Download or read book A Procedure for Predicting Recessions with Leading Indicators written by James H. Stock and published by . This book was released on 1992 with total page 100 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines the forecasting performance of various leading economic indicators and composite indexes since 1988. in particular during the onset of the 1990 recession. The primary focus is on an experimental recession index (tile "XRI"). a composite index which provides probabilistic forecasts of whether the U.S. economy will be in a recession six months hence. After detailing its construction, the paper examines the out-of-sample performance of the XRI and a related forecast of overall economic growth. the experimental leading index (XLI). These indexes performed well from 1988 through the summer of 1990 - for example. in June 1990 the XLI model forecasted a .4% (annual rate) decline in the experimental coincident index from June through September. when in fact the decline was only slightly greater, .8%. However. the XLI failed to forecast the sharp declines of October and November 1990. After exploring several possible explanations. we conclude that one important source of the forecast error was the use of financial variables during a recession that was not associated with a particularly tight monetary policy. Financial indicators -- and the experimental index -- were not alone. however. in failing to forecast the 1990 recession, An examination of 45 economic indicators shows that almost all failed to forecast the 1990downturn. and the few that did provided unclear signals before the recessions of the 19705 and 1980s

Download or read book Predicting Recessions written by Chikako Baba and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2011-10-01 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This study proposes a data-based algorithm to select a subset of indicators from a large data set with a focus on forecasting recessions. The algorithm selects leading indicators of recessions based on the forecast encompassing principle and combines the forecasts. An application to U.S. data shows that forecasts obtained from the algorithm are consistently among the best in a large comparative forecasting exercise at various forecasting horizons. In addition, the selected indicators are reasonable and consistent with the standard leading indicators followed by many observers of business cycles. The suggested algorithm has several advantages, including wide applicability and objective variable selection.

Download or read book A Procecure for Predicting Recessions with Leading Indicators written by James H. Stock and published by . This book was released on 1991 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Business Cycles Indicators and Forecasting written by James H. Stock and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2008-04-15 with total page 350 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The inability of forecasters to predict accurately the 1990-1991 recession emphasizes the need for better ways for charting the course of the economy. In this volume, leading economists examine forecasting techniques developed over the past ten years, compare their performance to traditional econometric models, and discuss new methods for forecasting and time series analysis.

Download or read book Predicting Recessions with Leading Indicators written by Travis J. Berge and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Four model selection methods are applied to the problem of predicting business cycle turning points: equally-weighted forecasts, Bayesian model averaged forecasts, and two models produced by the machine learning algorithm boosting. The model selection algorithms condition on different economic indicators at different forecast horizons. Models produced by BMA and boosting outperform equally-weighted forecasts, even out of sample. Nonlinear models also appear to outperform their linear counterparts. Although the forecast ability of the yield curve endures, additional conditioning variables improves forecast ability. The findings highlight several important features of the business cycle.

Download or read book Leading Economic Indicators written by Kajal Lahiri and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 1991 with total page 488 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Developed fifty years ago by the National Bureau of Economic Research, the analytic methods of business cycles and economic indicators enable economists to forecast economic trends by examining the repetitive sequences that occur in business cycles. The methodology has proven to be an inexpensive and useful tool that is now used extensively throughout the world. In recent years, however, significant new developments have emerged in the field of business cycles and economic indicators. This volume contains twenty-two articles by international experts who are working with new and innovative approaches to indicator research. They cover advances in three broad areas of research: the use of new developments in economic theory and time-series analysis to rationalise existing systems of indicators; more appropriate methods to evaluate the forecasting records of leading indicators, particularly of turning point probability; and the development of new indicators.

Download or read book Business Cycles written by Victor Zarnowitz and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2007-11-01 with total page 613 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume presents the most complete collection available of the work of Victor Zarnowitz, a leader in the study of business cycles, growth, inflation, and forecasting.. With characteristic insight, Zarnowitz examines theories of the business cycle, including Keynesian and monetary theories and more recent rational expectation and real business cycle theories. He also measures trends and cycles in economic activity; evaluates the performance of leading indicators and their composite measures; surveys forecasting tools and performance of business and academic economists; discusses historical changes in the nature and sources of business cycles; and analyzes how successfully forecasting firms and economists predict such key economic variables as interest rates and inflation.

Download or read book Beating the Business Cycle written by Lakshman Achuthan and published by Crown Currency. This book was released on 2004-05-18 with total page 210 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: How can you make wise decisions about your company and your personal future when you have no idea where the economy is headed? The answer is, you can’t. But you can learn how to accurately predict turns in the economy so that you can see the road ahead. And BEATING THE BUSINESS CYCLE shows you how. In BEATING THE BUSINESS CYCLE, Lakshman Achuthan and Anirvan Banerji, the directors of the renowned Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) show how anyone can predict and profit from the inevitable booms and busts of the economy. Why should we believe them? Because while so many economists and financial gurus have failed to predict recessions in the past, ECRI’s forecasts are known for being uncannily accurate. The institute successfully predicted the U.S. recession of 2001 many months before the economists did; the 1990 recession and later recovery; and most recently, the weak U.S. recovery in 2002. ECRI is in constant demand by corporate America and the media. It is the “secret weapon” of companies from Disney to DuPont, the major fund managers, and many central banks. BEATING THE BUSINESS CYCLE is the first book to reveal how decision makers at all levels–managers, small business owners, and individuals–can see into the economy’s future when making key decisions. Should a large company search out new clients and build new factories or stores, or should it consider cost cutting and layoffs? Is it the right time for you to splurge on that luxury vacation or addition to your house, or would it be more prudent to cut back on big expenditures and save money for a rainy day? Written in an easy-to-understand, accessible style, BEATING THE BUSINESS CYCLE reveals which of the hundreds of economic indicators to trust and which ones to trash. It will give you the tools and confidence you need to make the right decisions at the right times–even when the rest of the investing and business world would persuade you otherwise. Whether you are a corporate manager or the owner of a small business, whether you have your money invested in stocks or in your home, BEATING THE BUSINESS CYCLE will give you the edge you need to trump the competition and stay ahead of the crowd.

Download or read book Predicting Growth Rates and Recessions written by Jonas Dovern and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 25 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Predicting U S Recessions written by Arturo Estrella and published by . This book was released on 1995 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Leading Indicators Predicting Economic Growth Recessions written by Domenik André Maier and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 90 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Key Economic Indicators as an Early Warning System of Recessions written by Anis Djermouni and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 65 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "Forecasting economic recessions is of strategic importance to all participants in the economy. All stakeholders are impacted to different degrees by recessions, thus early warning systems (EWS) of recession are of critical importance in order for them to take preemptive measures and policies to lessen its impact on society. The main sources of data to create these EWS models are economic indicators. These economic variables can be processed through statistical methods, in order to analyze and forecast potential recessions. These methods have the potential to reveal trends and signal recessions at different degrees of horizons, consistency and accuracy. These indicators can be selected in terms of how leading they are in terms of GDP fluctuation in order to have this early warning ability. Other key indicators can be also used if they are rich in information and are very reflective of the economic activity. This research employs eight US key economic indicators, most of which are leading indicators of economic activity. They will be used in order to cluster their volatilities which in this research will be done through the General Auto Regressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) regression analysis. These indicators will then be indexed using the Principal Component Analysis (PCA). Forecasting based upon these indicators will also be performed using the Mixed Data Sampling (MIDAS) method introduced by Ghysels et al (2004). The US indicators used in this research have a horizon of fifty years, from 1960 to 2016. They will be tested and converted accordingly, in order to make sure that stationarity is observed, which is important for the purpose of this study. The conditional variance of the GARCH regression for each indicators suggested that the most performing indicators were the bond spread and the share price index. This was assessed through their accuracy and horizon of prediction of recessions. The signals behaved better for these indicators with a longer horizon for bond spreads. Their conditional variances were indexed in order to model a more performing EWS. The marginal effects extracted showed that the CLI has a bigger impact and effect on the recession variable. The CLI has better EWS attributes but still displays false signals. The key indicators can be also used for forecasting purposes and trends can interpreted to foresee recessions. The MIDAS regression based on these key indicators showed that significant accuracy can be reached when using these variables. This confirms and comforts the idea that macro-economic data is of crucial importance to all stakeholders as they enable researchers to construct EWS of recessions"--Pages 3-4.

Download or read book Trend and Cycle in the Yield Curve written by Jacob Smith and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 41 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper presents a new procedure for forecasting recessions utilizing short-term (slope) dynamics present in the yield curve. Building on a large body of literature chronicling the relationship between the shape of the yield curve and the business cycle, this paper employs Dynamic Nelson-Siegel modeling to define the level, slope, and curvature characteristics of the term structure through time. Given these dynamics, the trend and cycle are extracted using various decomposition techniques. It is shown that cycles present within the slope factor are very robust predictors of recessions, correctly identifying recessions as much as eighteen months in advance. A “Predictive Power Score” is developed to quantify the procedure's performance. This score shows the superiority of the procedure over other common leading indicators including the yield spread.

Download or read book Do Leading Indicators Forecast U S Recessions A Nonlinear Re Evaluation Using Historical Data written by Vasilios Plakandaras and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page 28 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper analyses to what extent a selection of leading indicators is able to forecast U.S. recessions, by means of both dynamic probit models and Support Vector Machine (SVM) models, using monthly data from January 1871 to June 2016. The results suggest that the probit models predict U.S. recession periods more accurately than SVM models up to six months ahead, while the SVM models are more accurate over longer horizons. Furthermore, SVM models appear to distinguish between recessions and tranquil periods better than probit models do. Finally, the most accurate forecasting models are those that include oil, stock returns and the term spread as leading indicators.

Download or read book Current Issues in Economics and Finance written by Bandi Kamaiah and published by Springer. This book was released on 2018-01-12 with total page 227 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book discusses wide topics related to current issues in economic growth and development, international trade, macroeconomic and financial stability, inflation, monetary policy, banking, productivity, agriculture and food security. It is a collection of seventeen research papers selected based on their quality in terms of contemporary topic, newness in the methodology, and themes. All selected papers have followed an empirical approach to address research issues, and are segregated in five parts. Part one covers papers related to fiscal and price stability, monetary policy and economic growth. The second part contains works related to financial integration, capital market volatility and macroeconomic stability. Third part deals with issues related to international trade and economic growth. Part four covers topics related to productivity and firm performance. The final part discusses issues related to agriculture and food security. The book would be of interest to researchers, academicians as a ready reference on current issues in economics and finance.

Download or read book Economic Indicators For Dummies written by Michael Griffis and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2011-10-04 with total page 411 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Everything you need to easily get a handle on economic indicators In today's volatile, often troubling economic landscape, there are myriad statistics and reports that paint an economic picture that can sometimes resemble a work by Jackson Pollock. These complex and often-conflicting reports could vex even the savviest investor. Economic Indicators For Dummies explains how to interpret and use key global economic indicators to make solid investments, aid in business planning, and help develop informed decisions. In plain English, it breaks down the complex language and statistics to help you make sense of this critical information. You'll discover how to interpret economic data within the context of other sometimes-conflicting reports and statistics, and use the information to make profitable decisions. You'll understand the meaning of such data as employment indices and housing and construction stats and how they affect stocks, bonds, commodities and international markets . . . and how you can use these statistics to make investment decisions as well as plan strategic goals for business growth. Economic Indicators For Dummies breaks down dozens of statistics and patterns to give you a better understanding of how various sources of data and information can be used. Breaks down jargon and statistical concepts Covers how to use publicly available economic indicators to better position your portfolio, improve returns, and make sensible, long-range business plans Discusses the reliability and timeliness of the collected data, while helping investors prioritize the flow of economic information to avoid information overload Whether you're an investor, economics student, or business professional involved in making key strategic decisions for your company, Economic Indicators For Dummies has you covered.

Download or read book Short Term Forecasting for Empirical Economists written by Maximo Camacho and published by . This book was released on 2013-11-01 with total page 74 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Short-term Forecasting for Empirical Economists seeks to close the gap between research and applied short-term forecasting. The authors review some of the key theoretical results and empirical findings in the recent literature on short-term forecasting, and translate these findings into economically meaningful techniques to facilitate their widespread application to compute short-term forecasts in economics, and to monitor the ongoing business cycle developments in real time.