Download or read book A Comparison of Machine Learning Model Validation Schemes for Non stationary Time Series Data written by Matthias Schnaubelt and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Machine learning is increasingly applied to time series data, as it constitutes an attractive alternative to forecasts based on traditional time series models. For independent and identically distributed observations, cross-validation is the prevalent scheme for estimating out-of-sample performance in both model selection and assessment. For time series data, however, it is unclear whether forwardvalidation schemes, i.e., schemes that keep the temporal order of observations, should be preferred. In this paper, we perform a comprehensive empirical study of eight common validation schemes. We introduce a study design that perturbs global stationarity by introducing a slow evolution of the underlying data-generating process. Our results demonstrate that, even for relatively small perturbations, commonly used cross-validation schemes often yield estimates with the largest bias and variance, and forward-validation schemes yield better estimates of the out-of-sample error. We provide an interpretation of these results in terms of an additional evolution-induced bias and the sample-size dependent estimation error. Using a large-scale financial data set, we demonstrate the practical significance in a replication study of a statistical arbitrage problem. We conclude with some general guidelines on the selection of suitable validation schemes for time series data.

Download or read book Deep Learning for Time Series Forecasting written by Jason Brownlee and published by Machine Learning Mastery. This book was released on 2018-08-30 with total page 572 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Deep learning methods offer a lot of promise for time series forecasting, such as the automatic learning of temporal dependence and the automatic handling of temporal structures like trends and seasonality. With clear explanations, standard Python libraries, and step-by-step tutorial lessons you’ll discover how to develop deep learning models for your own time series forecasting projects.

Download or read book Machine Learning for Factor Investing written by Guillaume Coqueret and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2023-08-08 with total page 358 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: a detailed presentation of the key machine learning tools use in finance a large scale coding tutorial with easily reproducible examples realistic applications on a large publicly available dataset all the key ingredients to perform a full portfolio backtest

Download or read book Modern Statistics with R written by Måns Thulin and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2024-08-20 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The past decades have transformed the world of statistical data analysis, with new methods, new types of data, and new computational tools. Modern Statistics with R introduces you to key parts of this modern statistical toolkit. It teaches you: Data wrangling - importing, formatting, reshaping, merging, and filtering data in R. Exploratory data analysis - using visualisations and multivariate techniques to explore datasets. Statistical inference - modern methods for testing hypotheses and computing confidence intervals. Predictive modelling - regression models and machine learning methods for prediction, classification, and forecasting. Simulation - using simulation techniques for sample size computations and evaluations of statistical methods. Ethics in statistics - ethical issues and good statistical practice. R programming - writing code that is fast, readable, and (hopefully!) free from bugs. No prior programming experience is necessary. Clear explanations and examples are provided to accommodate readers at all levels of familiarity with statistical principles and coding practices. A basic understanding of probability theory can enhance comprehension of certain concepts discussed within this book. In addition to plenty of examples, the book includes more than 200 exercises, with fully worked solutions available at: www.modernstatisticswithr.com.

Download or read book Continual Machine Learning for Non stationary Data Analysis written by Honglin Li and published by . This book was released on 2022 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Machine Learning and Principles and Practice of Knowledge Discovery in Databases written by Michael Kamp and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2022-02-18 with total page 601 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This two-volume set constitutes the refereed proceedings of the workshops which complemented the 21th Joint European Conference on Machine Learning and Knowledge Discovery in Databases, ECML PKDD, held in September 2021. Due to the COVID-19 pandemic the conference and workshops were held online. The 104 papers were thoroughly reviewed and selected from 180 papers submited for the workshops. This two-volume set includes the proceedings of the following workshops:Workshop on Advances in Interpretable Machine Learning and Artificial Intelligence (AIMLAI 2021)Workshop on Parallel, Distributed and Federated Learning (PDFL 2021)Workshop on Graph Embedding and Mining (GEM 2021)Workshop on Machine Learning for Irregular Time-series (ML4ITS 2021)Workshop on IoT, Edge, and Mobile for Embedded Machine Learning (ITEM 2021)Workshop on eXplainable Knowledge Discovery in Data Mining (XKDD 2021)Workshop on Bias and Fairness in AI (BIAS 2021)Workshop on Workshop on Active Inference (IWAI 2021)Workshop on Machine Learning for Cybersecurity (MLCS 2021)Workshop on Machine Learning in Software Engineering (MLiSE 2021)Workshop on MIning Data for financial applications (MIDAS 2021)Sixth Workshop on Data Science for Social Good (SoGood 2021)Workshop on Machine Learning for Pharma and Healthcare Applications (PharML 2021)Second Workshop on Evaluation and Experimental Design in Data Mining and Machine Learning (EDML 2020)Workshop on Machine Learning for Buildings Energy Management (MLBEM 2021)

Download or read book Introduction to Time Series and Forecasting written by Peter J. Brockwell and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-03-14 with total page 429 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Some of the key mathematical results are stated without proof in order to make the underlying theory acccessible to a wider audience. The book assumes a knowledge only of basic calculus, matrix algebra, and elementary statistics. The emphasis is on methods and the analysis of data sets. The logic and tools of model-building for stationary and non-stationary time series are developed in detail and numerous exercises, many of which make use of the included computer package, provide the reader with ample opportunity to develop skills in this area. The core of the book covers stationary processes, ARMA and ARIMA processes, multivariate time series and state-space models, with an optional chapter on spectral analysis. Additional topics include harmonic regression, the Burg and Hannan-Rissanen algorithms, unit roots, regression with ARMA errors, structural models, the EM algorithm, generalized state-space models with applications to time series of count data, exponential smoothing, the Holt-Winters and ARAR forecasting algorithms, transfer function models and intervention analysis. Brief introducitons are also given to cointegration and to non-linear, continuous-time and long-memory models. The time series package included in the back of the book is a slightly modified version of the package ITSM, published separately as ITSM for Windows, by Springer-Verlag, 1994. It does not handle such large data sets as ITSM for Windows, but like the latter, runs on IBM-PC compatible computers under either DOS or Windows (version 3.1 or later). The programs are all menu-driven so that the reader can immediately apply the techniques in the book to time series data, with a minimal investment of time in the computational and algorithmic aspects of the analysis.

Download or read book Common Errors in Statistics and How to Avoid Them written by Phillip I. Good and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2011-09-20 with total page 231 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Praise for the Second Edition "All statistics students and teachers will find in this book a friendly and intelligentguide to . . . applied statistics in practice." —Journal of Applied Statistics ". . . a very engaging and valuable book for all who use statistics in any setting." —CHOICE ". . . a concise guide to the basics of statistics, replete with examples . . . a valuablereference for more advanced statisticians as well." —MAA Reviews Now in its Third Edition, the highly readable Common Errors in Statistics (and How to Avoid Them) continues to serve as a thorough and straightforward discussion of basic statistical methods, presentations, approaches, and modeling techniques. Further enriched with new examples and counterexamples from the latest research as well as added coverage of relevant topics, this new edition of the benchmark book addresses popular mistakes often made in data collection and provides an indispensable guide to accurate statistical analysis and reporting. The authors' emphasis on careful practice, combined with a focus on the development of solutions, reveals the true value of statistics when applied correctly in any area of research. The Third Edition has been considerably expanded and revised to include: A new chapter on data quality assessment A new chapter on correlated data An expanded chapter on data analysis covering categorical and ordinal data, continuous measurements, and time-to-event data, including sections on factorial and crossover designs Revamped exercises with a stronger emphasis on solutions An extended chapter on report preparation New sections on factor analysis as well as Poisson and negative binomial regression Providing valuable, up-to-date information in the same user-friendly format as its predecessor, Common Errors in Statistics (and How to Avoid Them), Third Edition is an excellent book for students and professionals in industry, government, medicine, and the social sciences.

Download or read book Regression and Time Series Model Selection written by Allan D. R. McQuarrie and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 1998 with total page 479 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This important book describes procedures for selecting a model from a large set of competing statistical models. It includes model selection techniques for univariate and multivariate regression models, univariate and multivariate autoregressive models, nonparametric (including wavelets) and semiparametric regression models, and quasi-likelihood and robust regression models. Information-based model selection criteria are discussed, and small sample and asymptotic properties are presented. The book also provides examples and large scale simulation studies comparing the performances of information-based model selection criteria, bootstrapping, and cross-validation selection methods over a wide range of models.

Download or read book Introduction to Time Series Analysis and Forecasting written by Douglas C. Montgomery and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2015-04-21 with total page 670 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Praise for the First Edition "...[t]he book is great for readers who need to apply the methods and models presented but have little background in mathematics and statistics." -MAA Reviews Thoroughly updated throughout, Introduction to Time Series Analysis and Forecasting, Second Edition presents the underlying theories of time series analysis that are needed to analyze time-oriented data and construct real-world short- to medium-term statistical forecasts. Authored by highly-experienced academics and professionals in engineering statistics, the Second Edition features discussions on both popular and modern time series methodologies as well as an introduction to Bayesian methods in forecasting. Introduction to Time Series Analysis and Forecasting, Second Edition also includes: Over 300 exercises from diverse disciplines including health care, environmental studies, engineering, and finance More than 50 programming algorithms using JMP®, SAS®, and R that illustrate the theory and practicality of forecasting techniques in the context of time-oriented data New material on frequency domain and spatial temporal data analysis Expanded coverage of the variogram and spectrum with applications as well as transfer and intervention model functions A supplementary website featuring PowerPoint® slides, data sets, and select solutions to the problems Introduction to Time Series Analysis and Forecasting, Second Edition is an ideal textbook upper-undergraduate and graduate-levels courses in forecasting and time series. The book is also an excellent reference for practitioners and researchers who need to model and analyze time series data to generate forecasts.

Download or read book Personalized Predictive Modeling in Type 1 Diabetes written by Eleni I. Georga and published by Academic Press. This book was released on 2017-12-11 with total page 253 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Personalized Predictive Modeling in Diabetes features state-of-the-art methodologies and algorithmic approaches which have been applied to predictive modeling of glucose concentration, ranging from simple autoregressive models of the CGM time series to multivariate nonlinear regression techniques of machine learning. Developments in the field have been analyzed with respect to: (i) feature set (univariate or multivariate), (ii) regression technique (linear or non-linear), (iii) learning mechanism (batch or sequential), (iv) development and testing procedure and (v) scaling properties. In addition, simulation models of meal-derived glucose absorption and insulin dynamics and kinetics are covered, as an integral part of glucose predictive models. This book will help engineers and clinicians to: select a regression technique which can capture both linear and non-linear dynamics in glucose metabolism in diabetes, and which exhibits good generalization performance under stationary and non-stationary conditions; ensure the scalability of the optimization algorithm (learning mechanism) with respect to the size of the dataset, provided that multiple days of patient monitoring are needed to obtain a reliable predictive model; select a features set which efficiently represents both spatial and temporal dependencies between the input variables and the glucose concentration; select simulation models of subcutaneous insulin absorption and meal absorption; identify an appropriate validation procedure, and identify realistic performance measures. Describes fundamentals of modeling techniques as applied to glucose control Covers model selection process and model validation Offers computer code on a companion website to show implementation of models and algorithms Features the latest developments in the field of diabetes predictive modeling

Download or read book Data Science and Machine Learning written by Dirk P. Kroese and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2019-11-20 with total page 538 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Focuses on mathematical understanding Presentation is self-contained, accessible, and comprehensive Full color throughout Extensive list of exercises and worked-out examples Many concrete algorithms with actual code

Download or read book Introduction to Time Series Forecasting With Python written by Jason Brownlee and published by Machine Learning Mastery. This book was released on 2017-02-16 with total page 359 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Time series forecasting is different from other machine learning problems. The key difference is the fixed sequence of observations and the constraints and additional structure this provides. In this Ebook, finally cut through the math and specialized methods for time series forecasting. Using clear explanations, standard Python libraries and step-by-step tutorials you will discover how to load and prepare data, evaluate model skill, and implement forecasting models for time series data.

Download or read book Automated Machine Learning written by Frank Hutter and published by Springer. This book was released on 2019-05-17 with total page 223 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This open access book presents the first comprehensive overview of general methods in Automated Machine Learning (AutoML), collects descriptions of existing systems based on these methods, and discusses the first series of international challenges of AutoML systems. The recent success of commercial ML applications and the rapid growth of the field has created a high demand for off-the-shelf ML methods that can be used easily and without expert knowledge. However, many of the recent machine learning successes crucially rely on human experts, who manually select appropriate ML architectures (deep learning architectures or more traditional ML workflows) and their hyperparameters. To overcome this problem, the field of AutoML targets a progressive automation of machine learning, based on principles from optimization and machine learning itself. This book serves as a point of entry into this quickly-developing field for researchers and advanced students alike, as well as providing a reference for practitioners aiming to use AutoML in their work.

Download or read book Machine Learning Refined written by Jeremy Watt and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2020-01-09 with total page 597 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An intuitive approach to machine learning covering key concepts, real-world applications, and practical Python coding exercises.

Download or read book Personalized Machine Learning written by Julian McAuley and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2022-02-03 with total page 338 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Every day we interact with machine learning systems offering individualized predictions for our entertainment, social connections, purchases, or health. These involve several modalities of data, from sequences of clicks to text, images, and social interactions. This book introduces common principles and methods that underpin the design of personalized predictive models for a variety of settings and modalities. The book begins by revising 'traditional' machine learning models, focusing on adapting them to settings involving user data, then presents techniques based on advanced principles such as matrix factorization, deep learning, and generative modeling, and concludes with a detailed study of the consequences and risks of deploying personalized predictive systems. A series of case studies in domains ranging from e-commerce to health plus hands-on projects and code examples will give readers understanding and experience with large-scale real-world datasets and the ability to design models and systems for a wide range of applications.

Download or read book Data Validation and Selection for Modern Machine Learning written by Zifan Liu (Ph.D.) and published by . This book was released on 2024 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Machine learning (ML) has revolutionized a wide range of fields with its capacity to learn from data and make informed decisions. Recognizing the critical role of well-curated data in the advancement of modern ML, the data-centric ML community emphasizes the importance of careful data preparation and strategic selection to ensure both data quality and their relevance to target tasks. However, the prevailing approach for data validation and selection employed in practice remains largely manual or ad-hoc, while automated methods often fall short in either effectiveness or efficiency, thus limiting their practical application. In this dissertation, we revisit the current methodologies for automated data validation and selection, aiming to propose new techniques with improved performance and practicality. In the first part of this dissertation, we study the verification and discovery of denial constraints, a general formalism that can express a wide range of quality rules for tabular data. Verification entails detecting whether a given denial constraint holds on a specific dataset, while discovery focuses on the automated mining of valid constraints. The current state-of-the-art methods for denial constraint verification and discovery are inefficient on large-scale datasets due to their quadratic complexity relative to the dataset size. In addition, existing works on denial constraint discovery rely on a time-consuming blocking phase of building intermediate data structures, further limiting their practicality. To address the limitations of prior works, we make a dual contribution. First, we introduce a novel verification algorithm that demonstrates near-linear complexity relative to dataset size by connecting denial constraint verification to orthogonal range search, showing a theoretical improvement over prior works. Second, we present an anytime algorithm for denial constraint discovery by combining our verification algorithm with lattice searches, eliminating the need for the blocking structure-building phase in existing solutions. Our verification algorithm achieves up to 84 times faster compared to state-of-the-art approaches. In addition, our discovery algorithm is able to start providing valid constraints within the initial 10 minutes of execution, while existing methods are blocked for over 48 hours. In the second part, we focus on defending against data corruption in ML pipelines. Data corruption is an impediment to modern ML applications as they can severely bias the learned model and also lead to invalid inferences. Data corruption in practice can be highly diverse, ranging from random noise, systematic errors to adversarial attacks, which are often beyond the scope of standard error detection methods. We present a simple framework to safeguard against data corruption during both training and deployment of ML models over tabular data. In the training stage, our framework identifies and removes corrupted data points from the training data to avoid obtaining a biased model. In the deployment stage, our framework flags, in an online manner, corrupted query points to a trained ML model that due to noise will result in incorrect predictions. To detect corrupted data, we develop a self-supervised deep learning model for mixed-type tabular data. To minimize the burden of deployment, learning the model does not require any human-labeled data. Our framework is designed as a plugin that can increase the robustness of any ML pipeline. We show that our framework consistently safeguards against corrupted data during both training and deployment of various models ranging from SVMs to neural networks, beating a diverse array of competing methods that span from data quality validation models to robust outlier-detection models. In addition, to promote the understanding of the worst-case effects that data corruption can have on learning performance, we present an information-theoretic analysis of robust mean estimation under coordinate-level corruption. Our analysis shows that leveraging the dependencies between features is the key to accurate mean estimation for corrupted data. In the last part, our attention turns to task-specific data selection. The goal is to select training data for specific tasks from a massive and heterogeneous pool of candidate data, guided by a small set of representative examples from the target task. We highlight two critical properties for the selected data: distribution alignment and diversity, which are not adequately satisfied by previous works. Aligning the distribution of the training data with query data expected during service time ensures that the model is customized for the intended usage. On the other hand, sufficient diversity allows the model to learn more knowledge and avoid overfitting. We present a framework that formulates task-specific data selection as an optimization problem based on optimal transport, a notion that captures the distance between two distributions. We add a regularization term to the optimal transport formulation to provide a smooth tradeoff between distribution alignment and diversity. In addition, we incorporate kernel density estimation into the regularizer to reduce the negative effects of near-duplicates in the candidate pool. Finally, we connect our optimization problem to nearest neighbor search and design efficient algorithms to compute the optimal solution based on approximate nearest neighbor search techniques. Our approach achieves an improvement of up to 5 points in F1 scores for targeted instruction tuning compared to the state-of-the-art method and demonstrates robustness against near-duplicates.