Download or read book Adaptive Dynamic Programming for High dimensional Multicollinear State Spaces written by Bancha Ariyajunya and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Dynamic programming (DP) is a mathematical programming method for optimizing a system changing over time and has been used to solve multi-stage optimization problems in manufacturing systems, environmental engineering, and many other fields. Exact solutions are only possible for small problems or under very limiting restrictions, but computationally practical approximate DP methods now exist. Most continuous-state problems require discretization of the state space. A design and analysis of computer experiments (DACE) approach for approximate DP uses experimental design and statistical modeling to approximate the value function in continuous-state problems. However, ideal experimental designs are orthogonal, and when the state variables are correlated, ideal experimental designs will not appropriately represent the state space. In this dissertation, the Atlanta ozone pollution problem, which is known for having a multicollinear state space, is selected as our case study. For complex applications like air quality, the state transitions are not given as closed form equations. Rather, an advanced photochemical air quality, such as the Atlanta Urban Airshed Model (UAM), can represent state transitions. However, the UAM is computationally impractical to be used directly in DP. Therefore, in adaptive DP (ADP), statistical metamodels are developed to provide computationally practical surrogates for state transitions. In the dissertation, three types of state transition metamodels for the Atlanta UAM are developed and implemented in ADP. The first type ignores the inherent collinearity between ozone concentrations at different times and monitoring sites and constructs metamodels that have deliberately high variance inflation factors (VIFs). The second type addresses the multicollinearity using classical regression analysis techniques to yield low VIFs. Finally, the third type develops metamodels that orthogonalize the state space. Results are compared under the base case of the Atlanta case study and 50 random hypothetical scenarios.

Download or read book INFORMS Annual Meeting written by Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences. National Meeting and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 644 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Introduction to Machine Learning written by Ethem Alpaydin and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2014-08-22 with total page 639 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Introduction -- Supervised learning -- Bayesian decision theory -- Parametric methods -- Multivariate methods -- Dimensionality reduction -- Clustering -- Nonparametric methods -- Decision trees -- Linear discrimination -- Multilayer perceptrons -- Local models -- Kernel machines -- Graphical models -- Brief contents -- Hidden markov models -- Bayesian estimation -- Combining multiple learners -- Reinforcement learning -- Design and analysis of machine learning experiments.

Download or read book Dissertation Abstracts International written by and published by . This book was released on 1981 with total page 616 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Principles of Data Mining written by David J. Hand and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2001-08-17 with total page 594 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The first truly interdisciplinary text on data mining, blending the contributions of information science, computer science, and statistics. The growing interest in data mining is motivated by a common problem across disciplines: how does one store, access, model, and ultimately describe and understand very large data sets? Historically, different aspects of data mining have been addressed independently by different disciplines. This is the first truly interdisciplinary text on data mining, blending the contributions of information science, computer science, and statistics. The book consists of three sections. The first, foundations, provides a tutorial overview of the principles underlying data mining algorithms and their application. The presentation emphasizes intuition rather than rigor. The second section, data mining algorithms, shows how algorithms are constructed to solve specific problems in a principled manner. The algorithms covered include trees and rules for classification and regression, association rules, belief networks, classical statistical models, nonlinear models such as neural networks, and local "memory-based" models. The third section shows how all of the preceding analysis fits together when applied to real-world data mining problems. Topics include the role of metadata, how to handle missing data, and data preprocessing.

Download or read book Interpretable Machine Learning written by Christoph Molnar and published by Lulu.com. This book was released on 2020 with total page 320 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is about making machine learning models and their decisions interpretable. After exploring the concepts of interpretability, you will learn about simple, interpretable models such as decision trees, decision rules and linear regression. Later chapters focus on general model-agnostic methods for interpreting black box models like feature importance and accumulated local effects and explaining individual predictions with Shapley values and LIME. All interpretation methods are explained in depth and discussed critically. How do they work under the hood? What are their strengths and weaknesses? How can their outputs be interpreted? This book will enable you to select and correctly apply the interpretation method that is most suitable for your machine learning project.

Download or read book Deterministic Artificial Intelligence written by Timothy Sands and published by BoD – Books on Demand. This book was released on 2020-05-27 with total page 180 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Kirchhoff’s laws give a mathematical description of electromechanics. Similarly, translational motion mechanics obey Newton’s laws, while rotational motion mechanics comply with Euler’s moment equations, a set of three nonlinear, coupled differential equations. Nonlinearities complicate the mathematical treatment of the seemingly simple action of rotating, and these complications lead to a robust lineage of research culminating here with a text on the ability to make rigid bodies in rotation become self-aware, and even learn. This book is meant for basic scientifically inclined readers commencing with a first chapter on the basics of stochastic artificial intelligence to bridge readers to very advanced topics of deterministic artificial intelligence, espoused in the book with applications to both electromechanics (e.g. the forced van der Pol equation) and also motion mechanics (i.e. Euler’s moment equations). The reader will learn how to bestow self-awareness and express optimal learning methods for the self-aware object (e.g. robot) that require no tuning and no interaction with humans for autonomous operation. The topics learned from reading this text will prepare students and faculty to investigate interesting problems of mechanics. It is the fondest hope of the editor and authors that readers enjoy the book.

Download or read book Statistical Rethinking written by Richard McElreath and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2018-01-03 with total page 488 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Statistical Rethinking: A Bayesian Course with Examples in R and Stan builds readers’ knowledge of and confidence in statistical modeling. Reflecting the need for even minor programming in today’s model-based statistics, the book pushes readers to perform step-by-step calculations that are usually automated. This unique computational approach ensures that readers understand enough of the details to make reasonable choices and interpretations in their own modeling work. The text presents generalized linear multilevel models from a Bayesian perspective, relying on a simple logical interpretation of Bayesian probability and maximum entropy. It covers from the basics of regression to multilevel models. The author also discusses measurement error, missing data, and Gaussian process models for spatial and network autocorrelation. By using complete R code examples throughout, this book provides a practical foundation for performing statistical inference. Designed for both PhD students and seasoned professionals in the natural and social sciences, it prepares them for more advanced or specialized statistical modeling. Web Resource The book is accompanied by an R package (rethinking) that is available on the author’s website and GitHub. The two core functions (map and map2stan) of this package allow a variety of statistical models to be constructed from standard model formulas.

Download or read book Flexible Bayesian Regression Modelling written by Yanan Fan and published by Academic Press. This book was released on 2019-10-30 with total page 302 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Flexible Bayesian Regression Modeling is a step-by-step guide to the Bayesian revolution in regression modeling, for use in advanced econometric and statistical analysis where datasets are characterized by complexity, multiplicity, and large sample sizes, necessitating the need for considerable flexibility in modeling techniques. It reviews three forms of flexibility: methods which provide flexibility in their error distribution; methods which model non-central parts of the distribution (such as quantile regression); and finally models that allow the mean function to be flexible (such as spline models). Each chapter discusses the key aspects of fitting a regression model. R programs accompany the methods. This book is particularly relevant to non-specialist practitioners with intermediate mathematical training seeking to apply Bayesian approaches in economics, biology, finance, engineering and medicine. Introduces powerful new nonparametric Bayesian regression techniques to classically trained practitioners Focuses on approaches offering both superior power and methodological flexibility Supplemented with instructive and relevant R programs within the text Covers linear regression, nonlinear regression and quantile regression techniques Provides diverse disciplinary case studies for correlation and optimization problems drawn from Bayesian analysis ‘in the wild’

Download or read book Accelerating Monte Carlo methods for Bayesian inference in dynamical models written by Johan Dahlin and published by Linköping University Electronic Press. This book was released on 2016-03-22 with total page 139 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Making decisions and predictions from noisy observations are two important and challenging problems in many areas of society. Some examples of applications are recommendation systems for online shopping and streaming services, connecting genes with certain diseases and modelling climate change. In this thesis, we make use of Bayesian statistics to construct probabilistic models given prior information and historical data, which can be used for decision support and predictions. The main obstacle with this approach is that it often results in mathematical problems lacking analytical solutions. To cope with this, we make use of statistical simulation algorithms known as Monte Carlo methods to approximate the intractable solution. These methods enjoy well-understood statistical properties but are often computational prohibitive to employ. The main contribution of this thesis is the exploration of different strategies for accelerating inference methods based on sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). That is, strategies for reducing the computational effort while keeping or improving the accuracy. A major part of the thesis is devoted to proposing such strategies for the MCMC method known as the particle Metropolis-Hastings (PMH) algorithm. We investigate two strategies: (i) introducing estimates of the gradient and Hessian of the target to better tailor the algorithm to the problem and (ii) introducing a positive correlation between the point-wise estimates of the target. Furthermore, we propose an algorithm based on the combination of SMC and Gaussian process optimisation, which can provide reasonable estimates of the posterior but with a significant decrease in computational effort compared with PMH. Moreover, we explore the use of sparseness priors for approximate inference in over-parametrised mixed effects models and autoregressive processes. This can potentially be a practical strategy for inference in the big data era. Finally, we propose a general method for increasing the accuracy of the parameter estimates in non-linear state space models by applying a designed input signal. Borde Riksbanken höja eller sänka reporäntan vid sitt nästa möte för att nå inflationsmålet? Vilka gener är förknippade med en viss sjukdom? Hur kan Netflix och Spotify veta vilka filmer och vilken musik som jag vill lyssna på härnäst? Dessa tre problem är exempel på frågor där statistiska modeller kan vara användbara för att ge hjälp och underlag för beslut. Statistiska modeller kombinerar teoretisk kunskap om exempelvis det svenska ekonomiska systemet med historisk data för att ge prognoser av framtida skeenden. Dessa prognoser kan sedan användas för att utvärdera exempelvis vad som skulle hända med inflationen i Sverige om arbetslösheten sjunker eller hur värdet på mitt pensionssparande förändras när Stockholmsbörsen rasar. Tillämpningar som dessa och många andra gör statistiska modeller viktiga för många delar av samhället. Ett sätt att ta fram statistiska modeller bygger på att kontinuerligt uppdatera en modell allteftersom mer information samlas in. Detta angreppssätt kallas för Bayesiansk statistik och är särskilt användbart när man sedan tidigare har bra insikter i modellen eller tillgång till endast lite historisk data för att bygga modellen. En nackdel med Bayesiansk statistik är att de beräkningar som krävs för att uppdatera modellen med den nya informationen ofta är mycket komplicerade. I sådana situationer kan man istället simulera utfallet från miljontals varianter av modellen och sedan jämföra dessa mot de historiska observationerna som finns till hands. Man kan sedan medelvärdesbilda över de varianter som gav bäst resultat för att på så sätt ta fram en slutlig modell. Det kan därför ibland ta dagar eller veckor för att ta fram en modell. Problemet blir särskilt stort när man använder mer avancerade modeller som skulle kunna ge bättre prognoser men som tar för lång tid för att bygga. I denna avhandling använder vi ett antal olika strategier för att underlätta eller förbättra dessa simuleringar. Vi föreslår exempelvis att ta hänsyn till fler insikter om systemet och därmed minska antalet varianter av modellen som behöver undersökas. Vi kan således redan utesluta vissa modeller eftersom vi har en bra uppfattning om ungefär hur en bra modell ska se ut. Vi kan också förändra simuleringen så att den enklare rör sig mellan olika typer av modeller. På detta sätt utforskas rymden av alla möjliga modeller på ett mer effektivt sätt. Vi föreslår ett antal olika kombinationer och förändringar av befintliga metoder för att snabba upp anpassningen av modellen till observationerna. Vi visar att beräkningstiden i vissa fall kan minska ifrån några dagar till någon timme. Förhoppningsvis kommer detta i framtiden leda till att man i praktiken kan använda mer avancerade modeller som i sin tur resulterar i bättre prognoser och beslut.

Download or read book Bayesian Networks written by Olivier Pourret and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2008-04-30 with total page 446 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Bayesian Networks, the result of the convergence of artificial intelligence with statistics, are growing in popularity. Their versatility and modelling power is now employed across a variety of fields for the purposes of analysis, simulation, prediction and diagnosis. This book provides a general introduction to Bayesian networks, defining and illustrating the basic concepts with pedagogical examples and twenty real-life case studies drawn from a range of fields including medicine, computing, natural sciences and engineering. Designed to help analysts, engineers, scientists and professionals taking part in complex decision processes to successfully implement Bayesian networks, this book equips readers with proven methods to generate, calibrate, evaluate and validate Bayesian networks. The book: Provides the tools to overcome common practical challenges such as the treatment of missing input data, interaction with experts and decision makers, determination of the optimal granularity and size of the model. Highlights the strengths of Bayesian networks whilst also presenting a discussion of their limitations. Compares Bayesian networks with other modelling techniques such as neural networks, fuzzy logic and fault trees. Describes, for ease of comparison, the main features of the major Bayesian network software packages: Netica, Hugin, Elvira and Discoverer, from the point of view of the user. Offers a historical perspective on the subject and analyses future directions for research. Written by leading experts with practical experience of applying Bayesian networks in finance, banking, medicine, robotics, civil engineering, geology, geography, genetics, forensic science, ecology, and industry, the book has much to offer both practitioners and researchers involved in statistical analysis or modelling in any of these fields.

Download or read book Data Science for Economics and Finance written by Sergio Consoli and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2021 with total page 357 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This open access book covers the use of data science, including advanced machine learning, big data analytics, Semantic Web technologies, natural language processing, social media analysis, time series analysis, among others, for applications in economics and finance. In addition, it shows some successful applications of advanced data science solutions used to extract new knowledge from data in order to improve economic forecasting models. The book starts with an introduction on the use of data science technologies in economics and finance and is followed by thirteen chapters showing success stories of the application of specific data science methodologies, touching on particular topics related to novel big data sources and technologies for economic analysis (e.g. social media and news); big data models leveraging on supervised/unsupervised (deep) machine learning; natural language processing to build economic and financial indicators; and forecasting and nowcasting of economic variables through time series analysis. This book is relevant to all stakeholders involved in digital and data-intensive research in economics and finance, helping them to understand the main opportunities and challenges, become familiar with the latest methodological findings, and learn how to use and evaluate the performances of novel tools and frameworks. It primarily targets data scientists and business analysts exploiting data science technologies, and it will also be a useful resource to research students in disciplines and courses related to these topics. Overall, readers will learn modern and effective data science solutions to create tangible innovations for economic and financial applications.

Download or read book Machine Learning Algorithms written by Giuseppe Bonaccorso and published by Packt Publishing Ltd. This book was released on 2017-07-24 with total page 352 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Build strong foundation for entering the world of Machine Learning and data science with the help of this comprehensive guide About This Book Get started in the field of Machine Learning with the help of this solid, concept-rich, yet highly practical guide. Your one-stop solution for everything that matters in mastering the whats and whys of Machine Learning algorithms and their implementation. Get a solid foundation for your entry into Machine Learning by strengthening your roots (algorithms) with this comprehensive guide. Who This Book Is For This book is for IT professionals who want to enter the field of data science and are very new to Machine Learning. Familiarity with languages such as R and Python will be invaluable here. What You Will Learn Acquaint yourself with important elements of Machine Learning Understand the feature selection and feature engineering process Assess performance and error trade-offs for Linear Regression Build a data model and understand how it works by using different types of algorithm Learn to tune the parameters of Support Vector machines Implement clusters to a dataset Explore the concept of Natural Processing Language and Recommendation Systems Create a ML architecture from scratch. In Detail As the amount of data continues to grow at an almost incomprehensible rate, being able to understand and process data is becoming a key differentiator for competitive organizations. Machine learning applications are everywhere, from self-driving cars, spam detection, document search, and trading strategies, to speech recognition. This makes machine learning well-suited to the present-day era of Big Data and Data Science. The main challenge is how to transform data into actionable knowledge. In this book you will learn all the important Machine Learning algorithms that are commonly used in the field of data science. These algorithms can be used for supervised as well as unsupervised learning, reinforcement learning, and semi-supervised learning. A few famous algorithms that are covered in this book are Linear regression, Logistic Regression, SVM, Naive Bayes, K-Means, Random Forest, TensorFlow, and Feature engineering. In this book you will also learn how these algorithms work and their practical implementation to resolve your problems. This book will also introduce you to the Natural Processing Language and Recommendation systems, which help you run multiple algorithms simultaneously. On completion of the book you will have mastered selecting Machine Learning algorithms for clustering, classification, or regression based on for your problem. Style and approach An easy-to-follow, step-by-step guide that will help you get to grips with real -world applications of Algorithms for Machine Learning.

Download or read book Applied Predictive Modeling written by Max Kuhn and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-05-17 with total page 595 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Applied Predictive Modeling covers the overall predictive modeling process, beginning with the crucial steps of data preprocessing, data splitting and foundations of model tuning. The text then provides intuitive explanations of numerous common and modern regression and classification techniques, always with an emphasis on illustrating and solving real data problems. The text illustrates all parts of the modeling process through many hands-on, real-life examples, and every chapter contains extensive R code for each step of the process. This multi-purpose text can be used as an introduction to predictive models and the overall modeling process, a practitioner’s reference handbook, or as a text for advanced undergraduate or graduate level predictive modeling courses. To that end, each chapter contains problem sets to help solidify the covered concepts and uses data available in the book’s R package. This text is intended for a broad audience as both an introduction to predictive models as well as a guide to applying them. Non-mathematical readers will appreciate the intuitive explanations of the techniques while an emphasis on problem-solving with real data across a wide variety of applications will aid practitioners who wish to extend their expertise. Readers should have knowledge of basic statistical ideas, such as correlation and linear regression analysis. While the text is biased against complex equations, a mathematical background is needed for advanced topics.

Download or read book Feature Extraction written by Isabelle Guyon and published by Springer. This book was released on 2008-11-16 with total page 765 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is both a reference for engineers and scientists and a teaching resource, featuring tutorial chapters and research papers on feature extraction. Until now there has been insufficient consideration of feature selection algorithms, no unified presentation of leading methods, and no systematic comparisons.

Download or read book Generalized Linear Models for Insurance Rating written by Mark Goldburd and published by . This book was released on 2016-06-08 with total page 106 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Orthogonal Arrays written by A.S. Hedayat and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 433 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Orthogonal arrays have played a vital role in improving the quality of products manufactured throughout the world. This first book on the subject since its introduction more than fifty years ago serves as a key resource to this area of designing experiments. Most of the arrays obtained by the methods in this book are available electronically. Anyone running experiments - whether in a chemistry lab or a manufacturing plant, or in agricultural or medical research - will find this book useful.