Download or read book A Statistical Model to Forecast Short term Atlantic Hurricane Intensity written by Kevin T. Law and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 245 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Abstract: The accuracy of hurricane intensity forecasts has lagged the accuracy of hurricane track forecasts thereby creating a need for improvement. Many models struggle capturing the rapid intensification period and identifying when it will occur which causes a large amount of error in the intensity forecasts. The method described in this paper uses a discriminant function analysis (DFA) to help identify how intense the tropical cyclone will become and also how close it is to the rapid intensification period. Identifying the proximity to the rapid intensification period is a key factor in improving the intensity forecasts. Based upon the intensity and its proximity to its rapid intensification period, as selected by the DFA, an appropriate regression model is applied to forecast the 24-hour and 6-hour pressure reduction and wind speed increase. Other statistical intensity models apply the same regression model throughout the entire lifecycle of the tropical cyclone. This model relies on the premise that factors which cause intensification affect the tropical cyclone differently throughout its life cycle. Therefore, by using the DFA, different stages in its life cycle are identified, which allows the regression model to use the most significant variables at the particular stage. They are shown to improve the intensity forecasts at the stages leading up to and during the rapid intensification, which happen to be the most difficult stages to predict. The forecasts were validated with 13 independent case studies and compared with the official National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecasts.
Download or read book Improved Short term Atlantic Hurricane Intensity Forecasts Using Reconnaissance based Core Measurements written by David Andrew Murray and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 134 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Finally, stepwise multiple linear regression is performed to create a SHIPS-style intensity forecast model (Atlantic-based Statistical Prediction of Hurricane Intensity using Recon, or ASPIRE). Examination of the regression equations and the change in predictors selected with varying intensity and forecast length offers additional insight into the science of TC intensity forecasting. Cross-validation results show that the ASPIRE technique outperforms SHIPS at nearly every forecast time and initial intensity, indicating that a new benchmark for TC intensity forecasting may have been attained. Two dependent case studies of Hurricane Ivan and Hurricane Katrina are presented for further analysis of the ASPIRE technique. Further work involving the utilization of satellite data to create proxy VDMs may lead to an expanded climatological database of inner-core data for TCs in the Atlantic basin as well as the capability to create similar regression schemes in the East Pacific and West Pacific basins.
Download or read book Statistical Modelling and Risk Analysis written by Christos P. Kitsos and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2024-01-13 with total page 230 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume covers the latest results on novel methods in Risk Analysis and assessment, with applications in Biostatistics (which is providing food for thought since the first ICRAs, covering traditional areas of RA, until now), Engineering Reliability, the Environmental Sciences and Economics. The contributions, based on lectures given at the 9th International Conference on Risk Analysis (ICRA 9), at Perugia, Italy, May 2022, detail a wide variety of daily risks, building on ideas presented at previous ICRA conferences. Working within a strong theoretical framework, supporting applications, the material describes a modern extension of the traditional research of the 1980s. This book is intended for graduate students in Mathematics, Statistics, Biology, Toxicology, Medicine, Management, and Economics, as well as quantitative researchers in Risk Analysis.
Download or read book Hurricane Climatology written by James B. Elsner and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2013-03-28 with total page 390 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Hurricane Climatology explains how to analyze and model hurricane data to better understand and predict present and future hurricane activity
Download or read book Historical Essays on Meteorology 1919 1995 written by James Fleming and published by Springer. This book was released on 2016-06-30 with total page 613 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: On the occasion of its 75th anniversary, the American Meteorological Society engaged a number of eminent pioneers and leading practitioners to write about the fields they helped develop. They were joined by several professional historians of science and technology. The resulting essays constitute a substantial sampling of what has been learned since 1919 in the atmospheric sciences and services—in research, in education, and in the private sector. This volume will be of interest to weather professionals and enthusiasts, historians of science, and to students of science and history. It will help us calibrate where we are, where we have been, and where we might be going as a discipline. Hopefully it will inspire others to value the past and to dig into it more deeply. Such attention to history is a necessary step in the maturation of a scientific discipline.
Download or read book Tropical cyclone intensity and structure changes Theories observations numerical modeling and forecasting written by Eric Hendricks and published by Frontiers Media SA. This book was released on 2023-09-29 with total page 260 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Content Addressable Memories written by Teuvo Kohonen and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 397 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Due to continual progress in the large-scale integration of semiconductor circuits, parallel computing principles can already be met in low-cost sys tems: numerous examples exist in image processing, for which special hard ware is implementable with quite modest resources even by nonprofessional designers. Principles of content addressing, if thoroughly understood, can thereby be applied effectively using standard components. On the other hand, mass storage based on associative principles still exists only in the long term plans of computer technologists. This situation is somewhat confused by the fact that certain expectations are held for the development of new storage media such as optical memories and "spin glasses" (metal alloys with low-density magnetic impurities). Their technologies, however, may not ripen until after "fifth generation" computers have been built. It seems that software methods for content addressing, especially those based on hash coding principles, are still holding their position firmly, and a few innovations have been developed recently. As they need no special hardware, one might expect that they will spread to a wide circle of users. This monograph is based on an extensive literature survey, most of which was published in the First Edition. I have added Chap. ?, which contains a review of more recent work. This updated book now has references to over 1200 original publications. In the editing of the new material, I received valuable help from Anneli HeimbUrger, M. Sc. , and Mrs. Leila Koivisto.
Download or read book Hurricane written by Robert Simpson and published by American Geophysical Union. This book was released on 2003 with total page 384 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is based upon presentations at an historical symposium on hurricanes convened by the American Geophysical Union at its Fall meeting in San Francisco, December 16, 2000".
Download or read book Recent Hurricane Research written by Anthony Lupo and published by BoD – Books on Demand. This book was released on 2011-04-19 with total page 634 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book represents recent research on tropical cyclones and their impact, and a wide range of topics are covered. An updated global climatology is presented, including the global occurrence of tropical cyclones and the terrestrial factors that may contribute to the variability and long-term trends in their occurrence. Research also examines long term trends in tropical cyclone occurrences and intensity as related to solar activity, while other research discusses the impact climate change may have on these storms. The dynamics and structure of tropical cyclones are studied, with traditional diagnostics employed to examine these as well as more modern approaches in examining their thermodynamics. The book aptly demonstrates how new research into short-range forecasting of tropical cyclone tracks and intensities using satellite information has led to significant improvements. In looking at societal and ecological risks, and damage assessment, authors investigate the use of technology for anticipating, and later evaluating, the amount of damage that is done to human society, watersheds, and forests by land-falling storms. The economic and ecological vulnerability of coastal regions are also studied and are supported by case studies which examine the potential hazards related to the evacuation of populated areas, including medical facilities. These studies provide decision makers with a potential basis for developing improved evacuation techniques.
Download or read book Climate Extremes written by S.-Y. Simon Wang and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2017-06-15 with total page 436 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Although we are seeing more weather and climate extremes, individual extreme events are very diverse and generalization of trends is difficult. For example, mid-latitude and subtropical climate extremes such as heat waves, hurricanes and droughts have increased, and could have been caused by processes including arctic amplification, jet stream meandering, and tropical expansion. This volume documents various climate extreme events and associated changes that have been analyzed through diagnostics, modeling, and statistical approaches. The identification of patterns and mechanisms can aid the prediction of future extreme events. Volume highlights include: Compilation of processes and mechanisms unique to individual weather and climate extreme events Discussion of climate model performance in terms of simulating high-impact weather and climate extremes Summary of various existing theories, including controversial ones, on how climate extremes will continue to become stronger and more frequent Climate Extremes: Patterns and Mechanisms is a valuable resource for scientists and graduate students in the fields of geophysics, climate physics, natural hazards, and environmental science. Read an interview with the editors to find out more: https://eos.org/editors-vox/how-does-changing-climate-bring-more-extreme-events
Download or read book Hurricanes of the North Atlantic written by James B. Elsner and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 1999-06-10 with total page 505 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Called the greatest storms on the planet, hurricanes of the North Atlantic Ocean often cause tremendous social and economic upheaval in the United States, Mexico, and the Caribbean. And with the increasing development of coastal areas, the impact of these storms will likely increase. This book provides a comprehensive analysis of North Atlantic hurricanes and what they mean to society. It is intended as an intermediary between hurricane climate research and the users of hurricane information. Topics include the climatology of tropical cyclones in general and those of the North Atlantic in particular; the major North Atlantic hurricanes, focusing on U.S. landfalling storms; the prediction models used in forecasting; and societal vulnerability to hurricanes, including ideas for modeling the relationship between climatological data and analysis in the social and economic sciences.
Download or read book Hurricanes and Climate Change written by Jennifer M. Collins and published by Springer. This book was released on 2017-02-20 with total page 262 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book provides research that shows tropical cyclones are more powerful than in the past with the most dramatic increases occurring over the North Atlantic and with the strongest hurricanes. Although such increases are correlated with warming oceans and are consistent with the thermodynamic theory of hurricane intensity, there remains doubt about the interpretation, integrity, and meaning of these results. Arising from the 5th International Summit on Hurricanes and Climate Change, this book contains new research on topics related to hurricanes and climate change. Bringing together international leading academics and researchers on various sides of the debate, the book discusses new research and expresses opinions about what is happening and what might happen in the future with regard to regional and global hurricane (tropical cyclone) activity.
Download or read book Geographic Information Systems written by and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Geographic Information Systems: Concepts, Methodologies, Tools, and Applications is a collection of knowledge on the latest advancements and research of geographic information systems. This book aims to be useful for academics and practitioners involved in geographical data.
Download or read book Attribution of Extreme Weather Events in the Context of Climate Change written by National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2016-07-28 with total page 187 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: As climate has warmed over recent years, a new pattern of more frequent and more intense weather events has unfolded across the globe. Climate models simulate such changes in extreme events, and some of the reasons for the changes are well understood. Warming increases the likelihood of extremely hot days and nights, favors increased atmospheric moisture that may result in more frequent heavy rainfall and snowfall, and leads to evaporation that can exacerbate droughts. Even with evidence of these broad trends, scientists cautioned in the past that individual weather events couldn't be attributed to climate change. Now, with advances in understanding the climate science behind extreme events and the science of extreme event attribution, such blanket statements may not be accurate. The relatively young science of extreme event attribution seeks to tease out the influence of human-cause climate change from other factors, such as natural sources of variability like El Niño, as contributors to individual extreme events. Event attribution can answer questions about how much climate change influenced the probability or intensity of a specific type of weather event. As event attribution capabilities improve, they could help inform choices about assessing and managing risk, and in guiding climate adaptation strategies. This report examines the current state of science of extreme weather attribution, and identifies ways to move the science forward to improve attribution capabilities.
Download or read book Atmospheric Modeling Data Assimilation and Predictability written by Eugenia Kalnay and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2003 with total page 368 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book, first published in 2002, is a graduate-level text on numerical weather prediction, including atmospheric modeling, data assimilation and predictability.
Download or read book Global Perspectives On Tropical Cyclones From Science To Mitigation written by Johnny C L Chan and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2010-04-30 with total page 445 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is a completely rewritten, updated and expanded new edition of the original Global Perspectives on Tropical Cyclones published in 1995. It presents a comprehensive review of the state of science and forecasting of tropical cyclones together with the application of this science to disaster mitigation, hence the tag: From Science to Mitigation.Since the previous volume, enormous progress in understanding tropical cyclones has been achieved. These advances range from the theoretical through to ever more sophisticated computer modeling, all underpinned by a vast and growing range of observations from airborne, space and ocean observation platforms. The growth in observational capability is reflected by the inclusion of three new chapters on this topic. The chapter on the effects of climate change on tropical cyclone activity is also new, and appropriate given the recent intense debate on this issue. The advances in the understanding of tropical cyclones which have led to significant improvements in forecasting track, intensity, rainfall and storm surge, are reviewed in detail over three chapters. For the first time, a chapter on seasonal prediction is included. The book concludes with an important chapter on disaster mitigation, which is timely given the enormous loss of life in recent tropical cyclone disasters.World Scientific Series on Asia-Pacific Weather and Climate is indexed in SCOPUS.
Download or read book Hurricane Risk written by Jennifer M. Collins and published by Springer. This book was released on 2019-02-15 with total page 260 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book details the outcomes of new research focusing on climate risk related to hurricanes. Topics include numerical simulation of tropical cyclones, through tropical cyclone hazard estimation to damage estimates and their implications for commercial risk. Inspired by the 6th International Summit on Hurricanes and Climate Change: From Hazard to Impact, this book brings together leading international academics and researchers, and provides a source reference for both risk managers and climate scientists for research on the interface between tropical cyclones, climate and risk.
