers or researchers. Second, risk preferences are now better understood. This provides useful insights into the economic rationality of decision making under uncertainty. Third, over the last decades, good insights have been developed about the value of information. This helps better understand the role of information in human decision making and this book provides a systematic treatment of these issues in the context of both private and public decisions under uncertainty. - Balanced treatment of conceptual models and applied analysis - Considers both private and public decisions under uncertainty - Website presents application exercises in Excel

Download or read book Advanced Risk Analysis in Engineering Enterprise Systems written by Cesar Ariel Pinto and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2016-04-19 with total page 451 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Since the emerging discipline of engineering enterprise systems extends traditional systems engineering to develop webs of systems and systems-of-systems, the engineering management and management science communities need new approaches for analyzing and managing risk in engineering enterprise systems. Advanced Risk Analysis in Engineering Enterpri

Download or read book Practical Risk Theory for Actuaries written by C.D. Daykin and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 1993-12-01 with total page 572 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This classic textbook covers all aspects of risk theory in a practical way. It builds on from the late R.E. Beard's extremely popular book Risk Theory, but features more emphasis on simulation and modeling and on the use of risk theory as a practical tool. Practical Risk Theory is a textbook for practicing and student actuaries on the practical aspects of stochastic modeling of the insurance business. It has its roots in the classical theory of risk but introduces many new elements that are important in managing the insurance business but are usually ignored in the classical theory. The authors avoid overcomplicated mathematics and provide an abundance of diagrams.

Download or read book Modern Actuarial Risk Theory written by Rob Kaas and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2008-12-03 with total page 394 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Modern Actuarial Risk Theory contains what every actuary needs to know about non-life insurance mathematics. It starts with the standard material like utility theory, individual and collective model and basic ruin theory. Other topics are risk measures and premium principles, bonus-malus systems, ordering of risks and credibility theory. It also contains some chapters about Generalized Linear Models, applied to rating and IBNR problems. As to the level of the mathematics, the book would fit in a bachelors or masters program in quantitative economics or mathematical statistics. This second and.

Download or read book Risk and Insurance written by Søren Asmussen and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2020-04-17 with total page 505 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This textbook provides a broad overview of the present state of insurance mathematics and some related topics in risk management, financial mathematics and probability. Both non-life and life aspects are covered. The emphasis is on probability and modeling rather than statistics and practical implementation. Aimed at the graduate level, pointing in part to current research topics, it can potentially replace other textbooks on basic non-life insurance mathematics and advanced risk management methods in non-life insurance. Based on chapters selected according to the particular topics in mind, the book may serve as a source for introductory courses to insurance mathematics for non-specialists, advanced courses for actuarial students, or courses on probabilistic aspects of risk. It will also be useful for practitioners and students/researchers in related areas such as finance and statistics who wish to get an overview of the general area of mathematical modeling and analysis in insurance.

Download or read book Rating Based Modeling of Credit Risk written by Stefan Trueck and published by Academic Press. This book was released on 2009-01-15 with total page 279 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In the last decade rating-based models have become very popular in credit risk management. These systems use the rating of a company as the decisive variable to evaluate the default risk of a bond or loan. The popularity is due to the straightforwardness of the approach, and to the upcoming new capital accord (Basel II), which allows banks to base their capital requirements on internal as well as external rating systems. Because of this, sophisticated credit risk models are being developed or demanded by banks to assess the risk of their credit portfolio better by recognizing the different underlying sources of risk. As a consequence, not only default probabilities for certain rating categories but also the probabilities of moving from one rating state to another are important issues in such models for risk management and pricing. It is widely accepted that rating migrations and default probabilities show significant variations through time due to macroeconomics conditions or the business cycle. These changes in migration behavior may have a substantial impact on the value-at-risk (VAR) of a credit portfolio or the prices of credit derivatives such as collateralized debt obligations (D+CDOs). In Rating Based Modeling of Credit Risk the authors develop a much more sophisticated analysis of migration behavior. Their contribution of more sophisticated techniques to measure and forecast changes in migration behavior as well as determining adequate estimators for transition matrices is a major contribution to rating based credit modeling. Internal ratings-based systems are widely used in banks to calculate their value-at-risk (VAR) in order to determine their capital requirements for loan and bond portfolios under Basel II One aspect of these ratings systems is credit migrations, addressed in a systematic and comprehensive way for the first time in this book The book is based on in-depth work by Trueck and Rachev

Download or read book Actuarial Theory for Dependent Risks written by Michel Denuit and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2006-05-01 with total page 458 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The increasing complexity of insurance and reinsurance products has seen a growing interest amongst actuaries in the modelling of dependent risks. For efficient risk management, actuaries need to be able to answer fundamental questions such as: Is the correlation structure dangerous? And, if yes, to what extent? Therefore tools to quantify, compare, and model the strength of dependence between different risks are vital. Combining coverage of stochastic order and risk measure theories with the basics of risk management and stochastic dependence, this book provides an essential guide to managing modern financial risk. * Describes how to model risks in incomplete markets, emphasising insurance risks. * Explains how to measure and compare the danger of risks, model their interactions, and measure the strength of their association. * Examines the type of dependence induced by GLM-based credibility models, the bounds on functions of dependent risks, and probabilistic distances between actuarial models. * Detailed presentation of risk measures, stochastic orderings, copula models, dependence concepts and dependence orderings. * Includes numerous exercises allowing a cementing of the concepts by all levels of readers. * Solutions to tasks as well as further examples and exercises can be found on a supporting website. An invaluable reference for both academics and practitioners alike, Actuarial Theory for Dependent Risks will appeal to all those eager to master the up-to-date modelling tools for dependent risks. The inclusion of exercises and practical examples makes the book suitable for advanced courses on risk management in incomplete markets. Traders looking for practical advice on insurance markets will also find much of interest.

Download or read book Risk and the Theory of Security Risk Assessment written by Carl S. Young and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2020-01-28 with total page 286 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book provides the conceptual foundation of security risk assessment and thereby enables reasoning about risk from first principles. It presents the underlying theory that is the basis of a rigorous and universally applicable security risk assessment methodology. Furthermore, the book identifies and explores concepts with profound operational implications that have traditionally been sources of ambiguity if not confusion in security risk management. Notably, the text provides a simple quantitative model for complexity, a significant driver of risk that is typically not addressed in security-related contexts. Risk and The Theory of Security Risk Assessment is a primer of security risk assessment pedagogy, but it also provides methods and metrics to actually estimate the magnitude of security risk. Concepts are explained using numerous examples, which are at times both enlightening and entertaining. As a result, the book bridges a longstanding gap between theory and practice, and therefore will be a useful reference to students, academics and security practitioners.

Download or read book Risk Assessment written by Marvin Rausand and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2020-03-31 with total page 784 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Introduces risk assessment with key theories, proven methods, and state-of-the-art applications Risk Assessment: Theory, Methods, and Applications remains one of the few textbooks to address current risk analysis and risk assessment with an emphasis on the possibility of sudden, major accidents across various areas of practice—from machinery and manufacturing processes to nuclear power plants and transportation systems. Updated to align with ISO 31000 and other amended standards, this all-new 2nd Edition discusses the main ideas and techniques for assessing risk today. The book begins with an introduction of risk analysis, assessment, and management, and includes a new section on the history of risk analysis. It covers hazards and threats, how to measure and evaluate risk, and risk management. It also adds new sections on risk governance and risk-informed decision making; combining accident theories and criteria for evaluating data sources; and subjective probabilities. The risk assessment process is covered, as are how to establish context; planning and preparing; and identification, analysis, and evaluation of risk. Risk Assessment also offers new coverage of safe job analysis and semi-quantitative methods, and it discusses barrier management and HRA methods for offshore application. Finally, it looks at dynamic risk analysis, security and life-cycle use of risk. Serves as a practical and modern guide to the current applications of risk analysis and assessment, supports key standards, and supplements legislation related to risk analysis Updated and revised to align with ISO 31000 Risk Management and other new standards and includes new chapters on security, dynamic risk analysis, as well as life-cycle use of risk analysis Provides in-depth coverage on hazard identification, methodologically outlining the steps for use of checklists, conducting preliminary hazard analysis, and job safety analysis Presents new coverage on the history of risk analysis, criteria for evaluating data sources, risk-informed decision making, subjective probabilities, semi-quantitative methods, and barrier management Contains more applications and examples, new and revised problems throughout, and detailed appendices that outline key terms and acronyms Supplemented with a book companion website containing Solutions to problems, presentation material and an Instructor Manual Risk Assessment: Theory, Methods, and Applications, Second Edition is ideal for courses on risk analysis/risk assessment and systems engineering at the upper-undergraduate and graduate levels. It is also an excellent reference and resource for engineers, researchers, consultants, and practitioners who carry out risk assessment techniques in their everyday work.

Download or read book Financial Risk Forecasting written by Jon Danielsson and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2011-04-20 with total page 307 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Financial Risk Forecasting is a complete introduction to practical quantitative risk management, with a focus on market risk. Derived from the authors teaching notes and years spent training practitioners in risk management techniques, it brings together the three key disciplines of finance, statistics and modeling (programming), to provide a thorough grounding in risk management techniques. Written by renowned risk expert Jon Danielsson, the book begins with an introduction to financial markets and market prices, volatility clusters, fat tails and nonlinear dependence. It then goes on to present volatility forecasting with both univatiate and multivatiate methods, discussing the various methods used by industry, with a special focus on the GARCH family of models. The evaluation of the quality of forecasts is discussed in detail. Next, the main concepts in risk and models to forecast risk are discussed, especially volatility, value-at-risk and expected shortfall. The focus is both on risk in basic assets such as stocks and foreign exchange, but also calculations of risk in bonds and options, with analytical methods such as delta-normal VaR and duration-normal VaR and Monte Carlo simulation. The book then moves on to the evaluation of risk models with methods like backtesting, followed by a discussion on stress testing. The book concludes by focussing on the forecasting of risk in very large and uncommon events with extreme value theory and considering the underlying assumptions behind almost every risk model in practical use – that risk is exogenous – and what happens when those assumptions are violated. Every method presented brings together theoretical discussion and derivation of key equations and a discussion of issues in practical implementation. Each method is implemented in both MATLAB and R, two of the most commonly used mathematical programming languages for risk forecasting with which the reader can implement the models illustrated in the book. The book includes four appendices. The first introduces basic concepts in statistics and financial time series referred to throughout the book. The second and third introduce R and MATLAB, providing a discussion of the basic implementation of the software packages. And the final looks at the concept of maximum likelihood, especially issues in implementation and testing. The book is accompanied by a website - www.financialriskforecasting.com – which features downloadable code as used in the book.

Download or read book Modern Actuarial Risk Theory written by Rob Kaas and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2008-08-17 with total page 394 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Modern Actuarial Risk Theory contains what every actuary needs to know about non-life insurance mathematics. It starts with the standard material like utility theory, individual and collective model and basic ruin theory. Other topics are risk measures and premium principles, bonus-malus systems, ordering of risks and credibility theory. It also contains some chapters about Generalized Linear Models, applied to rating and IBNR problems. As to the level of the mathematics, the book would fit in a bachelors or masters program in quantitative economics or mathematical statistics. This second and much expanded edition emphasizes the implementation of these techniques through the use of R. This free but incredibly powerful software is rapidly developing into the de facto standard for statistical computation, not just in academic circles but also in practice. With R, one can do simulations, find maximum likelihood estimators, compute distributions by inverting transforms, and much more.

Download or read book Risk Theory A Heavy Tail Approach written by Dimitrios George Konstantinides and published by #N/A. This book was released on 2017-07-07 with total page 507 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: 'Heavy-tailed risk modelling plays a central role in modern risk theory; within this perspective, the book provides an excellent guide concerning problems and solutions in risk theory.'zbMATHThis book is written to help graduate students and young researchers to enter quickly into the subject of Risk Theory. It can also be used by actuaries and financial practitioners for the optimization of their decisions and further by regulatory authorities for the stabilization of the insurance industry. The topic of extreme claims is especially presented as a crucial feature of the modern ruin probability.

Download or read book Advanced Risk Metrics written by William Johnson and published by HiTeX Press. This book was released on 2024-10-13 with total page 484 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "Advanced Risk Metrics: Quantitative Approaches to Financial Risk Management" is a definitive guide crafted for both aspiring finance professionals and seasoned practitioners seeking to deepen their understanding of risk in the modern financial landscape. This comprehensive volume explores the fundamental and advanced methodologies utilized in identifying, quantifying, and managing financial risks. By bridging the gap between theoretical concepts and real-world applications, the book elucidates a structured approach to risk management, focusing on financial markets' dynamic intricacies. From the foundational aspects of probability theory and statistical methods to the sophisticated applications of machine learning in risk assessment, each chapter unfolds a well-rounded perspective on contemporary risk management strategies. Readers will gain insight into key areas, including market risk techniques, credit risk modeling, operational risk frameworks, and the importance of regulatory compliance. With emphasis on emerging risks and cutting-edge technologies like algorithmic trading and derivatives, this book equips readers with the tools necessary to navigate the complexities of financial markets effectively. By engaging with these expertly articulated insights, readers will be well-prepared to harness risk as a strategic advantage in their financial pursuits.

Download or read book Advanced Asset Pricing Theory written by Chenghu Ma and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2011 with total page 818 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book provides a broad introduction to modern asset pricing theory. The theory is self-contained and unified in presentation. Both the no-arbitrage and the general equilibrium approaches of asset pricing theory are treated coherently within the general equilibrium framework. It fills a gap in the body of literature on asset pricing for being both advanced and comprehensive. The absence of arbitrage opportunities represents a necessary condition for equilibrium in the financial markets. However, the absence of arbitrage is not a sufficient condition for establishing equilibrium. These interrelationships are overlooked by the proponents of the no-arbitrage approach to asset pricing.This book also tackles recent advancement on inversion problems raised in asset pricing theory, which include the information role of financial options and the information content of term structure of interest rates and interest rates contingent claims.The inclusion of the proofs and derivations to enhance the transparency of the underlying arguments and conditions for the validity of the economic theory made it an ideal advanced textbook or reference book for graduate students specializing in financial economics and quantitative finance. The detailed explanations will capture the interest of the curious reader, and it is complete enough to provide the necessary background material needed to delve deeper into the subject and explore the research literature.Postgraduate students in economics with a good grasp of calculus, linear algebra, and probability and statistics will find themselves ready to tackle topics covered in this book. They will certainly benefit from the mathematical coverage in stochastic processes and stochastic differential equation with applications in finance. Postgraduate students in financial mathematics and financial engineering will also benefit, not only from the mathematical tools introduced in this book, but also from the economic ideas underpinning the economic modeling of financial markets.Both these groups of postgraduate students will learn the economic issues involved in financial modeling. The book can be used as an advanced text for Masters and PhD students in all subjects of financial economics, financial mathematics, mathematical finance, and financial engineering. It is also an ideal reference for practitioners and researchers in the subjects.

Download or read book Possibility Theory and the Risk written by Irina Georgescu and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-01-13 with total page 130 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The book deals with some of the fundamental issues of risk assessment in grid computing environments. The book describes the development of a hybrid probabilistic and possibilistic model for assessing the success of a computing task in a grid environment

Download or read book Portfolio Theory and Risk Management written by Maciej J. Capiński and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2014-08-07 with total page 171 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: With its emphasis on examples, exercises and calculations, this book suits advanced undergraduates as well as postgraduates and practitioners. It provides a clear treatment of the scope and limitations of mean-variance portfolio theory and introduces popular modern risk measures. Proofs are given in detail, assuming only modest mathematical background, but with attention to clarity and rigour. The discussion of VaR and its more robust generalizations, such as AVaR, brings recent developments in risk measures within range of some undergraduate courses and includes a novel discussion of reducing VaR and AVaR by means of hedging techniques. A moderate pace, careful motivation and more than 70 exercises give students confidence in handling risk assessments in modern finance. Solutions and additional materials for instructors are available at www.cambridge.org/9781107003675.

Download or read book Non Life Insurance Linked Securities Risk and Pricing Analysis written by Thomas Nowak and published by VVW GmbH. This book was released on 2014-09-25 with total page 316 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Unter Insurance-Linked Securities (ILS) versteht man innovative Finanzprodukte, welche Versicherungsrisiken aus den eng abgegrenzten Märkten der Erst- und Rückversicherungswirtschaft herauslösen und mittels Verbriefung auf Kapitalmärkten handelbar machen. Durch ILS erhalten Investoren die Möglichkeit, für die Bereitstellung von Deckungskapital in Versicherungsrisiken zu investieren und im Gegenzug eine Versicherungsprämie zu erhalten. Hierbei verfolgt das Werk zwei Ziele. Zum Einen, die Durchführung einer genauen Analyse der zugrunde liegenden Zahlungsströme, der beworbenen Eigenschaften und jener Risiken, welche mit einer Investition in ILS verbunden sind. Zum Anderen, die Überprüfung der Anwendbarkeit und Passgenauigkeit vorgeschlagener versicherungsmathematischer und marktorientierter Bewertungsverfahren für ILS sowie die Unterbreitung möglicher Vorschläge für Bewertungsverfahren. Da ILS regelmäßig dazu verwendet werden Extremrisiken zu verbriefen, werden beide Untersuchungen unter expliziter Berücksichtigung der statistischen Eigenschaften von Extremrisiken durchgeführt. Im Ergebnis lässt sich festhalten, dass ILS Investitionen mit eigenen Spezifika darstellen. Investoren sollten diese kennen und berücksichtigen. Dies gilt gerade vor dem Hintergrund der stetig steigenden Zahl von ILS, welche insbesondere in den Zeiten der Niedrigzinsphase als attraktives Investment gesehen werden. Das Buch richtet sich an Investoren und Interessierte, die sich über ILS als Investitionen und deren Bewertung informieren möchten.