Download or read book A Retrospective Evaluation of Traffic Forecasting Techniques written by John S. Miller and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Traffic forecasting techniques--such as extrapolation of previous years' traffic volumes, regional travel demand models, or local trip generation rates--help planners determine needed transportation improvements. Thus, knowing the accuracy of these techniques can help analysts better consider the range of transportation investments for a given location. To determine this accuracy, the forecasts from 39 Virginia studies (published from 1967-2010) were compared to observed volumes for the forecast year. Excluding statewide forecasts, the number of segments in each study ranged from 1 to 240. For each segment, the difference between the forecast volume and the observed volume divided by the observed volume gives a percent error such that a segment with a perfect forecast has an error of 0%. For the 39 studies, the median absolute percent error ranged from 1% to 134%, with an average value of 40%. Slightly more than one-fourth of the error was explained by three factors: the method used to develop the forecast, the length of the duration between the base year and forecast year, and the number of economic recessions between the base year and forecast year. In addition, although data are more limited, studies that forecast a 24-hour volume had a smaller percent error than studies that forecast a peak hour volume (p = 0.04); the reason is that the latter type of forecast requires an additional data element--the peak hour factor--that itself must be forecast. A limitation of this research is that although replication of observed volumes is sought when making a forecast, the observed volumes themselves are not without error; for example, an "observed" traffic count for a given year may in fact be based on a 48-hour count that has been expanded, based on seasonal adjustment factors, to estimate a yearly average traffic volume. The primary recommendation of this study is that forecasts be presented as a range. For example, based on the 39 studies evaluated, for a study that provides forecasts for multiple links, one would expect the median percent error to be approximately 40%. To be clear, detailed analysis of one study suggests it is possible that even a forecast error will not necessarily alter the decision one would make based on the forecast. Accordingly, considering how a change in a traffic forecast volume (by the expected error) influences decisions can help one better understand the need for a given transportation improvement. A secondary recommendation is to clarify how some of these traffic forecasting techniques can be performed, and supporting details for this clarification are given in Appendix A of this report.

Download or read book A Retrospective Evaluation of Traffic Forecasting written by John S. Miller and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 89 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Traffic forecasting techniques—such as extrapolation of previous years' traffic volumes, regional travel demand models, or local trip generation rates—help planners determine needed transportation improvements. Thus, knowing the accuracy of these techniques can help analysts better consider the range of transportation investments for a given location. To determine this accuracy, the forecasts from 39 Virginia studies (published from 1967-2010) were compared to observed volumes for the forecast year. Excluding statewide forecasts, the number of segments in each study ranged from 1 to 240. For each segment, the difference between the forecast volume and the observed volume divided by the observed volume gives a percent error such that a segment with a perfect forecast has an error of 0%. For the 39 studies, the median absolute percent error ranged from 1% to 134%, with an average value of 40%. Slightly more than one-fourth of the error was explained by three factors: the method used to develop the forecast, the length of the duration between the base year and forecast year, and the number of economic recessions between the base year and forecast year. In addition, although data are more limited, studies that forecast a 24-hour volume had a smaller percent error than studies that forecast a peak hour volume (p = 0.04); the reason is that the latter type of forecast requires an additional data element—the peak hour factor—that itself must be forecast. A limitation of this research is that although replication of observed volumes is sought when making a forecast, the observed volumes themselves are not without error; for example, an "observed" traffic count for a given year may in fact be based on a 48-hour count that has been expanded, based on seasonal adjustment factors, to estimate a yearly average traffic volume. The primary recommendation of this study is that forecasts be presented as a range. For example, based on the 39 studies evaluated, for a study that provides forecasts for multiple links, one would expect the median percent error to be approximately 40%. To be clear, detailed analysis of one study suggests it is possible that even a forecast error will not necessarily alter the decision one would make based on the forecast. Accordingly, considering how a change in a traffic forecast volume (by the expected error) influences decisions can help one better understand the need for a given transportation improvement. A secondary recommendation is to clarify how some of these traffic forecasting techniques can be performed, and supporting details for this clarification are given in Appendix A of this report.

Download or read book Review and Analysis of Current Trends in Traffic Forecasting Techniques written by George Edmond Khawwam and published by . This book was released on 1971 with total page 220 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book 20 year Traffic Forecasting Factors written by Dennis L. Johnson and published by . This book was released on 2000 with total page 140 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book A Retrospective Look at Multi modal Modelling Traffic Forecasting Performance for a Capital intensive Transit Improvement in the New York New Jersey Region written by Charles S. Henry and published by . This book was released on 1998 with total page 5 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Evaluation and Development of Forecasting Techniques for U S International Telecommunication Traffic written by Norman Conrad Lerner and published by . This book was released on 1968 with total page 350 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Traffic Forecasting Accuracy Assessment Research written by Gregory D. Erhardt and published by . This book was released on 2020 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Accurate traffic forecasts for highway planning and design help ensure that public dollars are spent wisely. Forecasts inform discussions about whether, when, how, and where to invest public resources to manage traffic flow, widen and remodel existing facilities, and where to locate, align, and how to size new ones. The TRB National Cooperative Highway Research Program's NCHRP Report 934: Traffic Forecasting Accuracy Assessment Research seeks to develop a process and methods by which to analyze and improve the accuracy, reliability, and utility of project-level traffic forecasts. The report also includes tools for engineers and planners who are involved in generating traffic forecasts, including: Quantile Regression Models, a Traffic Accuracy Assessment, a Forecast Archive Annotated Outline, a Deep Dive Annotated Outline, and Deep Dive Assessment Tables.

Download or read book Traffic Forecasting Accuracy Assessment Research written by Gregory D. Erhardt and published by . This book was released on 2020 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "Accurate traffic forecasts for highway planning and design help ensure that public dollars are spent wisely. Forecasts inform discussions about whether, when, how, and where to invest public resources to manage traffic flow, widen and remodel existing facilities, and where to locate, align, and how to size new ones. The TRB National Cooperative Highway Research Program's NCHRP Report 934: Traffic Forecasting Accuracy Assessment Research seeks to develop a process and methods by which to analyze and improve the accuracy, reliability, and utility of project-level traffic forecasts. The report also includes tools for engineers and planners who are involved in generating traffic forecasts, including: Quantile Regression Models, a Traffic Accuracy Assessment, a Forecast Archive Annotated Outline, a Deep Dive Annotated Outline, and Deep Dive Assessment Tables."--

Download or read book Statistical Methods in Traffic Engineering written by Johannes Friedrich Schwar and published by Literary Licensing, LLC. This book was released on 2012-04-01 with total page 132 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Analytical Travel Forecasting Approaches for Project level Planning and Design written by C. D. M. Smith and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 307 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "TRB's National Cooperative Highway Research Program (NCHRP) Report 765: Analytical Travel Forecasting Approaches for Project-Level Planning and Design describes methods, data sources, and procedures for producing travel forecasts for highway project-level analyses. This report provides an update to NCHRP Report 255: Highway Traffic Data for Urbanized Area Project Planning and Design. In addition to the report, Appendices A through I from the contractor's final report are available on CRP-CD-143. These appendices supplement this report by providing a substantial amount of companion data and information. The appendices also include the extended literature review, the detailed NCHRP Report 255 review, supplementary tables, a list of defined acronyms, and a glossary. Also included on CRP-CD-143 are spreadsheet demonstrations, and, for reference purposes, a tool developed by the North Carolina Department of Transportation to assess annual average daily traffic."--Publisher's description.

Download or read book Evaluation of Traffic Information and Prediction System TIPS as Work Zone Traffic Control written by Jerry G. Pigman and published by . This book was released on 2004 with total page 20 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Transport Matters written by Docherty, Iain and published by Policy Press. This book was released on 2019-10-01 with total page 452 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Comprising an innovative series of intersectional edited chapters, this book examines the ways that transport influences and is influenced by contemporary life in Britain. It interrogates key ideas around what transport does, why we should think about its impacts seriously and how we should change our attitude towards it in terms of our pursuit of key policy goals. Contributors explore what makes transport possible, the forces that shape transport development and how we can make transport better for both urban and rural populations in order to develop sustainable transport systems for the twenty-first century.

Download or read book Statewide Travel Forecasting Models written by Alan J. Horowitz and published by Transportation Research Board. This book was released on 2006 with total page 125 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: TRB's National Cooperative Highway Research Program (NCHRP) Synthesis 358: Statewide Travel Forecasting Models examines statewide travel forecasting models designed to address planning needs and provide forecasts for statewide transportation, including passenger vehicle and freight movements. The report explores the types and purposes of models being used, integration of state and urban models, data requirements, computer needs, resources (including time, funding, training, and staff), limitations, and overall benefits. The report includes five case studies, two that focus on passenger components, two on freight components, and one on both passenger and freight.

Download or read book Transportation Policy and Project Evaluation written by Huajie Yang and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on with total page 82 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Human Factors Methods written by Neville Stanton and published by Ashgate Publishing, Ltd.. This book was released on 2013 with total page 657 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This second edition of Human Factors Methods: A Practical Guide for Engineering and Design now presents 107 design and evaluation methods including numerous refinements to those that featured in the original. The book acts as an ergonomics methods manual, aiding both students and practitioners. Offering a 'how-to' text on a substantial range of ergonomics methods, the eleven sections represent the different categories of ergonomics methods and techniques that can be used in the evaluation and design process.

Download or read book The Benefits and Costs of Highway and Transit Investments written by and published by DIANE Publishing. This book was released on 2005-09 with total page 104 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Federal Evaluations written by and published by . This book was released on with total page 1032 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Contains an inventory of evaluation reports produced by and for selected Federal agencies, including GAO evaluation reports that relate to the programs of those agencies.