Download or read book A Gaussian Affine Term Structure Model of Interest Rates and Credit Spreads written by Zhiping Zhou and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We estimate a no-arbitrage term structure model of U.S. Treasury yields and corporate bond spreads with both economic factors and latent factors as drivers of term structure dynamics. We consider two sets of economic factors: macro factors consisting of inflation and real activity, and financial market factors consisting of funding liquidity and market volatility. We show that financial market factors have limited effects on the Treasury yield curve but substantial impacts on the credit spread term structure. In particular, negative liquidity shocks widen credit spreads, and this effect is more pronounced for short-term corporate bonds. We also find that out-of-sample forecasts for credit spreads improve when financial market factors are incorporated and when no-arbitrage restrictions are imposed. We also propose a minimum-chi-square method for estimating the term structure models of interest rate and credit spreads, which is more efficient and accurate than the widespread maximum-likelihood estimation.
Download or read book Modeling the Term Structure of Interest Rates written by Rajna Gibson and published by Now Publishers Inc. This book was released on 2010 with total page 171 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Modeling the Term Structure of Interest Rates provides a comprehensive review of the continuous-time modeling techniques of the term structure applicable to value and hedge default-free bonds and other interest rate derivatives.
Download or read book Discrete Affine Term Structure Models Applied to the Government Debt and Fiscal Imbalances written by Vicente Jakas and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 46 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper discusses the relationship between government deficits and changes in total debt outstanding as well as the relationship between yields and real interest rates, inflation expectations and credit spreads using inflation linked swap data. This study also shows how affine term structure models (ATSMs) can be used to link the theory of the price level to term structure dynamics. When central banks are independent, increases in government deficits result in increases in the credit spreads and not necessarily in increases in the price level. Empirical results show that when modelling Spanish and Greek government yields fitted values improve significantly when credit spreads are included in the state vector. Most importantly, this study shows how affine term structure models can be used for the analysis of the time path of changes in government debt, government primary surplus and credit spreads. Finally, another novelty of this work is to apply the ATSM methodology to describe, for instance, how EU-governments' deficits deteriorate as a consequence of the time path of shocks in macroeconomic variables such as unemployment, as unemployment shocks can have widening effects on governments' fiscal imbalances and this will vary depending on the governments' risk profile.
Download or read book Term Structure Models written by Damir Filipovic and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2009-07-28 with total page 259 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Changing interest rates constitute one of the major risk sources for banks, insurance companies, and other financial institutions. Modeling the term-structure movements of interest rates is a challenging task. This volume gives an introduction to the mathematics of term-structure models in continuous time. It includes practical aspects for fixed-income markets such as day-count conventions, duration of coupon-paying bonds and yield curve construction; arbitrage theory; short-rate models; the Heath-Jarrow-Morton methodology; consistent term-structure parametrizations; affine diffusion processes and option pricing with Fourier transform; LIBOR market models; and credit risk. The focus is on a mathematically straightforward but rigorous development of the theory. Students, researchers and practitioners will find this volume very useful. Each chapter ends with a set of exercises, that provides source for homework and exam questions. Readers are expected to be familiar with elementary Itô calculus, basic probability theory, and real and complex analysis.
Download or read book On the Estimation of Term Structure Models and An Application to the United States written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2010-11-01 with total page 64 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper discusses the estimation of models of the term structure of interest rates. After reviewing the term structure models, specifically the Nelson-Siegel Model and Affine Term- Structure Model, this paper estimates the terms structure of Treasury bond yields for the United States with pre-crisis data. This paper uses a software developed by Fund staff for this purpose. This software makes it possible to estimate the term structure using at least nine models, while opening up the possibility of generating simulated paths of the term structure.
Download or read book Dynamic Term Structure Modeling written by Sanjay K. Nawalkha and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2007-05-23 with total page 722 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Praise for Dynamic Term Structure Modeling "This book offers the most comprehensive coverage of term-structure models I have seen so far, encompassing equilibrium and no-arbitrage models in a new framework, along with the major solution techniques using trees, PDE methods, Fourier methods, and approximations. It is an essential reference for academics and practitioners alike." --Sanjiv Ranjan Das Professor of Finance, Santa Clara University, California, coeditor, Journal of Derivatives "Bravo! This is an exhaustive analysis of the yield curve dynamics. It is clear, pedagogically impressive, well presented, and to the point." --Nassim Nicholas Taleb author, Dynamic Hedging and The Black Swan "Nawalkha, Beliaeva, and Soto have put together a comprehensive, up-to-date textbook on modern dynamic term structure modeling. It is both accessible and rigorous and should be of tremendous interest to anyone who wants to learn about state-of-the-art fixed income modeling. It provides many numerical examples that will be valuable to readers interested in the practical implementations of these models." --Pierre Collin-Dufresne Associate Professor of Finance, UC Berkeley "The book provides a comprehensive description of the continuous time interest rate models. It serves an important part of the trilogy, useful for financial engineers to grasp the theoretical underpinnings and the practical implementation." --Thomas S. Y. Ho, PHD President, Thomas Ho Company, Ltd, coauthor, The Oxford Guide to Financial Modeling
Download or read book Credit Spreads and the Term Structure of Interest Rates written by Charlotte Christiansen and published by . This book was released on 2000 with total page 21 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Macro Factors and the Affine Term Structure of Interest Rates written by Tao Wu and published by . This book was released on 2001 with total page 62 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Affine Term Structure Models and Interest Rate Risk written by Mario Alessandro Maggi and published by . This book was released on 2001 with total page 116 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Term Structure Dynamics with Macroeconomic Factors written by Ha-Il Park and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Affine term structure models (ATSMs) are known to have a trade-off in predicting future Treasury yields and fitting the time-varying volatility of interest rates. First, I empirically study the role of macroeconomic variables in simultaneously achieving these two goals under affine models. To this end, I incorporate a liquidity demand theory via a measure of the velocity of money into affine models. I find that this considerably reduces the statistical tension between matching the first and second moments of interest rates. In terms of forecasting yields, the models with the velocity of money outperform among the ATSMs examined, including those with inflation and real activity. My result is robust across maturities, forecasting horizons, risk price specifications, and the number of latent factors. Next, I incorporate latent macro factors and the spread factor between the short-term Treasury yield and the federal funds rate into an affine term structure model by imposing cross-equation restrictions from no-arbitrage using daily data. In doing so, I identify the highfrequency monetary policy rule that describes the central bank's reaction to expected inflation and real activity at daily frequency. I find that my affine model with macro factors and the spread factor shows better forecasting performance.
Download or read book A Hidden Markov Chain Model for the Term Structure of Bond Credit Risk Spreads written by Lyn C. Thomas and published by . This book was released on 2001 with total page 36 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper provides a Markov chain model for the term structure and credit risk spreads of bond prices. It allows dependency between the stochastic process modeling the interest rate and the Markov chain process describing changes in the credit rating of the bonds by their mutual dependency on a hidden Markov chain, which can be thought of as describing the underlying economic conditions. The model also allows a new interpretation of risk premia used in previous approaches and also uses a linear programming approach to strip the bonds of their coupons in such a way as to guarantee there is no mis-pricing.
Download or read book Affine Term structure Models written by David Bolder and published by . This book was released on 2001 with total page 60 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Affine models describe the stylized time-series properties of the term structure of interest rates in a reasonable manner, they generalize relatively easily to higher dimensions, and a vast academic literature exists relating to their implementation. This combination of characteristics makes the affine class a natural introductory point for modelling interest rate dynamics. The author summarizes and synthesizes the theoretical and practical specifics relating to this analytically attractive class of models. This summary is accomplished in a self-contained manner with sufficient detail so that relatively few technical points will be left for the reader to ponder. As such, this paper represents a first step towards advancing the Bank of Canada's research agenda in this area, with a view to using these models to assist with practical debt and risk-management problems currently under study.
Download or read book Extended Gaussian Term Structure Models and Credit Risk Applications written by Marco Realdon and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper presents three factor Extended Gaussian term structure models (EGM) to price default-free and defaultable bonds. To price default-free bonds EGM assume that the instantaneous interest rate is a possibly non-linear but monotonic function of three latent factors that follow correlated Gaussian processes. The bond pricing equation can be solved conveniently through separation of variables and finite difference methods. The merits of EGM are hetero-schedastic yields, unrestricted correlation between factors and the absence of the admissibility restrictions that affect canonical affine models. Unlike quadratic term structure models, EGM are amenable to maximum likelihood estimation, since observed yields are sufficient statistics to infer the latent factors. Empirical evidence from US Treasury yields shows that EGM fit observed yields quite well and are estimable. EGM are of even greater interest to price fixed and floating rate defaultable bonds. A reduced form, a credit rating based and a structural credit risk valuation model are presented: these credit risk models are EGM and their common merit is that bond pricing remains tractable through separation of variables even if interest rate risk and credit risk are arbitrarily correlated.
Download or read book Interest Rate Models Theory and Practice written by Damiano Brigo and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2007-09-26 with total page 1016 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The 2nd edition of this successful book has several new features. The calibration discussion of the basic LIBOR market model has been enriched considerably, with an analysis of the impact of the swaptions interpolation technique and of the exogenous instantaneous correlation on the calibration outputs. A discussion of historical estimation of the instantaneous correlation matrix and of rank reduction has been added, and a LIBOR-model consistent swaption-volatility interpolation technique has been introduced. The old sections devoted to the smile issue in the LIBOR market model have been enlarged into a new chapter. New sections on local-volatility dynamics, and on stochastic volatility models have been added, with a thorough treatment of the recently developed uncertain-volatility approach. Examples of calibrations to real market data are now considered. The fast-growing interest for hybrid products has led to a new chapter. A special focus here is devoted to the pricing of inflation-linked derivatives. The three final new chapters of this second edition are devoted to credit. Since Credit Derivatives are increasingly fundamental, and since in the reduced-form modeling framework much of the technique involved is analogous to interest-rate modeling, Credit Derivatives -- mostly Credit Default Swaps (CDS), CDS Options and Constant Maturity CDS - are discussed, building on the basic short rate-models and market models introduced earlier for the default-free market. Counterparty risk in interest rate payoff valuation is also considered, motivated by the recent Basel II framework developments.
Download or read book Affine Term Structure Models written by David Jamieson Bolder and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 68 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Affine models describe the stylized time-series properties of the term structure of interest rates in a reasonable manner, they generalize relatively easily to higher dimensions, and a vast academic literature exists relating to their implementation. This combination of characteristics makes the affine class a natural introductory point for modelling interest rate dynamics. The author summarizes and synthesizes the theoretical and practical specifics relating to this analytically attractive class of models. This summary is accomplished in a self-contained manner with sufficient detail so that relatively few technical points will be left for the reader to ponder. As such, this paper represents a first step towards advancing the Bank of Canada's research agenda in this area, with a view to using these models to assist with practical debt and risk-management problems currently under study.
Download or read book Long Memory Affine Term Structure Models written by Adam Golinski and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 61 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We develop a Gaussian discrete time essentially affine term structure model with long memory state variables. This feature reconciles the strong persistence observed in nominal yields and inflation with the theoretical implications of affine models, especially for long maturities. We characterise in closed-form the dynamic and cross-sectional implications of long memory for our model. We explain how long memory can naturally arise within the term structure of interest rates, providing a theoretical underpinning for our model. Despite the infinite-dimensional structure that long memory implies, we show how to cast the model in state space and estimate it by maximum likelihood. An empirical application of our model is presented.
Download or read book Direct Estimation of the Risk Neutral Factor Dynamics of Affine Term Structure Models written by Dennis Bams and published by . This book was released on 1998 with total page 54 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
