Download or read book A Statistical dynamical Approach to Intraseasonal Prediction of Tropical Cyclogenesis in the Western North Pacific written by Bryan D. Mundhenk and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 107 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We have developed a combined statistical-dynamical prediction scheme to predict the probability of tropical cyclone (TC) formation at daily, 2.5° horizontal resolution across the western North Pacific at intraseasonal lead times. Through examination of previous research and our own analysis, we chose five variables to represent the favorability of the climate system to support tropical cyclogenesis. These so-called large-scale environmental factors (LSEFs) include: low-level relative vorticity, sea surface temperature, vertical wind shear, Coriolis, and upper-level divergence. Logistic regression was employed to generate a statistical model representing the probability of TC formation at every grid point based on these LSEFs. Thorough verification of zero-lead hindcasts reveals this model displays skill and potential value for risk adverse customers. In particular, these hindcasts had a positive Brier skill score of 0.03 and a skillful relative operating characteristic skill score of 0.68. The fully coupled, one-tier NCEP Climate Forecast System was used as the dynamical model with which to forecast the LSEFs and, in turn, force the regression model. A series of individual TC case studies were conducted to demonstrate the predictive potential, at intraseasonal leads, of our statistical-dynamical method. Lastly, we investigated the applicability of intraseasonal forecasts to military planning.
Download or read book Statistical dynamical Forecasting of Tropical Cyclogenesis in the North Atlantic at Intraseasonal Lead Times written by Chad S. Raynak and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 71 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We have created a combined statistical-dynamical model to predict the probability of tropical cyclone (TC) formation at daily, 2.5°̊ horizontal resolution in the North Atlantic (NA) at intraseasonal lead times. Based on prior research and our own analyses, we chose five large scale environmental factors (LSEFs) to represent favorable environments for TC formation. The LSEFs include: 850 mb relative vorticity, sea surface temperature, vertical wind shear, Coriolis, and 200 mb divergence. We used logistic regression to create a statistical model that depicts the probability for TC formation based on these LSEFs. Through verification of zero lead hindcasts, we determined that our regression model performs better than climatology. For example, these hindcasts had a Brier skill score of 0.04 and a relative operating characteristic skill score of 0.72. We then forced our regression model with LSEF fields from the NCEP Climate Forecast System to produce non-zero lead hindcasts and forecasts. We conducted a series of case studies to evaluate and study the predictive skill of our regression model, with the results showing that our model produces promising results at intraseasonal lead times.
Download or read book A Statistical Model for the Prediction of Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Motion WPCLPR written by Xu Yiming and published by . This book was released on 1985 with total page 38 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book A Statistical dynamical Model for Prediction of Tropical Cyclone Motion in the Eastern North Pacific Ocean written by Preston W. Leftwich and published by . This book was released on 1981 with total page 16 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Sub seasonal to Seasonal Prediction written by Andrew Robertson and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2018-10-24 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Gap Between Weather and Climate Forecasting: Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction is an ideal reference for researchers and practitioners across the range of disciplines involved in the science, modeling, forecasting and application of this new frontier in sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) prediction. It provides an accessible, yet rigorous, introduction to the scientific principles and sources of predictability through the unique challenges of numerical simulation and forecasting with state-of-science modeling codes and supercomputers. Additional coverage includes the prospects for developing applications to trigger early action decisions to lessen weather catastrophes, minimize costly damage, and optimize operator decisions. The book consists of a set of contributed chapters solicited from experts and leaders in the fields of S2S predictability science, numerical modeling, operational forecasting, and developing application sectors. The introduction and conclusion, written by the co-editors, provides historical perspective, unique synthesis and prospects, and emerging opportunities in this exciting, complex and interdisciplinary field.
Download or read book Intraseasonal Variability in the Atmosphere Ocean Climate System written by William K.-M. Lau and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2007-06-10 with total page 477 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This is the first comprehensive review of intra-seasonal variability (ISV); the contents are balanced between observation, theory and modeling. Starting with an overview of ISV and historical observations, the book addresses the coupling between ocean and atmosphere, and the worldwide role of ISV in monsoon variability. Also considered are the connections between oscillations like the Madden, Julian and El Nino/Southern and short-term climate.
Download or read book Tropical Cyclone Dynamics Prediction and Detection written by Anthony Lupo and published by BoD – Books on Demand. This book was released on 2016-11-02 with total page 260 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Today, tropical cyclones continue to bring destruction, as well as disruption, to societies that are exposed to their threat. This book represents a compilation of recent cutting-edge research on tropical cyclones and their impacts from researchers at many institutions around the world. This book contains new looks at tropical cyclone dynamics, the use of satellite-based remote sensing in the detection and climatology of tropical cyclones, and the modeling and prediction of tropical cyclones as well as their associated impacts. This book would make a nice addition to any course on tropical meteorology highlighting topics of interest in recent research on this topic.
Download or read book Climate Variability and Tropical Cyclone Activity written by Pao-Shin Chu and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2022-03-10 with total page 321 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A comprehensive summary of tropical cyclone variability at time scales from intraseasonal and interannual to interdecadal and centennial. Major climate oscillations (Madden-Julian, El Niño, Atlantic Meridional Mode and Pacific Decadal) are covered, and their impacts on tropical cyclone activity in the Pacific and Atlantic oceans are discussed.
Download or read book Accuracy of Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Intensity Guidance written by and published by . This book was released on 2005 with total page 107 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Consensus methods require that the techniques have no bias and have skill. The accuracy of six statistical and dynamical model tropical cyclone intensity guidance techniques was examined for western North Pacific tropical cyclones during the 2003 and 2004 seasons using the climatology and persistence technique called ST5D as a measure of skill. A framework of three phases: (i) initial intensification; (ii) maximum intensity with possible decay/reintensification cycles; and (iii) decay was used to examine the skill. During both the formation and intensification stages, only about 60% of the 24-36 h forecasts were within +/- 10 kt, and the predominant tendency was to under-forecast the intensity. None of the guidance techniques predicted rapid intensification well. All of the techniques tended to under-forecast maximum intensity and miss decay/reintensification cycles. A few of the techniques provided useful guidance on the magnitude of the decay, although the timing of the decay was often missed. Whereas about 60-70% of the 12-h to 72-h forecasts by the various techniques during the decay phase were within +/- 10 kt, the strong bias was to not decay the cyclone rapidly enough. In general the techniques predict too narrow a range of intensity changes for both intensification and decay.
Download or read book Versuche mit Westinghouse K rting und Clayton Bremse auf der Gotthardbahn written by and published by . This book was released on 1888 with total page 18 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Westinghouse Körting Clayton.
Download or read book Evaluation of Dynamical Track Predictions for Tropical Cyclones in the Atlantic During 1997 98 written by David S. Brown and published by . This book was released on 2000 with total page 92 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Carr and Elsberry (1999; NPS Tech Report) have described eight conceptual models that explain most cases of large (> 300 n mi at 72 h) western North Pacific tropical cyclone (TC) track errors by the Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS) and the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Lab (Navy version - GFDN) models. This study is for TCs in the Atlantic basin and includes the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) and the United Kingdom Meteorological Office global models, whereas the GFDL model is eliminated. A detailed examination is made of large (> 250 n mi at 72 h) errors made by the three dynamical models for two seasons of Atlantic TC tracks (1997-98). The percentages of> 250 n mi 72-h errors for the NOGAPS, UKMO, and ECMWF models were 23%, 26%, and 19%, respectively. The same error mechanisms found to apply in other basins also affect the dynamical models in the Atlantic. The NOGAPS and UKMO models have a tendency to over-represent TCs and other circulations, which leads to a cyclonic rotation, or even merger, via the Excessive Direct Cyclone Interaction (E-DCI) process, just as was found in the western North Pacific. The primary ECMWF error source was Excessive Midlatitude CycloGenesis (MCG).
Download or read book Evaluation of Dynamical Track Prediction Models for Tropical Cyclones Inthe Atlantic During 1997 98 written by David S. Brown and published by . This book was released on 2000-03-01 with total page 108 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Carr and Elsberry (1999; NPS Tech Report) have described eight conceptual models that explain most cases of large (> 300 n mi at 72 h) western North Pacific tropical cyclone (TC) track errors by the Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS) and the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Lab (Navy version - GFDN) models. This study is for TCs in the Atlantic basin and includes the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) and the United Kingdom Meteorological Office global models, whereas the GFDL model is eliminated. A detailed examination is made of large (> 250 n mi at 72 h) errors made by the three dynamical models for two seasons of Atlantic TC tracks (1997-98). The percentages of > 250 n mi 72-h errors for the NOGAPS, UKMO, and ECMWF models were 23%, 26%, and 19%, respectively. The same error mechanisms found to apply in other basins also affect the dynamical models in the Atlantic. The NOGAPS and UKMO models have a tendency to over-represent TCs and other circulations, which leads to a cyclonic rotation, or even merger, via the Excessive Direct Cyclone Interaction (E-DCI) process, just as was found in the western North Pacific. The primary ECMWF error source was Excessive Midlatitude CycloGenesis (MCG).
Download or read book El Ni o Southern Oscillation in a Changing Climate written by Michael J. McPhaden and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2020-11-24 with total page 528 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Comprehensive and up-to-date information on Earth’s most dominant year-to-year climate variation The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the Pacific Ocean has major worldwide social and economic consequences through its global scale effects on atmospheric and oceanic circulation, marine and terrestrial ecosystems, and other natural systems. Ongoing climate change is projected to significantly alter ENSO's dynamics and impacts. El Niño Southern Oscillation in a Changing Climate presents the latest theories, models, and observations, and explores the challenges of forecasting ENSO as the climate continues to change. Volume highlights include: Historical background on ENSO and its societal consequences Review of key El Niño (ENSO warm phase) and La Niña (ENSO cold phase) characteristics Mathematical description of the underlying physical processes that generate ENSO variations Conceptual framework for understanding ENSO changes on decadal and longer time scales, including the response to greenhouse gas forcing ENSO impacts on extreme ocean, weather, and climate events, including tropical cyclones, and how ENSO affects fisheries and the global carbon cycle Advances in modeling, paleo-reconstructions, and operational climate forecasting Future projections of ENSO and its impacts Factors influencing ENSO events, such as inter-basin climate interactions and volcanic eruptions The American Geophysical Union promotes discovery in Earth and space science for the benefit of humanity. Its publications disseminate scientific knowledge and provide resources for researchers, students, and professionals. Find out more about this book from this Q&A with the editors.
Download or read book Statistical Guidance for the Prediction of Eastern North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Motion written by Preston W. Leftwich and published by . This book was released on 1977 with total page 15 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book An Observational Analysis of Tropical Cyclogenesis in the Western North Pacific written by Bing Fu and published by . This book was released on 2003 with total page 168 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: High-resolution satellite data are used to analyze 34 tropical storms in the Western North Pacific (WNP) during the 2000 and 2001 storm seasons. Three scenarios: Tropical Cyclone Energy Dispersion (TCED), Synoptic Wavetrain/Mixed Rossby-Gravity wave (SWT/MRG) and Easterly Wave (EW) forcing, are identified as dominant synoptic-scale triggers for TC genesis. Among these 34 cases, 6 cases are associated with TCED, 11 cases are associated with SWTIMRG and 7 cases are associated with EW forcing. For the remaining cases, three presumable scenarios are proposed. Our analyses suggest that TCED has a close relationship with TC intensity and the background wind field. Not all mature TCs produce Rossby wavetrains at their wakes; and not all wavetrains lead to the formation of new TCs. The vertical divergence profile of the Rossby wavetrain has a baroclinic structure, while the vorticity profile shows an equivalent barotropic structure, penetrating from the surface to 200mb. The large-scale environmental flow plays an important role in determining whether a wavetrain can further develop into a TC. Evolution characteristics and vertical structures of easterly waves and synoptic-scale wavetrains and their roles in cyclogenesis are also investigated. Our results also show that tropical Intraseasonal Oscillation (ISO) has a significant modulation on TC formation, especially in 2000.
Download or read book Southern Hemisphere Application of the Systematic Approach to Tropical Cyclone Forecasting Part 4 Sources of Large Track Errors by Dynamical Models written by and published by . This book was released on 2000 with total page 58 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Extreme Events written by Mario Chavez and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2015-11-23 with total page 438 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The monograph covers the fundamentals and the consequences of extreme geophysical phenomena like asteroid impacts, climatic change, earthquakes, tsunamis, hurricanes, landslides, volcanic eruptions, flooding, and space weather. This monograph also addresses their associated, local and worldwide socio-economic impacts. The understanding and modeling of these phenomena is critical to the development of timely worldwide strategies for the prediction of natural and anthropogenic extreme events, in order to mitigate their adverse consequences. This monograph is unique in as much as it is dedicated to recent theoretical, numerical and empirical developments that aim to improve: (i) the understanding, modeling and prediction of extreme events in the geosciences, and, (ii) the quantitative evaluation of their economic consequences. The emphasis is on coupled, integrative assessment of the physical phenomena and their socio-economic impacts. With its overarching theme, Extreme Events: Observations, Modeling and Economics will be relevant to and become an important tool for researchers and practitioners in the fields of hazard and risk analysis in general, as well as to those with a special interest in climate change, atmospheric and oceanic sciences, seismo-tectonics, hydrology, and space weather.
