Download or read book A Simple Method for Extracting the Probability of Default from American Put Option Prices written by Bo-Young Chang and published by . This book was released on 2020 with total page 19 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "In this paper, we present a novel method to extract the risk-neutral probability of default of a firm from American put option prices. Building on the idea of a default corridor proposed in Carr and Wu (2011), we derive a parsimonious closed-form formula for American put option prices from which the probability of default can be inferred. The proposed method is easy to implement and helps overcome the main limitation of the method used in Carr and Wu (2011), which relies on the price of one deep-out-of-the-money put option. Our empirical results are based on seven large U.S. firms for the period 2002 to 2010. These results show that, in some cases, the option-implied probability of default can provide a more accurate estimate of default probability, compared to the estimates implied from credit default swap spreads"--Abstract.
Download or read book A Framework for Extracting the Probability of Default from Stock Option Prices written by Azusa Takeyama and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page 50 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Equity Option Implied Probability of Default and Equity Recovery Rate written by Bo Young Chang and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page 20 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: There is a close link between prices of equity options and the probability of default of a firm. We show that in the presence of positive expected equity recovery, the standard methods that assume zero equity recovery at default misestimate the probability of default implicit in option prices. We introduce a simple method to detect stocks with positive expected equity recovery by examining option prices, and propose a method to extract the probability of default from option prices in the presence of positive expected equity recovery. Our empirical results based on six large financial institutions in the US during the 2007-2009 crisis show that assuming zero recovery leads to significant mispricing of options and misestimation of implied probability of default.
Download or read book Equity Option implied Probability of Default and Equity Recovery written by Bo Young Chang and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 21 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "There is a close link between prices of equity options and the default probability of afirm. We show that in the presence of positive expected equity recovery, standard methods that assume zero equity recovery at default misestimate the option-implied default probability. We introduce a simple method to detect stocks with positive expected equity recovery by examining option prices and propose a method to extract the default probability from option prices that allows for positive equity recovery. We demonstrate possible applications of our methodology with examples that include large financial institutions in the United States during the 2007–09 subprime crisis."--Abstract, page ii.
Download or read book Extracting Risk Neutral Density and Its Moments from American Option Prices written by Yisong S. Tian and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: There has been a surge in the use of option-implied moments (e.g., volatility, skewness and kurtosis) in various empirical applications such as volatility forecasting, variance risk premium, empirical asset pricing, and portfolio selection. One potential obstacle in such applications is the requirement of European option prices in the estimation of these moments. In this paper, we develop a simple, accurate method for extracting risk-neutral density and its moments from American option prices. A key advantage of our approach is that a single implied binomial tree is constructed to fit all American option prices, utilizing the full information set in the entire options market. Since American options are more commonly traded than European options, our methodology expands the scope of research on option-implied density and moments to a much wider class of underlying assets (e.g., equity and futures options).
Download or read book Estimating Expected Default Probabilities Using the Option Pricing Model written by CHIH-MIN. HUNG and published by . This book was released on 2005 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This study estimates the expected default probability on the basis of the option pricing model. Since the estimates of the rate of return on debts and maturity were seldom researched on this approach, we measure the two parameters strictly. Furthermore, we propose an alternative method that can cover more firms to estimate the expected default probability. The results indicate that the expected default probability gave the bankrupt firm indication two years ago. We conclude that managers can grasp firms' financial status swiftly by the expected default probability.
Download or read book Mathematical Modeling and Methods of Option Pricing written by Lishang Jiang and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2005 with total page 344 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: From the perspective of partial differential equations (PDE), this book introduces the Black-Scholes-Merton's option pricing theory. A unified approach is used to model various types of option pricing as PDE problems, to derive pricing formulas as their solutions, and to design efficient algorithms from the numerical calculation of PDEs.
Download or read book Options Markets written by John C. Cox and published by Prentice Hall. This book was released on 1985 with total page 518 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Includes the first published detailed description of option exchange operations, the first published treatment using only elementary mathematics and the first step-by-step procedure for implementing the Black-Scholes formula in actual trading.
Download or read book Discrete Choice Methods with Simulation written by Kenneth Train and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2009-07-06 with total page 399 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book describes the new generation of discrete choice methods, focusing on the many advances that are made possible by simulation. Researchers use these statistical methods to examine the choices that consumers, households, firms, and other agents make. Each of the major models is covered: logit, generalized extreme value, or GEV (including nested and cross-nested logits), probit, and mixed logit, plus a variety of specifications that build on these basics. Simulation-assisted estimation procedures are investigated and compared, including maximum stimulated likelihood, method of simulated moments, and method of simulated scores. Procedures for drawing from densities are described, including variance reduction techniques such as anithetics and Halton draws. Recent advances in Bayesian procedures are explored, including the use of the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm and its variant Gibbs sampling. The second edition adds chapters on endogeneity and expectation-maximization (EM) algorithms. No other book incorporates all these fields, which have arisen in the past 25 years. The procedures are applicable in many fields, including energy, transportation, environmental studies, health, labor, and marketing.
Download or read book The Option iPoD written by Christian Capuano and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2008-08-01 with total page 31 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We present a framework to derive the probability of default implied by the price of equity options. The framework does not require any strong statistical assumption, and provide results that are informative on the expected developments of balance sheet variables, such as assets, equity and leverage, and on the Greek letters (delta, gamma and vega). We show how to extend the framework by using information from the price of a zero-coupon bond and CDS-spreads. In the episode of the collapse of Bear Stearns, option-iPoD was able to early signal market sentiment.
Download or read book Credit Default Swaps written by Marti Subrahmanyam and published by Now Publishers. This book was released on 2014-12-19 with total page 150 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Credit Default Swaps: A Survey is the most comprehensive review of all major research domains involving credit default swaps (CDS). CDS have been growing in importance in the global financial markets. However, their role has been hotly debated, in industry and academia, particularly since the credit crisis of 2007-2009. The authors review the extant literature on CDS that has accumulated over the past two decades and divide the survey into seven topics after providing a broad overview in the introduction. The second section traces the historical development of CDS markets and provides an introduction to CDS contract definitions and conventions. The third section discusses the pricing of CDS, from the perspective of no-arbitrage principles, structural, and reduced-form credit risk models. It also summarizes the literature on the determinants of CDS spreads, with a focus on the role of fundamental credit risk factors, liquidity and counterparty risk. The fourth section discusses how the development of the CDS market has affected the characteristics of the bond and equity markets, with an emphasis on market efficiency, price discovery, information flow, and liquidity. Attention is also paid to the CDS-bond basis, the wedge between the pricing of the CDS and its reference bond, and the mispricing between the CDS and the equity market. The fifth section examines the effect of CDS trading on firms' credit and bankruptcy risk, and how it affects corporate financial policy, including bond issuance, capital structure, liquidity management, and corporate governance. The sixth section analyzes how CDS impact the economic incentives of financial intermediaries. The seventh section reviews the growing literature on sovereign CDS and highlights the major differences between the sovereign and corporate CDS markets. The eighth section discusses CDS indices, especially the role of synthetic CDS index products backed by residential mortgage-backed securities during the financial crisis. The authors close with our suggestions for promising future research directions on CDS contracts and markets.
Download or read book Volatility and Time Series Econometrics written by Mark Watson and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2010-02-11 with total page 432 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A volume that celebrates and develops the work of Nobel Laureate Robert Engle, it includes original contributions from some of the world's leading econometricians that further Engle's work in time series economics
Download or read book Introduction to the Economics and Mathematics of Financial Markets written by Jaksa Cvitanic and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2004-02-27 with total page 528 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An innovative textbook for use in advanced undergraduate and graduate courses; accessible to students in financial mathematics, financial engineering and economics. Introduction to the Economics and Mathematics of Financial Markets fills the longstanding need for an accessible yet serious textbook treatment of financial economics. The book provides a rigorous overview of the subject, while its flexible presentation makes it suitable for use with different levels of undergraduate and graduate students. Each chapter presents mathematical models of financial problems at three different degrees of sophistication: single-period, multi-period, and continuous-time. The single-period and multi-period models require only basic calculus and an introductory probability/statistics course, while an advanced undergraduate course in probability is helpful in understanding the continuous-time models. In this way, the material is given complete coverage at different levels; the less advanced student can stop before the more sophisticated mathematics and still be able to grasp the general principles of financial economics. The book is divided into three parts. The first part provides an introduction to basic securities and financial market organization, the concept of interest rates, the main mathematical models, and quantitative ways to measure risks and rewards. The second part treats option pricing and hedging; here and throughout the book, the authors emphasize the Martingale or probabilistic approach. Finally, the third part examines equilibrium models—a subject often neglected by other texts in financial mathematics, but included here because of the qualitative insight it offers into the behavior of market participants and pricing.
Download or read book American Put Options written by Donna Salopek and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 1997-03-15 with total page 132 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An American put option gives its owner the right to sell a share of stock at a given specified price on or before a given date. This book provides a detailed comparison of recent works on the American put option from both theoretical and computational approaches.
Download or read book How I Became a Quant written by Richard R. Lindsey and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2011-01-11 with total page 406 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Praise for How I Became a Quant "Led by two top-notch quants, Richard R. Lindsey and Barry Schachter, How I Became a Quant details the quirky world of quantitative analysis through stories told by some of today's most successful quants. For anyone who might have thought otherwise, there are engaging personalities behind all that number crunching!" --Ira Kawaller, Kawaller & Co. and the Kawaller Fund "A fun and fascinating read. This book tells the story of how academics, physicists, mathematicians, and other scientists became professional investors managing billions." --David A. Krell, President and CEO, International Securities Exchange "How I Became a Quant should be must reading for all students with a quantitative aptitude. It provides fascinating examples of the dynamic career opportunities potentially open to anyone with the skills and passion for quantitative analysis." --Roy D. Henriksson, Chief Investment Officer, Advanced Portfolio Management "Quants"--those who design and implement mathematical models for the pricing of derivatives, assessment of risk, or prediction of market movements--are the backbone of today's investment industry. As the greater volatility of current financial markets has driven investors to seek shelter from increasing uncertainty, the quant revolution has given people the opportunity to avoid unwanted financial risk by literally trading it away, or more specifically, paying someone else to take on the unwanted risk. How I Became a Quant reveals the faces behind the quant revolution, offering you?the?chance to learn firsthand what it's like to be a?quant today. In this fascinating collection of Wall Street war stories, more than two dozen quants detail their roots, roles, and contributions, explaining what they do and how they do it, as well as outlining the sometimes unexpected paths they have followed from the halls of academia to the front lines of an investment revolution.
Download or read book Quantitative Finance For Dummies written by Steve Bell and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2016-06-07 with total page 408 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An accessible, thorough introduction to quantitative finance Does the complex world of quantitative finance make you quiver?You're not alone! It's a tough subject for even high-levelfinancial gurus to grasp, but Quantitative Finance ForDummies offers plain-English guidance on making sense ofapplying mathematics to investing decisions. With this completeguide, you'll gain a solid understanding of futures, options andrisk, and get up-to-speed on the most popular equations, methods,formulas and models (such as the Black-Scholes model) that areapplied in quantitative finance. Also known as mathematical finance, quantitative finance is thefield of mathematics applied to financial markets. It's a highlytechnical discipline—but almost all investment companies andhedge funds use quantitative methods. This fun and friendly guidebreaks the subject of quantitative finance down to easilydigestible parts, making it approachable for personal investors andfinance students alike. With the help of Quantitative FinanceFor Dummies, you'll learn the mathematical skills necessary forsuccess with quantitative finance, the most up-to-date portfolioand risk management applications and everything you need to knowabout basic derivatives pricing. Covers the core models, formulas and methods used inquantitative finance Includes examples and brief exercises to help augment yourunderstanding of QF Provides an easy-to-follow introduction to the complex world ofquantitative finance Explains how QF methods are used to define the current marketvalue of a derivative security Whether you're an aspiring quant or a top-tier personalinvestor, Quantitative Finance For Dummies is your go-toguide for coming to grips with QF/risk management.
Download or read book Multidimensional Integral Transformations written by and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 1992 with total page 404 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A cross between a textbook and a monograph, this extensive introduction discusses all of the most important transformations, compiling information otherwise scattered throughout the literature. Attention is concentrated on the operational calculus of the major integral transformations and some of its applications, with an investigation of transforms in spaces of functions and of distributions. Annotation copyrighted by Book News, Inc., Portland, OR
