Download or read book A Leading Indicators Approach to the Predictability of Currency Crises written by Bengi Kibritcioglu and published by . This book was released on 2001 with total page 31 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this paper, we present a leading economic indicators approach to the predictability of currency crises in Turkey. After summarizing main theoretical models of currency crises and discussing the possible origins of financial crises in the European ERM countries (1992-93), Turkey (1994) and Southeast Asian countries (1997-98), we survey the empirical literature on the predictability of currency crises. Our leading economic indicators approach based on Burns and Mitchell (1946) shows that terms-of-trade, market-determined exchange rate over official exchange rate and some specific survey data can be considered as major leading economic indicators of currency crises in Turkey.
Download or read book Leading Indicators of Currency Crises written by Graciela Kaminsky and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 43 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines the empirical evidence on currency crises and proposes a specific early warning system. This system involves monitoring the evolution of several indicators that tend to exhibit an unusual behavior in the periods preceding a crisis. When an indicator exceeds a certain threshold value, this is interpreted as a warning quot;signalquot; that a currency crisis may take place within the following 24 months. The variables that have the best track record within this approach include exports, deviations of the real exchange rate from trend, the ratio of broad money to gross international reserves, output, and equity prices.
Download or read book Are Currency Crises Predictable written by Andrew Berg and published by . This book was released on 1998 with total page 68 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Leading Indicators of Currency Crises written by Carmen Reinhart and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 43 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines the empirical evidence on currency crises and proposes a specific early warning system. This system involves monitoring the evolution of several indicators that tend to exhibit an unusual behavior in the periods preceding a crisis. When an indicator exceeds a certain threshold value, this is interpreted as a warning "signal" that a currency crisis may take place within the following 24 months. The variables that have the best track record within this approach include exports, deviations of the real exchange rate from trend, the ratio of broad money to gross international reserves, output, and equity prices.
Download or read book Early Indicators of Currency Crises Review of Some Literature written by Magdalena Tomczynska and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Financial crises have become relatively frequent events since the beginning of the 1980s. They have taken three main forms: currency crises, banking crises, or both - so called twin crises. As the number of developed economies, developing countries, and economies in transition experienced severe financial crashes researchers are trying to propose a framework for systemic analyses. That is why attempts to advance the understanding of features leading to the outbreak of financial crisis as well as the reasons of vulnerability have become more and more important. In recent years a number of efforts have been undertaken to identify variables that act as early warning signals for crises. The purpose of this paper is to provide some perspective on the issue of early warning signals of vulnerability to currency crises. In particular, it is aimed at presenting and highlighting the main findings of theoretical literature in this area. An effective warning system should consider a broad variety of indicators, as currency crises seem to be usually associated with multiple economic and sometimes political problems. Indicators that have proven to be particularly useful in anticipating crises and received empirical support include the development of international reserves, real exchange rate, domestic credit, credit to the public sector, domestic inflation, and structure and financing of public debt. Other indicators that have found support are trade balance, export performance, money growth, M2/international reserves ratio, foreign interest rates, real GDP growth, and fiscal deficit. Many of the proposed leading indicators have been able to predict particular crises, however, only few have showed ability to do so consistently. Generally, economic models can be said to be more successful in predicting crises that erupt because of weak fundamentals, which make country vulnerable to adverse shocks. They are less likely in anticipating crises due to selffulfilling expectations or pure contagion effects. So far economists are only able to identify situations in which an economy could face the risk of a financial crisis. This is most because of the well-known fact that if we knew the crisis would have already occurred. Warning indicators seem to be unlikely to predict crises in precise way but their analyses can provide extended information about impending problems what enables to take preventive measures.
Download or read book Leading Indicators of Currency Crises written by Graciela Laura Kaminsky and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1997-07-01 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines the empirical evidence on currency crises and proposes a specific early warning system. This system involves monitoring the evolution of several indicators that tend to exhibit an unusual behavior in the periods preceding a crisis. When an indicator exceeds a certain threshold value, this is interpreted as a warning “signal” that a currency crisis may take place within the following 24 months. The variables that have the best track record within this approach include exports, deviations of the real exchange rate from trend, the ratio of broad money to gross international reserves, output, and equity prices.
Download or read book Are Currency Crises Predictable A Test written by Ms.Catherine A. Pattillo and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1998-11-01 with total page 62 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper evaluates three models for predicting currency crises that were proposed before 1997. The idea is to answer the question: if we had been using these models in late 1996, how well armed would we have been to predict the Asian crisis? The results are mixed but somewhat encouraging. One model, and our modifications to it, provide useful forecasts, at least compared with a naive benchmark. The head-to-head comparison also sheds light on the economics of currency crises, the nature of the Asian crisis, and issues in the empirical modeling of currency crises.
Download or read book Estimating Indexes of Coincident and Leading Indicators written by Tahsin Saadi-Sedik and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2003-08-01 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The analysis of coincident and leading indicators can help policymakers gauge the short-term direction of economic activity. While such analysis is well established in advanced economies, it has received relatively little attention in many emerging market and developing economies, reflecting in part the lack of sufficient historical data to determine the reliability of these indicators. This paper presents an econometric approach to deriving composite indexes of coincident and leading indicators for a small open economy, Jordan. The results show that, even with limited monthly observations, it is possible to establish meaningful economic and statistically significant relations between indicators from different sectors of the economy and the present and future direction of economic activity.
Download or read book New Dynamics in Banking and Finance written by Nesrin Özataç and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2022-04-27 with total page 209 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume presents current developments in the fields of banking and finance from an international perspective. Featuring contributions from the 5th International Conference on Banking and Finance Perspectives (ICBFP), this volume serves as a valuable forum for discussing current issues and trends in the banking and financial sectors, especially in light of the global economic challenges triggered by financial institutions. Using the latest theoretical models, new perspectives are brought to topics such as the global financial markets, international banking and finance, microfinance, fintech, and corporate finance. Offering an opportunity to explore the challenges of a rapidly changing industry, this volume will be of interest to academics, policy makers, and scholars in the fields of banking, insurance, and finance.
Download or read book Financial Cycles Early Warning Indicators of Banking Crises written by Ms. Sally Chen and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-04-29 with total page 79 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Can the upturns and downturns in financial variables serve as early warning indicators of banking crises? Using data from 59 advanced and emerging economies, we show that financial overheating can be detected in real time. Equity prices and output gap are the best leading indicators in advanced markets; in emerging markets, these are equity and property prices and credit gap. Moreover, aggregating this information flags financial crisis many years before the crisis. Lastly, we find that the length of financial cycles is of medium-term frequency, calling into question the longer frequency widely used in the estimation of countercyclical capital buffers.
Download or read book Financial Crises Explanations Types and Implications written by Mr.Stijn Claessens and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-01-30 with total page 66 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper reviews the literature on financial crises focusing on three specific aspects. First, what are the main factors explaining financial crises? Since many theories on the sources of financial crises highlight the importance of sharp fluctuations in asset and credit markets, the paper briefly reviews theoretical and empirical studies on developments in these markets around financial crises. Second, what are the major types of financial crises? The paper focuses on the main theoretical and empirical explanations of four types of financial crises—currency crises, sudden stops, debt crises, and banking crises—and presents a survey of the literature that attempts to identify these episodes. Third, what are the real and financial sector implications of crises? The paper briefly reviews the short- and medium-run implications of crises for the real economy and financial sector. It concludes with a summary of the main lessons from the literature and future research directions.
Download or read book Public Sector Crisis Management written by Alexander Rozanov and published by BoD – Books on Demand. This book was released on 2020-10-28 with total page 176 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The term “crisis management” was applied to business only after the publication of the monograph “Crisis Management: Planning for the Inevitable” by Steven Fink in 1986. Since then, this term has turned from a journalistic cliche into a scientific concept, and its concept, theory, and methodology have been further developed.It is the turning point in the meaning of the word “crisis” that indicates the possibility of changing the situation by making decisions that contribute to changing the vector of development of events from destruction to recovery and further development. From the above, the general definition of the term “crisis management” follows as a process of saving the system from its destructive effects. The activity of the crisis manager is always temporary and stops as a result of a favorable overcoming of the crisis or vice versa—the destruction of the system. Therefore, the criterion for the success of a manager in emergency crisis management is effectiveness as an absolute measure of the presence or absence of a result—it either exists or does not exist.
Download or read book Turkish Foreign Policy in Post Cold War Era written by İdris Bal and published by Universal-Publishers. This book was released on 2004 with total page 480 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: With the end of Cold War discipline the world has entered a new era. Parameters have changed; new handicaps as well as new opportunities have been created for countries. Turkey as a neighbor of former USSR, a member of NATO and located at the center of a sensitive region covered by Caucasus, Balkans and Middle East, has been affected by the end of Cold War radically. Turkey has lost some of her bargaining cards in the new era and therefore has needed new arguments. This need encouraged Turkey to take active steps in Post Cold War era. This book analyzes Turkey s relations with US, EU, Balkans, Middle East, Caucasus, Central Asia, Russia, China and Japan. At the same time, effects of economic crises and domestic developments on foreign policy, Turkish model in Turkish foreign policy, water conflict and Kurdish problem are analyzed as well. To conclude, it is possible to argue that although Turkey lost some of her bargaining cards in Post Cold War era, new developments pushed Turkey to the center of world politics rather then to periphery. Contributors: Meliha Benli Altunisik, Deniz Ülke Aribogan, Hüseyin Bagci, Idris Bal, Zeyno Baran, Fulya Kip Barnard, Erol Bulut, Ibrahim S. Canbolat, Saziye Gazioglu, Ramazan Gözen, Saban Kardas, H. Bülent Olcay, Cengiz Okman, Henry E. Paniev, Victor Panin, Dirk Rochtus, Faruk Sönmezoglu, Gül Turan, Ilter Turan, Mustafa Türkes, Nasuh Uslu.
Download or read book European Banking written by Ö. Olgu and published by Springer. This book was released on 2015-12-04 with total page 284 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Despite considerable progress on political and economic convergence over the last decade, financial structures of individual countries within the EU remain diverse. This book considers the future prospects of the banking industry in the context of enlargement, application of the IFRS and a potential new member country, Turkey.
Download or read book IMF Staff Papers Volume 52 No 3 written by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2005-12-22 with total page 193 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This last issue for 2005 comprises seven new papers, including a contribution to the journal's occasional Special Data Section about domestic debt markets in Sub-Saharan Africa, and also an in-depth look at the internal job market for entry-level economists at the IMF. The remaining articles cover toics as diverse as: modeling of asset markets, exchange rates in developing countries, international bank claims on Latin America, the effectiveness of "early warning" systems, and the use (by emerging market countries) of the IMF's Special Data Dissemination Standard (SDDS).
Download or read book Handbook of Research on Financial and Banking Crisis Prediction Through Early Warning Systems written by Qaiser Munir and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Addresses the inequity of developed and developing nations from the bottom up through an exploration of current literature, specific case-studies, and data-based recommendations for new crisis indicators. It explores such topics as the Greek debt crisis, electronic banking, and financial crises in developing economies.
Download or read book Annual Report written by Reserve Bank of India and published by . This book was released on 2000 with total page 364 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
