Download or read book A Parametric Cost Model for Estimating Operating and Support Costs of U S Navy Aircraft written by Mustafa Donmez and published by . This book was released on 2000-12-01 with total page 200 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This study provides parametric O&S cost models for future US Navy aircraft acquisition programs based on physical and performance parameters. The proposed parametric cost models provide decision makers with a tool for developing rough-order-of-magnitude annual O&S cost estimates for future US Navy aircraft acquisition programs. The historic aircraft cost data was provided by the Naval Center for Cost Analysis (NCCA) in a spreadsheet format and the data were extracted from the Navy Visibility and Maintenance of Operating and Support Cost (VAMOSC) data warehouse. After validating the assumption that the average annual O&S cost for any aircraft type/model/series is constant from year to year, cost estimating relationships are developed. The first model developed is based on multivariate regression. In this case, forward stepwise regression was used to find the model with the best fit. Since the multivariate regression model turns out to be impractical, having more than 30 variables in the equation, a tree-based model is presented as an alternative. Additionally, single variable cost estimating relationships are formulated based on the physical and performance parameters length, weight, and thrust.
Download or read book A Parametric Cost Model for Estimating Operating and Support Costs of U S Navy Non Nuclear Surface Ships written by James M. Brandt and published by . This book was released on 1999-06-01 with total page 194 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: With few effective decision-making tools to assess the affordability of major weapon systems, management of total ownership costs is continually misunderstood. Cost analysis provides a quick and reliable assessment of affordability. Because there is no standardized method for calculating reliable estimates of operating and support (O&S) costs (the principal component of total ownership cost), this thesis formulates a parametric cost model which can be used to determine the annual O&S costs of U.S. Navy (non-nuclear) surface ships based on known (or assumed) physical characteristics and manpower expectations. Source data for the cost model is obtained from the Navy Visibility and Management of O&S Costs (VAMOSC) database, a historical cost database maintained by the Naval Center for Cost Analysis (NCCA). Through standard regression and data analysis techniques, cost estimating relationships are developed for three major cost drivers: ship light displacement, ship overall length, and ship manpower. The formulated parametric cost model is a top-level and fairly reliable representation of average annual O&S cost, and it can be used by the DOD cost community to perform component cost analyses or independent cost estimates.
Download or read book Naval Aircraft Operating and Support Cost Model FY76 Revision written by ADMINISTRATIVE SCIENCES CORP ALEXANDRIA VA. and published by . This book was released on 1978 with total page 84 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This report documents the revisions of a parametric model for estimating Naval aircraft operating and support costs developed by Administrative Sciences Corporation. The model provides an estimate of average annual and life cycle O and S costs based on aircraft physical characteristics and basic program parameters using parametric cost-estimating relationships, cost factors and throughputs, and has been used to support numerous cost analyses prepared for CAIG review as well as other special studies such as the Naval Escort Force Mix Study and the Sea Based Air Study. It is updated often in order to remain responsive to each particular analysis, to reflect the changing nature of Naval aviation, and simply to remain timely. This report reflects the status of the model after incorporation of all FY1976 data. The bulk of the report is concerned with providing a clear, concise and complete definition of each cost element and the way it is estimated by the model.
Download or read book An Operating and Support Cost Model for Aircraft Carriers and Surface Combatants written by Henry L. Eskew and published by . This book was released on 1977 with total page 74 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The report is in two parts. Part I details the development and implementation of an operating and support cost model for aircraft carriers and surface combatants. Twenty-three O and S cost elements were identified and defined, with close adherence being maintained to the draft CAIG Operating and Support Cost Development Guide for Naval Ships, the Navy Resource Model (NARM), and the work of the Visibility and Management of Support Costs (VAMOSC) Study Group. Cost data were obtained from three principal sources: Navy Cost Information System (NCIS), NARM Program Factors, and the Center for Naval Analyses' SOCER Study. Procedures consisting of parametric cost-estimating relationships, cost factors and 'thruput' estimates were developed for the full set of cost elements. Those procedures were incorporated into an automated model which was then used to estimate annual O and S costs for the DD-963 and the FFG-7. Part II of the report summarizes all the work accomplished under the contract and provides a listing of all technical reports submitted. (Author).
Download or read book Naval Aircraft Operating and Support Cost Estimating Model FY77 Revision written by ADMINISTRATIVE SCIENCES CORP FALLS CHURCH VA. and published by . This book was released on 1979 with total page 200 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In fiscal 1974, Administrative Science Corp. developed a parametric cost-estimating model which has been updated and documented several times and used to support numerous Defense Systems Acquisition Review Council (DSARC) reviews as well as other cost reviews. This report provides a detailed documentation of the cost-estimating relationships (CER's) developed from FY77 data. In addition, the report has been significantly enhanced in order to serve as a handbook and training aid for Op-96D aircraft analysts. For each cost element in the structure, this report provides: (1) a definition; (2) discussion of the definition and other aspects of how, where, and why these costs are incurred, points of contact including organizational codes and telephone numbers, historical data, and sources for planning data; (3) cost-estimating relationship, including all computational procedures, regression statistics for the CER, and the data base; (4) an alternative CER (in many cases) with the same detail as above; and, (5) an example calculation.
Download or read book Operating and Support Cost Estimating Guide Sample Analysis Navy Aircraft at DSARC I written by COST ANALYSIS IMPROVEMENT GROUP WASHINGTON D C. and published by . This book was released on 1980 with total page 49 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The following sample of a CAIG(Cost Analysis Improvement Group) Operating and Support Cost Estimate Report covering a hypothetical case has been developed to further assist the cost analyst in the preparation of cost estimating reports submitted to the DSARC and CAIG during the acquisition process of a new weapon system. The sample is intended to show an example of how Operating and Support Costs can be developed for CAIG review with available data bases and one example of an appropriate format for presentation of cost estimates. The existing A-7E data base was used only to illustrate the need to relate an estimate to an existing similar system and to ensure a constant relationship between values and the Cost Element Structure. Each case should address that data which is the most complete and accurate for its purposes. The level of detail depicted in this example may be greater than that which is available or appropriate to a specific case.
Download or read book Estimating Operating and Support Cost Models for U S Naval Ships written by Chung-wu Ting and published by . This book was released on 1993 with total page 74 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: With the end of the Cold War, the winds of military downsizing are blowing all over the world. Downsizing means fewer personnel, less facilities and smaller military budget. Therefore, understanding the relationships among factors responsible for force operating costs is extremely important when facing downsizing budgetary decisions. This study analyzes the U.S. Navy main combatant vessels' Operating and support costs. It seeks to reveal basic relationships of O and S costs through accounting and structural methods. The accounting oriented analysis found the VAMOSC-SHIPS and Jane's combined database to be relatively accurate with the exception of nuclear submarines and nuclear aircraft carriers. The structural analysis found that the overhaul cost should be analyzed separately due to essential differences used to calculate overhaul costs and a 1985 policy revision to ship overhaul. O and S cost relationships between factors other than overhauls were strong. Manpower was found to have the most dramatic effect on determining O and S costs.
Download or read book Naval Aircraft Operating and Support Cost Estimating Model FY78 Revision written by ADMINISTRATIVE SCIENCES CORP FALLS CHURCH VA. and published by . This book was released on 1980 with total page 112 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This report provides the updated equations using fiscal 1978 data for the Administrative Sciences Corporation Aircraft Operating and Support (O & S) Cost-Estimating Model. It is intended to be used as an addendum to Naval Aircraft Operating and Support Cost-Estimating Model - FY77 Revision, ASC-R-120, February 1979, which contains an extensive discussion of each cost element as well as other background material. Several initiatives to improve the quality and accuracy of the cost-estimating relationships were incorporated into this version of the model. The most notable is the examination of Replenishment Spares consumption over a two-year period rather than a single year. As more data becomes available, the period will be lengthened even more. Substantial work was also done in the areas of Engine Rework and Modifications. For engines, the recently implemented Engine Analytical Maintenance Plan which has changed the Navy's engine maintenance philosophy for most engines from one of scheduled overhaul to one without scheduled overhaul was investigated. This new policy provides for engine components to be replaced/overhauled periodically but not the entire engine. Although much useful data was obtained on engine removal rates and differentiation of maintenance costs for engines utilized in different aircraft (e.g., the J52-P8 in the A-4E and the A-6E); the data does not yet reflect the new maintenance policy.
Download or read book Operating and Support Cost Estimating Guide Sample Analysis Navy Aircraft at DSARC Defense Systems Acquisition Review Council II written by COST ANALYSIS IMPROVEMENT GROUP WASHINGTON D C. and published by . This book was released on 1980 with total page 47 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The following sample of a CAIG(Cost Analysis Improvement Group) Operating and Support Cost Estimate Report covering a hypothetical case has been developed to further assist the cost analyst in the preparation of cost estimating reports submitted to the DSARC and CAIG during the acquisition process of a new weapon system. The sample is intended to show an example of how Operating and Support Costs can be developed for CAIG review with available data bases and one example of an appropriate format for presentation of cost estimates. The existing A-7E data base was used only to illustrate the need to relate an estimate to an existing similar system and to ensure a constant relationship between values and the Cost Element Structure. Each case should address that data which is the most complete and accurate for its purposes. The level of detail depicted in this example may be greater than that which is available or appropriate to a specific case.
Download or read book A Parametric Cost Model for Estimating Acquisition Costs of Conventional U S Navy Surface Ships written by Kirk J. Loftus and published by . This book was released on 1999-09-01 with total page 108 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: When attempting to predict the acquisition costs of U.S. Navy surface ships, current models cannot produce a repeatable answer when the details of the acquisition program are not well defined. This thesis formulates a parametric model that predicts the average procurement cost of a conventional U.S. Navy surface ship based upon known (or assumed) physical and performance characteristics. The source data for the cost model is obtained from U.S. Weapons Systems Costs, a tabulation of annual procurement costs for major system programs, published by Data Search Associates. Standard regression techniques return cost estimating relationships able to predict average procurement cost from ship light displacement, ship overall length, ship propulsion shaft horsepower or number of propulsion engines. The formulated parametric cost model is approximate and appropriate only for rough order of magnitude studies, but can be used by the DoD cost community to produce justifiable estimates when other models do not have sufficient information to generate an answer.
Download or read book Estimating C 17 Operating and Support Costs written by Christopher D. Purvis and published by . This book was released on 2001-03-01 with total page 172 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This research provides justification for experimenting with system dynamics (SD) for performing Operation and Support Cost estimates. For the C-17 Globemaster III cargo aircraft, these costs could exceed $64 billion dollars. Also, many of our weapon systems are beginning to reach the end of their effective life span, and discussions about the impact of aging, on aircraft, has become a hot topic in the literature. System Dynamics is a modeling methodology developed in 1958, but never used extensively for cost estimating. SD offers unique capabilities to the cost estimator, including the ability to model causal relationships. This capability offers the cost estimator the ability to estimate O&S costs, spares availability, and mission capable rates, throughout the life span of a weapon system. The primary goal of this thesis endeavor is to prove the applicability of SD for cost estimating by demonstrating the various outputs of a SD model, including fixed and variable costs; secondarily, showing how the results from the SD model can provide a better estimate of future costs, when compared to models in use today.
Download or read book Analysis and Forecasting of U S Navy Operating and Support O S Costs for Rotary Aircraft written by Christopher J. Wilkes and published by . This book was released on 2004-03-01 with total page 192 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This research explores forecasting techniques to estimate the Cost per Flying Hour (CPFH) for Navy rotary aircraft. Three separate forecasting techniques were evaluated to better predict the CPFH for better estimating and budgeting by the U.S. Navy. The process begins by empirically analyzing Operating & Support cost categories for each helicopter. Trends were examined in CPFH. For forecasting purposes, actual CPFH figures were compiled from 1997 to 2003 for the CH-46D, the CH-53D, the MH-53E, the SH-60F, the UH-1N, and the UH- 3H helicopters. The forecasting techniques explored were the 3-year moving average, the single exponential smoothing method, and Holt's linear method. These forecasting techniques were used to forecast for FY03 in evaluating the best methodology to forecast the CPFH for FY04. By comparing both the budgeted and forecasted figures for FY00 to FY02 to the actual CPFH figures in the same years, CPFH was more accurately forecasted. Actual, budgeted, and forecasted CPFH were compared for FY03. Holt's linear method was deemed the best forecasting method for 67 percent of the time series analyzed. The analysis was based on summary statistics and calculations. Finally, FY04 CPFH was forecasted for each helicopter using the chosen forecasting method.
Download or read book Estimating Operating and Support Models for U S Air Force Aircraft written by Ming-Cheng Wu and published by . This book was released on 2000-03-01 with total page 76 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The USAF Visibility and Management of Operating and Support Cost (VAMOSC) system is an information system which reports historical O&S costs of Air Force weapon systems. Source data for VAMOSC comes from a number of USAF financial, logistics, inventory, and operating systems. This centralization and consolidation of O&S cost data provides information that helps weapon system managers and planners make better decisions for DoD and USAF in the operation, maintenance, and management of weapon systems. In earlier analysis, flyaway costs, flying hours, number of aircraft and aircraft fleet age were identified as important variables for explaining and predicting O&S Costs. The earlier models need to be re-estimated to determine whether aircraft types and operation mission types are applicable and how they have separate effects on O&S costs. This thesis shows that the structure of the earlier models continues to be applicable. The models, therefore, are a useful tool for understanding the determinants of O&S cost.
Download or read book An Estimation of USAF Aircraft Operating and Support Cost Relations written by Gregory G. Hildebrandt and published by . This book was released on 1990 with total page 88 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: To understand the availability of data to identify operating and support (O & S) costs, this Note develops aggregative cost estimating relationships to explain O & S costs. A database called VAMOSC is used in conjunction with other information on aircraft characteristics to relate O & S costs per aircraft to flying hours per aircraft, flyaway cost, number of aircraft, and design age. At the total O & S cost level, flyaway cost is an acceptable proxy for aircraft type and the mission design series year of initial operational capability. These cost estimating relationships give impressive explanatory results; whether they have equal predictive power remains to be seen. They may be helpful for assessing Air Force trade-offs between modernization and operating tempo and eventually for understanding the cost of achieving alternative readiness levels.
Download or read book Unit Cost Analysis written by John Frederic Schank and published by RAND Corporation. This book was released on 1986 with total page 344 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This report presents a consistent and complete methodology for comparing annual operating and support costs of active and reserve units within and across all components of the force. Existing service models and data were modified or manipulated to create active and reserve annual cost models and cost factors. The report describes the general approach and uses service-specific case studies to demonstrate methods and cost factor derivations. Case studies include: Air Force F-4D and C-130E squadrons; Army mechanized infantry, tank, field artillery, and combat engineering battalions; and Navy F-4S squadrons and FF1052 frigates. Results, given in FY 1983 dollars, show wide variances in annual active and reserve unit costs across units and services, emphasizing the need for a case-by-case approach to unit costing. Technical appendixes present the detailed descriptions of cost factor derivations and data sources. A companion document, R-3210/1-RA, provides a summary of this report in executive briefing format.
Download or read book An Appraisal of Models Used in Life Cycle Cost Estimation for USAF Aircraft Systems written by Kenneth E. Marks and published by . This book was released on 1978 with total page 136 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Although life cycle analysis is widely used as a management tool, considerable uncertainty still exists about its effectiveness with respect to economic tradeoffs, funding decisions, and resource allocations. This report evaluates some of the most widely used life cycle cost models: AFR l73-10 models (BACE and CACE); the Logistics Support Cost model; the Logistics Composite model; the MOD-METRIC model; AFM 26-3 Manpower Standards; Air Force Logistics Command Depot Maintenance Cost Equations; the DAPCA model; and the PRICE model. The models are rated within a framework incorporating a set of cycle cost elements and a set of cost driving factors. Color-coded illustrations summarize the results. The models are shown to have many shortcomings that limit their usefulness for life cycle analyses in which estimates of absolute, incremental cost are required. Specific areas are identified where driving factor/cost element combinations are not adequately addressed.
Download or read book Estimating and Explaining the Production Cost of High technology Systems written by O. Douglas Moses and published by . This book was released on 1989 with total page 76 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This study tests relationships between measures of the state-of-the- art of technology and advances in technology with production cost. The analysis is conducted using a sample of military aircraft. Parametric cost estimating models are developed. Actual production costs are compared with estimated production costs predicted from the models to create measure of cost overruns and cost underruns. A set of factors that are associated with instances of cost over/underruns are identified. These factors reflect aspects of the aircraft program, the political and economic environment at the time of commencement of production on the aircraft program, and the financial condition of the prime contractor. Keywords: Regression analysis, Cost models, Cost variances, Aircraft procurement. (KR).
