Download or read book A Coupling of Extreme Value Theory and Volatility Updating with Value at Risk Estimation in Emerging Markets written by Anthony Seymour and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 21 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This research is aimed at a formal appraisal of recent advancements in stochastic volatility modeling and extreme-value theory to application of value-at-risk computation in particularly volatile markets. Established methods such as historical simulation are prone to underestimating value-at-risk in such developing markets. Two contemporary methods of value-at-risk calculation are tested on a representative portfolio of South African stocks. The first method incorporates extreme value theory. The second model includes both extreme value theory and volatility updating (via GARCH-type modeling). The combined GARCH-type time-series approach and extreme value theory model is found to provide significantly better results than both straightforward historical simulation as well as the extreme value model. In no instance, however, were results on these VaR methods as good as those obtained when the same methods were tested in developed markets.

Download or read book New Econometric Modelling Research written by William N. Toggins and published by Nova Publishers. This book was released on 2008 with total page 240 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Econometric models are used by economists to find standard relationships among aspects of the macroeconomy and use those relationships to predict the effects of certain events (like government policies) on inflation, unemployment, growth, etc... Econometric models generally have a short-run aggregate supply component with fixed prices, and aggregate demand portion, and a potential output component. Two famous econometric models are the Federal Reserve Bank econometric model and the DRI-WEFA model. This book presents new and important research in this field.

Download or read book The New Hybrid Value at Risk Approach Based on the Extreme Value Theory written by Nikola Radivojevic and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 24 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this paper the authors introduce a new hybrid approach based on the Extreme Value Theory (EVT) to joint estimation of Value at Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) for high quantiles of return distributions. The approach is suitable for measuring market risk in the emerging markets. It is designed to capture the empirical features of returns with emerging markets, such as leptokurtosis, asymmetry, autocorrelation and heteroscedasticity.

Download or read book Risk Management Strategic Thinking and Leadership in the Financial Services Industry written by Hasan Dinçer and published by Springer. This book was released on 2016-12-19 with total page 380 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book presents a broad overview of risk management in the banking industry, with a special focus on strategic thinking and decision-making. It reveals the broader context behind decision models and approaches to risk management in the financial industry, linking the regulatory landscape for capital management and risk to strategic thinking, together with behavioral and cultural assessments.

Download or read book ARCH Models for Financial Applications written by Evdokia Xekalaki and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2010-03-18 with total page 558 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedastic (ARCH) processes are used in finance to model asset price volatility over time. This book introduces both the theory and applications of ARCH models and provides the basic theoretical and empirical background, before proceeding to more advanced issues and applications. The Authors provide coverage of the recent developments in ARCH modelling which can be implemented using econometric software, model construction, fitting and forecasting and model evaluation and selection. Key Features: Presents a comprehensive overview of both the theory and the practical applications of ARCH, an increasingly popular financial modelling technique. Assumes no prior knowledge of ARCH models; the basics such as model construction are introduced, before proceeding to more complex applications such as value-at-risk, option pricing and model evaluation. Uses empirical examples to demonstrate how the recent developments in ARCH can be implemented. Provides step-by-step instructive examples, using econometric software, such as Econometric Views and the G@RCH module for the Ox software package, used in Estimating and Forecasting ARCH Models. Accompanied by a CD-ROM containing links to the software as well as the datasets used in the examples. Aimed at readers wishing to gain an aptitude in the applications of financial econometric modelling with a focus on practical implementation, via applications to real data and via examples worked with econometrics packages.

Download or read book Multinational Finance Journal written by and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 332 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Financial Entrepreneurship for Economic Growth in Emerging Nations written by Woldie, Atsede and published by IGI Global. This book was released on 2017-07-13 with total page 322 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Entrepreneurial endeavors are a pivotal driving force behind the modern business sector. These enterprises play a significant role in the development and sustainability of a nation’s economy. Financial Entrepreneurship for Economic Growth in Emerging Nations is an innovative reference source for the latest scholarly research on strategies and techniques for financing small and medium-sized enterprises in the context of developing nations. Including a range of pertinent topics such as microinsurance, risk management, and advertising, this book is ideal for managers, academics, professionals, graduate students, and practitioners interested in the dynamics of financial entrepreneurship.

Download or read book Value at Risk Models for Volatile Emerging Markets Equity Portfolios written by Manolis G. Kavussanos and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper investigates the issue of market risk quantification for emerging and developed market equity portfolios. A very wide spectrum of popular and widely used in practice Value at Risk (VaR) models are evaluated and compared with Extreme Value Theory (EVT) and adaptive filtered models, during normal, crises, and post-crises periods. The results are interesting and indicate that despite the documented differences between emerging and developed markets, the most successful VaR models are common for both asset classes. Furthermore, in the case of the (fatter tailed) emerging market equity portfolios, most VaR models turn out to yield conservative risk forecasts, in contrast to developed market equity portfolios, where most models underestimate the realized VaR. VaR estimation during periods of financial turmoil seems to be a difficult task, particularly in the case of emerging markets and especially for the higher loss quantiles. VaR models seem to be affected less by crises periods in the case of developed markets. The performance of the parametric (non parametric) VaR models improves (deteriorates) during post-crises periods due to the inclusion of extreme events in the estimation sample.

Download or read book Extreme Values and Financial Risk written by Saralees Nadarajah and published by MDPI. This book was released on 2019-01-15 with total page 115 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is a printed edition of the Special Issue "Extreme Values and Financial Risk" that was published in JRFM

Download or read book Value at Risk in Emerging Markets written by Helder Centeno and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 84 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This study focuses on the relative performance of three Value-at-Risk (VaR) estimation methodologies. The daily stock market index returns of twelve different emerging markets are used for the empirical analysis. In addition to the well-known methodologies, such as the historical simulation and GARCH-based ones, the extreme value theory (EVT) is also used to estimate the daily VaR. In this paper, we focus on EVT because it studies the non-linear estimation of the tails and we expect to find many extreme events when analysing the return distributions in these twelve emerging markets. We focus on the negative extreme events rather than on the positive ones. The daily VaR is forecasted at three different quantile levels: 90%, 97.5%, 99.9%; and competing methodologies are back-tested accordingly. The results indicate that the historical simulation and GARCH-based methodologies work better at lower quantile levels than they do at higher quantile levels, while VaR estimated using EVT is more accurate at higher quantiles. EVT provides better information about extreme events, especially when financial distress occurs in these economies.

Download or read book Financial Modeling written by Hercules Vladimirou and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 392 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Extreme Events in Finance written by François Michel Longin and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 601 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "Extreme Events in Finance: A Handbook of Extreme Value Theory and its Applications features a combination of the theory, methods, and applications of extreme value theory (EVT) in finance as well as a practical understanding of market behavior including both ordinary and extraordinary conditions"--

Download or read book Extreme Value Theory and Applications written by J. Galambos and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-12-01 with total page 526 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: It appears that we live in an age of disasters: the mighty Missis sippi and Missouri flood millions of acres, earthquakes hit Tokyo and California, airplanes crash due to mechanical failure and the seemingly ever increasing wind speeds make the storms more and more frightening. While all these may seem to be unexpected phenomena to the man on the street, they are actually happening according to well defined rules of science known as extreme value theory. We know that records must be broken in the future, so if a flood design is based on the worst case of the past then we are not really prepared against floods. Materials will fail due to fatigue, so if the body of an aircraft looks fine to the naked eye, it might still suddenly fail if the aircraft has been in operation over an extended period of time. Our theory has by now penetrated the so cial sciences, the medical profession, economics and even astronomy. We believe that our field has come of age. In or~er to fully utilize the great progress in the theory of extremes and its ever increasing acceptance in practice, an international conference was organized in which equal weight was given to theory and practice. This book is Volume I of the Proceedings of this conference. In selecting the papers for Volume lour guide was to have authoritative works with a large variety of coverage of both theory and practice.

Download or read book Extreme Values in Finance Telecommunications and the Environment written by Barbel Finkenstadt and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2003-07-28 with total page 424 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Because of its potential to ...predict the unpredictable,... extreme value theory (EVT) and methodology is currently receiving a great deal of attention from statistical and mathematical researchers. This book brings together world-recognized authorities in their respective fields to provide expository chapters on the applications, use, and theory of extreme values in the areas of finance, insurance, the environment, and telecommunications. The comprehensive introductory chapter by Richard Smith ensures a high level of cohesion for this volume.

Download or read book Extreme Value Theory and its Applications to Financial Risk Management written by G. Tsevas and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 8 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The phenomenon of high volatility in financial markets stemming from the increased complexity of financial instruments traded, as well as the evidence of losses due to natural and man-made catastrophes, highlight the need for sophisticated risk management practices. The analysis concerning the statistical distribution of extreme events (e.g. stock market crashes), is considered to be important for modern risk management. In this review paper, an introduction to the basic results of Extreme Value Theory (EVT) is made. More specifically, the methodological basis of EVT for quantile estimation is introduced. Moreover, EVT methods for estimating conditional probabilities concerning tail events, given that we incur a loss beyond a certain threshold u, are presented. Finally, the application of the theory is demonstrated by considering an example using equity return data.

Download or read book Extreme Value Methods with Applications to Finance written by Serguei Y. Novak and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2011-12-20 with total page 397 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Extreme value theory (EVT) deals with extreme (rare) events, which are sometimes reported as outliers. Certain textbooks encourage readers to remove outliers-in other words, to correct reality if it does not fit the model. Recognizing that any model is only an approximation of reality, statisticians are eager to extract information about unknown di

Download or read book Extreme Value Theory and Copula Theory written by Jia Liu and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Deregulation of the energy market and surging trading activities have made the energy markets even more volatile in recent years. Under such circumstances, it becomes increasingly important to assess the probability of rare and extreme price movement in the risk management of energy futures. Similar to other financial time series, energy futures exhibit time varying volatility and fat tails. An appropriate risk measurement of energy futures should be able to capture these two features of the returns. In the first portion of this dissertation, we use the conditional Extreme Value Theory model to estimate Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) for long and short trading positions in the energy markets. The statistical tests on the backtests show that this approach provides a significant improvement over the widely used Normal distribution based VaR and ES models. In the second portion of this dissertation, we extend our analysis from a single security to a portfolio of energy futures. In recent years, commodity futures have gained tremendous popularity as many investors believe they provide much needed diversification to their portfolios. In order to properly account for any diversification benefits, we employ a time-varying conditional bivariate copula approach to model the dependence structure between energy futures. In contrast to previous studies on the same subject, we introduce fundamental supply and demand factors into the copula models to study the dependence structure between energy futures. We find that energy futures are more likely to move together during down markets than up markets. In the third part of this dissertation, we extend our study of bivariate copula models to multivariate copula theory. We employ a pair-copula approach to estimate VaR and ES of a portfolio consisting of energy futures, the S & P 500 index and the US Dollar index. Our empirical results show that although the pair copula approach does not offer any addedadvantage in VaR and ES estimation over a long backtest horizon, it provides much moreaccurate estimates of risk during the period of high co-dependence among assets after the recent financial crisis.