Download or read book A Spatiotemporal Mountain Pine Beetle Outbreak Model Predicting Severity Cycle Period and Invasion Speed written by Jacob P. Duncan and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The mountain pine beetle (MPB, Dendroctonus ponderosae), a tree-killing bark beetle, has historically been part of the normal disturbance regime in lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta) forests. In recent years, warm winters and summers have allowed MPB populations to achieve synchronous emergence and successful attacks, resulting in widespread population outbreaks and resultant tree mortality across western North America. We develop an age-structured forest demographic model that incorporates temperature-dependent MPB infestations: the Susceptible-Infested-Juvenile (SIJ) model. Stability of fixed points is analyzed as a function of population growth rates, and indicates the existence of periodic outbreaks that intensify as growth rates increase. We devise analytical methods to predict outbreak severity and duration as well as outbreak return time. To assess the vulnerability of natural resources to climate change, we develop a thermally-driven mechanistic model to predict MPB population growth rates using a distributional model of beetle phenology in conjunction with criteria for successful tree colonization. The model uses projected daily minimum and maximum temperatures for the years 2025 to 2085 generated by three separate global climate models. Growth rates are calculated each year for an area defined by latitude range 42℗ʻ N to 49℗ʻ N and longitude range 108℗ʻ W to 117℗ʻ W on a Cartesian grid of approximately 4km resolution. Using these growth rates, we analyze how the optimal thermal window for beetle development is changing with respect to elevation as a result of climate change induced warming. We also use our combined model to evaluate if thermal regimes exist that would promote life cycle bivoltinism and discuss how yearly growth rates would change as a result. Outbreaks of MPB are largely driven by host tree stand demographics and spatial effects of beetle dispersal. We augment the SIJ model to account for the spatial effects of MPB dispersal throughout a forest landscape by coupling it with a Gaussian redistribution kernel. The new model generates a train of sustained solitary waves of infestation that move through a forest with constant speed. We convert the resulting integrodifference equation into a partial differential equation and search for travelling wave solutions. The resulting differential equation provides predictions of the shape of an outbreak wave profile and of peak infestation as functions of wave speed, which can be calculated analytically. These results culminate in the derivation of an explicit formula for predicting the severity of an outbreak based on the net reproductive rate of MPB and host searching efficiency.

Download or read book Using Reconstructed Outbreak Histories of Mountain Pine Beetle Fire and Climate to Predict the Risk of Future Outbreaks written by Kathy J. Lewis and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 20 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae) is a native bark beetle of forests in BC, and there is documented evidence of outbreaks dating back to 1910. The current outbreak is substantially larger than past documented outbreaks, but the temporal scale of landscape-level forest change is much longer than the limited scope of recorded history. It is possible that the scale of management-induced changes to forest structure through fire suppression and forestry practices, and the mounting evidence of a changing climate, have contributed to an outbreak that is well outside the natural range of variation. The purpose of this project is to determine the magnitude and synchrony of historical beetle outbreaks in sub-boreal forests of central BC, and to relate those with climate factors and changes in fire regimes. Our focus is on the north-central part of BC, in areas that in the past have been less conducive to large scale mountain pine beetle outbreaks and less influenced by fire suppression, to determine whether or not the current outbreak in this area is due to the enormous population build-up alone, or whether changes in climate and/or fire regime have played a role. Using dendroecological methods, we have successfully reconstructed multiple mountain pine beetle outbreaks and calibrated our detection methods based on historical survey information. Our investigation of climate/outbreak relationships is underway and suggests that the timing of outbreaks in this area can be linked to periods of favourable climate for mountain pine beetle population growth.

Download or read book Do Mountain Pine Beetle Outbreaks Change the Probability of Active Crown Fire in Lodgepole Pine Forests written by Martin Simard and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page 22 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Disturbance interactions have received growing interest in ecological research in the last decade. Fire and bark beetle outbreaks have recently increased in severity and extent across western North America, raising concerns about their possible interactions. Although it is often presumed that bark beetle outbreaks increase probability of active crown fire by producing high loads of surface and canopy dead fuels, empirical data are scarce and results are ambivalent. We combined field measurements and modeling to address the following question: How do fuel characteristics, microclimate, and potential fire behavior change with time since a severe mountain pine beetle outbreak in Pinus contorta forests of Greater Yellowstone (Wyoming, USA)? We measured surface and canopy fuels, and soil surface temperature in a time-since-beetle-outbreak chronosequence (n = 35 sites) from undisturbed to 36 years post-outbreak, including stands in red- and gray-needle stages (respectively, 1?2 and 3?5 years post-outbreak). Field data were used to parameterize the fire behavior model NEXUS and predict potential fire behavior at each site. Dead surface fuel loads of all size categories did not differ among undisturbed, red, and gray-stage stands. Compared to undisturbed sites, red and gray-stage sites had on average 53% lower canopy bulk density, 42% lower canopy fuel load, and 29% lower canopy moisture content, but had similar canopy base heights (3.1 m). In subsequent decades, coarse wood loads doubled and canopy base height declined to 0 m. Modeling results suggested that undisturbed, red, and gray-stage stands were unlikely to exhibit transition of surface fires to tree crowns (torching), and that the likelihood of sustaining an active crown fire (crowning) decreased from undisturbed to gray-stage stands. Simulated fire behavior was little affected by beetle disturbance when wind speed was either below 40 km/h or above 60 km/h, but at intermediate wind speeds, probability of crowning in red- and gray-stage stands was lower than in undisturbed stands, and old post-outbreak stands were predicted to have passive crown fires. Results were consistent across a range of fuel moisture scenarios. Our results suggest that mountain pine beetle outbreaks in Greater Yellowstone may reduce the probability of active crown fire in the short term by thinning lodgepole pine canopies.

Download or read book Validation of a Mountain Pine Beetle Outbreak Model for Lodgepole Pine in Central Oregon Classic Reprint written by Andrew J. R. Gillespie and published by Forgotten Books. This book was released on 2018-01-09 with total page 26 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Excerpt from Validation of a Mountain Pine Beetle Outbreak Model for Lodgepole Pine in Central Oregon Within the data from each stratum, we recoded all recently kille with an unknown cause of mortality, changing them into live trees. About the Publisher Forgotten Books publishes hundreds of thousands of rare and classic books. Find more at www.forgottenbooks.com This book is a reproduction of an important historical work. Forgotten Books uses state-of-the-art technology to digitally reconstruct the work, preserving the original format whilst repairing imperfections present in the aged copy. In rare cases, an imperfection in the original, such as a blemish or missing page, may be replicated in our edition. We do, however, repair the vast majority of imperfections successfully; any imperfections that remain are intentionally left to preserve the state of such historical works.

Download or read book Lane Peet Study Area written by Mountain Pine Beetle Interdisciplinary Team and published by . This book was released on 1974 with total page 63 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Modeling Individual Lodgepole Pine Mortality from Mountain Pine Beetle Outbreak in a Spatially Explicit Framework written by Michele Susan Buonanduci and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page 49 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Outbreaks of native bark beetles (Curculionidae: Scolytinae) are key natural disturbances that shape the structure and function of conifer forests across the northern hemisphere. While drivers of bark beetle outbreaks have been studied extensively at spatial scales ranging from stands to continents, within-stand processes driving individual tree mortality in an outbreak are less well understood. Here we use a spatially explicit long-term monitoring dataset of lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta var. latifolia) forest impacted by a severe mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae) outbreak to explore interactions among fine-scale drivers of beetle-caused tree mortality. Using a hierarchical Bayesian spatial modeling approach, we evaluated whether and how within-stand neighborhood structure and topographic setting interact with tree size to mediate tree level susceptibility to mountain pine beetle outbreak in the Southern Rocky Mountains (USA). We found evidence that both tree growth rate preceding the outbreak and stand structure around the host tree mediated the effect of tree size. However, we did not find evidence that topographic position within a stand mediated the effect of tree size. Mortality probability increased with pre-outbreak growth rate for small to medium sized trees (~10-25 centimeters diameter), but that same effect could not be detected for larger trees. Conversely, mortality probability increased with greater neighborhood density across tree sizes, with the most pronounced effects for medium to large sized trees (~15-30 centimeters diameter). Within-stand topographic variability was not an important predictor of mortality probability; among stands, however, the driest stand conditions experienced the greatest overall mortality. By explicitly considering how natural within-stand heterogeneity mediates individual tree level susceptibility to mountain pine beetle outbreak, our findings bridge an important gap in understanding multi-scale drivers of disturbance dynamics. Identifying factors influencing individual tree mortality in these systems informs our understanding of both the structural development of forest stands and reciprocal feedbacks between stand structure and outbreak dynamics.

Download or read book Bark Beetle fire forest Interactions in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem written by Martin Simard and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page 122 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book The Mountain Pine Beetle written by Pacific Forestry Centre and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 304 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "This book presents a synthesis of published information on mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins [Coleoptera: Scolytidae]) biology and management with an emphasis on lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta Dougl. ex Loud. var. latifolia Engelm.) forests of western Canada. Intended as a reference for researchers as well as forest managers, the book covers three main subject areas: mountain pine beetle biology, management, and socioeconomic concerns. The chapters on biology cover taxonomy, life history and habits, distribution, insect-host tree interactions, development and survival, epidemiology, and outbreak history. The management section covers management strategy, survey and detection, proactive and preventive management, and decision support tools. The chapters on socioeconomic aspects include an economic examination of management programs and the utilization of post-beetle salvage timber in solid wood, panelboard, pulp and paper products."--Publisher's description.

Download or read book The Mathematics Behind Biological Invasions written by Mark A. Lewis and published by Springer. This book was released on 2016-05-05 with total page 373 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book investigates the mathematical analysis of biological invasions. Unlike purely qualitative treatments of ecology, it draws on mathematical theory and methods, equipping the reader with sharp tools and rigorous methodology. Subjects include invasion dynamics, species interactions, population spread, long-distance dispersal, stochastic effects, risk analysis, and optimal responses to invaders. While based on the theory of dynamical systems, including partial differential equations and integrodifference equations, the book also draws on information theory, machine learning, Monte Carlo methods, optimal control, statistics, and stochastic processes. Applications to real biological invasions are included throughout. Ultimately, the book imparts a powerful principle: that by bringing ecology and mathematics together, researchers can uncover new understanding of, and effective response strategies to, biological invasions. It is suitable for graduate students and established researchers in mathematical ecology.

Download or read book The Southern Pine Beetle written by Robert C. Thatcher and published by . This book was released on 1981 with total page 296 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation Management Options written by James M. Vose and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2013-12-05 with total page 494 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Forest land managers face the challenges of preparing their forests for the impacts of climate change. However, climate change adds a new dimension to the task of developing and testing science-based management options to deal with the effects of stressors on forest ecosystems in the southern United States. The large spatial scale and complex interactions make traditional experimental approaches difficult. Yet, the current progression of climate change science offers new insights from recent syntheses, models, and experiments, providing enough information to start planning now for a future that will likely include an increase in disturbances and rapid changes in forest conditions. Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation Management Options: A Guide for Natural Resource Managers in Southern Forest Ecosystems provides a comprehensive analysis of forest management options to guide natural resource management in the face of future climate change. Topics include potential climate change impacts on wildfire, insects, diseases, and invasives, and how these in turn might affect the values of southern forests that include timber, fiber, and carbon; water quality and quantity; species and habitats; and recreation. The book also considers southern forest carbon sequestration, vulnerability to biological threats, and migration of native tree populations due to climate change. This book utilizes the most relevant science and brings together science experts and land managers from various disciplines and regions throughout the south to combine science, models, and on-the-ground experience to develop management options. Providing a link between current management actions and future management options that would anticipate a changing climate, the authors hope to ensure a broader range of options for managing southern forests and protecting their values in the future.

Download or read book The Colorado Front Range written by Thomas T. Veblen and published by . This book was released on 1991 with total page 204 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Thriving on Our Changing Planet A Decadal Strategy for Earth Observation from Space written by National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2019-06-18 with total page 29 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We live on a dynamic Earth shaped by both natural processes and the impacts of humans on their environment. It is in our collective interest to observe and understand our planet, and to predict future behavior to the extent possible, in order to effectively manage resources, successfully respond to threats from natural and human-induced environmental change, and capitalize on the opportunities â€" social, economic, security, and more â€" that such knowledge can bring. By continuously monitoring and exploring Earth, developing a deep understanding of its evolving behavior, and characterizing the processes that shape and reshape the environment in which we live, we not only advance knowledge and basic discovery about our planet, but we further develop the foundation upon which benefits to society are built. Thriving on Our Changing Planet: A Decadal Strategy for Earth Observation from Space (National Academies Press, 2018) provides detailed guidance on how relevant federal agencies can ensure that the United States receives the maximum benefit from its investments in Earth observations from space, while operating within realistic cost constraints. This short booklet, designed to be accessible to the general public, provides a summary of the key ideas and recommendations from the full decadal survey report.

Download or read book Alaska s Changing Boreal Forest written by F. Stuart Chapin and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2006-01-12 with total page 369 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Boreal forest is the northern-most forest in the world, whose organisms and dynamics are shaped by low temperature and high latitude. The Alaskan Boreal forest is warming as rapidly as any place on earth, providing an opportunity to examine a biome as it adjusts to change. This book looks at this issue.

Download or read book Forest Pathology and Plant Health written by Matteo Garbelotto and published by MDPI. This book was released on 2018-04-13 with total page 243 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is a printed edition of the Special Issue "Forest Pathology and Plant Health" that was published in Forests

Download or read book Invasive Species in Forests and Rangelands of the United States written by Therese M. Poland and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2021-02-01 with total page 455 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This open access book describes the serious threat of invasive species to native ecosystems. Invasive species have caused and will continue to cause enormous ecological and economic damage with ever increasing world trade. This multi-disciplinary book, written by over 100 national experts, presents the latest research on a wide range of natural science and social science fields that explore the ecology, impacts, and practical tools for management of invasive species. It covers species of all taxonomic groups from insects and pathogens, to plants, vertebrates, and aquatic organisms that impact a diversity of habitats in forests, rangelands and grasslands of the United States. It is well-illustrated, provides summaries of the most important invasive species and issues impacting all regions of the country, and includes a comprehensive primary reference list for each topic. This scientific synthesis provides the cultural, economic, scientific and social context for addressing environmental challenges posed by invasive species and will be a valuable resource for scholars, policy makers, natural resource managers and practitioners.

Download or read book Bark Beetle Management Ecology and Climate Change written by Kamal J.K. Gandhi and published by Academic Press. This book was released on 2021-10-28 with total page 438 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Bark Beetle Management, Ecology, and Climate Change provides the most updated and comprehensive knowledge on the complex effects of global warming upon the economically and ecologically important bark beetle species and their host trees. This authoritative reference synthesizes information on how forest disturbances and environmental changes due to current and future climate changes alter the ecology and management of bark beetles in forested landscapes. Written by international experts on bark beetle ecology, this book covers topics ranging from changes in bark beetle distributions and addition of novel hosts due to climate change, interactions of insects with altered host physiology and disturbance regimes, ecosystem-level impacts of bark beetle outbreaks due to climate change, multi-trophic changes mediated via climate change, and management of bark beetles in altered forests and climate conditions. Bark Beetle Management, Ecology, and Climate Change is an important resource for entomologists, as well as forest health specialists, policy makers, and conservationists who are interested in multi-faceted impacts of climate change on forest insects at the organismal, population, and community-levels. The only book that addresses the impacts of global warming on bark beetles with feedback loops to forest patterns and processes Discusses altered disturbance regimes due to climate change with implications for bark beetles and associated organisms Led by a team of editors whose expertise includes entomology, pathology, ecology, forestry, modeling, and tree physiology