Download or read book Adaptive Estimation of Autoregression Models with Time Varying Variances written by Ke-Li Xu and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 31 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Stable autoregressive models of known finite order are considered with martingale differences errors scaled by an unknown nonparametric time-varying function generating heterogeneity. An important special case involves structural change in the error variance, but in most practical cases the pattern of variance change over time is unknown and may involve shifts at unknown discrete points in time, continuous evolution or combinations of the two. This paper develops kernel-based estimators of the residual variances and associated adaptive least squares (ALS) estimators of the autoregressive coefficients. These are shown to be asymptotically efficient, having the same limit distribution as the infeasible generalized least squares (GLS). Comparisons of the efficient procedure and the ordinary least squares (OLS) reveal that least squares can be extremely inefficient in some cases while nearly optimal in others. Simulations show that, when least squares work well, the adaptive estimators perform comparably well, whereas when least squares work poorly, major efficiency gains are achieved by the new estimators.
Download or read book Adaptive Estimation of Autoregressive Models with Time Varying Variances written by Ke-Li Xu and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 31 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Stable autoregressive models of known finite order are considered with martingale differences errors scaled by an unknown nonparametric time-varying function generating heterogeneity. An important special case involves structural change in the error variance, but in most practical cases the pattern of variance change over time is unknown and may involve shifts at unknown discrete points in time, continuous evolution or combinations of the two. This paper develops kernel-based estimators of the residual variances and associated adaptive least squares (ALS) estimators of the autoregressive coefficients. These are shown to be asymptotically efficient, having the same limit distribution as the infeasible generalized least squares (GLS). Comparisons of the efficient procedure and ordinary least squares (OLS) reveal that least squares can be extremely inefficient in some cases while nearly optimal in others. Simulations show that, when least squares work well, the adaptive estimators perform comparably well, whereas when least squares work poorly, major efficiency gains are achieved by the new estimators.
Download or read book Adaptive Estimation in Time Series Regression Models written by Douglas Gardiner Steigerwald and published by . This book was released on 1989 with total page 180 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Analytical Methods in Statistics written by Matúš Maciak and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2020-07-19 with total page 159 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book collects peer-reviewed contributions on modern statistical methods and topics, stemming from the third workshop on Analytical Methods in Statistics, AMISTAT 2019, held in Liberec, Czech Republic, on September 16-19, 2019. Real-life problems demand statistical solutions, which in turn require new and profound mathematical methods. As such, the book is not only a collection of solved problems but also a source of new methods and their practical extensions. The authoritative contributions focus on analytical methods in statistics, asymptotics, estimation and Fisher information, robustness, stochastic models and inequalities, and other related fields; further, they address e.g. average autoregression quantiles, neural networks, weighted empirical minimum distance estimators, implied volatility surface estimation, the Grenander estimator, non-Gaussian component analysis, meta learning, and high-dimensional errors-in-variables models.
Download or read book Statistical Tools for Finance and Insurance written by Pavel Cizek and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2011-03-18 with total page 410 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Statistical Tools for Finance and Insurance presents ready-to-use solutions, theoretical developments and method construction for many practical problems in quantitative finance and insurance. Written by practitioners and leading academics in the field, this book offers a unique combination of topics from which every market analyst and risk manager will benefit. Features of the significantly enlarged and revised second edition: Offers insight into new methods and the applicability of the stochastic technology Provides the tools, instruments and (online) algorithms for recent techniques in quantitative finance and modern treatments in insurance calculations Covers topics such as - expected shortfall for heavy tailed and mixture distributions* - pricing of variance swaps* - volatility smile calibration in FX markets - pricing of catastrophe bonds and temperature derivatives* - building loss models and ruin probability approximation - insurance pricing with GLM* - equity linked retirement plans*(new topics in the second edition marked with*) Presents extensive examples
Download or read book Economic Modeling Using Artificial Intelligence Methods written by Tshilidzi Marwala and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-04-02 with total page 271 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Economic Modeling Using Artificial Intelligence Methods examines the application of artificial intelligence methods to model economic data. Traditionally, economic modeling has been modeled in the linear domain where the principles of superposition are valid. The application of artificial intelligence for economic modeling allows for a flexible multi-order non-linear modeling. In addition, game theory has largely been applied in economic modeling. However, the inherent limitation of game theory when dealing with many player games encourages the use of multi-agent systems for modeling economic phenomena. The artificial intelligence techniques used to model economic data include: multi-layer perceptron neural networks radial basis functions support vector machines rough sets genetic algorithm particle swarm optimization simulated annealing multi-agent system incremental learning fuzzy networks Signal processing techniques are explored to analyze economic data, and these techniques are the time domain methods, time-frequency domain methods and fractals dimension approaches. Interesting economic problems such as causality versus correlation, simulating the stock market, modeling and controling inflation, option pricing, modeling economic growth as well as portfolio optimization are examined. The relationship between economic dependency and interstate conflict is explored, and knowledge on how economics is useful to foster peace – and vice versa – is investigated. Economic Modeling Using Artificial Intelligence Methods deals with the issue of causality in the non-linear domain and applies the automatic relevance determination, the evidence framework, Bayesian approach and Granger causality to understand causality and correlation. Economic Modeling Using Artificial Intelligence Methods makes an important contribution to the area of econometrics, and is a valuable source of reference for graduate students, researchers and financial practitioners.
Download or read book Probability Theory and Mathematical Statistics written by B. Grigelionis and published by Walter de Gruyter GmbH & Co KG. This book was released on 2020-05-18 with total page 752 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: No detailed description available for "Probability Theory and Mathematical Statistics".
Download or read book Adaptive Pointwise Estimation in Time inhomogeneous Time series Models written by P. Čižek and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Time Series Analysis Methods and Applications written by and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2012-05-18 with total page 777 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The field of statistics not only affects all areas of scientific activity, but also many other matters such as public policy. It is branching rapidly into so many different subjects that a series of handbooks is the only way of comprehensively presenting the various aspects of statistical methodology, applications, and recent developments.The Handbook of Statistics is a series of self-contained reference books. Each volume is devoted to a particular topic in statistics, with Volume 30 dealing with time series. The series is addressed to the entire community of statisticians and scientists in various disciplines who use statistical methodology in their work. At the same time, special emphasis is placed on applications-oriented techniques, with the applied statistician in mind as the primary audience. Comprehensively presents the various aspects of statistical methodology Discusses a wide variety of diverse applications and recent developments Contributors are internationally renowened experts in their respective areas
Download or read book NUREG CR written by U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission and published by . This book was released on 1980 with total page 60 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Random Coefficient Autoregressive Models An Introduction written by D.F. Nicholls and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 160 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this monograph we have considered a class of autoregressive models whose coefficients are random. The models have special appeal among the non-linear models so far considered in the statistical literature, in that their analysis is quite tractable. It has been possible to find conditions for stationarity and stability, to derive estimates of the unknown parameters, to establish asymptotic properties of these estimates and to obtain tests of certain hypotheses of interest. We are grateful to many colleagues in both Departments of Statistics at the Australian National University and in the Department of Mathematics at the University of Wo110ngong. Their constructive criticism has aided in the presentation of this monograph. We would also like to thank Dr M. A. Ward of the Department of Mathematics, Australian National University whose program produced, after minor modifications, the "three dimensional" graphs of the log-likelihood functions which appear on pages 83-86. Finally we would like to thank J. Radley, H. Patrikka and D. Hewson for their contributions towards the typing of a difficult manuscript. IV CONTENTS CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION 1. 1 Introduction 1 Appendix 1. 1 11 Appendix 1. 2 14 CHAPTER 2 STATIONARITY AND STABILITY 15 2. 1 Introduction 15 2. 2 Singly-Infinite Stationarity 16 2. 3 Doubly-Infinite Stationarity 19 2. 4 The Case of a Unit Eigenvalue 31 2. 5 Stability of RCA Models 33 2. 6 Strict Stationarity 37 Appendix 2. 1 38 CHAPTER 3 LEAST SQUARES ESTIMATION OF SCALAR MODELS 40 3.
Download or read book Stochastic Control written by N.K. Sinha and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2014-05-23 with total page 533 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Stochastic control, the control of random processes, has become increasingly more important to the systems analyst and engineer. The Second IFAC Symposium on Stochastic Control represents current thinking on all aspects of stochastic control, both theoretical and practical, and as such represents a further advance in the understanding of such systems.
Download or read book Complex Systems in Finance and Econometrics written by Robert A. Meyers and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2010-11-03 with total page 919 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Finance, Econometrics and System Dynamics presents an overview of the concepts and tools for analyzing complex systems in a wide range of fields. The text integrates complexity with deterministic equations and concepts from real world examples, and appeals to a broad audience.
Download or read book Vector Autoregressions with Parsimoniously Time Varying Parameters and an Application to Monetary Policy written by Laurent Callot and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Adaptive Estimation in Time series Models written by Feike C. Drost and published by . This book was released on 1994 with total page 48 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Modeling Time Varying Unconditional Variance by Means of a Free Knot Spline GARCH Model written by Oliver Old and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2022-07-27 with total page 260 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The book addresses the problem of a time-varying unconditional variance of return processes utilizing a spline function. The knots of the spline functions are estimated as free parameters within a joined estimation process together with the parameters of the mean, the conditional variance and the spline function. With the help of this method, the knots are placed in regions where the unconditional variance is not smooth. The results are tested within an extensive simulation study and an empirical study employing the S&P500 index.
Download or read book On Adaptive Tail Index Estimation for Financial Return Models written by Niklas F. Wagner and published by . This book was released on 2000 with total page 36 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
