Download or read book A Decomposition Analysis of First Term Attrition in the U S Military written by Haluk Elis and published by . This book was released on 1999-09-01 with total page 149 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: His thesis analyzes causal factors associated with first-term attrition for all four military services. In particular, it seeks to identify demographic and other factors that have influenced changes in attrition over time. The thesis draws on data provided by the Defense Manpower Data Center on entry cohorts for fiscal years 1984, 1989, and 1994. Separate multivariate models are estimated for each service and each year. These models are used to implement a decomposition analysis of the changes in attrition between 1984 and 1989, between 1989 and 1994 and between 1984 and 1994. The decomposition technique analyzes the portion of the changes in attrition over these periods that is attributable to changes in the demographic composition of the entry cohorts and the portion due to changes in the estimated model coefficients. The thesis finds that sex, education, race, AFQT scores, and months spent in Delayed Entry Program consistently affect attrition behavior while the relationship between age at entry and attrition is not clear. The decomposition technique used in the thesis finds that there are generally big differences between the predicted and the actual changes in attrition and that the direction of predicted and actual change is generally in opposite directions. The thesis recommends that the role of other factors, such as service-specific policies be researched to keep attrition from further rising and that the decomposition technique be replicated for other beginning and end points.

Download or read book Predicting 36 Month Attrition in the U S Military written by James V. Marrone and published by . This book was released on 2020-06-15 with total page 106 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The author analyzes first-term attrition, using administrative data for all accessions across four military service branches in fiscal years 2002 through 2013 to show what characteristics predict attrition across the first 36 months of service.

Download or read book Technical Report written by and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 420 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Analysis of Early Military Attrition Behavior written by and published by . This book was released on 1984 with total page 82 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This study analyzes the influence of pre-service experiences and initial military job match on military attrition of first-term enlisted males during their first six months of service (early attrition). The dynamics of attrition behavior are examined in terms of recent firm-specific human capital and job matching models. The determinants of early attrition are compared across services and with those of civilian job separations of young workers. Some of the conclusions drawn are: enlistees with a history of frequency civilian job changes or a recent spell of unemployment are attrition-prone; aspects of the initial military occupational assignment like individual suitability and satisfaction do not significantly influence early attrition; the early attrition rate of nonhigh-school graduates is nearly twice that of graduates even after controlling for previous work experiences, aptitude, and other variables that influence attrition; and older recruits are more attrition-prone than younger recruits.

Download or read book Predicting U S Army Enlisted Attrition After Initial Entry Training IET Using Survival Analysis Sophisticated Research Modeling Using Medical Information Dental and Hearing Readiness Important written by U S Military and published by . This book was released on 2019-08-22 with total page 108 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: For the first time since 2005, the U.S. Army fell short of its recruiting goal in 2018 by about 6,500 recruits. A strong economy and an increasing pool of recruit candidates who require a waiver to enlist add to the Army's recruitment troubles. Mental health issues, obesity, and other medical issues have become barriers that disqualify recruits from enlisting. For those who are eligible, they complete a training period called Initial Entry Training (IET). After finishing IET, many soldiers do not finish their first-term service obligation. This research continues the research conducted by Speten (2018) on post-IET attrition, with the added benefit of having medical data available in the Person-event Data Environment (PDE), a secure, virtual environment with a database that provides information on manpower, service, personnel, and medical data. Currently, no research has been conducted that uses detailed medical information to predict post-IET attrition. To estimate the expected number of soldiers who attrite at a specific time post-IET and prior to the end of their first-term obligation, we construct survival tree models using time-varying and time-constant covariates. We find several medical covariates that are important in forecasting attrition including dental readiness and hearing readiness. The effectiveness of the models is assessed on independent test sets. They perform well in predicting expected number of attrition, but not in predicting individual soldier attrition.This compilation includes a reproduction of the 2019 Worldwide Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community.For the first time in 13 years, the Army did not meet its recruiting goal (Dickstein 2018). This failure to recruit qualified personnel is especially dire in a time when threats from Russia and China continue to grow. One issue that continues to threaten the ability to recruit soldiers is the lack of a qualified pool of candidates. Criminal convictions, mental health issues, obesity, and other medical issues have become roadblocks that disqualify young recruits from enlisting. In the past, the Army has relaxed certain standards and has given waivers to enlistees for conduct, aptitude, or minor medical issues. However, in 2019, Secretary of the Army, Mark Esper, mandated that fewer less-qualified recruits that require waivers be accepted into the ranks (Myers 2018). This research identifies the demographic and medical factors that contribute to first term service obligation attrition of enlisted U.S. Army soldiers who complete Initial Entry Training (IET). We develop a predictive survival model using survival analysis to forecast the probability that a soldier will either leave the service through attrition within the first t years into their first term or will continue to serve in the Army past their initial first term obligation. The data we use is stored and analyzed in the Person-Event Data Environment (PDE). The PDE is a remote cloud computer environment where data is stored centrally and accessed safely from verified users. The remote access feature of the database ensures there are no privacy or security breaches involving personal information. The PDE contains millions of records on Department of Defense employees, military personnel, and their family members. All personally identifiable information in the database is absent and each individual is assigned a unique Person Identifier (PID).

Download or read book Organizational and Cultural Causes of Army First Term Attrition written by James V. Marrone and published by . This book was released on 2021-10-05 with total page 106 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The U.S. Army invests significant resources in recruiting, training, and preparing new soldiers. When a soldier does not complete a full contract term, the Army views this as a net loss. The goal of the research summarized in this report is to determine whether organizational factors matter for producing attrition and to generate hypotheses regarding the mechanisms by which organizational factors generate attrition. The authors made use of the random assignment of soldiers to their first battalion to determine whether the "luck of the draw"--The battalion to which the soldier is assigned and the senior noncommissioned officer (NCO) at that battalion -- is directly linked to the observed variation across assignments in eventual first-term outcomes. The authors complemented that analysis with interviews exploring the factors that could be driving differences across units, such as leadership and command culture, availability of soldier supports, management of deployment and training cycles, and installation amenities

Download or read book A Comparison of the FY03 and FY99 First Term Attrition Study Cohorts written by Daniel J. Putka and published by . This book was released on 2005 with total page 88 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An Army cohort was examined from entry through completion of their first term to explore causes, correlates, and strategies to manage attrition.

Download or read book A Comparison of the FY03 and FY99 First Term Attrition Study Cohorts written by and published by DIANE Publishing. This book was released on with total page 83 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book The Optimal Job person Match Case for Attrition Reduction written by Peter Greenston and published by . This book was released on 1997 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The purpose of this research is to illuminate an important interaction between personal characteristics and organizational factors as they affect first-term attrition. This study tests the hypothesis that first-term completion is positively related to predicted performance on the job and estimates the attrition reduction that would accompany the utilization of better methods for assigning recruits to jobs so as to improve their predicted performance. The testing is conducted with the 1991 accession cohort using the U.S. Army Research Institute for the Behavioral and Social Sciences' Enlisted Panel Research Data Base (EPRDB). Regression analysis is used to test for a relationship between attrition behavior and predicted performance on the job, holding other factors constant. This relationship is then applied to estimate the attrition reduction that could be brought about by increased soldier performance through improved job-person matching procedures such as the Enlisted Personnel Allocation System (EPAS).

Download or read book Military Attrition written by Carol R. Schuster and published by DIANE Publishing. This book was released on 1999-04 with total page 84 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: 25,000 enlisted personnel are being separated from the services in their first 6 months, during or shortly after they complete basic training. This report analyzes historical attrition rates for enlisted personnel who serve at least 6 months, but leave military service before completing their first contract terms. It determines (1) the rate and timing of attrition during enlistees' first terms; (2) the extent of DoD's investment in recruiting and training first-term enlistees; (3) reasons for first-term attrition after training; (4) servicemembers' perceptions of quality-of-life factors that contribute to attrition; and (5) actions the services are taking to reduce enlistees' attrition.

Download or read book Analysis of Early Military Attrition Behavior written by Richard J. Buddin and published by Rand Corporation. This book was released on 1984 with total page 71 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Analyzes the influence of preservice experiences and initial military job match on military attrition of first-term enlisted males during their first six months of service (early attrition). The dynamics of attrition behavior are examined in terms of recent firm-specific human capital and job matching models. The determinants of early attrition are compared across services and with those of civilian job separations of young workers. Some of the conclusions drawn are: enlistees with a history of frequent civilian job changes or a recent spell of unemployment are attrition-prone; aspects of the initial military occupational assignment like individual suitability and satisfaction do not significantly influence early attrition; the early attrition rate of nonhigh-school graduates is nearly twice that of graduates even after controlling for previous work experiences, aptitude, and other variables that influence attrition; and older recruits are more attrition-prone than younger recruits.

Download or read book Military Enlistment and Attrition written by John J. Antel and published by . This book was released on 1987 with total page 86 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This report presents a theoretical discussion and empirical analysis of enlistment and first-term attrition. The theoretical discussion gives rise to hypotheses about enlistment and attrition. The enlistment hypotheses take a supply view, treating military service as an alternative to further schooling or to work. The attrition hypotheses are inherently two-sided, considering first the value of enlistment to the individual and the likelihood that he is more prone to disappointment due to poor planning, and second, the value of the individual to the service and the chance that the service's eligibility screens were unable to identify low-productivity prospects. The empirical analysis is directed to the two prime recruiting markets from which the services draw high-quality male enlistees: high school seniors and nonstudent high school graduates. The study estimates sequential probit models for seniors and graduates separately, for both enlistment and six-month attrition and enlistment and 35-month attrition. The model produces estimates of the effect of individual characteristics on enlistment and on attrition, and controls for unobserved factors affecting both outcomes. The findings suggest that a small set of factors can reveal a wide range of attrition risk among enlistees. The factors are senior/graduate status, positive/negative education expectations, stable/unstable civilian employment history, and short/long participation in the Delayed Entry Program.

Download or read book Success of First term Soldiers written by Richard J. Buddin and published by Minnesota Historical Society. This book was released on 2005 with total page 158 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This monograph examines the relationship between recruiting practices and conditions and the first-term success of Army soldiers. Success in the first term is important because recruiting soldiers is expensive. If soldiers fail to complete their first terms, the Army must recruit others to replace them, effectively doubling the cost. This monograph analyzes how current recruiting policies influence the success of first-term soldiers. It also examines how the Army manages first-term soldiers.

Download or read book Impact of the Army Continuing Education System ACES on Soldier Retention and Performance written by Paul J. Sticha and published by . This book was released on 2003 with total page 100 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This evaluation of the Army Continuing Education System (ACES) considered the following programs: (a) Tuition Assistance (TA); (b) Functional Academic Skills Training (FAST; (c) Military Occupational Specialty Improvement Training (MOSIT); (d) Noncommissioned Officer (NCO) Leader Skill Enhancement Courses; and (e) the Armed Forces Classification Test (AFCT). The assessment of the effectiveness of these programs is based on their ability to enhance soldier performance and increase the prospects of promotion, as well as to reduce attrition and increase reenlistment. The evaluation data came from a longitudinal administrative database that tracked a three-year accession cohort over a six-year period and an NCO database including self-reported participation in ACES programs, promotion information, and observed performance ratings. The analysis was designed to separate effects of participant characteristics from the effects of the program, and to control for differences in the opportunity and propensity to participate in ACES. Participation in TA and FAST were associated with an increase in the probability of first term reenlistment FAST participation was also associated with lower first-term attrition. Participation in several ACES programs showed positive effects on measures of performance and promotion potential.

Download or read book Military Attrition written by United States. General Accounting Office and published by . This book was released on 1997 with total page 70 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Attrition in the Military an Issue Needing Management Attention written by United States. General Accounting Office and published by . This book was released on 1980 with total page 56 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Study of First Term Attrition Among Racial Ethnic Minorities in the Navy written by Emilson Espiritu and published by . This book was released on 1997-03-01 with total page 79 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The objective of this study is to gain a better understanding of first-term enlisted attrition among racial/ethnic groups in the Navy. Previous research on attrition is limited with respect to racial or ethnic variables. The study uses a special data base developed by the Defense Manpower Data Center in Monterey, CA. The data base contains the records of over 500,000 male recruits who enlisted in the Navy during fiscal years 1983 through 1992. These people are tracked over a 48-month period to determine rates of first-term attrition. Cross-tabulation and frequency analysis are used to examine attrition rates by race, racial/ethnic group, and ethnicity (including 20 categories). Attrition rates for these groups are also evaluated according to several variables: Armed Forces Qualification Test category; high quality status (a combination of education and aptitude test scores); reasons for separation; and occupational area. The exploratory results reveal several trends between and within racial and ethnic groups, based on the selected variables. The results also confirm that a number of racial or ethnic groups have comparatively low rates of attrition. Further research is recommended to more fully explain underlying reasons for the relatively lower rates of attrition experienced by certain minorities.