Download or read book A Central Fiscal Stabilization Capacity for the Euro Area written by Mr.Nathaniel G Arnold and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-03-26 with total page 57 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This note outlines a concrete proposal for a euro area central fiscal capacity (CFC) that could help smooth both country-specific and common shocks. Specifically, it proposes a macroeconomic stabilization fund financed by annual contributions from countries that are used to build up assets in good times and make transfers to countries in bad times, as well as a borrowing capacity in case an exceptionally large shock exhausts the fund’s assets. To address moral hazard risks, transfers from the CFC—beyond a country’s own net contributions—would be conditional on compliance with the EU fiscal rules. The note also discusses several features aimed at avoiding permanent transfers between countries and making the CFC function as automatically as possible—to limit the scope for disputes over its operation—both of which are important points to make it politically acceptable.
Download or read book Reforming the EU Fiscal Framework written by Mr. Nathaniel G Arnold and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2022-09-05 with total page 49 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The EU’s fiscal framework needs reform. While existing fiscal rules have had some impact in constraining deficits, they did not prevent deficits and debt ratios that have threatened the stability of the monetary union in the past and that continue to create vulnerabilities today. The framework also has a poor track record at managing trade-offs between containing fiscal risks and stabilizing output. Finally, the framework does not provide sufficient tools for EU-wide stabilization. This was most visible during the decade following the euro area sovereign debt crisis, when structurally low real interest rates stretched the policy tools of the European Central Bank (ECB), leading to a persistent undershooting of its inflation target. This paper proposes a new framework based on risk-based EU-level fiscal rules, strengthened national institutions, and a central fiscal capacity. First, risk-based EU-level fiscal rules would link the speed and ambition of fiscal consolidation to the level and horizon of fiscal risks, as identified by debt sustainability analysis (DSA) using a common methodology developed by a new and independent European Fiscal Council (EFC). The 3 percent deficit and 60 percent debt reference values would remain. Second, all member countries would be required to enact medium-term fiscal frameworks consistent with the EU-level rules—that is, to ensure convergence over the medium-term to an overall fiscal balance anchor by setting expenditure ceilings. Independent national fiscal councils (NFCs) would have a much stronger role to strengthen checks and balances at the national level (including undertaking or endorsing macroeconomic projections and performing DSAs to assess fiscal risks). The European Commission (EC) would continue to play its key surveil¬lance role as articulated in the Maastricht Treaty and the EFC would be the center of a peer network of fiscal councils. Third, building on the recent experience with the NextGenerationEU (NGEU), an EU fiscal capacity (FCEU) would improve euro area macroeconomic stabilization and allow the provision of common EU public goods—a task that has become more urgent given the green transition and common security concerns. Central to the proposal is a mutually reinforcing relationship between EU rules and national-level imple¬mentation. Strengthening implementation requires both better national ownership of the rules and their application and greater congruence of national-level frameworks with EU-level rules. The former can only be achieved by rules that convincingly balance the needs of members with the avoidance of negative externali¬ties across members. This argues for a risk-based approach—the first pillar of our proposal. The latter requires a stronger role for significantly upgraded national level frameworks—the second pillar of our proposal.
Download or read book A Fiscal Capacity for the Euro Area written by Pablo Burriel and published by . This book was released on 2020 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: After the financial and economic crisis in Europe, a broad consensus has emerged that a stronger fiscal dimension may be needed to complete the architecture of Economic and Monetary Union (EMU). This paper analyses the performance of interregional transfers in existing fiscal-federal systems, notably in Austria, Belgium, Germany, Spain and the United States, and aims to draw lessons for the design of a euro area fiscal instrument. The empirical risk-sharing analysis in this paper suggests that effective cross-regional stabilisation of asymmetric shocks tends to work via direct cash transfers to households, such as unemployment benefits, which are financed out of cyclical central government taxes and social security contributions. This would suggest that a euro area budgetary instrument for stabilisation should be designed as a tool that enhances the automatic stabilisation capacity in the single currency area. At the same time, it seems important that a prospective central stabilisation instrument for the euro area would be integrated in an overall fiscal policy framework that ensures proper incentives for national policymakers.
Download or read book A Central Fiscal Capacity in the EU Policy Mix written by Marco Buti and published by . This book was released on 2022 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A central fiscal capacity (CFC) in the European Union (EU) can in principle perform three roles: provide cyclical stabilisation, support national reforms and investment, and deliver European Public Goods. We build a simple aggregate demand-aggregate supply model, where a CFC depends on shocks and degrees of compliance with common fiscal rules. This analytical framework allows us to examine the policy implications of the three options for a CFC. Based on both the theoretical analysis and the EU’s experience in handling the global financial crisis and the pandemic, we show that a CFC would improve policy efficiency by focusing on stabilisation in the event of negative demand shocks and on boosting potential output in the event of negative supply shocks. In the current stagflationary environment, the provision of European Public Goods appears to be the most promising avenue. The need to calibrate the central interventions in relation to the typology of shocks implies that a CFC cannot be put on an automatic pilot. CFC calls for a reform of the euro-area institutional set up, including the creation of a European Minister for Economic Affairs in charge of the "vertical coordination" of the EU’s and national budgets and the calibration of the centralised expenditures.
Download or read book Euro Area Policies written by International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-07-20 with total page 86 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Overall the resilience of large euro area banks has improved, but important vulnerabilities remain. Capital buffers are in aggregate sizeable relative to immediate threats, but some banks are especially vulnerable to credit risk and others to market risks, including a substantial rise in risk premia. The banking system as a whole has ample liquidity, against a backdrop of ECB support. At a structural level, low profitability is found in many banks across all business models, despite improving conjunctural conditions. The interconnectedness analysis shows that strong buffers are effective in dampening both vulnerabilities and onward transmission. Risks to financial stability relate mainly to tighter financial conditions, weaker growth, and policy and geopolitical uncertainties. The withdrawal of the United Kingdom from the EU (Brexit) could potentially disrupt financial market and services, and thus the wider economy. Also, policy reversals could hurt debt sustainability and test the cohesion of policy making in the union.
Download or read book One Scheme Fits All written by Roel M. W. J. Beetsma and published by . This book was released on 2021 with total page 47 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper proposes a central fiscal capacity for the euro area that generates transfers in response to eurozone, country, and region-specific shocks. The main novelty of this fiscal capacity is that it allows a joint response to these three types of shock within a single scheme, thus policymakers can decide on the stabilisation of one shock versus the others according to political and economic considerations. Our analysis, based on NUTS3 regional data over the last two decades, shows that -- with a limited central budget and a low risk of moral hazard -- substantial stabilisation could have been achieved in response to the eurozone and regional shocks, while country-specific shocks were less severe and therefore needed less stabilisation. Aggregating the transfers over the three levels, they are of the order of magnitude of the EU's Recovery and Resilience Facility.
Download or read book Strengthening the Euro Area written by Mr.John C Bluedorn and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-06-17 with total page 31 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Cross-country differences in economic resilience—in an economy’s ability to withstand and adjust to shocks—remain significant in the euro area. In part, the differences reflect the lack of a national nominal exchange rate as a mechanism to adjust to shocks. The IMF staff has argued that union-wide architectural changes such as the banking union, the capital markets union, and a central fiscal capacity can help foster greater international risk sharing. Yet even these changes cannot insure against all shocks. National policies thus have a vital role to play. This IMF staff discussion note analyzes how national structural policies can help euro area countries better deal with economic shocks. Using a mix of empirical and modeling approaches, the note finds that growth-enhancing reforms to labor and product market regulations, tailored to country-specific circumstances, would help individual euro area economies weather adverse shocks. Higher-quality insolvency regimes are associated with more efficient factor reallocation following a shock. The note also finds that structural and cyclical policies interact. Greater rigidities make economies more fragile, putting a higher burden on fiscal policy. This is especially true for members of a monetary union. Countries should build fiscal space in good times and tackle rigidities, reducing their need for countercyclical policies in bad times while making countercyclical policies more effective when deployed.
Download or read book A Central Fiscal Stabilization Capacity for the Euro Area written by Mr.Nathaniel G Arnold and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-03-26 with total page 57 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This note outlines a concrete proposal for a euro area CFC that could help smooth both country-specific and common shocks. Specifically, it proposes a macroeconomic stabilization fund financed by annual contributions from countries used to build up assets in good times and make transfers to countries in bad times, as well as a borrowing capacity in case large or persistent shocks exhaust the fund’s assets. The note also discusses several features aimed at avoiding permanent transfers between countries and making the CFC function as automatically as possible—to limit the scope for disputes over its operation—both of which are important points to make it politically acceptable.
Download or read book Optimal Fiscal monetary Policy Mix and Central Fiscal Capacity in the Euro Area written by Pierre Warny and published by . This book was released on 2023 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Global Financial Stability Report April 2012 written by International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-04-18 with total page 94 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The April 2012 Global Financial Stability Report assesses changes in risks to financial stability over the past six months, focusing on sovereign vulnerabilities, risks stemming from private sector deleveraging, and assessing the continued resilience of emerging markets. The report probes the implications of recent reforms in the financial system for market perception of safe assets, and investigates the growing public and private costs of increased longevity risk from aging populations.
Download or read book Designing a Permanent EU wide Stabilization Facility written by Roel M. W. J. Beetsma and published by . This book was released on 2020 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: While the EU recovery plan provides a useful step in alleviating the economic effects of the coronavirus crisis and achieving further European integration, a permanent fiscal stabilization capacity dealing with major crises is still missing. Such a EU-wide stabilization function would be in accordance with the subsidiarity principle, enshrined in the Treaty of Maastricht, as the risk-sharing that it provides can only be conducted at the supranational level. We envisage a mechanism to semi-automatically respond to region- and country-specific shocks via a central fiscal stabilization fund (CFSF). A simple model incorporating hysteresis, cross-border externalities and moral hazard, is deployed to illustrate the optimal responses of the CFSF to these shocks. A well-designed CFSF has the potential to improving welfare not only in crisis-hit member countries, but also in the union as a whole.
Download or read book A Banking Union for the Euro Area written by Rishi Goyal and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-02-12 with total page 31 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The SDN elaborates the case for, and the design of, a banking union for the euro area. It discusses the benefits and costs of a banking union, presents a steady state view of the banking union, elaborates difficult transition issues, and briefly discusses broader EU issues. As such, it assesses current plans and provides advice. It is accompanied by three background technical notes that analyze in depth the various elements of the banking union: a single supervisory framework; a single resolution and common safety net; and urgent issues related to repair of weak banks in Europe.
Download or read book A Fiscal Capacity for the Euro Area written by Alessandro D'Alfonso and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 30 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The idea to create a 'fiscal capacity' for the euro area was launched in the wake of the sovereign debt crisis, with the recognition that weaknesses in the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) had worsened the crisis. Although the debate has lost some momentum as euro-area countries have stepped back from the acute phase of the crisis, the EU institutions continue to work on designing a framework to bolster EMU, looking in particular at automatic stabilisers. The European Parliament's Committees on Budgets and Economic and Monetary Affairs are currently preparing a report on a budgetary capacity for the euro area.
Download or read book Ireland written by International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2022-07-07 with total page 66 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Ireland has considerably strengthened financial sector regulation and supervision since the 2016 FSAP, aided by the ECB/SSM, and is working with European and international regulators to strengthen oversight of the large market-based finance (MBF) sector. This strengthening is evidenced by a successful navigation through the challenges of Brexit and the pandemic. Despite global headwinds, Ireland is exiting the pandemic with strong economic growth and a highly capitalized and liquid banking system. The financial system has grown rapidly and in complexity, especially after Brexit, and Ireland has become a European base for large financial groups. The MBF sector has grown to the second largest in Europe, with global interlinkages.
Download or read book Global Financial Stability Report April 2013 written by International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-04-17 with total page 160 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Global Financial Stability Report examines current risks facing the global financial system and policy actions that may mitigate these. It analyzes the key challenges facing financial and nonfinancial firms as they continue to repair their balance sheets. Chapter 2 takes a closer look at whether sovereign credit default swaps markets are good indicators of sovereign credit risk. Chapter 3 examines unconventional monetary policy in some depth, including the policies pursued by the Federal Reserve, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, the European Central Bank, and the U.S. Federal Reserve.
Download or read book Managing the Sovereign Bank Nexus written by Mr.Giovanni Dell'Ariccia and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-09-07 with total page 54 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper reviews empirical and theoretical work on the links between banks and their governments (the bank-sovereign nexus). How significant is this nexus? What do we know about it? To what extent is it a source of concern? What is the role of policy intervention? The paper concludes with a review of recent policy proposals.
Download or read book How Loose How Tight A Measure of Monetary and Fiscal Stance for the Euro Area written by Nicoletta Batini and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2020-06-05 with total page 75 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper builds a model-based dynamic monetary and fiscal conditions index (DMFCI) and uses it to examine the evolution of the joint stance of monetary and fiscal policies in the euro area (EA) and in its three largest member countries over the period 2007-2018. The index is based on the relative impacts of monetary and fiscal policy on demand using actual and simulated data from rich estimated models featuring also financial intermediaries and long-term government debt. The analysis highlights a short-lived fiscal expansion in the aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis, followed by a quick tightening, with monetary policy left to be the “only game in town” after 2013. Individual countries’ DMFCIs show that national policy stances did not always mirror the evolution of the aggregate stance at the EA level, due to heterogeneity in the fiscal stance.