Download or read book A Time Varying Parameter Model to Test for Predictability and Integration in Stock Markets of Transition Economies written by Michael Rockinger and published by . This book was released on 2000 with total page 48 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book A Time Varying Parameter Model to Test for Predictability and Integration in Stock Markets of Transition Economics written by Michael Rockinger and published by . This book was released on 2000 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper introduces a model, based on the Kalman filter framework, which allows for latent factors, time varying parameters, and a general GARCH structure for the residuals, extending the Bekaert and Harvey (1997) model. With this extension it is possible to test if an emerging stock market becomes more efficient over time and more integrated with other already established markets. We apply this models to the Czech, Polish, Hungarian, and Russian stock markets. We use data at daily frequency running from April 7th 1994 to July 10th 1997. We show that those markets have a rather heterogeneous pattern with regard to seasonalities and exhibit significant asymmetric GARCH effects where bad news generate greater volatility. In Hungary good news, instead, generate greater volatility leads us to formulate a liquidity hypothesis. A latent factor captures macroeconomic expectations. Concerning predictability, measured with time varying autocorrelations, Hungary reached efficiency before 1994. Russia shows signs of ongoing convergence towards efficiency. For Poland and the Czech Republic we find no improvements. With regard to market integration there is evidence that the importance of Germany has changed over time for all markets. Shocks in the UK are positively related to the Czech and Polish market but neither with the Russian nor the Hungarian ones. Shocks in the US have no impact on these markets but Russia. A strong negative correlation between Russia and the US and Germany tends to disappear.

Download or read book Forecasting Volatility in the Financial Markets written by Stephen Satchell and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2011-02-24 with total page 428 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Forecasting Volatility in the Financial Markets, Third Edition assumes that the reader has a firm grounding in the key principles and methods of understanding volatility measurement and builds on that knowledge to detail cutting-edge modelling and forecasting techniques. It provides a survey of ways to measure risk and define the different models of volatility and return. Editors John Knight and Stephen Satchell have brought together an impressive array of contributors who present research from their area of specialization related to volatility forecasting. Readers with an understanding of volatility measures and risk management strategies will benefit from this collection of up-to-date chapters on the latest techniques in forecasting volatility. Chapters new to this third edition:* What good is a volatility model? Engle and Patton* Applications for portfolio variety Dan diBartolomeo* A comparison of the properties of realized variance for the FTSE 100 and FTSE 250 equity indices Rob Cornish* Volatility modeling and forecasting in finance Xiao and Aydemir* An investigation of the relative performance of GARCH models versus simple rules in forecasting volatility Thomas A. Silvey Leading thinkers present newest research on volatility forecasting International authors cover a broad array of subjects related to volatility forecasting Assumes basic knowledge of volatility, financial mathematics, and modelling

Download or read book Forecasting Volatility in the Financial Markets written by John L. Knight and published by Butterworth-Heinemann. This book was released on 2002 with total page 428 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This text assumes that the reader has a firm grounding in the key principles and methods of understanding volatility measurement and builds on that knowledge to detail cutting edge modeling and forecasting techniques. It then uses a technical survey to explain the different ways to measure risk and define the different models of volatility and return.

Download or read book Elements of Time Series Econometrics an Applied Approach written by Evžen Kočenda and published by Charles University in Prague, Karolinum Press. This book was released on 2015-12-01 with total page 220 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book presents the numerous tools for the econometric analysis of time series. The text is designed with emphasis on the practical application of theoretical tools. Accordingly, material is presented in a way that is easy to understand. In many cases intuitive explanation and understanding of the studied phenomena are offerd. Essential concepts are illustrated by clear-cut examples. The attention of readers is drawn to numerous applied works where the use of specific techniques is best illustrated. Such applications are chiefly connected with issues of recent economic transition and European integration. The outlined style of presentation makes the book also a rich source of references. The text is divided into five major sections. The first section, “The Nature of Time Series”, gives an introduction to time series analysis. The second section, “Difference Equations”, describes briefly the theory of difference equations with an emphasis on results that are important for time series econometrics. The third section, “Univariate Time Series”, presents the methods commonly used in univariate time series analysis, the analysis of time series of one single variable. The fourth section, “Multiple Time Series”, deals with time series models of multiple interrelated variables. The fifth section “Panel Data and Unit Root Tests”, deals with methods known as panel unit root tests that are relevant to issues of convergence. Appendices contain an introduction to simulation techniques and statistical tables. Kniha přináší soubor základních i pokročilých technik a postupů používaných v ekonometrické analýze časových řad. Kniha klade důraz na umožnění efektivního použití popsaných technik v aplikovaném ekonomickém výzkumu. Toho je dosaženo tím, že teoretické základy popsané ekonometrie jsou prezentovány spolu s intuitivním vysvětlením problematiky a jednotlivé techniky jsou ilustrovány na výsledcích současného výzkumu a to především v kontextu procesu nedávné ekonomické transformace a současné evropské integrace. Toto pojetí z knihy činí nejen učebnici v klasickém smyslu, ale také užitečný referenční zdroj neboť odkazy v knize spojují klasickou i moderní ekonometrickou literaturu se soudobými aplikacemi, na nichž je použití jednotlivých technik jasně pochopitelné. Mnohá použití vycházejí z bohaté předchozí práce autorů v oboru. Text knihy je rozdělen do pěti hlavních částí. První část, “The Nature of Time Series”, přináší úvod do analýzy časových řad a popis jejich nejdůležitějších charakteristik, vlastností a procesů. Druhá část, “Difference Equations”, stručně popisuje teorii diferenciálních rovnic s důrazem na aspekty, které jsou klíčové v ekonometrii časových řad. Třetí část, “Univariate Time Series”, poměrně rozsáhle popisuje techniky, které se používají při analýze jednotlivých časových řad bez jejich vzájemené interakce a zahrnuje jak lineární tak nelineární modelované struktury. Čtvrtá část, “Multiple Time Series”, popisuje modely které umožňují analýzu několika časových řad a jejich vzájemných interakcí. Pátá část “Panel Data and Unit Root Tests”, zahrnuje některé techniky postavené na panelových datech, jež k průřezovým datům přidávají časovou dimenzi a vztahují se k analýze konvergence. Závěr knihy je doplněn o úvod do simulační techniky a statistické tabulky

Download or read book Global Stock Market Integration written by Sabur Mollah and published by Springer. This book was released on 2016-02-10 with total page 172 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Stock market integration between developing and emerging markets has numerous benefits for creating a global - yet stable - world economy. It increases competition and the efficiency of local markets, in turn reducing price volatility and the cost of capital among integrated markets. It also generates capital flows, which enhance financial stability and spur economic growth. At its core, stock market integration has an important role to play in both developing and emerging markets still reeling from the global financial crisis. Global Stock Market Integration analyzes the financial makeup of developing and emerging markets around the world, providing empirical insights into market integration, co-movements in price, crises, and efficiency linkages. Mobarek and Mollah argue that the relationship between market integration and market efficiency within developing and emerging countries is not the only measure necessary for effecting real financial growth. This work brings the review of theories and empirical research on the topic up-to-date and expands the existing literature with new perspectives on developed and emerging markets.

Download or read book Money Banking and Financial Markets in Central and Eastern Europe written by R. Matousek and published by Springer. This book was released on 2015-12-04 with total page 299 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book provides a deep insight into the market changes and policy challenges that transition economies have undergone in the last twenty years. It not only comments on and evaluates the development of financial markets in transition economies, but also highlights the key obstacles to full integration of financial markets into the EU market.

Download or read book Exploring the Future of Russia s Economy and Markets written by Bruno S. Sergi and published by Emerald Group Publishing. This book was released on 2018-11-06 with total page 287 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Based on the 2017 conference "'New Reality' and Russian Markets" held at Harvard University, this book brings together world-renowned thinkers to offer the latest empirical research on recent financial risks, institutional policies, and financial stability.

Download or read book International Financial Contagion written by Stijn Claessens and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-04-17 with total page 461 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: No sooner had the Asian crisis broken out in 1997 than the witch-hunt started. With great indignation every Asian economy pointed fingers. They were innocent bystanders. The fundamental reason for the crisis was this or that - most prominently contagion - but also the decline in exports of the new commodities (high-tech goods), the steep rise of the dollar, speculators, etc. The prominent question, of course, is whether contagion could really have been the key factor and, if so, what are the channels and mechanisms through which it operated in such a powerful manner. The question is obvious because until 1997, Asia's economies were generally believed to be immensely successful, stable and well managed. This question is of great importance not only in understanding just what happened, but also in shaping policies. In a world of pure contagion, i.e. when innocent bystanders are caught up and trampled by events not of their making and when consequences go far beyond ordinary international shocks, countries will need to look for better protective policies in the future. In such a world, the international financial system will need to change in order to offer better preventive and reactive policy measures to help avoid, or at least contain, financial crises.

Download or read book Recent Advances In Financial Engineering 2011 Proceedings Of The International Workshop On Finance 2011 written by Akihiko Takahashi and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2012-05-21 with total page 231 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is the Proceedings of the International Workshop on Finance 2011, held in Kyoto in the summer of 2011 with the aim of exchanging new ideas in financial engineering among researchers from various countries from both academia and industry. The workshop was held as a successor to the Daiwa International Workshop (2004-2008), and the KIER-TMU International Workshop (2009-2010). This workshop was organized by the Center for Advanced Research in Finance (CARF), Graduate School of Economics, the University of Tokyo, and Graduate School of Social Sciences, Tokyo Metropolitan University — and co-organized by Life Risk Research Center, Doshisha University.The workshop serves as a bridge between academic researchers and practitioners. This book contains about fifteen papers, all refereed, representing the presentations at the workshop. The papers address state-of-the-art techniques in financial engineering.

Download or read book Multi moment Asset Allocation and Pricing Models written by Emmanuel Jurczenko and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2006-10-02 with total page 258 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: While mainstream financial theories and applications assume that asset returns are normally distributed and individual preferences are quadratic, the overwhelming empirical evidence shows otherwise. Indeed, most of the asset returns exhibit “fat-tails” distributions and investors exhibit asymmetric preferences. These empirical findings lead to the development of a new area of research dedicated to the introduction of higher order moments in portfolio theory and asset pricing models. Multi-moment asset pricing is a revolutionary new way of modeling time series in finance which allows various degrees of long-term memory to be generated. It allows risk and prices of risk to vary through time enabling the accurate valuation of long-lived assets. This book presents the state-of-the art in multi-moment asset allocation and pricing models and provides many new developments in a single volume, collecting in a unified framework theoretical results and applications previously scattered throughout the financial literature. The topics covered in this comprehensive volume include: four-moment individual risk preferences, mathematics of the multi-moment efficient frontier, coherent asymmetric risks measures, hedge funds asset allocation under higher moments, time-varying specifications of (co)moments and multi-moment asset pricing models with homogeneous and heterogeneous agents. Written by leading academics, Multi-moment Asset Allocation and Pricing Models offers a unique opportunity to explore the latest findings in this new field of research.

Download or read book Applications of Time varying parameter Models to Economics and Finance written by Peng Huang (Ph. D.) and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 208 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This dissertation focuses on applying time-varying-parameter models to the field of financial and monetary economics. The first two essays analyze the cross-sectional returns on the U.S. stock market by emphasizing the dynamics of risk loadings. The third essay studies the impact of a tight monetary policy on weak currencies during financial crises by examining the time-varying relationship between interest rates and exchange rates. Motivated by the pricing errors found in small size and low book-to-market ratio portfolios in the Fama-French three-factor model, the first essay proposes a time-varying four-factor model. As small size and low book-to-market ratio firms are more sensitive to the risk related to innovations in the discount rate, the model incorporates a new risk factor to capture the information about the discount-rate risk for which the Fama-French three factors cannot fully account. In addition, the investors' learning process mimicked by the Kalman filter procedure is used to model the evolution of risk loadings. The results indicate that the model outperforms the Fama-French three-factor model in explaining the cross-sectional returns by substantially reducing pricing errors. The second essay analyzes the risk-return relationship in a capital asset pricing model (CAPM) with a time-varying beta estimated by adaptive least squares (ALS) based on Kalman foundations. The results show the presence of a significant and positive risk-return relationship in the up market and the presence of a significant and negative risk-return relationship in the down market. In comparison with the model that assumes a constant beta, the CAMP with a time-varying beta reduces unexplained returns and improves the accuracy of the estimated risk-return relationship. The third essay investigates the use of interest rates as a monetary instrument to stabilize exchange rates in the Asian financial crisis. Since previous studies suggest that the interest-exchange rate relationship may vary within, or across, regimes, a time-varying-parameter model with generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic (GARCH) disturbances is used to estimate the impact of raising interest rates on exchange rates. The empirical evidence shows that an increase in interest rates leads to currency depreciation during certain periods of financial crises.

Download or read book Feedback Trading and Predictability of Stock Returns in Germany 1880 1913 written by Christian Pierdzioch and published by . This book was released on 2004 with total page 36 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Prague Economic Papers written by and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 408 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Quarterly journal of economic theory and policy.

Download or read book The Journal of Economic Perspectives written by and published by . This book was released on 2002 with total page 512 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This journal attempts to fill a gap between the general-interest press and other academic economics journals. Its articles relate to active lines of economics research, economic analysis of public policy issues, state-of-the-art economic thinking, and directions for future research. It also aims to provide material for classroom use, and to address issues relating to the economics profession.

Download or read book randall k filer and jan hanousek written by and published by . This book was released on 2001 with total page 41 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Market Timing and Model Uncertainty written by David M. Rey and published by . This book was released on 2005 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We use statistical model selection criteria and AVRAMOV's (2002) Bayesian model averaging approach to analyze the sample evidence of stock market predictability in the presence of model uncertainty. The empirical analysis for the Swiss stock market is based on a number of predictive variables found important in previous studies of return predictability. We find that it is difficult to discard any predictive variable as completely worthless, but that the posterior probabilities of the individual forecasting models as well as the cumulative posterior probabilities of the predictive variables are time-varying. Moreover, the estimates of the posterior probabilities are not robust to whether the predictive variables are stochastically detrended or not. The decomposition of the variance of predicted future returns into the components parameter uncertainty, model uncertainty, and the uncertainty attributed to forecast errors indicates that the respective contributions strongly depend on the time period under consideration and the initial values of the predictive variables. In contrast to AVRAMOV (2002), model uncertainty is generally not more important than parameter uncertainty. Finally, we demonstrate the implications of model uncertainty for market timing strategies. In general, our results do not indicate any reliable out-of-sample return predictability. Among the predictive variables, the dividend-price ratio exhibits the worst external validation on average. Again in contrast to AVRAMOV (2002), our analysis suggests that the out-of-sample performance of the Bayesian model averaging approach is not superior to the statistical model selection criteria. Consequently, model averaging does not seem to help improve the performance of the resulting short-term market timing strategies.